South China Sea Dynamics

and Regional Trends

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to International Conference on
Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship 2019
German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance,
Asian German Foundation and the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation
Regional Programme Political Dialogue in Asia in Singapore
Banyan Tree Hotel, Bangkok, December 2-4, 2018
 1. Does the South China Sea issue
exemplify a dilemma for ASEAN unity?
 32nd ASEAN Leaders’ Summit
Singapore, April 2018
• Zero Draft of Chairman’s Statement contained seven points
on the South China Sea
• four of the points were subject to 16 interventions by members
including seven from Cambodia or nearly 44% of the total
• After discussions among ASEAN senior officials and ministers
the Zero Draft of the Chairman’s Statement was revised
• Six of the original seven points in the Zero Draft were deleted
in their entirety
 Guidelines to Implement the DOC
• “ASEAN will continue its current practice of consulting
among themselves before meeting with China.”
• Original draft (August 2005)
• After twenty-one successive drafts:
• “The Parties to the DOC will continue to promote
dialogue and consultations in accordance with the
spirit of the DOC.”
• Final wording (July 2011)
• China and ten ASEAN members (not ASEAN)
 Single Draft South China Sea
Code of Conduct Negotiating Text
• A compilation of inputs from nine of eleven parties
• Text from the COC framework in black, consolidated text in blue, parties’ input
referred to in green
• 19 A4 sized pages long
• Overlapping and conflicting submissions
• Military activities
• Oil and gas exploration and development
• A living document
• Three readings
• Processes, guidelines and notification protocols to be added
 Country Unilateral Joint Total
Brunei (BN) 3 18 21
Cambodia (CA) 2 17 19
China (CH) 16 20 36
Indonesia (ID) 10 19 29
Laos 0 0 0
Malaysia (MY) 19 6 25
Myanmar 0 0 0
Philippines (PH) 6 17 23
Singapore (SG) 3 18 21
Thailand (TH) 10 6 16
Vietnam (VN) 12 14 26
Sub-total 81 135 216
 2. What does it mean in the greater
realm of the ASEAN-China relationship?
 ASEAN-China Special Foreign Ministers
Meeting, Kunming, June 14, 2016
We noted that 2016 is a milestone for ASEAN-China relations
as it marks the 25th Anniversary of ASEAN-China dialogue
relations. We look forward to working together with China to
bring ASEAN-China cooperation to the next level. But we also
cannot ignore what is happening in the South China Sea as it is
an important issue in the relations and cooperation between
ASEAN and China. This is the context in which this Special
ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held today.
Agreed ASEAN Press Statement not issued
ASEAN-China Consultations on DOC/COC

Summit

Ministers

Senior Officials

Joint Working Group

Technical Group
 China Seeks To Bind ASEAN
d. The Parties shall establish a notification mechanism
on military activities, and to notify each other of major
military activities if deemed necessary. The Parties shall
not hold joint military exercises with countries from
outside the region, unless the parties concerned are
notified beforehand and express no objection; [CH]
 China Seeks To Bind ASEAN

3(e) Oil and gas exploration and development in

disputed waters shall be carried out through
coordination and cooperation among the littoral states
to the South China Sea, and shall not be conducted in
cooperation with companies from countries outside the
region; [CH]
3. Would it make sense for the Thai chair to
galvanise ASEAN behind this issue as a non-
claimant party?

4. Could the Thai Chair cooperate closely

on the issue with Vietnam which is one of
the more forward leaning claimants and
the next ASEAN Chair after Thailand?
 Implement Declaration on
Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea
Article 5 - Build Trust and Confidence
a. holding dialogues and exchange of views as appropriate
between their defense and military officials;
b. ensuring just and humane treatment of all persons who are
either in danger or in distress;
c. notifying, on a voluntary basis, other Parties concerned of
any impending joint/combined military exercise; and
d. exchanging, on a voluntary basis, relevant information.
 Implement Declaration on
Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea
Article 6 - Cooperative Activities
• a. marine environmental protection;
• b. marine scientific research;
• c. safety of navigation and communication at sea;
• d. search and rescue operation; and
• e. combating transnational crime, including but not limited
to trafficking in illicit drugs, piracy and armed robbery at sea,
and illegal traffic in arms. [illegal unregulated unreported fishing]
 Three-Year Planning Framework, 2019-21
• China’s Premier Li Keqiang:
• “It is China’s hope the COC consultation will be finished in three
years time to that it will contribute to enduring peace and stability
in the South China Seas”
• Remarks in Singapore, November 13, 2018
• Philippines as ASEAN Dialogue Coordinator, 2018-21
• President Duterte’s term in office 30 June 2016-30 June 2022
• ASEAN Chair
• Singapore (2018), Thailand (2019), Vietnam (2020), Brunei (2021)
 ASEAN-centric Institutions
Draw Up Processes, Guidelines and Protocols
to Prevent, Manage, Resolve Disputes
• ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)
• ASEAN Navy Chiefs’ Meeting – naval encounters/cooperation
• ASEAN Air Chiefs Conference – air encounters
• ASEAN Regional Forum
• Strengthen role of ARF Chair (preventive diplomay/conflict
resolution)
• Friends of the Chair
• ASEAN Unit
• Inter-sessional Support Group on Confidence Building and
Preventive Diplomacy
• ADMM Plus
5. What are the prospects?
 Six Major Issues Remain to be Resolved
1. Geographic scope and disputed areas
2. Military activities, exercises, and militarization
3. Cooperation among Maritime Law Enforcement
Agencies
4. Dispute resolution
5. Legal status of the Code of Conduct
6. Role of third parties
 South China Sea Dynamics
and Regional Trends

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to International Conference on
Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship 2019
German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance,
Asian German Foundation and the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation
Regional Programme Political Dialogue in Asia in Singapore
Banyan Tree Hotel, Bangkok, December 2-4, 2018