HANOI UNIVERSITY

Faculty of Management and Tourism

---------------------------------------------

HANOI UNIVERSITY
Faculty of Management and Tourism
---------------------------------------------
INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
PROJECT
HANOI UNIVERSITY
An investment portfolio of Vinh
Faculty Hoan Corporation
of Management (VHC) and
and Tourism
INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
TNG Investment---------------------------------------------
and Trading Joint Stock Company (TNG)
PROJECT

An investment portfolio of Vinh HoanUNIVERSITY

HANOI Corporation (VHC) and
INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO
TNG Investment and Trading Joint Stock MANAGEMENT
Company (TNG)
PROJECT
Faculty of Management and Tourism
Lecturer: Ms. Hoang Thi Huong Giang
---------------------------------------------
An investment portfolio of Vinh Hoan Corporation (VHC) and
INVESTMENT
TNG Investment andAND PORTFOLIO
Students:
Trading MANAGEMENT
Joint Stock Company (TNG)
PROJECT
Bui Tran Khanh Chi
HANOI UNIVERSITY 1504000008
Le Phuong Diep 1504000013
An investment portfolio of Vinh
Faculty Hoan Corporation
of Management (VHC) and
and Tourism
Nguyen Thi Thanh KieuMANAGEMENT
INVESTMENT AND Joint Stock Company1504000040
PORTFOLIO
TNG Investment---------------------------------------------
and Trading (TNG)
DoPROJECT
Minh Phuong 1504000073
Nguyen Hoang Yen 1404040130
An investment portfolio of Vinh
HANOI HoanUNIVERSITY
Corporation (VHC) and
INVESTMENT AND Class: Tut 2
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
TNG Investment and Trading Joint Stock Company (TNG)
Faculty of Management
PROJECT
Submission date: Novemberand
30th, Tourism
2018
---------------------------------------------
An investment portfolio of Vinh Hoan Corporation (VHC) and
Lecturer: Mrs. Hoang Thi Huong Giang
TNG Investment and
INVESTMENT AND Trading Joint Stock
PORTFOLIO Company (TNG)
MANAGEMENT
Students:
PROJECT
HANOI UNIVERSITY
Bui Tran Khanh Chi 1504000008
An investment portfolio of Vinh
Faculty Hoan Corporation
iof Management (VHC) and
and Tourism
Le Phuong Diep
TNG Investment and
INVESTMENT AND Trading Joint Stock
PORTFOLIO Company1504000013
MANAGEMENT (TNG)
---------------------------------------------
Nguyen Thi Thanh Kieu 1504000040
PROJECT
 TABLE OF CONTENT
1. ECONOMY ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 1
2. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: ...................................................................................................... 1
2.1. Recent important news:........................................................................................................ 2
2.2. Industry analysis: ................................................................................................................. 2
2.3. Industry structure and performance (Five-force Model): ................................................... 4
3. COMPANY SELECTION AND JUSTIFICATIONS: .......................................................... 5
3.1. Vinh Hoan Corporation (VHC) ............................................................................................ 6
3.2. TNG Investment and Trading Joint Stock Company ............................................................ 7
4. PORTFOLIO FORMATION:.............................................................................................. 8
5. INVESTMENT REPORT AND SUMMARY OF PROFIT OR LOSS: .......................... 8
6. CONCLUSION AND COMMENT ON EXPERIENCE GAINED .................................. 9
APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................. 10
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 12

ii
 1. ECONOMY ANALYSIS
Regarding the global economy, according to the data provided by Statistics Times in
2018, the nominal GDP of the US, the world’s leading economy, is 20,412.87 billion dollar,
followed by that of China (14,092.51 billion dollar). The figure for Germany, the United
Kingdom and France amounted to 4,211.64, 2,936.29 and 2,925.10 billion dollar respectively. As
published by the World Bank, the global economy as a whole is anticipated to expand by USD
6.5 trillion between 2017 and 2019 and developing economies like Vietnam’s are also likely to
experience upward development. In other words, Vietnam’s GDP in the first 9 months of 2018
witnessed an increase of 6.98% compared to that of the same period last year, being the highest
figure of any 9-month period since 2011. GDP generated from agriculture, forestry and fishery
increased by 3.65%, comprising 8.8% of the overall growth rate. This growth rate is also the
highest one that this sector has ever achieved since 2012 (Baomoi.com, 2018). Additionally,
inflation rate in Vietnam is expected to remain under 4%, and its deposit interest rate is also
forecast to remain constant in the next few months (cafef.vn, 2018). Hence, it can be concluded
that Vietnam is experiencing the expansion stage of the business cycle.
Besides, since WTO has forecast the World Trade Outlook Indicator, an indicator
designed to provide information on trends in global trade, to be 100.3 in 2018, international
trading activities in the near future is expected to expand even faster than its current pace. In
other words, corporations specializing in exports and imports may have potential for growth.
Moreover, the value of some major currencies is anticipated to witness fluctuation. For
example, the US dollar may be gradually appreciated against other currencies at the end of 2018
because of the possible increase to 3% of yield to maturity in bond market (Baomoi.com, 2018).
It can be considered as an advantage for exporting firms which target this market. This is
especially true for those from emerging nations like Vietnam because their currencies will
depreciate, and their goods will become less expensive in foreign markets.
Furthermore, many countries are making endeavor to boost global trade by introducing some
special privileged policies. For instance, the US government has decided to reduce import taxes
and Chinese government gives a drop to import tariffs imposed on their foreign sellers.
In conclusion, it appears to be a wise decision to invest in exports industries given the
current stage of the global and national economy.
2. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS:

1
 2.1. Recent important news:
- As part of the escalation of the ongoing trade war between China and the United States, from
September 24th 2018, each country levied heavier taxes on each other’s new exported
products (Nhat, 2018).
- At the beginning of 2017, China surpassed America to be the second biggest pangasius fish
importer of Vietnam. Additionally, in May, China’s Ministry of Finance introduced a new
import tax reduction policy for seafood products of countries which are members of WTO,
including Vietnam (Mai, 2018).
- On September 14th, The Food Safety and Inspection Service of the United States completed
its inspection and officially announced that Vietnam catfishes, including pangasius, were
qualified to be exported to this market (Thao, 2018).
- In 2018, Vinh Hoan Corp. and Bien Dong Corp. were 2 exceptions in the issue of fluctuating
anti-dumping duty imposed by the US government because they benefited from special tax
rates of $0/kg and $0.19/kg respectively (Uoc, 2018).
- The fact that Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) is expected to be approved by
both parties by the end of 2018 (Hoàng, T., 2018) and the CPTPP Agreement (Comprehensive
and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) is effective on December 30th,
2018, which was recently approved by Vietnam National Assembly (Túc, M., 2018), will
result in significantly positive influence on textiles and apparel industry in particular.
 According to these recent news, it seems rational to invest in exports industries at this time,
particularly seafood and textiles & apparel industry because they have the highest potential
to gain abnormal profits by taking advantage of the aforementioned macro changes.
2.2. Industry analysis:
Industry Seafood Textiles and Apparel
1. Sensitivity As seafood is a necessity, the sales and Textiles and apparel industry belongs
to business profits of the seafood industry have little to the Consumer goods and services,
cycle sensitivity to the state of the economy, which is a cyclical industry with
leading to the fact that it is a defensive moderate sensitivity to the state of the
industry (Bodie, Kane and Marcus, economy (Bodie, Kane and Marcus,
2014). 2014).
2. Sector Since Vietnam economy is in the Cyclical industries like Textiles and

2
 Rotation expansion state while defensive apparel are theoretically expected to
industries are expected to be the best outperform others in the current
performers during contraction or expansion stage of Vietnam economy
recession (Bodie, Kane and Marcus, (Bodie, Kane and Marcus, 2014).
2014), it is theoretically not ideal to
invest in this type of market at this time.
3. Industry From 1996 to 2000: START-UP phase. From 1986 to 1997: START-UP
life cycles + From 1996 to 1998, as seafood was a phase.
newborn industry and didn’t receive In the beginning, textiles and apparel
adequate attention from Vietnamese, firms faced challenges from the
sales growth rate rose slowly and even shortage of input supplies, lack of
dropped, ranging from 5% to 22%. experiences in managing
+ From 1998 onwards, seafood manufacturing activities, obsolete
industry’s growth rate enjoyed technology and machines, etc.
exponential rise from 5% in 1998 to However, with governmental decrees
19% in 1999 before reaching a peak of and investment laws being enacted at
52% in 2000 thanks to the massive the right time, textiles firms started to
adoption of advanced technology in grow exponentially, with significant
farming and production. increase in exports from $0.1 billion in
(marketingnongnghiep.lamnghenong.co 1986 to $1.15 billion in 1997 (FPTS,
m.vn, 2018). 2018).
From 2001 to 2007: From 1998 to 2014:
CONSOLIDATION phase CONSOLIDATION phase
+ After suffering from a sharp decrease + With the execution of Vietnam –
of 32% in 2001, the growth rate of USA Trade Agreement in 2001,
seafood industry experienced a period of Vietnam textiles industry grew at its
stability. highest average speed of 15% per year
+ During the 7 years, the figure (Nguyệt, 2014) and the export turnover
fluctuated wildly around 15%, with the rate also witnessed a continuous
lowest point at 7.2% in 2004 and the increase of around 20% from year to
highest point at 22.2% in 2006. year (FPTS, 2018).
(marketingnongnghiep.lamnghenong.co + Despite being badly affected from
m.vn, 2018). the financial crisis in 2008 and the

3
 European debt crisis in 2012, Vietnam
textiles exports continued to grow at
an average of 18% per year, being 6%
higher than the GDP growth rate in the
same period (FPTS, 2018).
From 2008 to present: MATURITY From 2015 to present: MATURITY
phase stage
+ The 2007-2008 global economic crisis + Under the influence of Brexit and the
directly hit Vietnam seafood industry, withdrawal of USA from TPP in 2016,
causing its growth rate plummeting to - Vietnam textiles and apparel industry
5.7%. showed some signs of slowing down
+ After that, during the rapid recovery of and stabilizing. From 2015 to 2016,
the Vietnam economy, total seafood the industry’s exports increased by a
exports increased by 24.1% in 2010. modest 5% (Cảnh, 2017). A year later,
(marketingnongnghiep.lamnghenong.co the figure quickly recovered with a
m.vn, 2018). growth of 12,73%, equalling $31
+ Apart from 2 noticeable drops in 2012 billion of sales (Bộ Công Thương,
(0.3%) due to the EMS epidemic in 2017).
shrimps that caused millions to die, and + From 2018 onwards, Vietnam
in 2015 (-16%) because of a drop in textiles and apparel exports is
shrimp prices and the appreciation of the forecasted to grow at an average of
USD, which led to less demand and 10% to 12% and gain approximately
fiercer competition in foreign markets, $34.4 billion to $35 billion annually.
the industry’s growth rate experienced This, therefore, makes this sector the
no expansion faster than that of the second largest contributor to the total
whole economy (vasep.com.vn, 2018). foreign currency income of the whole
economy. (Linh, T., 2018).
2.3. Industry structure and performance (Five-force Model):
• Seafood industry:

4
• Textiles & apparel industry:

3. COMPANY SELECTION AND JUSTIFICATIONS:

Firstly, the recent depreciation of VND over USD will make exports from Vietnam more
competitive and appear cheaper to the American. This will also increase demand for exports.
Secondly, as mentioned in the above section, Vinh Hoan Corp. and Bien Dong Corp. both

5
enjoyed privileged anti-dumping duty by US government; however, Bien Dong Corp. is an
unlisted company. Consequently, we would like to choose the stock of Vinh Hoan Corp.
Regarding textiles & apparel industry, out of three companies that witnessed highest sales
growth rate in the reported period (TCM, GIL and TNG) (Cafef.vn, 2018), TNG has the highest
beta of 1.85. Therefore, choosing this firm would help us diversify our portfolio as the previously
selected stocks – VHC has a low beta of 0.68.
3.1. Vinh Hoan Corporation (VHC)
Vinh Hoan Corporation, one of the leading firms in Vietnam Seafood Industry, has been
listed on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) since 2007. The company’s business includes
seafood processing, retailing and exporting. VHC’s main markets are Singapore, Canada,
Australia, Hong Kong, China and The US.
To begin with, we will evaluate VHC’s sensitivity to business cycle. Firstly, the sales of
seafood is the sales of necessity goods. Secondly, the company's Degree of Operating Leverage
(DOL) in 2017 was 1.68, which was higher than 1. Lastly, as for financial leverage, from 2014 to
2017, the ratio of total debt over total asset of Vinh Hoan Corp. fluctuated from 42% to 58%,
which were quite safe for the company as the burden of interest payment is not extreme. Overall,
the three factors mentioned above indicate that Vinh Hoan Corp. is sensitive to the business
cycle yet only on a low level.
Regarding the firm’s financial performance, in 2017, VHC acquired 100% stake in Thanh
Binh Dong Thap Fisheries JSC, enhancing its capacity by 20% at the end of 2017 and by another
11% in 2018 to reach capacity of 1,000 tons materials/day. With the competitive advantage of
having high self-supply ratio of about 65%, the selling prices of VHC’s products were not
deeply affected when stock prices for catfishes skyrocketed to over VND 30,000/kg – the highest
level over the last 20 years (VTV News, 2018). Furthermore, as recent announced by Mrs Vi Tam
- VHC’s CEO, the company plans to invest VND 375 billion in farming operations in Long An,
with a view to raise its self-supply ratio to 70% by the end of 2019 (Ramsden, 2018). According
to the company’s financial statement, VHC’s performance has shown positive results over the
three-year period from 2015 to 2017. The revenue rose from approximately VND 5,500 billion to
more than VND 8,000 billion. ROA ratio grew by 5% (from 7% to 12%) and ROE ratio
increased significantly by 6% and reach 21% at the end of 2017. Besides, ROS ratio also
experienced the same trend, grew from 5% to 7.4%, implying that VHC has been effectively

6
utilizing sales to generate profits. As for firm’s liquidity, VHC’s current ratio grew from 1.57 to
1.8 during the reported period. In addition, an increase in VHC’s EPS from VND 3,300 in 2015
to VND 6,500 in 2017 can be considered as a good signal to both existing and potential
stockholders. In conclusion, we consider buying shares of VHC stock a reasonable, attractive and
potential investment.
3.2. TNG Investment and Trading Joint Stock Company
TNG was established in 1979 and has been listed on HNX since 2007. Core business
activities of TNG include garment exporting, industrial embroidery, along with apparel exporting
and cotton sheets and PE bag production. The company has a variety of partners, namely
Columbia, Decathlon, TCP, Tom tailor, Nike, Adidas, Zara, etc. and different markets, including
USA, EU, Canada & Mexico, etc. TNG gains a significant amount of profits with an expected
growth of 10-20 million dollar per year in these targeted markets (Hương, M., 2018).
Regarding the company’s sensitivity to business cycle, firstly, TNG targets at high-
income customers and their products are usually of high prices. Secondly, the DOL of the firm in
2017 was 1.3, which was greater than 1. Finally, the financial leverage accounted for 6.14% in
2017. Consequently, TNG Corp. is sensitive to the state of the economy at moderate to high
level.
In terms of financial performance, TNG has been an attractive target for foreign
investors, particularly Asam Viet Nam and Tundra Vietnam fund. In August 2018, Tundra
Vietnam Fund raised its proportion of stockholding in TNG to over 5% (Đào, V., 2018). Two
months later, the company also signed a contract for an investment amounting to approximately
VND 200 billion with Korean investors. In the stock market, TNG’s stock has constantly been
one of the most noticeable ones thanks to the firm’s positive financial performance (Đào, V.,
2018). Net income of TNG Corp. rose from VND 65 billion in 2014 to VND 115 billion in 2017
and its sales enjoyed a 32% growth from VND 1,887 billion in 2016 to VND 2,489 billion in
2017 (Hương, M., 2018). Moreover, an increase in inventory from VND 450 billion in 2016 to
VND 616 billion in 2017 (Anon, 2018) also implied TNG’s high capability of producing new
goods. However, it also meant that operating cash flows were reduced. TNG’s ROA ratio
experienced an increase from 4.92% in 2014 to 5.65% in 2017, which was a result of growing
profit margin, more long term investment in fixed assets, particularly factories expansion, and
higher budget for marketing activities. Despite a drop of 8.93% from 2014 to 2017, ROCE ratio

7
of TNG Corp. still accounted for 24.21% in 2017, making the enterprise a leverage firm with
more debt than equity. However, EPS ratio grew from 2648 VND/share in 2016 to 3058
VND/share in 2017. In conclusion, the indicators analyzed above has proved TNG’s satisfactory
performance that gives the firm a better chance of being able to gain significant profits in the
future.
4. PORTFOLIO FORMATION:
Upon the decision to buy shares of VHC stock and TNG stock, we would like to calculate
the weight of each share in our risky portfolio. Using past daily prices in the period from August
30th 2016 to August 30th 2018, we have derived the following data:

Mean return Standard deviation Variance Correlation coefficient Covariance

VHC 0.07% 2.48% 0.06% 0.0821 0.0000473

TNG 0.02% 2.32% 0.05%

Based on the formula for optimal weight of asset in risky portfolio, with a risk-free rate
equals to 4.25% as quoted by SBV (State Bank of Vietnam), we have come up with an
investment consisting of 45.3% of VHC stock and 54.7% of TNG stock. The opportunities set
given various proportion allocated to each stock is illustrated by the efficient frontier (Figure 1).
5. INVESTMENT REPORT AND SUMMARY OF PROFIT OR LOSS:
We executed our transactions via Bao Viet Securities with a commission fee of 0.15% of
total transaction. With initial equity of VND 100 million, after paying 0.15% fee (equalling VND
150,000), we had VND 99,850,000 left to invest. Based on the optimal weights calculated
previously, we spent VND 45,232,050 on VHC’s stocks and the remaining VND 54,617,950 on
TNG’s stocks. We placed our first market buy order on September 4th 2018, buying 588 shares
of VHC (at VND 76,900/share) and 4,476 shares of TNG (at VND 12,200/share). On November
15th, the investment was closed out by selling the aforementioned number of shares at VND
101,600 per VHC share and VND 19,300 per TNG share. Transaction fees of 0.15% and income
taxes of 1% were also required. After deducting all taxes and fees, we came up with the new
equity as is presented in the table below:

8
 VHC TNG

Equity before tax & fee 588 * 101,600 = VND 59,740,800 4476*19,300 =VND 86,386,800

Transaction fee (0.15%) 89,611 129,580

Income tax (1%) 597,408 863,868

Equity after tax & fee 59,053,780 85,393,351

Total new equity VND 144,447,132

With the new equity of VND 144,447,132, the proceed gained from sale equalled
VND44,597,132, which also meant a 44.66% profit.
6. CONCLUSION AND COMMENT ON EXPERIENCE GAINED
According to the fact that our risky portfolio represents the entire investment fund, we
would like to use Sharpe ratio as a measure for portfolio performance evaluation. Calculation
Sharpe ratio of the market is -1.07 and that of our portfolio is -0.79, which indicates that our
portfolio outperforms the market (Figure 3). This is the result of: firstly, an investment decision
that takes advantage of recent important news that favors exports industries (CPTPP, China-
United States trade war, anti-dumping duty,...), particularly seafood and textiles & apparel
industry; and secondly, an appropriate fundamental analysis that leads us to choose the leading
companies in those two industries with positive trend in stock prices and outstanding business
performances over the reported period.
After conducting this investment, we have gained clear insights into how to form a risky
portfolio. However, since the investment period is too short (1.5 months), the currently high
profit gained cannot ensure positive rate of return in the long term due to high volatility of stock
market and its unexpected reactions to the future implementation of CPTPP.

9
 APPENDICES
Appendix A: List of formulas
1. Degree of Operating Leverage
Percentage change in profits
DOL =
Percentage change in sales
2. Excel Worksheet formulas:
Items Formulas Explanation
Standard = STDEV(Number 1, number 2,…) “Number 1, number 2,…” stand for
deviation range of expected daily return
Variance = (standard deviation)2
Correlation = CORREL(array 1, array 2) “array 1, array 2” stand for range of
coefficient of expected daily return of two assets
portfolio
Covariance = COVAR(array 1, array 2) “array 1, array 2” stand for range of
of portfolio expected daily return of two assets
Mean return =AVERAGE(Number 1, number 2,…) “Number 1, number 2,…” stand for
range of expected daily return
3. Returns and risks
E(rp ) = w1 E(r1 ) + w2 E(r2 )

σp = √w12 σ12 + w22 σ22 + 2w1 w2 (ρσ1 σ2 )

4. Weights of the optimal risky portfolio

[E(r1 ) − rf )]σ22 − [E(r2 ) − rf ]cov(r1 , r2 )
w1 =
[E(r1 ) − rf ]σ22 + [E(r2 ) − rf ]σ12 − [E(r1 ) − rf + E(r2 ) − rf ]cov(r1 , r2 )
w2 = 1 − w1
5. Expected daily return:
Pt − Pt−1
Time t: today’s share price
Pt−1
Time t-1: yesterday’s share price
6. Sharpe Ratio:
E(rP ) − rf
σP

10
Appendix B: List of figures
1. Figure 1: Portfolio efficient frontier graph

Portfolio efficient frontier (VHC & TNG)

0.070%

0.060%
Expected return

0.050%

0.040%

0.030%

0.020%

0.010%

0.000%
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%
Standard deviation

2. Figure 2: Capital allocation in optimal risky portfolio

3. Figure 3: Sharpe ration comparison in portfolio’s performance evaluation

11
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