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RESEARCH

WEEKLY
AGRI REPORT
Spices Zooms On Festive Demand!

18th Oct 2010 to 23rd Oct 2010

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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
18th Oct to 23rd Oct 2010 Agri Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

JEERA REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

JEERA DROPS ON SUBDUED DEMAND Weak Demand

Jeera November contract dropped Rs 115 and settled at Rs 13080 a kg due Fresh Buying
to sluggish export demand and hopes of a rise in acreage in the up-coming
sowing season. Export demand is not encouraging. But any improvement
in export demand may push the prices up. The total arrivals of Jeera were Weekly Pivots
around 1100 bags were reported at Unjha Mandi against 1000 bags from
the previous day. The NCDEX Jeera futures traded on a negative note SCRIPT JEERA
during last week's trading session. Extended fresh buying supported the R4 14485
prices. Reduced arrivals at spot market also added to the upside. However, R3 14000
prices failed to sustained the gains and fell drastically on profit booking at R2 13525
higher levels and ended the week in red. The NCDEX Jeera futures are
R1 13260
expected to trade slightly positive during next week's trading session.
Short covering may support the prices. However, weakening export P 13045
demand despite of lower prices in international market is likely to weigh on S1 12775
sentiments. Good soil moisture for next season sowing may induce farmers S2 12565
to sow more area under Jeera crop. S3 12086
S4 11606

Weekly Chart

Last week Jeera was in consolidation and was neither able to sustain at higher level nor at lower level. For the next week
resistance in Jeera is found at 13500 and support at 12500.

Strategy
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera
sustains below the level of 12500 then we can expect a level of 12050, and if it sustains above 13500 we can see the level of
13900.
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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
18th Oct to 23rd Oct 2010 Agri Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

GUARSEED REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

GUAR DECLINES ON PROFIT BOOKING Profit Booking

Guar futures touched a high of Rs. 2110 per qtl level, however, settled High Arrival Expectation
range bound towards the end due to profit booking. The demand for
Guar seed and gum at lower prices levels still persist which is
supporting Guar prices. Supply tightness would continue to rule the Weekly Pivots
markets till the fresh arrivals of good quality crop gain momentum.
SCRIPT GUARSEED
Fresh arrivals would peak up only by the end of October. Till then Guar
R4 2478
prices may remain firm. The Guar seed crop is going to be a bumper
crop and hence the upside would be capped once the fresh arrivals gain R3 2337
momentum from major guar growing areas. November onwards Guar R2 2196
prices may again decline on expectations of a bumper crop in 2010-11 R1 2130
which is currently estimated to be around 150 lakh bags (15 lakh P 2055
tones). Pace of arrivals and overseas demand would also influence the
S1 1989
prices. After gaining more than 3.8% in the last 2 days, Guar futures
S2 1914
may remain sideways in the intraday due to lack of fresh fundamentals.
S3 1773
In the short term Guar prices are expected to trade firm as supply
tightness may continue till the fresh arrivals gain momentum. In the S4 1632
medium term (November onwards), the price trend will depend on the
pace of arrivals of Guar crop, demand from the overseas market and
stocks of Guar with the stockists.
Weekly Chart

Last week we saw some good buying coming in Guar seed and it sustained at higher levels for most part of the week, but some
profit booking came on the last day of the week. For the next week resistance in Guar seed is found at 2120 and support at
1980.
Strategy
For next week traders should go for buying on lower level strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 2120 we can see the
level of 2170, and below 1980 it can touch the level of 1930.
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 Weekly Report Agri
18th OctWeekly Commodity
to 23rd Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

SOYABEAN REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

SOYBEAN TUMBLES ON PROFIT BOOKING Profit Booking

NCDEX November Soybean futures closed lower on profit taking after Better Export Demand
sharp rise in the last 3-4 days. Spread between NCDEX November and
December contract is Rs 27 against previous day of Rs 37.50 per 100 Weekly Pivots
Kg. CBOT November Soybean futures ended higher at $ 11.88/bushels
SCRIPT SOYABEAN
on Thursday, up 12.00 cents/bushel as compared to previous close.
R4 2626
CBOT December Soybean meal futures ended higher at $ 331.70/ton
R3 2484
on Thursday, up $2.70/tonne as compared to previous close. For
R2 2342
Intraday, Soybean prices are expected to trade higher in anticipation of
R1 2265
better export demand of Soy meal and there is news that the virus
P 2200
attack on Soybean crop in Madhya Pradesh, which may damage 1% of
S1 2123
total crop. In the medium term, prices are expected to slip again on S2 2058
account of fresh arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, which is a major S3 1916
producing state of soybean and it contributes more than 50% of its S4 1774
total production. Existing better carry over stock this year as compared
to last year are in favour of bears.

Weekly Chart

Last week Soybean breaks the important resistance of 2200 but was not able to sustain near it and even closed below the level.
For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2310 and support at 2100.

Strategy
Soybean is in a consolidation phase on charts and one should look for buying opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean sustains
above the level of 2310 we can see the level of 2365, and on the down side if it sustains below the level of 2100 we can see
Soybean at 2035 level.
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 Weekly Report Agri
18th OctWeekly Commodity
to 23rd Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

CHANA REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

CHANA GAINS ON FESTIVE DEMAND Festive Demand

Demand for Chana dal has improved in the past few weeks; however, Higher Sowing Acreage
weakness in other Pulses is capping the gains at higher levels. Festive
demand ahead may keep Chana prices firm only in the short term.
According to the market sources, MSP of Chana which was set at Rs. Weekly Pivots
1760 per qtl in the last year may increase to Rs. 2100 per qtl. This will SCRIPT CHANA
support the Chana prices as, no farmer will sell their produce below Rs. R4 2673
2100 per qtl. Overall fundamentals are not supportive for the prices to R3 2567
rise in the medium term (November) as India is going to harvest record
R2 2461
pulses crop in Kharif 2010. The acreage under pulses has expanded by a
R1 2420
whopping 20 lakh hectares from last year. Spread between October and
P 2355
November contract is at Rs. 46 as compared to Rs.50 per qtl. In the short
term, Chana prices may trade sideways with positive bias on S1 2314
expectations of better demand ahead of festive seasons. However, S2 2249
November onwards, Chana futures are expected to remain under S3 2143
pressure on the reports of higher sowing acreage under Kharif Pulses. In S4 2037
the long term (December onwards) Chana prices may take cues from the
prices of other pulses and sowing progress of Chana in the major
growing areas.
Weekly Chart

Last week we saw good buying coming in Chana at lower levels and it even closed near to its weekly high. For the coming
week Chana has resistance at 2450 and support at 2280.

Strategy
Overall trend of Chana is of consolidation and one should go for buying on lower level strategy in it. For the coming week if
Chana sustains above 2450 level we can see it at 2500 and below 2280 we can expect the level of 2245.
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 Weekly Report Agri
18th OctWeekly Commodity
to 23rd Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Weekly Pivots

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

JEERA 14026.67 13546.67 13298.33 13066.67 12818.33 12586.67 12106.67

TURMERIC 16856.00 15990.00 15634.00 15124.00 14768.00 14258.00 13392.00

PEPPER 19969.00 19285.00 18946.00 18601.00 18262.00 17917.00 17233.00

SOYABEAN 2483.67 2341.67 2264.33 2199.67 2122.33 2057.67 1915.67

GUARGUM 5275.67 5021.67 4883.33 4767.67 4629.33 4513.67 4259.67

GUARSEED 2337.33 2196.33 2130.67 2055.33 1989.67 1914.33 1773.33

CHANA 2568.33 2462.33 2422.67 2356.33 2316.67 2250.33 2144.33

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

MUSTARD SEED 580.82 568.87 561.58 556.92 549.63 544.97 533.02

KAPAS 790.17 761.47 743.23 732.77 714.53 704.07 675.37

GUR 1021.33 980.13 954.07 938.93 912.87 897.73 856.53

CARDAMOM 1196.80 1111.00 1079.40 1025.20 993.60 939.40 853.60

CRUDE PALM OIL 454.03 442.53 437.57 431.03 426.07 419.53 408.03

REFINED SOYA OIL 557.95 540.60 531.50 523.25 514.15 505.90 488.55

MENTHA OIL 1146.00 1064.50 1028.70 983.00 947.20 901.50 820.00

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 Weekly Report Agri
18th OctWeekly Commodity
to 23rd Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

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