\RED TO ENS So8er 5 SYSTEMS pombination System Ee ion System | | aerrRiae NENT ‘The future outlook for pulping raw materials is ‘favorable, Being renewable, supplies can be expanded as PULPING The raw material outlook and its relationship to pulping technology needed though. at some increase in their real cost. Pulping I practices are being altered. to better utilize and conserve ‘present raw material resources. The most significant developments are the trends to higher yield pulping and {te increased reclamation of secondary fibers. | ; RW. Hagemeyer ai F Oke of TAPPI's major goals fs wo promote investigation F research and interehange of ideas among its members i the field of pulp and per manufacture and use. An fxpected outgrowth of this effort is the creation of new {echnical knowledge that will contribute tothe seientific frogrese and advancement of the industry. History pro: ‘ides ample evidence that advance preparation and for- acd planning can strongly influence the course of future ‘developments, Thus, compechensive forecastof probable Tuture echnical trends serves the dual purpose of pointing fat areas ywhere new technology will be needed and providing fead time far its orderly development, Recognizing the importance of forward planning, ‘TAPPLestablihed acommittee to prodit future technical Pe weds and trends in the paper: industry, This activity, Ivhich has been going on for twelve years, has resulted in, the publication of formal reports in 1973, 1976 and 1979, ‘The information that follows is currently being analyzed committee in compiling its next formal report his scheduled for publication in 1984, “The plan for preparing the report involves first, detin. eating the exteral factors which will influence the foture B growth and expansion of the paper industry and second, predicting the impact of these factorson internal develop [ments and the related technical needs. ‘The continuing. repercussions ofthe recent ail criss clearly demonstrate | Mie need tolook beyond immediate industry, national and § geographical boundaries in making an assessment of the E foture outlook as well sw the corresponding, internal ‘RW Nagemoyer is Managar of Spocil Projects with JM. Huber (Co. 6835 Jimmy Carr 84S. NW. Norcross, Ga. 90071 changes that will be required. ‘The ert diminishie petroleum and mineral reserves are alreanlyprumptins nan industrien ta alter operating pewceures ail in Some eases; their end produets as well Portunatel;. mest of the raw material sources for pulp and paper are renewable, This will become an increasingly significant factor as the nonrenewable resourees are depleted Raw material outlook As partof its analysis of external factors, the Technica Needs and Tremls Committee reviessed tne stlok fr kes papermaking raw materials. After an extensive study it appears there will be adequate quantities of the fuels mental raw materials available but at a significant in Grease in thelr real cost, An estimate of the tren! line is shown in Table it should be noted these are average figures and maa’ vary significantly depending upon regional availabilits Ualso, they are trend line projections andl do nut reflest @yelic changes, Finally they are foreeasts ani! thus sihject larevision ecentilewelupnnentsraaily rear nent prompted. snificant eedetion in all the price ppredietions, Even so, the indicated ineresse i rules T. Raw material price index (1980 = 100) 3900 1900 2000 see Fer 300 M728 Water jo 174 Enoray yo 22s 20 Chemtcals to st Tho Raw Matsa Outook 3.PULPING still provide a substantial incentive for more efficient itilization and conservation ofthese resources, The factors responsible for the projected escalation for each of these reas are summarized in the fellowing paragraphs. Fiver ‘Trees and other natural fiber sources are renewable; thus the (otal supply can be regulated. Unfortunately, most imethods for increusing availablity, suchas the harvesting of remote areas and more intensive timber management, ‘add to the total cost, Purther restrictions on the removalot timber from public lands and, in some regions, the clearing of forest land for agricultural use are factors ‘eh could result im additional limits on the supply Statisticyan the ttal annual removal volume that could be sustained world-wide ure speculative and are subject to ‘auestions with respect to current inventories and Fe generation rates (nthe plusside, many fel rising fiber values will result in more efficient wastepaper segregation and collection. Also, there will be a growing percentage of neutral/alka- line paver and paperbosed whieh, in itself, is more resistant to degradation in the recycling process. The ‘sarall increase in the quality and value of secondary fiber Should lead to its more widespread use. ‘On the demand side, by the year 2000, the paper industey’s total iber requirement wilt be almost double the current figure. While the relative precentage of primary pulp in the various end products is expected to Seeling, total volume will still rise by 80% to 90%. In ‘addition, many sourees predict a substantial increase in the volume of Wood used as a fuel for domestic and commercial purposes. It is apparent total demand will free the utilization of alternate as well as more expensive timber sources, Local availability of suitable hardwood species is having a significant impact on thelr increased use for pulping in some regions. Geographic supply/de- mand relationships vary considerably with significant shortages in some major world areas. This is especially {re for saftwcos which historically have been the pre ‘rei iber rae material for pulpand paper manufacture, Asthe average distance from forest to mill inereeses there Will bended transport costs, Ieappesrs the projected rise in the real price of fiber is prerequisite to the required increase in supply Water ‘The quantity of water onthe earth is constant and presents ro prablems but its quality does. I's hard to realize that Test than one pereent of the earth's total water is fresh continantal water ofa quality suited for man's need, Water ‘quality and availability in arable regions arediminishing, Ilusiries and municipalities are being forced tocanserve water, yet total demand continues to grow. While the cost of water from local surface sources should remain rela- tively stable, for aveas where the supply must be aug rented bs mining, desalination or lengthy transport, the versie cost wil inerease markedly. With the projected Jerowth in world poputauion andl the accompanying now far additional irrigation, these various methods for es: parading regional water supplies wil become increasingly Commonplace. This ill resin acornesponding inerease in the real eost of water, Eneray In spite ofits drawbacks, OPEC made one very positive contribution tothe world energy situation. OPEC forced ‘oniverssl realization ofthe fact that world oll reserves are finite and cannot long. sustain present, let alone the projected increased rates of ol consumption. In theprocess Chae provided a fair amount of lead time to find and Sovelop alternate energy sources. Growth in total energy 6 Rcyclog Paper: From Feo Fished Product demand is already slowing, Por the next twenty yes total eneray demand is expected to increase at less half the rate it did prior to the 1973-1974 Arab embargo. The growth rate then was about 5% per si ‘Versus tha 2% per year expected between now and 200 ‘Suppy and demand is expected to level off sometime beg the year 2000. By that time any further growth in Gemand will have tobe supplied from other sources, ‘as coal, nuclear, solar, ete "The projected inerease inthe priceof energy reflects only the rising cost of ol but also ia due to investmentes for the conversion of tome existing boilers to coal aswel the erection of new coal burning facilities. There hash imarked increase in the price of natural gas with further rise expected if liquid and aynthetie sources a tapped (o supplement the total supply. Added fuel investment costs will result in a corcesponding increse the cost of electric power. (The current disagreeme within OPEC together with the prospects for new reserves in the Far Bast could reverse this trendline ore indefinite period.) | chemical | ‘Three factors are responsible forthe forecast increas chemical prices. Energy intensive materials, such i chlorine and caustic soda, will have a correspond {nereage in cost. Mining and recovery expenses for natura minerals will inerease with the need to utilize more rem Geposits, Capital costs for additional and replacemedty facilities are continuing torise faster than the forecast of inflation. This is especially true for grass roos plant emote areas which entail the additional cost of supporting infrastructure Being renewable, supplies of the fundamental raw mate rials for pulp and paper manufacture can be expanded a heeded, Unfortunately, most methods for adding to tat total supply involve additional expense. The resuliagt.= gradual but persistent increase in veal costs will provdea rowing incentive for better utilization and conservatiag™. ¥patment® sc Of these raw materials, Current practices and fatumg.-€ith ozone," developments in the pulping area to compensate for the rounded. ‘ txpected esclation in the cost of each of these ray il Be Inercs materials are reviewed in the fllowing segment. _feileonunuey 2 )some app" Pulping outlook one "grades and th Many ofthe forecast changes in raw enaterial costs and Avalalty represent a continuetion of trends wiih Stared oct thn decade go, They Fave aed OM romped some revisun in pulping trends with further e Qnewniatin Changes expected inthe yeuryahead. Someof the relation OF Fiber, from the tonn from a five-p Working Pat Ships betwen varius pulping practices andthe mac -WeRing 2% efficient utilization of the individual raw materials wef 3e8demyc 90° Stncoste i the towing paragraphs Spin Fiber 69, Besa Toner ibe, greater ie of wod rendu isn ened a rade, together witha gradual increase in these of whole tree chips. Lumber and pulping activities will be inter elated 28 meh as possible. Pulp wood will become mote seeing these telative pere And more a residual category based either on sawmilf, i0&H\ <0 ‘ragmentsor tees unfitforiumberend-use- Concurrent, > Reina Se the quality of both chips and wood for pulping wil fs deteriorate, The weaker fibers could result in lower strength pulp. ‘The gradual shift to a greater use aft hardwoods is expected to continue until individual mil furnishes approximate the regional fiber supply base. ff ‘There will be increased emphasis on improving pulp xield in all processes. n the case of kraft, modification at the present systems toward low-sulfur cooking in com fornishused paperand ps ‘The compe board are sh Por ths sisted of te panel of 7 | b poePULPING next twenty years, aeretse at less than 1, World outlook tor wood pulps |, isis gta Arab al epee ne eee hice enpow and 2000.01 a en now and 2000. te00 1900 . 2000 lott sometime before nee. 1880, 1990 2000, er growth in energy Ot ed sao re cabaee hy mother sources, such ens tenn refttent | mos oe BH eto nvestment east 200 312° 6); ana Terstocod, as well as see rit ites Thereas been | | Dosotlng pup 27.2 he aps 30 natural gas with « f | Toll sofweods Tax 984 san tens vnthetic sources are J |! Hardwoods bly. Added fuel and f | 4echanicals 99 28 78 ponding increase inf | "Sneha: rent sbsagreement § | Unlesched ta a3 ea! as sets for new oll ft bibtendlietoran | Whechrict 17 3 ms aoa Ding pulp at ar. a8 ne TWluherewoods 264 SBT 548 Fe forecast increase in f Total pulps: ; materials, such as pate "i Mt 426 2888, eperaesiornatura | Usb 0 388 ara 628 outilige moreremoteF | ite chenica s07. 818, jo.enaichoane al and replacernent{)"| "pup pee than the forecastrate f| csselving pip a ag ae grass ots plantain "| Toaipup oes wet med 2a ditional cost of the IML. Worid outlook for wood pulps (Colative percentages) 1V. World composite furnish for total paper ‘and paperboard (10! metric tons) Jez 1390 3990 Mechanical’ 308 34 “5at emichomical Unbleached me a 442 at * iit cheleat a; a8 as Nonwood fiber a5 78128 Wate tber mo 42 aaa jllerplamont 64 83126 Tota wa 1798 a588 junction with the use of anthraquinone or other additives will became widespread In the mechanical category, Uhermomeehanieal pulp will eontinue to grow and become faminant. tis felt FMD wil replaces significant amount ‘chemical pulp in mise furnishes, There wil be various madificationsof the TMP sequence to provide improved thysial properties and to reduce enetgy demand. Peo _Mealments sh as sodium sulfite and/or post-treatments Sth "onone ur chtorine dioxide re likely: or some froundiwood, chemical modification and pressurization I be increasingly common. Finally, secondary fibers = sicontinueto grow in proportonateuse, a trend that wil le further abetted by improved relsiming systems. ‘Some appreciation of the potential growth in: pulp consumption as well asthe trend to high-yield mechanical grades andthe greater use of hardsvous ean be gained trom the tornage figures in Table Il This information it {fom a five phase report to the Fosd and Agricultural /Orranication. The datas part of PhaseV World Outlook [or Fiber Produets which was compiled in 1978 by a |Morkng Party ofexperts drawn from the forestindustries, Jacalemia and government. {i important to note that hese elimates were made in 1978 (live years ago) and Ee.sould probably be somewhat different if made today Bo Us89, ecausoof imitations nthe database the reader {cautioned against using Une igures asa definitive forecast Tsprncial objective i toidentify key tren To asistin Seeing these trands, tho figures have boen converted to Fate percentage in Table =F inthinsame PAO report, Phase I1—World Outlook for Resionl Self-Sufficieney ant Fiber Furnish includes Ibuimats ofthe present and future composition of the ish used forthe manfacturecf the major eategories of pr and paperboard nthevarouexins ofthe wort ‘emposte world figures for total paper and paper Deard are shown in Table 1V 1 For this phase of the report, the Working Patty con- {abled of ton indstry speciality In itn, a review ane of 97 industry lealers from Utrovghout the world alyzed the Working Party's preliminary predictions damental raw mate: scan i expanded 38 ds for adding to the B ense. The resulting, costs will provide jan and conservation ractices and future compensate for the ach of these ram ng sexment. on of trends. whieh ‘They, have alreads| trends with farther Someat the relation etiees and the more} (raw materials re _ : util favividual mi iver supply base. son improving pull walt, mifieationd ifur cooking. in con World composite furnish for total paper ‘and paperboard (relative percentages) 1723980 1900 Mechanical 210 "a8 ata ,,Somleherical "Unbleached twa saa “amt init chemin! aa 67 Nonwood ther 444248 Waste tber m1 aon Filr/lgrvant eae Tote pulps 1970 3960 3800 2000 Mechanical ms 3 BS ie Nemighemicel Unbiaches mes 4 257 “unite chomies! mo sas Pu Dissoving pulp 4s 33258 Total pup" 100 1000 1000 1000 Percent sotwood Tar 7h 898887 Pereonthardwood 253283304313 Note: Percentages may not ad eve 0 oun and suggested changes where appropriate, The report was issued in May 1977. Here again the reader should note the date of the prediction and realize that current estimate (1985) might generate different figures. eis presented solely for the purpose of identifying trends. To assist noting the trends, the data has boen recast a5 relative percentages (Table V) (Of special interests the projected growth in the relative percentage of secondary fiber. The repurtineludes data bs Droduet category for the various geographic regions the ‘world, [tis interesting tocompare the relative waste pair percentage for the fiber rieh (lox) an fier poor (hight Water Rexarding the second raw material extegurs. water. thy effortstaconserve fall into two areas closing the system a theelimination of materialsthat present eftluent problems ‘Toassistin thelatier oxygan compounds appear tobe likely candidates fr replacing chlorine in blegehiny systems. The tse of ehlorine dioside will not be affected: rte t the ‘eontrary it sexpected toyrov Effluenteontrol wll center fon reluced ow (more elysed eyele) and (rene wr individual treatment for specific pollutants rather tas the present all-porjose systems, Tho Raw Mate) Outlook 31