Forex Trading

Strategy
ODD ENHANCERS
1. Pattern (high in curve and low in curve)
2. How did price leave the level?
3. How much time did price spend at the level?
4. How did price return to the level?
5. Profit margin
6. Risk Reward
7. Trend
8. Retracement
9. Levels near larger timeframe levels?
10. Levels on top of levels
11. Inter intra market correlations
12. Long wicks in base
13. Bollinger Band & Stochastics
14. News
15. Gap
16. Spread
17. Levels with pivot high/low
18. How many candles at the base? (2-6 candles)
19. Freshness
20. Original
21. Cancel opposing level or breaking the trendline
Probability Enhancers Score

 Big Picture (max 2)

If we are taking shorter time frame short positions in context of a big
down trend, then this gets a 2. If we are shorting during a bigger picture
uptrend, and we are close to big picture support, it is a 0 or a 1.
 High or Low in Curve (max 2)
If price is near major demand level and the trend is down, we don’t
trade. It is a 2 if trend is up and near demand and if trend is down and
near supply.

 Retracement (max 2)
 Reward/Risk (max 2)

 Time at level (max 2)

 Strength of the move (max 2)

  Arrival (max 1)
Strong arrival usually means strong departure at the level.
Total Score:
 More than 8 it could be limit order,
 8 confirmation entry,
 Less than 8 no trade,

Multiple Time Frame Selection

 Scalping trading : 15min/5min/1min
 Day trading : 1h/15min/5min, 4h/1h/15min
 Swing trading : D/4h/1h, W/D/4h
 Position trading : M/W/D

MTF Analysis

1. Higher Time Frame: Find Major Supply/Demand levels,

2. Intermediate Time Frame: Find the Trend,
3. Lower Time Frame: Entry and Take Profit.
The last two timeframes need to be in the same direction. Otherwise,
don’t trade, wait for the last two timeframes to align together and enter
the market.

Trendline

Draw it to spot early changes in the trend, when price breaks the
trendline we go to higher timeframe.
Uptrend:
1. Higher Highs and Higher Lows,
2. Supply canceled in opposing
direction,
Downtrend:
1. Lower Highs and Lower Lows,
2. Demand canceled in opposing direction,

Inter Intra Market Correlations

US Index goes up USD goes up

US Index goes down USD goes down
Nikkei goes up JPY goes down
Nikkei goes down JPY goes up
US Index goes up 30-yr US Bond goes down
US Index goes down 30-yr US Bond goes up

Supply & Demand Levels

Supply Level

Demand Level

Profit Margin:

Profit margin is the distance in pips between the supply and demand in
control. This distance should be 3 times the size of the supply (if price is
leaving supply) or demand zone (if price is leaving demand).
STRATEGY

Step 1
Analyze US Dollar Index (DXY) and the Nikkei 225 Index (NI225)
first:
- US Dollar Index (DXY) gives you an idea on where is the dollar in
the curve, is it near major timeframe (daily) demand or supply.
This is how you can plan your trades.
- Nikkei 225 index (NI225) when it goes down, Yen goes up and
when it goes up the Yen goes down.
Step 2
Identify major trend using MTF. Ex: (W/D/H4) we need to have the
same trend in all time frames (Alignment). If not, wait for alignment
before moving to step 3.
Step 3
- Look for strong and big move in the market and look for the origin
of that move.
- There are three types of moves in the market: fast, gradual and gap.
- Use the odd enhances to filter the levels.
- Draw Supply/Demand levels.
Step 4
- Go to lower time frame to place your entry few pips below/above
the level.
- Limit opportunities to the first (or second) retracement.
- Stop loss placed just below demand or above supply.
- Use Fib. Levels 50% to exit the trade, or use the opposing
demand/supply level as take profit.
 S&D Supply Demand
Trend Downtrend Sideways Uptrend Downtrend Sideways Uptrend
High in the Sell Sell Sell Wait Wait Wait
curve
Equilibrium Sell Sell Wait Wait Buy Buy
Low in the Wait Wait Wait Buy Buy Buy
curve

Indicators

- Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

When 20 MA slope is rising and CCI is oversold, we ignore all signals
to sell and we only BUY.
When 20 MA slope is declining and CCI is overbought, we ignore all
signals to buy and we only SELL.
Overbought Oversold
Up Ignore Buy Signal
Down Sell Signal Ignore
Sideways Sell Signal Buy Signal

- Stochastics
Same concept as CCI. Settings: Slow (High, low, close, 14, 3, 3, 1, 20,
80).
- Bollinger Bands + Fresh Supply/Demand Levels
If price rallies to a fresh supply level and price pierces above the upper
band = High Probability Setup.
If price declines to a fresh demand level and price pierces below the
lower band = High Probability Setup.
Trading Continuation Patterns

Pros:
- Strong with the trend: CP are strong at the beginning of the trend
near reversal points,
- If price touches a higher time frame supply or demand zone, the
CP at smaller time frame is strong.
Cons:
- Don’t trade it against the trend,
- Weak at High and Low in the curve near reversal points,
- After 3 CP we don’t trade it, wait for a pullback to start a new
trend.
Entry at CP:
- In Uptrend we place limit order at the top of the CP candle,
- In Downtrend we place limit order at the bottom of the CP candle,
Important Points

- Always look for levels where price leaves with big candles. The
bigger the candle the greater the imbalance.
- In the case where we have a level on top of another level, put your
limit order at the level near the big candle, if no big candle then
either put it in between the levels or put multiple orders in different
price levels.
- If price arrives at a specific level and touches the very low price
level of that level then probably no more unfilled orders are to
move the price.
- If a base contain one single candle with a long wick to either the
bottom or the top, it is a clear sign of weakness of the level.
Disregarded.
- Too many long wicks in a base, weaker level.
- Valid level is when price leaves it with at least twice the distance
of the level. Always trade levels that give you 1:3 risk reward ratio
or high profit margin.
- The level is valid when price leaves it with a HLOC candle.
Special Cases

 Case 1
Pivot low in demand (long wick to the downside) and pivot high (long
wick to the upside) in supply make these levels not valid to trade
because of no significant orders are to fill.
 Case 2
If you have level on top of level, put your limit order on the level that
price has left with a strong candle. If the candle wasn’t that big, put your
order in between the levels or put multiple orders between those levels.
 Case 3
If the price arrives at the very low level of demand level, it means all
orders are filled and the price is likely to go down to another demand
levels.
 Case 4
Gap is the strong level to trade. If the gap is above near supply draw
your supply level. If the gap is below near demand draw your demand
level.
 Case 5
If price comes back and doesn’t touch the level and retraces back, it
means the level is strong. Even if the price retraces back to this level
more than twice without touching (piercing) the level, the level is still
valid to trade.
Another scenario is when price returns to a supply or demand in a zig-
zag manner (staircase), price will retrace in a strong manner, go to lower
time frame and find newly formed supply or demand level to enter the
market.
  Case 6
If price has a demand level in the opposite side (left) but supply is close
to where the price is, don’t trade this level because of small profit
margin. If price has a supply in the opposite side (right) but demand is
close to where price is, don’t trade this level.
SCENARIOS

Monthly Weekly Daily H4

Buy Order.
If price is near supply zone, wait for the price to go down, then move
from Daily to Weekly and place pending order on Weekly demand zones
and not Daily.

Monthly Weekly Daily H4

Sell Order.

Monthly Weekly Daily

Opposing Supply: Weekly or Daily,
Fresh: Yes,
Buy only when price go to overlapping demand zones between Weekly
and Daily.

Monthly Weekly Daily

Opposing Supply: Weekly or Daily,
Fresh: No,
Buy at CP or after a pullback on Daily.

Monthly Weekly Daily H4

Look for overlapping supply zones between H4 &Daily to Sell.

Monthly Weekly Daily

With opposing supply zone on Weekly or Daily.
Go to Weekly and find demand zone to place order or on overlapping
zones (Weekly and Daily).
 Monthly Weekly Daily
With opposing supply zone on Monthly.
Wait for price to reach demand zone on monthly to buy. Don’t buy on
Weekly or Daily.

Monthly Weekly Daily

Sell only if price touches the Monthly or Weekly Supply.

Monthly Weekly Daily

With opposing supply zone on Weekly or Daily.
Fresh and Original,
Sell at Supply.

Monthly Weekly Daily

Move to weekly to find supply zone. Wait for price to go to weekly
supply or overlapping supply zone between weekly and daily.

Monthly Weekly Daily

Opposing Supply: Monthly,
Sell Only.
MONEY MANAGEMENT

Trading Conditions: Position Value

PORTFOLIO MANAGER ACCOUNT OBEJCTIVES
Max Drawdown -4%
Max Exposure of lot summarized by all open trades X10
Min Trades No Minimum
Stop loss per position from balance 1.5%

Risk Management
PORTFOLIO MANAGER ACCOUNT
OBEJCTIVES
Max Drawdown -350 Pips
Max Exposure of lot summarized by all open 10 Concurrent
trades Trades
Min Trades None
Stop loss per position from balance -150 pips

Profit Withdrawals
The amount of profit to withdraw is decided based on the percentage of
growth and drawdown of the current month.

No withdrawal if:

1. A trader had exceeded the Maximum Drawdown Allowance

2. A trader had exceeded the Maximum Exposure Allowance
3. Capital is less than $10k
4. A trader fail to make a minimum of 10% gain