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CONTAGION IN THEORY
In the simplestcase, the interpersonalsynapseover whichsocial conta-
gion occurs involvesone individual,ego, who has not yet adopted the
innovationunderstudy,and a secondindividual,alter,who has adopted.
Somethingabout the social structuralcircumstancesof ego and alter
makes them proximatesuch that ego's evaluation of the innovationis
sensitiveto alter'sadoption. Contact,communication, and competition
have been argued,each in turn,as makingego and alterproximate.
Physicalproximity alone has some capacityto cause social contagion.
The closerthe physicalcontactis betweenego and alter,themorelikely
thatalter'sadoptionwill triggerego's. Merelywitnessingalter'sadoption
1288
Cohesion
The cohesionmodelfocuseson socializationbetweenego and alter.The
morefrequentand empathicthecommunication is betweenego and alter,
the more likelythat alter's adoption will triggerego's. Discussingthe
innovationwithothers,ego comesto a normativeunderstanding ofadop-
tion'scostsand benefits, coloredbytheinterests
a social understanding of
the people withwhomthe innovationhas been discussed.
Withthe spread of mass media and developmentof sociometricsocial
psychology in thedecades surrounding WorldWar II, it was shownthat
social proximity(such as friendships)developedfromphysicalproximity
and that shared attitudesdeveloped fromsocial proximity.Homans's
1289
3 Of course,theseare merelyhighlights
in thebroadprogramof empiricalinterper-
sonalinfluence fromColumbiaUniversity's
researchdisseminated BureauofApplied
Social Researchduringthe 1940s and 1950s. Barton(1982) providesan informal
insider'saccountofhow theresearchprogramdevelopedat thebureau.
1290
StructuralEquivalence
1291
ego
person person
alter
ego
person person
alter
ego
person person
alter
FIG. 1.-Kinds of social structuralsituationsin whichstructural
equivalence
and/orcohesionpredictcontagionbetweenego and alter.
1293
Formal Theory
Of the alternativeways to derivethe predictionsof social contagionby
cohesionversusstructural equivalence,thereare advantagesto beginning
in psychophysics.Suppose, for a moment,that the desirablequalities
affectedby adoptingan innovationcould be measuredquantitatively in
one dimension.Let tj be the discerniblelevel of thoseresourcesheld by
some personj, ego in the above discussion.Empirical evidence from
psychophysicsindicates that ego's subjective perceptionof these re-
sources,uj, can be describedin many circumstancesby the following
powerfunctionofthediscernibleresourceshe in facthas: uj = utjv,where
,uand v are parametersdescribinganyonein thestudypopulationmaking
thisevaluation(see Stevens1957 and 1962 forillustrative review).Ego's
1294
1295
1296
1297
1298
A BehavioralMeasure of Adoption
Beyond the usual retrospectiveadoption data in personalinterviews,
behavioral adoption data were obtained in the study. Records at the
pharmaciesfillingthe bulk of thetetracycline prescriptions forthestudy
populationwereaudited. Prescriptions writtenduringthree-day periods,
separatedby intervalsof about one month,were auditedforover a year
followingtetracycline's release.9 The resultwas an adoption-date variable
rangingfrom1 to 17, roughlyindicatingthe monthaftertetracycline's
release in which a physicianfirstbegan prescribingthe new antibiotic.
Withinthetimecoveredby thestudy,16 physicianswerenonadoptersin
thattheprescription samplingturnedup prescriptions thattheyhad writ-
tenbutno tetracycline prescriptions. As did theoriginalstudy,I use these
physiciansto definea finalpointin tetracycline's diffusion,category18 on
the adoption-datevariable. They eithernever adopted tetracycline, or
adoptedit afterthe timeperiodcoveredby thestudy,or wroteprescrip-
tionsforit on days not coveredin the prescription sampling.Since they
were exposed to the same risk of being missed in the samplingas the
physicianswhose tetracycline prescriptions were detected,eitherof the
firsttwo possibilitiesseemsmorelikelythanthethird.In contrast,there
werefivephysiciansforwhomno prescriptions werefound,neithertetra-
cyclineprescriptions norprescriptions foranything else. As in theoriginal
study,I have made no attemptto predictadoptionsby thesefivephysi-
cians-leaving 125 physicianswhose adoption date is definedby the
prescriptionsamplingand to be explained.
1299
These adoption data should be much more reliable than the retro-
spectivesurveydata typicalofdiffusion research,sincetheyare based on
behavioraltracesratherthana physician'smemoryof morethana year's
prescriptions. At the same time,the data are not a census. Prescriptions
wereonlyauditedforthreeworkingdays per month.It is quite possible
fora physicianto have begun prescribing tetracyclineand have had his
prescriptions filledduringthe days forwhichprescription recordswere
not audited. However, such samplingerrorscould only occur in one
direction.It is possiblefora physicianto have begunprescribing tetracy-
cline earlier than the prescriptiondata would indicate, but he had
definitelybegunprescribing bythetimeone ofhis prescriptions forit was
located. In otherwords(and thiswill be importantin aggregating conta-
gionevidence),an unexpectedly late adoptioncould be a samplingerror,
but an unexpectedlyearlyadoptioncould not.
1300
A SociologicalExemplar
The sociologyof scienceprovidesa thirdreasonforreturning to Medical
Innovation.The studyhas becomean exemplar.The difficulty ofobtain-
ingbehavioraladoptiondata and thoroughnetworkdata, notto mention
theskillfulanalysisof thesedata in theoriginalstudy,have combinedto
make it unique in diffusionresearch.Researchpriorand subsequentto
Medical Innovation provides a wealth of information on nonnetwork
variablesaffecting innovationadoptionand associationsbetweenaspects
of networkpositionsand recollectionsof adopting.Rogers(1983) con-
tinuesto providethe encyclopedicsynthesisof thisresearch.Littlenew
knowledgehas emerged,however,on the mannerin whichsocial conta-
gion operates;cohesionremainsthe assumed social forcedrivingconta-
gion,and Medical Innovationremainstheclassicevidentialreference (see
Rogers1983,chap. 8, on diffusion networksin generaland pp. 65-68 and
288-93 on Medical Innovationin particular).Thus, theoriginaldata are
a strategicresearchsitefortestingnew understandingsofthesocial struc-
turalconditionsresponsibleforcontagion.
1301
k = .9
08
04
A. DiffusionWithoutContagion
02 dy/dt = k 1-y)
0
1 3 5 6 8 to 12 14 16
B. DiffusionWith
Contagion
0.8 dy/dt = ky (I-y)
0 6
0.4 k .5
02
k=.2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
MonthsAfterTetracycline'sRelease
FIG. 2.-Diffusion in theory(cumulativeproportionof physiciansadopting
over time)
1302
1303
12
The diffusioncurvesin fig.2 beginwiththefirst physician'sadoption(yo= 1/125).
The formof the diffusion curvesproducedby personalpreference is stableover a
reasonablerangeofalternative startingproportions,butthecurvesproducedbysocial
contagionare quitesensitiveto thenumberof physicians initiallyadoptingtetracy-
cline.E.g., ifdiffusion
weresaid to have begunwith10 physicians adopting,thenyo
would be 10/125,and the contagioncurvein fig.2B withk = .2 would predict
adoptionby 70% of thestudypopulationby theend of timeperiodcoveredby the
studyratherthanthe 16% in fig.2B. In fact,one way to speedcontagiousdiffusion
through itsinitially
slow rateis to seed thepopulationwitha smallnumberofinitial
adoptions.Nevertheless, contagionwouldhave had itscharacteristic effecton diffu-
sioncurvesin theMedicalInnovationstudypopulation.Even ifthecurvesin fig.2B
are begunwiththe 8.8% of the studypopulationadoptingby the end of the first
month,theystillshowthecharacteristic slowinitialdiffusion
phase,butitis brieffor
physicians stronglypredisposed towardadoptingthenewantibiotic.
1304
all WW "
0 8 physiciains
physicians
receiving four or
morecitations
0.4
A. Variation by Interpersonal
02 Prominence
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
cohesion/ /
0.8 e
t - 4 ~~~~~~~diffusion
0.6
0.4 diffusion by
structural
equivalence
0 2 4 6 a 10 12 14 16
MonthsAfterTetracycline'sRelease
proportion
FIG. 3.-Diffusionobserved(cumulative adopting
of physicians
overtime)
1305
evidenceof per-
thereis evidenceof contagion,thereis simultaneously
sonal preferences
at work.13
13 This conclusion
can be statedmoreprecisely witha diffusionmodeldevelopedin
marketing researchto describethespreadofnew products.I am grateful to Donald
Lehmannforcallingmyattention tothiswork.Mahajanand Peterson (1985)providea
briefreviewof the work,and the papersassembledin Mahajan and Wind (1986)
providedetaileddiscussion.The modelis usefulherebecauseitdistinguishes
personal
and contagioncomponents in populationdiffusion
curves.The basicmodelproposed
by Bass (1969)definesthenumberofpeopleexpectedto adoptin timeintervalt (see
Mahajan and Wind 1986, p. 6):
dN(t)ldt = [p + (q/m)N(t)][m -N(t)],
whereN(t)is thecumulative numberofindividualsadoptingbytimet,mis a diffusion
"ceiling"equal to the numberof individualswho will eventuallyadopt, p is a
"coefficient
of innovation"describingthe tendencyforindividualsto adopt before
anyoneelsehas adopted(notethattheequationreducestopmwhenN(t) = 0), and q is
a "coefficient
ofimitation"describingthetendency forindividualsto adoptas others
adopt.This modelcan be restatedin termsofthefactorsfamiliar to sociologists
from
Colemanet al.'s analysis(see Bass 1969, pp. 217-18): dy/dt = (p + qy)(1 - y)
= p(1 - y) + qy(1 - y), wherey is the cumulativeproportionof adopterswho adopted
by timet (i.e., y = N(t)lm).In otherwords,themarketing modeldisaggregates the
averageadoptionprobability in fig.2, k, intoa personalcomponentand a social
component. The p(1 - y) termis thepersonalcomponent displayedin fig.2A and the
qy(1 - y) termis thecontagioncomponent displayedin fig.2B. To estimatethemag-
nitudeof thesecomponents in an observeddiffusion curve,one can integrate the
partialderivative dy/dtand compareadoptionfrequencies insuccessivetimeintervals.
The number of adoptions in time interval t, dN(t), is the differenceN(t) - N(t - 1),
whichequalsthedifference m(yt)- m(yt-1),which,wheny is replacedwiththeresults
ofintegratingdy/dt,yieldsan equationwithwhichtheunknown parametersm,p, and
q can be estimated(see Srinivasanand Mason 1986):
1306
1307
alters of immediateadopters
0.8
0.6 alters of
nonadopte rs
0.4
0.2
A. StructuralEquivalence
0
0 2 4 6 8 0o ?2 ?4 ?6
MonthsAfterTetracycline'sRelease
1
alters of immediateadopters
0.8
alters of
0.6 nonadopters
0.4
0.2 B. Cohesion
0
0 2 4 6 a ?0 ?2 ?4 ?6
MonthsAfterTetracycline'sRelease
FIG. 4. -Alter adoptionsforphysiciansadoptingextremely
earlyor extremely
late (cumulativeproportionof altersadoptingover time).
1308
1309
TABLE 1
EVIDENCE OF CONTAGION IN ADOPrION
Structural
Equivalence Cohesion
1310
1311
TABLE 2
Early adopters:
................. 7 3 6 4 2 7
(5) (3) (4) (2) (5) (8)
2 ................. 3 5 2 1 0 1
(3) (1) (1) (3) (2) (2)
Median Adopters:
3 ................. 6 3 5 6 0 1
(5) (2) (4) (3) (1) (5)
4 ................. 10 0 3 1 1 6
(8) (4) (3) (3) (2) (1)
5 ................. 4 0 1 0 1 4
(4) (0) (0) (0) (0) (5)
Late adopters:
6 ................. 0 0 5 9 6 11
(6) (1) (6) (6) (3) (6)
1312
16
One earlyadopter,the last in Galesburg,adoptedduringthe fifthmonth,but
tetracyclinedid notbegindiffusing amongthesampledGalesburgphysicians untilthe
thirdsamplingperiod,so thatthislastadoptionis wellwithinthefirst fourmonthsof
tetracycline'sdiffusionwithinGalesburg.
17 Interpersonal influencefromadvisersand discussionpartners was reportedinMed-
icalInnovationforthefirst fivemonths oftetracycline'sdiffusion
(Colemanetal. 1966,
pp. 114-30). This suggeststhatthelack of a cohesioneffectin table 1 mightbe a
consequence ofestimating contagion acrosstheentiretimeperiodcoveredbythestudy
ratherthanfocusing on thefirstfivemonthswhencohesionhad itseffect. Suchis not
thecase. The evidenceof interpersonal influence reportedin theoriginalstudyde-
pendson censoring theadoptiondata and is duplicatedhereiftheadoptiondata are
similarlycensored.Answering thequestionofwhennetworks had theireffect,
Cole-
manet al. (1966,pp. 117-20)estimated interpersonalinfluencebycomparing thedate
on whicha physician adoptedwiththedatesofadoptionbyhisadvisersanddiscussion
partnerswhohad alreadyadopted.Advisersanddiscussion partnersadoptinglater,or
notadoptingat all, weredeletedfromtheestimation. Thus,variationin theadoption
behaviorofphysicians adoptingearlywas censored,givingtheappearanceofsimul-
taneousadoptionsearlyin tetracycline's diffusion.The laterthemonthwas inwhicha
physicianadopted,the greaterthe acknowledgedvariationin the dates on which
advisersand discussionpartners adoptedand thelowerthelikelihood offindingevi-
denceof contagion.Similarly, thedate on whichan earlyadopterbeganprescribing
tetracyclineis stronglypredicted herebystructural equivalenceand cohesionifphysi-
cianswhosealtersadoptedlaterare ignored(r = .72, 4.16 t-test for18 earlyadopters
understructural equivalence;r = .56, 2.16 t-testfor12 earlyadoptersundercohe-
sion).However,expandingthecalculations toall 41 earlyadoptersregardlessofwhen
theiraltersadoptedshowsthatthereis no associationbetweenthemonthin whichan
earlyadopterbeganprescribing and themonthin whichhisalters,on average,began
prescribing(r = .06 forstructural equivalence;r = .03 forcohesion).
1313
1314
lOOX
a0X~~~~~~~~~
s i
S~
~~~~~~~~~t
~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
,orm
3- i- t 9 t El
Adoption
A. Percent _
Physicians
Exposed to
Structural
Equivalence 40%-
Norm
B. Percent 10%
Physicians
Exposed to
Cohesion
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Monthsafter Tetracycline'sRelease in
which PhysicianAdopted
FIG. 5.-Adoptionnormsovertime
1315
table 2:
early 18 15 8
median 23 18 11
late 0 20 11,
and the followingmultiplicative
interactioneffectsare takenfroma log-
linear model of the frequencies(increasedby .5 to eliminatethe zero
frequency):
early 2.4 0.7 0.6
median 2.4 0.6 0.7
late 0.2 2.4 2.3.
The thirdcolumndescribesphysicianswhose alterspostponedadopting
tetracyclineuntil very late in its diffusionor never adopted it at all.
Physiciansexposedto such alterstendednotto adopt duringtheearlyor
middlephasesoftetracycline's diffusion.The numberofthempostponing
adoption,as did theiralters,untillate in thediffusionprocessis 2.3 times
thenumberthatwould be expectedifphysicianadoptionswereindepen-
dentof alteradoptions.The secondcolumndescribesphysiciansexposed
to alters adoptingduringthe middle phase of tetracycline's diffusion.
These physicianstoo were likelyto delay writingprescriptions forthe
new antibioticuntillate in itsdiffusion.The firstcolumndescribesphysi-
cians whose altersadopted tetracycline soon afterit was available. The
numberofsuch physicianswho themselvesadoptedearlyis 2.4 timesthe
numberthatwould be expectedifphysicianadoptionswereindependent
of alteradoptions.This effectcontinuesintothe middleof tetracycline's
diffusion.The numberofphysiciansexposedto early-adopting altersand
themselvesadoptingduringthemiddleperiodoftetracycline's diffusion is
2.4 timesthenumberthatwould be expectedunderindependence.What
physiciansexposedto early-adopting alterswereunlikelyto do was post-
pone theiradoptionto the late phase of tetracycline's diffusion.In sum,
contagionhad a directand lagged effect.Physiciansexposed to alters
adoptingduringa givenphase of tetracycline's diffusiontendedto adopt
duringthatphase or in thesubsequentphase. Theytendednotto adoptin
thephase precedingtheone in whichtheiraltersadoptedand tendednot
to postponeadoptionformorethan a phase afterthe one in whichtheir
altersadopted.20
20 ofthewayin whichprescriptions
Thislag couldbe an artifact weresampled.Recall
thatprescriptionswereauditedforthreeworking dayspermonth.It is quitepossible
fora physicianto have begunprescribing and have had hisprescriptions
tetracycline
filledduringthedaysforwhichprescription recordswerenotaudited,butsuchsam-
plingerrorscouldonlyoccurin one direction.It is possiblefora physicianto have
begunprescribing tetracycline datawouldindicate,buthe
earlierthantheprescription
1316
TABLE 3
INNOVATION ROLES
AltersDo Not
AltersAdopt Early Adopt Early
had definitely
begunprescribing bythetimeoneofhisprescriptions foritwas located.
This meansthatan unexpectedly late adoptioncould be a samplingerrorbut an
unexpectedly earlyadoptioncouldnot.The physicians seemingto adoptin thephase
aftertheiraltersadopted,in otherwords,couldeasilyhavewrittenearliertetracycline
prescriptionsthatwentunnoticed in theprescription
sampling.
1317
TABLE 4
ATTRIBUTES PREDISPOSING PHYSICIANS TO TETRACYCLINE
REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS
PREDICTING ADOPTION DATE
1318
1319
1320
Structural
Equivalence Cohesion
1322
80%-
60%X/
Percent
Physicians
AotnEarly
20x
Adopting Lae
FIG. 6.-Adoptionacrosslevelsofprominence
1323
to 7.9 monthsforphysicians
citedbyonephysician.
Physiciansreceivingtwoand three
citationsadoptedat aboutthesame timeas thephysicians
receivingone citation(7.4
months).Above threecitations,mean adoptiondate again decreasesto 5.8 months
amongphysicians receiving
fouror morecitations.
1324
Structural Equivalence
Contagion
Effectat
Each Level
Prominence
Cohesion
Dashed lines -2
contagion with None One Citation Twoor Three Four or More
personal [n=36) (31) (24) (33)
preference held Prominenceas an Advisorand Discussion Partner
constant. (citations received)
27 The conclusionsillustrated
infig.7 forcategorical
adoptiondatesarealso supported
by analysis-of-covariance modelsdescribing continuous
contagioneffects.Withob-
served(X) and normative (X*) adoptiondatesstandardizedby citymeansand vari-
ances(so thatinteraction effectsmeasureslopeadjustmentsfortheaveragephysician
in a city),ordinaryleast-squaresestimatesofparameters
in thefollowinganalysis-of-
covariancemodelhave beenobtained(see App.):
X = (a, + a2P2 + a3P3 + a4P4) + (b, + b2P2+ b3P3+ b4P4)X*+ E,
whereP2, P3, and P4 are dummyvariablescorresponding
to thesecond,third,and
fourthcategories of network prominence in fig. 7 (respectively,equal to one for a
physicianreceivingone, two or three,or fouror morecitations).Termsin thefirst
parentheses definetheequationintercept, and termsin thesecondparentheses define
theequationslope.The continuous contagion effectamonguncitedphysicians is mea-
suredbybI. The effect amongphysicians citedbyone otherphysician is measuredby
b1 + b2.The effect amongphysicians citedbytwoorthreephysicians is measuredby
b, + b3,and theeffect amongthemostprominent physiciansis measuredbybi + b4.
Routinet-tests forbl, b2,b3,and b4indicatethemagnitude oftheseeffects relativeto
residualvariationbut are uncertainindicatorsof statistical significance(see App.).
WhenX* is definedbycohesion,thet-tests forbI, b2,b3,and b4are 2.7, -2.1, - 3. 1,
and -2.2, respectively. The same patternof effectsis observedif the aggregate
personalpreference variableconstructed fromtable4 is enteredintotheaboveequa-
tion(t-testsof 2.4, -2.4, -2.4, and -1.7, respectively). WhenX* is definedby
structural equivalence,in contrast,
theslopeadjustments areall negligible.
The t-tests
are .7, .9, -.1, and - .1, respectively,beforeholdingpersonalpreference constant
and .9, .4, -.2, and -.3, respectively, afterholdingpersonalpreference constant.
1325
CONCLUSIONS
To summarizein a sentence,two factorsdrove the diffusionprocess:
personalpredispositions
and contagionby structuralequivalence.Cohe-
1326
1327
APPENDIX
EstimatingContagionEffects
It is convenientto discussequation(1) as a networkautocorrelation
model
expressedin matrixterms:
X = bpP + bSWX + E,
whereX is a vectorofadoptiondates,P is a vectorofpersonalpreference
data, E is a vectorofresiduals,and W is a matrixofthenetworkweights
1328
1329
WeightingAlters
Altershave been definedwiththeweightsin equation(2), definedby the
sociometricadvice and discussionchoicesmade by the 228 interviewed
physicians.The 18 uninterviewedphysicianscitedby two or morepre-
scription-samplephysiciansare includedin the sociometriccalculations
because theydefinepoints of similarityin the relationpatternsof the
physicianscitingthem and so contributeto variationin the structural
equivalencesamongthem.The pooled advice and discussiondata define
a choice matrixin which cell (j, i) is one if j cited i as an adviser or
discussionpartnerand zero otherwise.The choicematrixis 117 x 117 in
Peoria, 50 x 50 in Bloomington,34 X 34 in Quincy,and 32 X 32 in
Galesburg.Path distanceshave been computedand normalizedto define
relationvariablesZji varyingbetweenzero and one, withthe minimum
numberof choicesrequiredto reach physiciani fromphysicianj, where
zeroindicatesthatthereis no chainofintermediary advisersor discussion
partnersthroughwhich physicianj can reach physiciani. Structural
equivalencehas been definedby the Euclidean distancedij betweenthe
positionsof physiciansi and j in the networkof medical advice and
discussion,
wji = (zji)vIYk(zjk)v, k $ j.
1330
MissingData on AlterAdoptions
The precedingcalculationsinvolveall 216 studyrespondents,but adop-
tion date is only available on the 125 prescription-sample
physicians.
Unfortunately, thereis no allowance for missingdata in the class of
networkmodels under consideration.Considera five-person systemin
1331
1332
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Burt,RonaldS. 1983(1978)."CohesionversusStructural Equivalenceas a Basis for
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1333
1334
1335