STUDY HISTORY

“History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme” Mark Twain

"History repeats because of the weakness of human nature." William D Gann

"What we learn from history is that people don't learn from history. And you
certainly see that in financial markets all the time." Warren Buffett

“The truth is, history can be one of our greatest aids, in investing as in life”
Howard Marks

“I learned to study history better" Ray Dalio

"In order to do well, you must learn from the past" Roy Neuberger

"One thing all of us have learned is never ignore the lessons of history" Paul
Tudor Jones

"I read a lot of financial history and studied human nature" Thomas Gayner

"I read a lot of history and it’s my thing on not just financial history but broad
history" Jim Chanos

"As I look back on it now, it's obvious that studying history and philosophy
was much better preparation for the stock market than, say, studying
statistics" Peter Lynch

"The unhappy truth is that markets don't learn their lessons very
well. Financial history tends to repeat itself. The only questions are when and
to what degree" Michael Lewitt

"No statement is more true and better applicable to Wall Street than the famous
warning of Santayana: 'Those who do not remember the past are condemned to
repeat it.'' Benjamin Graham

"History may not repeat itself, but some of its lessons are inescapable. One is
that in the world of high and confident finance little is ever really new . The
controlling fact is not the tendency to brilliant invention; the controlling fact is
the shortness of the public memory, especially when it contends with a euphoric
desire to forget" John Kenneth Gailbraith

“A history degree is far more useful than a CFA [Chartered Financial Analyst].”
Crispin Odey

"I think an investor today could learn a lot by seeing what the environment was
like when there was less competition and when securities were of different kinds
of companies, and to understand the cycles of history. The eras pass and
change but the fundamental principles don't" Seth Klarman
“You can’t understand economics without understanding philosophy and
history” Leon Levy

"[Super-smart people with all these degrees in higher mathematics end up doing
these dumb things as they] have a lack of understanding of history. One of the
things — in 1962, when I set up our office in Kiewit Plaza, where we still are, it’s a
different floor, I put seven items on the wall. Our art budget was $7, and I went
down to the library, and for a dollar each I made photo copies of the pages from
financial history." Warren Buffett

"History is important." Sir Michael Hintze

"You can always learn accounting on the side, but you've got to study
history. History gives you a broad perspective and teaches that exceptional
people can make a difference." Shelby Davis

"At least a portion of Windsor's critical edge amounted to nothing more

mysterious than remembering lessons of the past and how they tend to repeat
themselves. You cannot become a captive of historical parallel, but you must be a
student of history." John Neff

“I met Charlie Munger in my USC graduate school investment class and had
the opportunity to ask him this important question, 'If I could do one thing to
make myself a better investment professional, what would it be?' He answered,
'Read history! Read history! Read history!' This was among the best pieces
of advice I ever received.” Bob Rodriguez

"There are a lot of people in the financial markets who do not even know there is
such a thing as history. They think financial markets were invented the day they
showed up at Merrill Lynch or Deutsche Bank of wherever, and these people
make fortunes.. For me history is important. To be a long term success in
financial markets you must understand history. The long term success stories
are those who know history either from experience, reading or just
understanding how markets work." Jim Rogers

“Prudence suggests that he [the investor] have an adequate idea of stock market
history, in terms, particularly, of the major fluctuations in its price level and of
the varying relationships between stock prices as a whole and their earnings and
dividends. With this background he may be in a position to form some
worthwhile judgment of the attractiveness or dangers of the market.” Benjamin
Graham

"My advice to young people, if they really want to be successful in this business,
is to learn financial history. Learn history in general and then dig deeper into
financial history and you will not be in such awe of everything that's going on. I
see the same problem in my office. People just don't know any financial history
and they think everything that is happening is unusual. Everything else can be
learned on the job" Joe Rosenberg

“Never stop reading. History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme” Seth Klarman
"I like reading about history, so I know that there always has been something to
worry about (and always will be)." Francois Rochon

"Knowing market history is hugely important not because events repeat

themselves exactly but because patterns of events and the way people who make
up the market react can be typical and predictable" Frank Martin

"You have to have a liberal arts education and a sense of history and biology"
Bruce Berkowitz

"Failing to understand the lessons of history more than anything is what dooms
investors to be victimized repeatedly cycle by cycle." Howard Marks

"Warren [Buffett] stressed to me over and over how much studying business
history has helped him." Alice Schroeder

"Expertise in any field is largely driven by a mental database of experience and

patterns that are recognized by having lived through difficult environments. To
us, studying history is very important." Jim Brilliant

"Nowhere is an appreciation of history more important than in understanding

bubbles" James Montier

"[knowing] History and political science are valuable" Ralph Wanger

"I like reading history of all sorts and think it’s beneficial to investing" Allan
Mecham

"Study the past. Become your own historian" Roy Neuberger

“It’s extremely important to know history, but the trouble is that the big events
in financial history occur only once every few generations. The latest global
financial crisis began in 2008 and the one before that in 1929. That’s a gap of 79
years. So, while memory has the potential to restrain action and induce prudence
by reminding us of tough periods, over time as memory fades the lessons fade as
well.” Howard Marks

"To the open-minded and clear-headed student of history, it is a truism that

defining moments in finance have a cyclical tendency and, in their essence at
least, are rarely without a conceptual precedent" Frank Martin

“I went back in history and I saw these things happening before, for the same
cause/effect relationships. And then I realized that everything, everything that
happens is just "another one of those." Right. The same thing happens. It may be,
I don't know, if you're skiing and you make a turn, that's called skiing, and make
a turn and there is "one of those" and they repeat. How does reality work? What's
the cause/effect relationship? So that if you're encountering "one of those" -- a
learning experience, anything, a birth, a marriage, an economic downturn -- if
you encounter any of those, they have all happened before. A deleveraging. So
that's why we anticipated the deleveraging before the 2008 downturn in the
economy. It's a very good example of what we're talking about.” Ray Dalio

"A systematic attempt to study past events to isolate cause-and-effect

relationships - so as to apply them to gain a better understanding of the present -
is more than simply worthwhile, it's obligatory. No two episodes are alike, but
there is often a common thread or two woven through them." Frank Martin

"My theory and practical application have proved to my satisfaction that

nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in
securities or commodities" Jesse Livermore

"I hate that they don’t teach financial history in business schools. If it was up
to me, I would make financial history and all history a number one
requirement for business schools. Understanding how a spreadsheet works can
be learned on the job pretty easily, but understanding the continuum of
history requires certain intellect. I cannot for the life of me understand why
business schools are not teaching financial history." Jim Tisch

"Contributing to . . . euphoria are two further factors little noted in our time or in
past times. The first is the extreme brevity of the financial memory. . . . There can
be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the
world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is
dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to
appreciate the incredible wonders of the present." John Kenneth Galbraith

"I think to take the next step and be a portfolio manager you need both a sense of
history and a vivid sense of risk" Seth Klarman

"We surely need not be reminded that history is a tool, relevant apart from the
classroom setting, that actually has practical utility - like a head is more than just
a hat rack. History is a teacher in the abstract for those who want to apply it to
the future" Frank Martin

"The amazing thing is that people just don't seem to learn from history" Bruce
Berkowitz

"I believe that awareness of history, in particular, economic history, financial

history, history of how technological improvements and technological
breakthroughs have impacted the world, and history of geography are
important, so I think some history books are a must." Charles de Vaulx

"Where I got a lot of my education from was reading history. I'd go back and
read about Edison, Ford, Rockefeller, J.P. Morgan. The period between 1870-
1920 is really interesting." Marc Andreessen

"It is my belief that one constant in the stock market is human nature. For this
reason, while I do not believe history provides a precise blueprint for the future,
I also do not believe that those who blithely ignore history will have much
success understanding the present" Michael Burry
"I'm a student of history of the financial markets. I think there is a lot to be
gleaned there. It's not a cutting edge piece that gives you the most information,
its respecting other periods that have similarities. No two crisis look the same, so
don't expect the last one to hit next time" Jeffrey Sherman

“We are also students of financial history, convinced that a repeating

mechanism is at work in the markets. We acknowledge the rise and fall of
civilizations and the ebb and flow of the business cycle.” Christopher Bloomstran

“What I believe is everything happens over and over again through history.
[The] World operates like a machine and happens over and over again. If you
can sort of go above yourself and your circumstances and look down at yourself
within your circumstances, within a historical perspective, and then have
agreed upon principles, principals are how to handle things that happen over and
over again. By having that it’s helpful, it allows you to have an independent point
of view, while not being 100% certain but to be defensive” Ray Dalio

"My passion for ancient history and archaeology also gives me perspective. My
interests in the ancient world have given me insights into the modern
world. Investigations into antiquity reveal the extraordinary degree to which
politicians and financiers are repeatedly able to fleece civilians when things go
wrong" Leon Levy

"A good habit is to know the history of our civilization. It will help in identifying
what are probably fads in the markets. The phrase “this too shall pass away”
applies to many “trends” in Wall Street." Francois Rochon

"Everybody always stresses the importance of learning from history: "Those

who don't learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them," the
saying goes. In my experience, most people heed this advice, but only up to a
point. They study the past quite closely and glean as many lessons from it as they
can. But they almost never look back far enough. They confine themselves to the
history of the previous few years or perhaps a decade or two. In other words,
it's not that people don't learn from the past. They do- but only the recent past.
And that can be a deadly error. " Scott Fearon

"If you're limiting yourself to what you experienced, you are going to be in
trouble... I studied the Great Depression, I studied the Weimar
Republic. I studied important events that didn't happen to me" Ray Dalio

"Markets are always a puzzle, and the future of economies and financial markets
is always sheathed in dense clouds which teasingly part for only brief glimpses of
what may lie beyond. One is always looking at history for clues to the future,
and at other data and logic to attempt to fit the puzzle pieces together to create a
plausible view of what that future may bring." Paul Singer

"Though the institutions of society have difficulty learning from history,

individuals can do so" Ed Thorp
"I’m sorry I didn’t read more history. Things always repeat themselves. History
is a great teacher. It’s a great lesson for the future. You can go back and l earn a
lot from history. I’m sorry that I took the route of not having as many courses in
the arts and humanities and history as I would liked to have." Henry Kravis

"One of my favorite quotes, paraphrased, is "Those who cannot remember the

past are condemned to repeat it" by George Santanya." Sam Zell

"Looking back on history is an invaluable way to learn how to analyze trends.

And better still, it teaches you how to anticipate future changes" Jim Rogers

“I think the biggest mistake you can make is to ignore the repetitive nature of
the cyclical pattern. In his book Principles, Ray Dalio talks about how much
analysis he and his partners did, the conclusion of which is the ability to look at
what’s going on in the world or in the market and say, “Oh, that’s another one of
those.” Life becomes very easy when you have studied the past to the extent
that you have seen the recurring patterns and you can recognize them when they
come up again. So I think that’s extremely important. But, the other thing is –
and I think the guiding quote of the book is another one from Mark Twain,
“History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.” History does not repeat. The
cycles are never the same in terms of amplitude, speed, duration, cause, or
ramifications, but there are themes that repeat that can help us to identify and
properly respond to cyclical occurrences.” Howard Marks