Fact 1 is that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that makes a planet warmer than it would be otherwise.

Now,
in Q&A format, we’re ready to examine the evidence that makes this a fact rather than a matter of opinion.

Q1 - How do we know that Fact 1 is really a fact?

Figure 1.4
This diagram explains the greenhouse effect, which makes a planet’s surface and lower atmosphere
warmer than they would be otherwise. The yellow arrows represent visible light, the red arrows
represent infrared light, and the blue dots represent greenhouse gas molecules.
There is no doubt that higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases make
planets warmer, because this fact is based on the simple, well-understood, and well-tested physics of
what we call the greenhouse effect. Figure 1.4 shows how the greenhouse effect works. Notice the
following key ideas:

 The energy that warms Earth comes from sunlight, and in particular from visible light (the kind of
light that our eyes can see). Some sunlight is reflected back to space, and the rest is absorbed
by the surface (land and oceans).
 Earth must ultimately return the energy it absorbs back to space. The returned energy takes the
form of infrared light, which our eyes cannot see.
 Greenhouse gases — which include water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane
(CH4, also commonly called natural gas) — are made up of molecules3 that are particularly
good at absorbing infrared light. Each time a greenhouse gas molecule absorbs a photon (the
technical name for a “piece” of light) of infrared light, it quickly reemits it as another infrared
photon, which may head off in any random direction. This photon can then be absorbed by
another greenhouse gas molecule, which does the same thing.

The net result is that greenhouse gases tend to slow the escape of infrared light from the lower
atmosphere, while their molecular motions heat the surrounding air. In this way, the greenhouse effect
makes the surface and the lower atmosphere warmer than they would be from sunlight alone. The
more greenhouse gases present, the greater the degree of surface warming. A blanket offers a good
analogy. You stay warmer under a blanket not because the blanket itself provides any heat, but
because it slows the escape of your body heat into the cold outside air.

Q - Why haven’t you mentioned nitrogen and oxygen, which make up most of our atmosphere?
The atmosphere is indeed made mostly of nitrogen and oxygen; together, these two gases make up about
98 for nitrogen and 21% for oxygen). However, molecules of nitrogen and oxygen do not absorb infrared light,
and therefore do not contribute to the heating of the surface. In other words, without the relatively small amounts
of infrared-absorbing greenhouse gases (such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) that are present in
our atmosphere, all the infrared light emitted from Earth’s surface would escape directly into space, and our
planet would be frozen over.
In case you are wondering why some molecules can absorb infrared light and others cannot, it is a result of their
structures. In our atmosphere, nitrogen and oxygen both take the form of molecules in which two atoms are
bound together; that is, nitrogen is in the form N2 and oxygen in the form O2. In order to absorb photons of
infrared light, molecules must be able to vibrate and rotate. This turns out to be fairly difficult for molecules with
only two atoms, particularly when both atoms are the same, as in N2 and O2; that is why these molecules do
not contribute to planetary heating. In contrast, vibration and rotation are relatively easy for many molecules with
more than two atoms, which is why water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane (CH4) all absorb
infrared light effectively, making them greenhouse gases.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) is

an international environmental treaty produced at the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held
in Rio de Janeiro from June 3 to 14, 1992. The objective of the treaty is to stabilize
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.[1]

The treaty itself set no mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual
countries and contains no enforcement mechanisms. In that sense, the treaty is
considered legally non-binding. Instead, the treaty provides for updates (called
"protocols") that would set mandatory emission limits. The principal update is the Kyoto
Protocol, which has become much better known than the UNFCCC itself.

The UNFCCC was opened for signature on May 9, 1992, after an Intergovernmental
Negotiating Committee produced the text of the Framework Convention as a report
following its meeting in New York from April 30 to May 9, 1992. It entered into force on
March 21, 1994. As of May 2011, UNFCCC has 194 parties.
One of its first tasks was to establish national greenhouse gas
inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, which were used to
create the 1990 benchmark levels for accession of Annex I countries to the Kyoto
Protocol and for the commitment of those countries to GHG reductions. Updated
inventories must be regularly submitted by Annex I countries.
The UNFCCC is also the name of the United Nations Secretariat charged with
supporting the operation of the Convention, with offices in Haus Carstanjen, Bonn,
Germany. From 2006 to 2010 the head of the secretariat was Yvo de Boer; on May 17,
2010 his successor, Christiana Figueres from Costa Rica has been named. The
Secretariat, augmented through the parallel efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), aims to gain consensus through meetings and the discussion
of various strategies.
The parties to the convention have met annually from 1995 in Conferences of the
Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change. In 1997, the Kyoto
Protocol was concluded and established legally binding obligations for developed
countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.[2]

STABILIZATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS

See also: climate change mitigation

In order to stabilize the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, emissions would need to peak and
decline thereafter.[14] The lower the stabilization level, the more quickly this peak and decline would
need to occur. The emissions associated with atmospheric stabilization varies among different GHGs.
This is because of differences in the processes that remove each gas from the
atmosphere.[15] Concentrations of some GHGs decrease almost immediately in response to emission
reduction, e.g., methane, while others continue to increase for centuries even with reduced emissions,
e.g., carbon dioxide.

All relevant GHGs need to be considered if atmospheric GHG concentrations are to be

stabilized.[4]:9 Human activities result in the emission of four principal GHGs: carbon dioxide (chemical
formula: CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the halocarbons (a group of gases containing
fluorine, chlorine and bromine).[16] Carbon dioxide is the most important of the GHGs that human
activities release into the atmosphere.[5] At present, human activities are adding emissions of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere far faster than they are being removed.[15] This is analogous to a flow of
water into a bathtub.[17] So long as the tap runs water (analogous to the emission of carbon dioxide)
into the tub faster than water escapes through the plughole (the natural removal of carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere), then the level of water in the tub (analogous to the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere) will continue to rise. To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at a
constant level, emissions would essentially need to be completely eliminated.[15] It is estimated that
reducing carbon dioxide emissions 100% below their present level (i.e., complete elimination) would
lead to a slow decrease in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 by 40 parts-per-million (ppm) over the
21st century.

The emissions reductions required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 can be contrasted
with the reductions required for methane. Unlike CO2, methane has a well-defined lifetime in the
atmosphere of about 12 years. Lifetime is defined as the time required to reduce a given perturbation
of methane in the atmosphere to 37% of its initial amount.[15] Stabilizing emissions of methane would
lead, within decades, to a stabilization in its atmospheric concentration. [18]
The climate system would take time to respond to a stabilization in the atmospheric concentration of
CO2.[19] Temperature stabilization would be expected within a few centuries. Sea level rise due thermal
expansion would be expected to continue for centuries to millennia. Additional sea level rise due to ice
melting would be expected to continue for several millennia.