.

INDIVIDUAL INTEGRATED ASSIGNMENT (STAGE II)

Assignment Udunuwara Tea Estate

Topic
K.Nironjan
Student Name
32364
Reg No.

Stage II-(NOVEMBER,2018) Examination

National Diploma in Sales Management (NDSM)

SRI LANKA INSTITUTE OF MARKRTING (SLIM)

(BORELLA)
`

National Diploma in Sales Management (NDSM)

Individual Integrated Assignment
Intake II 2017 - Stage II
Program National Diploma in Sales Management (NDSM)
Stage Stage II (TWO)
Nature of the Assignment Integrated Assignment (Individual) with
Presentation
Examination 25 November 2018
Assignment Submission Period 4 November 2018 - 11 November 2018
Late Submission Period 12 November 2018 - 13 November 2018
Assignment Acceptance time period Assignment Acceptance time period Weekday
Weekday andDate
Presentation Weekend – 8.30am to and Weekend
Notify – 8.30am to
after Assignment 3.00pm
Submission
3.00pm
Email address to send soft copy ndsm@slim.lk

IMPORTANT:

 Assignment should be submitted to SLIM within the Assignment Submission Periods

as indicated above.

 Assignment will not be accepted after the late submission under any circumstances.

 The Assignment should be confronted to the assignment guidelines presented as

per the NDSM Student Handbook (please refer Section Six (06) of the Student
Handbook).

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 Submit the assignment with the spiral bound hard copy.

 Soft copy of your assignment should be sent to above mentioned email address and
you will be receiving an automated reply of receipt of the assignment. If you have not
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must be retained by the student as proof of submitting the assignment.
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and presentation in order to complete the relevant stage in the next examination

Assignment with Presentations

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 submission by the student.

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 and answers.
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Page 2 of 6
 Assignment Topic: Udunuwara Tea Estates

Background

Udunuwara Tea Estates has been producing the finest Ceylon Tea since 1901 from the Golden
Valley located in the central hills of Sri Lanka. Situated at an ideal elevation of 3,000 to 4,000
feet, the tea estates are blessed with the perfect micro climatic conditions and rich soil
composition, all combining to lend the teas their unique qualities. Harvested at precise times
and carefully hand-picked by nimble fingers, the tea at each estate has its own distinctive flavor
and aroma that unlock the rich essence of this heavenly brew.

The pure Ceylon Green Tea from Udunuwara is mild and fresh with leafy notes that leave you
revitalized. Fragrant and smooth, our green tea is expertly produced using special methods of
processing that carefully preserve the unique characteristics of the leaf, locking in the well-
defined flavor and antioxidants that are hallmarks of only the finest of such teas.

The produce of the Udunuwara Tea Estate largely consumed by the Europe and Middle East
consumers, but the MD / Chairman decided that it is high time to capture the local market. The
board of directors have given the consent to market Udunuwara Tea in local market.

In the process you as a NDSM qualified young, energetic personality has been recruited as the
sales manager for local business.
At the initial planning meeting your MD / Chairman request you the following.

TASK ONE

Present a comprehensive recruitment plan for the sales operation in the local Market.

TASK TWO

Specify the Job Design (JD) & Job Specification (JS) for the recruitments that you plan.

TASK THREE

Provide a sales forecast for next financial year and for next 3 years using a logical method.
Page 3 of 6
Note:

Word Count will be based on the content weightage and the word count for this
assignment should be 3000 – 4000 words, excluding cover sheet, content page, references,
appendix & illustrations ( please refer page no 17 of Student Handbook )

Task Content Weightage Word allocation for each task

Task One 20% 900 -1200 words
Task Two 40% 900 -1200 words
Task Three 40% 600 - 800 words
Total 100% 3000 – 4000 words

NOTE – Please note the given (below) Assignment Marking Scheme for Marks Allocation
 Assignment checklist & declaration

This document is intended as a guide to check and improve your assignment. Review your
assignment together with the specific guidelines and criteria (marking schedule) that are
mentioned in the programme handbook given to you.
You are expected to confirm that your assignment fulfills the below requirements. Please tick
(√) in the cages as necessary.

Student Name
Registration No
Cover page
Assignment checklist & declaration form ( This sheet)
Assignment marking scheme
Assignmentis
Table of contents
Body of the assignment
References
Assignment emailed to relevant email address

(You will receive an automated reply of receipt for the assignment. If you
have not received the automated reply, please verify with course
coordinator. The soft copy is only a reference document that will not be
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I’m fully aware that any misleading information provided in the above checklist will lead to the
rejection of my assignment.

I,the undersigned, confirm that I have read and understood the statement about plagiarism
which is outlined in the students’ handbook. I confirm that the work that I have submitted
accompanying this report is wholly my own, and that any quotations or sections of text taken
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therein.

Signature: _________________ Date: _________________

 Assignment Marking Scheme
June 2018

Program National Diploma in Sales Management (NDSM)

Student Registration No

Mark
Criteria
s
Allocated Awarded
Aligning to the purpose of the assignment 20
Some of the answer addresses to the purpose of the question 1-5
This has addressed the purpose of the assignment 6-10
Has addressed the purpose of the assignment coherently 11-15
This has addressed the purpose of assignment comprehensively 16-20
Clarity of expression 20
An attempt to organize in a logical manner 1-5
Satisfactory showing of logical manner and organization 6-10
Shows higher level of Carefully and logically organized 11-15
Shows coherent structure with clearly expressed ideas 16-20
Using examples/evidences 20
Shows a little use of examples 1-5
Some use of examples. Some evaluation attempted 6-10
Some use of examples. Well evaluated 11-15
Shows appropriate examples are fully and reliably evaluated 16-20
Critical analysis of concepts, theories, conclusions 20
Demonstrates limited evidence of critical analysis 1-5
Demonstrates some critical analysis of relevant theory 6-10
Demonstrates application of theory through critical analysis 11-15
Demonstrates application of critical analysis well integrated 16-20
Following assignment guidelines 20
Limited follow-up of assignment guidelines 1-5
Some level of follow-up of assignment guidelines 6-10
Good display of adherence to assignment guidelines 11-15
Excellent adherence to assignment guidelines 16-20

Total 100

Page 8
Special Remarks

Signature of the Examiner

Page 9
Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 12
Task one ...................................................................................................................................................... 13
1.0. Organization .................................................................................................................................... 13
1.1 Sales force structure ........................................................................................................................ 13
1.3 Recruitments .................................................................................................................................... 13
1.5 Man power planning for Udunuwara tea estates ............................................................................ 14
1.6 Internal sources................................................................................................................................ 15
1.7 External sources ............................................................................................................................... 15
1.8 Selection criteria’s of sales persons of UTE ..................................................................................... 16
Task 2 .......................................................................................................................................................... 17
2.0 Udunuwera Sales origination structure .............................................................................................. 17
2.1 Key roles and responsibility ............................................................................................................. 18
2.1.1. Sales Manager Job duties............................................................................................................. 18
2.1.2 Zonal Sales Manager Job Duties: .............................................................................................. 19
2.1.3 Sales Executive Job Duties: .......................................................................................................... 19
2.4 Job Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 20
2.4.1 Job description RSM ...................................................................................................................... 20
Job Title – Regional Sales Manager......................................................................................................... 20
2.4.2 Job description ASM...................................................................................................................... 21
Job Title – Area sales manager................................................................................................................ 21
2.4.3 Job description Key account manager .......................................................................................... 21
Job Title -Key Account Manager ............................................................................................................. 21
2.4.4 Job description of sales executive................................................................................................. 22
Job title-Sales Executive .......................................................................................................................... 22
2.5 Job Specification............................................................................................................................... 22
2.5.1 JS RSM ........................................................................................................................................... 22
2.5.2 JS Area sales manager ................................................................................................................... 23
2.5.3 JS of Key Account manager ........................................................................................................... 23
2.5.4 JS sales Executive .......................................................................................................................... 23
Task 3 .......................................................................................................................................................... 24

Page 10
 1.0..Tea industry in Sri Lanka .................................................................................................................. 24
3.2..Competitor’s in Sri Lanka tea industry. ............................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
3.3 Sales forecasting .............................................................................................................................. 25
3.4 Sales forecasting methods ............................................................................................................... 26
3.5 Qualitative vs. quantitative methods ............................................................................................... 26
3.6 Moving average method .................................................................................................................. 27
3.7 Factors effecting sales forecasts as follows ..................................................................................... 28
Conclusive ................................................................................................................................................... 29
.References ................................................................................................................................................. 30

Page 11
Introduction

Udunuwara Tea Estates has been producing the finest Ceylon Tea since 1901 from the Golden
Valley located in the central hills of Sri Lanka. Situated at an ideal elevation of 3,000 to 4,000
feet, the tea estates are blessed with the perfect micro climatic conditions and rich soil
composition, all combining to lend the teas their unique qualities. Harvested at precise times and
carefully hand-picked by nimble fingers, the tea at each estate has its own distinctive flavor and
aroma that unlock the rich essence of this heavenly brew.

The pure Ceylon Green Tea from Udunuwara is mild and fresh with leafy notes that leave
you revitalized. Fragrant and smooth, our green tea is expertly produced using special methods
of processing that carefully preserve the unique characteristics of the leaf, locking in the well-
defined flavor and antioxidants that are hallmarks of only the finest of such teas.
The produce of the Udunuwara Tea Estate largely consumed by the Europe and Middle East
consumers, but the MD / Chairman decided that it is high time to capture the local market. The
board of directors has given the consent to market Udunuwara Tea in local market.

( Sri Lanka Export Development Board, 2014, Industry Capability Report: Tea Sector)

Page 12
Task one

1.0. Organization
A sales organization is responsible for the sale and distribution of goods and services. It
represents the selling unit as a legal entity. It is responsible for product guarantees and other
rights to recourse; organization structure refers to the design of the sales team and assigning sales
responsibilities amongst different sales people. Keeping in mind varied aspects to reach the
target customers and distribute selling tasks amongst sales personal to gain quick access to the
customer’s .the objective is to ensure adequate attention to the product lines and brands at the
customer level.

1.1 Sales force structure

As the sales manager of UTE want to distribute our tea products all geographical areas in the
country. Then company can follows geographical divisions to allocate tasks amongst sales
people, the territorial sales force structure develops. Each sales person is assigned an exclusive
geographical area to sell the companies tea products to all customers located in that particular
territory. We can clearly mention the job and responsibilities of sales people.it increases their
initiative to cultivate local business and personal bonding. It encourages the sales person to build
customer relationships in the respective geographical area which finally improves sales
effectiveness. Territorial sales structure is helpful when a company has a wide geographical
dispersion of the customer base and each customer group deserves special attention from the
sales people. Then I think territorial sales force structure is very suitable for the UTE.

1.3 Recruitments
“Recruitment is the process of searching the candidates for employment and stimulating them to
apply for jobs in the organization”.
The process of finding and hiring the best-qualified candidate (from within or outside of an
organization) for a job opening, in a timely and cost effective manner. The recruitment process
includes analyzing the requirements of a job, attracting employees to that job, screening and
selecting applicants, hiring, and integrating the new employee to the organization.

Page 13
A process of finding and attracting capable applicants for employment. The process begins when
new recruits are sought and ends when their applications are submitted. The result is a pool of
applications from which new employees are selected

Staffing is also heard in the organizations in the human resource department.it includes planning
for the needs of future employment and fulfilling them through recruiting, selecting, promoting,
laying off and transferring, etc. Staffing is an important activity in sales and marketing
department particularly for the sales force because it is directly responsible for generating
revenues for the organization.

1.5 Man power planning for Udunuwara tea estates

The National Sales Manager is responsible for the company sales achievement with the NSM’s
main objective capture the local market within a short time period. He is monitoring two
Managers such as Zone sales manager, 06 area Sales Managers and Key Accounts Manager. The
area sales manager would be responsible for the operation in area sales team. This total sales
revenue will also be monitored under the National Sales Manager. Area Sales Managers have
assigned to monitor and to achieve the sales target in every region with the contribution of
company Sales Reps. There are 30 respective company Sales Reps in each areas.

Page 14
The candidates may be available inside or outside the organization. Basically, there are two
sources of recruitment i.e., internal and external sources.

(https://www.google.co.in/search?q=source+of+recruitment&source)

1.6 Internal sources

I think internal sources are very suitable for managerial vacancies (02 Zonal manager, 06 Area
manager and key account manager). Best employees can be found within the organization…
When a vacancy arises in the organization, it may be given to an employee who is already on the
pay-roll. Internal sources include promotion, when a higher post is given to a deserving
employee; it motivates all other employees of the organization to work hard. The employees can
be informed of such a vacancy by internal advertisement.

1.7 External sources

I think external sources are very important for the sales rep vacancies. All organizations have to
use external sources for recruitment job positions when existing employees are not enough. More
persons are needed when expansions are undertaken. Then UTE want to find 30 sales
representatives from outside by,

a) Advertisement
b) Colleges and Universities
c) Central Application File
d) Recommendation of Existing Employees

Page 15
Selection is the process of choosing the best which can fulfill the needs of the company.
Selection process is the process of eliminating the less fit candidates when inducted into the
organization will help to reach the desired goals and important because of the production and
performance value companies get by making good hires and the high costs of replacing
employees following bad hires. These considerations are especially heightened for FMCG
businesses.

1.8 Selection criteria’s of sales persons of UTE

 Prospecting skills  Relationship skills

 Presenting skills  Time management skills

 Closing skills  Questioning ability

 Product/industry experience &  Education(SLIM/CIM)

knowledge
 CRM/technology experience
 Industry contacts

 Listening skills

After the selection process of UTE which the new recruits acquire culture and values which
already prevail among the working class of the organization. The process starts soon as the
selected candidates join the firm and learn about the norms, values, and customs of the UTE and
behaving in a way that is quite consistent with the behavior of the employees of UTE.

Page 16
Task 2

2.0 Udunuwera Sales origination structure

Organization means the systematic coordination of the functions essential to achieving
organization objectives. The objective of sales organization, therefore, is the performance of
various activities necessary to promote our green tea brand. The functions of UTE organization
can be classified as follows

There are different sales organizational structures to be applied and I as the National
Sales Manager of UTE would present the following mentioned sales structure for UTE sales
force. This proposed territorial sales force structure has 38 number of sales force and this can be
presented here.

CEO

SALES MANAGER

KEY ACCOUNT
MANAGER

AREA MANAGER AREA MANAGER AREA MANAGER

6 SALES REP 6 SALES REP 6 SALES REP

Page 17
2.1 Key roles and responsibility
a) Sales manager: Sells products by implementing sales plans; supervising sales staff.
b) Zonal sales manager: Sells products by maintaining and expanding customer base;
managing staff.
c) Sales representative: Builds business by identifying and selling prospects; maintaining
relationships with clients

2.1.1. Sales Manager Job duties

a) Determines annual unit and gross-profit plans by implementing marketing strategies;
analyzing trends and results.
b) Establishes sales objectives by forecasting and developing annual sales quotas for regions
and territories; projecting expected sales volume and profit for existing and new products.
c) Implements national sales programs by developing field sales action plans.
d) Maintains sales volume, product mix, and selling price by keeping current with supply and
demand, changing trends, economic indicators, and competitors.
e) Establishes and adjusts selling prices by monitoring costs, competition, and supply and
demand.
f) Completes national sales operational requirements by scheduling and assigning employees;
following up on work results.
g) Maintains national sales staff by recruiting, selecting, orienting, and training employees.
h) Maintains national sales staff job results by counseling and disciplining employees; planning,
monitoring, and appraising job results.
i) Maintains professional and technical knowledge by attending educational workshops;
reviewing professional publications; establishing personal networks; participating in
professional societies.
j) Contributes to team effort by accomplishing related results as needed

Page 18
2.1.2 Zonal Sales Manager Job Duties:
a) Maintaining and increasing sales of your company's products
b) Reaching the targets and goals set for your area
c) Establishing, maintaining and expanding your customer base
d) Servicing the needs of your existing customers
e) Increasing business opportunities through various routes to market
f) Setting sales targets for individual reps and your team as a whole
g) Recruiting and training sales staff
h) Allocating areas to sales representatives
i) Developing sales strategies and setting targets
j) Monitoring your team's performance and motivating them to reach targets
k) Compiling and analyzing sales figures
l) Possibly dealing with some major customer accounts yourself
m) Collecting customer feedback and market research
n) Reporting to sales managers
o) Keeping up to date with products and competitors

2.1.3 Sales Executive Job Duties:

a) Identifies business opportunities by identifying prospects and evaluating their position in the
industry; researching and analyzing sales options.
b) Sells products by establishing contact and developing relationships with prospects;
recommending solutions.
c) Maintains relationships with clients by providing support, information, and guidance;
researching and recommending new opportunities; recommending profit and service
improvements.
d) Identifies product improvements or new products by remaining current on industry trends,
market activities, and competitors.

e) Prepares reports by collecting, analyzing, and summarizing information.

f) Maintains quality service by establishing and enforcing organization standards.

Page 19
g) Maintains professional and technical knowledge by attending educational workshops;
reviewing professional publications; establishing personal networks; benchmarking state-of-
the-art practices; participating in professional societies.

h) Contributes to team effort by accomplishing related results as needed. (malik)

(https://www.google.com )

2.4 Job Analysis

Job analysis is the procedure through which you determine the duties of these positions and the
characteristics, skills and knowledge of the people who should be hired for them .The analysis
produces information on job requirements, which is then used for developing job descriptions
(what the job entails) and job specifications (what kind of people to hire for the job)
Job Description – is organized written statements of the duties and responsibilities of the
job, working conditions, reporting relationships, performance standards and compensation
packages for the respective job titles. Preparation of a job description is must before a recruiting
drive is undertaken. It specially three things as follows.
a) What is to be done?
b) Why is to be done?
c) How is to be done?

2.4.1 Job description RSM

Job Title – Regional Sales Manager
Primary Job Objective – Achieve set turnover annual d monthly
Secondary Objective – Achieve distribution Number / Achieve Market Share and visibility
Reporting Authority – National Sales Manager
Duties and Responsibility – Responsible for overall stores and sales ensure high level of
customer service and support
On-going employee orientation and training and professional development and motivation and
support.
High Level of Product service knowledge.
Maintain professional appurtenance and attitude at all time

Page 20
Performance Criteria – Actual Sales vs. Target Sales
Actual Day call vs. Target Day call
Remuneration – Salary is negotiable

2.4.2 Job description ASM

Job Title – Area sales manager
Primary Job Objective – Achieve set turnover annual d monthly
Secondary Objective – Achieve distribution Number set of team / Achieve availability and
visibility
Reporting Authority –Regional Sales Manager
Duties and Responsibility – Responsible for overall stores and sales ensure high level of
customer service and support
On-going employee orientation and training and professional development and motivation and
support.
High Level of Product service knowledge.
Maintain professional appurtenance and attitude at all time
Performance Criteria – Actual Sales vs. Target Sales
Actual Day call vs. Target Day call
Remuneration – Salary is negotiable

2.4.3 Job description Key account manager

Job Title -Key Account Manager
Primary Objective-Achieve set turnover target to the year
Secondary objective-business development, conducting visibility and responsible for
outstanding, maintaining good public relationship with key customers.
Reporting authority –for NSM
Duties and responsibilities-Business development, developing new products, responsible for
outstanding
Performance Criteria-new product trail rate, actual payment collection rate of stock replacement,
stock position with wholesale vs. Actual sales drop.
Remuneration – Salary is negotiable

Page 21
2.4.4 Job description of sales executive
Job title-Sales Executive
Primary Objective-Turnover the target to the year.
Secondary Objective –Achieve market share, achieve distribution number, maintaining customer
relationship,
Reporting authority-ASM & RSM
Duties and responsibilities-Arrange the self-display, collect the information of stock situation,
collect payment and pay attention to the customers complains, make customer relationship.
Performance criteria-actual sales vs. Target sales actual calls a day vs. Target calls a day.
Remuneration – Salary is Basic + Incentives + Allowances
2.5 Job Specification – is a document that prescribes the minimum acceptable quality of the
salesperson that is necessary for a job to be done in a desired way. Job description leads to the
preparation of job specification because duties and responsibilities mentioned in the former will
guide the organization to decide on Knowledge, Skill, Aptitude and personality profile requited
to perform the job properly.

2.5.1 JS RSM
Age Requirement – 30 to 35 years
Only for the male candidates
Valid driving licensee
Should have SLIM part /Full qualification or Marketing/Sales related degree or diploma in
recognized university
Should have 02 -03 years’ experience in similar capacity
Should have good speaking and writing ability – Sinhala /English
Should have be a good team worker
(https://www.google.com )
(malik)

Page 22
2.5.2 JS Area sales manager
Age Requirement – 28 to 30 years
Only for the male candidates
Valid riding licensee
Should have SLIM part /Full qualification or Marketing/Sales related degree or diploma in
recognized university
Should have 02 -03 years’ experience in similar capacity
Should have good speaking and writing ability – Sinhala /English

2.5.3 JS of Key Account manager

Age Requirement – 30 to 35 years
Onfor the male candidates
Valid driving licensee
Should have SLIM part /Full qualification or Marketing/Sales related degree or diploma in
recognized university
Should have 02 -03 years’ experience in similar capacity
Should have good speaking and writing ability – Sinhala /English

2.5.4 JS sales Executive

Age Requirement -below 27 years
Only for the male candidates
Should have three passes in A/L or part or full qualification of SLIM or recognized university
Should have good communication skills
Should have be a good team player.
Age Requirement – 30 to 35 years
Only for the male candidates
Valid driving licensee
Should have SLIM part /Full qualification or Marketing/Sales related degree or diploma in
recognized university
Should have 02 -03 years’ experience in similar capacity
Should have good speaking and writing ability – Sinhala /English

Page 23
Task 3

1.0..Tea industry in Sri Lanka

Tea production is one of the main sources of foreign exchange for Sri Lanka (formerly called
Ceylon), and accounts for 2% of GDP, contributing over US $1.5 billion in 2013 to the economy
of Sri Lanka. It employs, directly or indirectly, over 1 million people, and in 1995 directly
employed 215,338 on tea plantations and estates. In addition, tea planting by smallholders is the
source of employment for thousands whilst it is also the main form of livelihoods for tens of
thousands of families. Sri Lanka is the world's fourth-largest producer of tea. In 1995, it was the
world's leading exporter of tea (rather than producer), with 23% of the total world export, but it
has since been surpassed by Kenya. The highest production of 340 million kg was recorded in
2013, while the production in 2014 was slightly reduced to 338 million kg.
The humidity, cool temperatures, and rainfall of the country's central highlands provide a
climate that favors the production of high-quality tea. On the other hand, tea produced in low-elevation
areas such as Matara, Galle and Ratanapura districts with high rainfall and warm temperature has high
level of astringent properties. The tea biomass production itself is higher in low-elevation areas. Such
tea is popular in the Middle East. The industry was introduced to the country in 1867 by James Taylor, a
British planter who arrived in 1852. Firstly consider the total tea market and who the main players are in
local market. Following figures consider that,

Total tea market in last financial year (2017) is 307Kg millions.

3.1competitors market share,

COMPANY BRAND MARKET SHARE

WATAWALA 25.4
WATAWALA RANKAHATA 7
CESTA 4
LAOJEE 22.8
UNILEVER
CEYLON TEA 6.5
BOGAWANTHALAWA 4.8
MALIBAN 2.9
VIJAYA 1.8
SENRA 1.4
OTHERS 23.4
TOTAL 100

Page 24
3.2..Competitor’s in Sri Lanka tea industry.

(https://www.google.com/search?q=sales+structure+example )

The finest, young tea leaves are freshly plucked and treated using traditional Chinese methods, to
extract the best quality green teas. Medical research suggests the medicinal value of fresh green
tea which is a great supplement to a healthy diet and lifestyle, primarily due to the presence of
anti-oxidants such as polyphenols with the strength to lower cholesterol and reduce the risk of
heart diseases. Sri Lanka product assortment consists of natural & flavored Green Teas.
Ceylon green tea manufacturers & Ceylon green tea suppliers cater to 15% of the global green
market.

Review of Sri Lanka tea market in 2017 and outlook for 2018 ... Total Global Green Tea
production has raised from 1.736 billion in 2015 to 1.788 billion in 2016. .... On the other hand
India is gaining a larger share of the market.

3.3 Sales forecasting

Is the process of using a company’s sales records over the past years to predict the short-term or
long-term sales performance of that company in the future? This is one of the pillars of proper
financial planning. As with any prediction-related process, risk and Uncertainties are
unavoidable in Sales Forecasting too.

Page 25
3.4 Sales forecasting methods
Forecasting methods shown as follows

3.5 Qualitative vs. quantitative methods

Qualitative forecasting techniques are subjective, based on the opinion and judgment of
consumers and experts; they are appropriate when past data are not available. They are usually
applied to intermediate- or long-range decisions. Examples of qualitative forecasting methods are

a) Jury of executive opinions

b) Delphi method
c) Sales force composite method
d) Survey of buyers intentions
e) Leading indications method

Quantitative forecasting models are used to forecast future data as a function of past data. They
are appropriate to use when past numerical data is available and when it is reasonable to assume
that some of the patterns in the data are expected to continue into the future. These methods are
usually applied to short- or intermediate-range decisions. Examples of quantitative forecasting
methods are

a) Moving average method

b) Exponential smoothing method
c) Time series analysis
d) Regression analysis

Page 26
3.6 Moving average method
The method suggests drawing an average of the sales of a number of years to predict the sales of
coming period. The objective is to smooth out the fluctuations and provide a close estimate of
the forecasted sales. This method can be better understood from the following,

Period Sales

2016 10 mill

2017 12 mill

2018 11 mill

There for the sales in period 2019 wii be

2016 + 2017 + 2018

2019 =
3

10mill+ 12mill+ 11mill

2019 =
3
2019 = 11mill

12mil+11mil+11mil
2020 =
3
2020 = 11.33mil

11mil+11mil+11.33mil
2021 =
3
2021 = 11.11mil

So the sales of the predicting three years are considered to forecast the sales of the year of
interest. This is a very simple method and the calculation for this is easy too. When the market is
stable for a considerable period of time it gives an accurate estimate of sales.

Page 27
3.7 Factors effecting sales forecasts as follows
a) Fluctuations in business environment: Cyclical or seasonal fluctuations in business.
b) Future state of economy: Price rice, entry of foreign firms, changes in demand, market and
sales potentials, interest rate fluctuations, foreign exchange.
c) Political condition of the country: Change of government, external trade relations with
foreign countries, Foreign policy in the country.
d) Market characteristics :Taste and preferences of consumers, buying powers, market
competitions, terms conditions of distributers
e) Situational factors: Unpredictable future events such as natural calamities, large –scale
economic recession, wars, etc. have an impact on market stability and should be considered
in forecasting.

(https://www.slideshare.net/ChamalNandika/tea-industry-in-sri-lanka)

Page 28
Conclusive
I would pleasure to take this opportunity to thank all of NDSM course lectures and all of SLIM
staff for the great assistance given to me. Also I would like to continue my further PG Diploma
in marketing with this institution.

I would like to say end of this assignment, I have been able to improve my knowledge on
recruitment process, selection process, Job analysis, JD and JS and other wise sales forecasting
methods and how is the contribution of Sri Lankan to the global tea market.

The sales manager (local market) in UTE can achieve the expected sales distribution network
increase the market share with correct decision of management tools.

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.References
Sri Lanka Export Development Board, 2014, Industry Capability Report: Tea Sector. (n.d.).

https://www.google.co.in/search?q=source+of+recruitment&source. (n.d.).

https://www.google.com . (n.d.).

https://www.google.com/search?q=sales+structure+example . (n.d.).

https://www.slideshare.net/ChamalNandika/tea-industry-in-sri-lanka. (n.d.).

malik, p. k. (n.d.). sales management.

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