Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Your company bids for two contracts. You believe that the probability of
getting contract 1 is 0.8. If you get contract 1, the probability that you also
get contract 2 will be 0.2, and if you don’t get contract 1, the probability
that you get contract 2 will be 0.3.
a) Are the outcomes of the two contract bids independent? Explain.
b) Draw the probability tree.
c) Find the probability that you get both contracts.
d) Find the probability that you get neither contract.
e) Let X be the number of contracts you get. Find the probability model
for X.
f) Find the expected value and standard deviation of X.
Chapter 9
Random Variables and
Probability Distributions
9.3 Adding and Subtracting Random
Variables (1 of 10)
Our example insurance company expected to pay out an average of
$200 per policy, with a standard deviation of about $3868. The expected
profit then was $500 − $200 = $300 per policy. Suppose that the
company decides to lower the price of the premium by $50 to $450. It’s
pretty clear that the expected profit would drop an average of $50 per
policy, to $450 − $200 = $250. This is an example of changing a
random variable by a constant.
E( X c ) = E ( X ) c,
Var ( X c ) = Var ( X ),and
SD( X c ) = SD( X ).
Multiplying X by a constant a:
E (aX ) = aE ( X ),and
Var (aX ) = a 2Var ( X ).
SD(aX ) = a SD( X ).
E ( X Y ) = E ( X ) E (Y ).
Note: we always add the Variances (even when subtracting the Random
Variables)
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Canada Inc.
9.3 Adding and Subtracting Random
Variables (7 of 10)
Illustration: The expected annual payout per insurance policy is $200
and the variance is $14,960,000. If the payout amounts are doubled,
what are the new expected value and variance?
E ( 2 X ) = 2E ( X ) = 2 200 = $400
Var ( 2 X ) = 22Var ( X ) = 4 14,960,000 = 59,840,000
E ( X + Y ) = E ( X ) + E (Y ) = 2 200 = $400
Var ( X + Y ) = Var ( X ) + Var (Y ) = 2 14,960,000 = 29,920,00
Note: The expected values are the same but the variances are different.
Notice that the correlation affects the variance and hence the standard
deviation of the random variable, but it does not affect the expected
value.
Correlation not only affects the difference between two random variables;
it also affects their sum.
m n
One of the important requirements for Bernoulli trials is that the trials be
independent.
( x)
Example evaluating n : For 2 successes in 5 trials,
5 5! (5 4 3 2 1) (5 4)
2 2!(5 − 2)! (2 1 3 2 1) = (2 1) = 10.
= =
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Canada Inc.
9.6 The Binomial Distribution - Example
Suppose Google tests five websites. What’s the probability
that exactly two of them have problems (two “successes”)?
We are interested in the number of successes in the five trials, which
we’ll denote by X. We want to find P(X = 2).
Whenever the random variable of interest is the number of successes in
a series of Bernoulli trials, it’s called a binomial random variable.
It takes two parameters to define this Binomial probability distribution:
the number of trials, n, and the probability of success, p.
Suppose that, in this phase of development, 10% of the sites exhibited
some sort of problem, so that p = 0.10. Exactly two successes in five
trials means two successes and three failures.
How many ways can you have one success, S, and hence four
failures, F, out of five websites?
10
P ( X = x ) = 0.5 x x 0.510− x
x
Mean: = np = 10 x 0.5 = 5
P( X x ) = 1 − P( X x )
P( X x ) = P( X x − 1 )
P( X x ) = 1 − P( X x ) = 1 − P( X x − 1 )
P( x1 X x2 ) = P( X x2 ) − P( X x1 − 1 )
P( X = n ) = p n
P( X = 0 ) = ( 1 − p )n = q n Copyright © 2018 Pearson Canada Inc.
9.6 The Binomial Distribution - Rules
0.3000
0.2500
0.2000
0.1500
0.1000
0.0500
0.0000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Canada Inc.
10 10 −5
P(X = 5) = (0.40) 5
(0.60)
5
10!
= (0.01024) (0.07776) = 0.2007
5!(10 − 5)!
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Canada Inc.
P(X = x)
0.3000
0.2508
0.2500 P(X = 5) = 0.2007
0.2150
0.2007
0.2000
0.1500
0.1209
0.1115
0.1000
0.0060 0.0106
0.0016 0.0001
0.0000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Canada Inc.