Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences

ISSN: 0045-0618 (Print) 1834-562X (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tajf20

Estimation of the time since death in decomposed

bodies found in Australian conditions

Jarvis Hayman & Marc Oxenham

To cite this article: Jarvis Hayman & Marc Oxenham (2016): Estimation of the time since death
in decomposed bodies found in Australian conditions, Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences,
DOI: 10.1080/00450618.2015.1128972

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00450618.2015.1128972

Published online: 08 Feb 2016.

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 Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences, 2016
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00450618.2015.1128972

Estimation of the time since death in decomposed bodies found in

Australian conditions
Jarvis Hayman and Marc Oxenham*

School of Archaeology & Anthropology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

(Received 15 November 2015; accepted 1 December 2015)
Downloaded by [Australian National University] at 14:24 09 February 2016

This paper proposes a new method for estimating time since death (TSD) in
individuals found between 0 and 14 days subsequent to death indoors. The method
is retrospective and involved (1) access to autopsy (and other) reports held by
Australia’s National Coronial Information System (NCIS); (2) selection of cases in
the NCIS that included detailed descriptions of the degree of decomposition of
various body organs as well as reliable information on TSD; (3) development of a
systematic and quantitative way of scoring the degree of decomposition in body
organs (the total body decomposition score, or TBS); (4) development of models to
accurately estimate TSD from determinations of TBS; and (5) testing of these mod-
els. A series of Australian State and Territory as well as winter and summer season
specific models for estimating TSD were generated. These models, particularly those
based on TBS, are accurate to within several hours to half a day of death in most
instances. While these models are regionally specific, the methodology can be used
on any appropriate data set to generate TSD estimation equations.
Keywords: postmortem interval; organ decomposition; death indoors

Introduction
The fate of the human body after death has fascinated enquirers for millennia, while
objective research into the causes and nature of human decomposition has only
occurred in the last two centuries. Dr John Davy1, recording the temperature in
deceased soldiers in Ceylon (Sri Lanka) in 1839, observed that attention to the tempera-
ture and environment where a body is found would be useful in estimating the time
since death (TSD). This is as true today as it was then. After nearly two centuries of
research, it is only possible to provide an approximate TSD.
At the present time the most accurate method is Henssge’s nomogram, which still has
an error rate of ± 1.5 hours at 7 hours and ± 2.5 hours at 11 hours after death2. The most
accurate assessment of a biochemical marker which reflects the TSD is the measurement
of vitreous potassium from the eye. However, the normal vitreous potassium concentra-
tion in life is unknown, cannot be measured and there is an increasing error rate as time
passes with this method; up to approximately ± 9.5 hours at 40 hours post-mortem3.
Once putrescent decomposition progresses to skeletonisation, estimation of the TSD
becomes even more difficult because an increasing number of factors affect the rate of
decomposition. These include intrinsic factors such as the physical and diseased state of the
body4, as well as extrinsic factors such as temperature5,6, the environment in which the body

*Corresponding author. Email: marc.oxenham@anu.edu.au

© 2016 Australian Academy of Forensic Sciences

 2 J. Hayman and M. Oxenham

is found5,7,8, insects5,9 and animal scavenging10. From 48 hours after death forensic
entomology is frequently the only way of determining the TSD with any accuracy11. Quan-
titative measurement, i.e. the factoring of the major variable of temperature and the numeri-
cal grading of body decomposition as it progresses, into mathematical equations as a means
of improving the estimation of the TSD, has only recently been emphasised12.
Early attempts at staging the decomposition process were made by Mégnin (1894,
cited in Ref.13), who recognised eight stages; Fuller14 used three and Howden (1950,
cited in Ref.13) preferred two. Payne9 recognised decomposition as a continuous pro-
cess and described six stages. He also found a defined insect succession at each stage
and that carcasses exposed to insects decomposed more rapidly. Galloway and col-
league’s15 retrospective study of 189 bodies found in various environments in southern
Arizona provided guidelines for the estimation of TSD based on average decay rates in
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each environment. In this study not only was the process of decomposition numerically
staged but, for the first time, various descriptive categories were listed within each
stage. In this way an estimation of the time when the changes would occur for a body
found in a specific locality could be deduced.
The concept of Accumulated Degree Days (ADDs), first introduced as a measure of
thermal units by Arnold16,17 over half a century ago, was later employed as a measure
of cumulative thermal energy to chart insect development18. A subsequent modification
by Vass and colleagues6 defined ADDs as the sum of the average daily temperatures in
degrees centigrade above 0ºC for however long the corpse had been decomposing. A
direct correlation was found between the stages of decomposition and VFA concentra-
tions and these were the same for any total of ADDs, regardless of the subject or the
season of the year.
Megyesi et al.19 published a retrospective study in which, for the first time, decom-
position was quantifiably staged and treated as a semi-continuous dependent variable
that correlated with temperature, the independent variable, as measured by ADDs. Soft
tissue decomposition was recognised as a sequential process, able to be numerically
graded from photographs which, when summated, gave a Total Body Score (TBS).
ADDs were calculated using data from the weather station nearest to the location where
each body was found. The quantitative analysis plotted TBS as the dependent variable
against the post-mortem interval (PMI) and ADD as the independent variables. The
relationships were not linear but, by log transforming both the ADD and PMI and
squaring the TBS, an effective linear relationship was found from which an equation
could be produced and the PMI calculated. The publication of this paper stimulated
researchers to use the concepts of ADDs and numerical grading systems of decomposi-
tion in order to quantify the relationship between the rate of decomposition and temper-
ature as the main variable20–22. However, at present there is no standard quantification
of body decomposition. Most approaches attempt to quantify the decomposition process
as it affects the external appearance of a cadaver.
Decomposition scores have also been devised for pigs21 rabbits22 and humans19,
but comparison between species may diminish accuracy23. If a quantitative estimate of
decomposition is to be of practical use it must be recognised that decomposition is a
continuous dynamic process affecting not only the external appearance of a body but
also a holistic one affecting all internal body organs. If a body decomposition score
can be devised that takes these factors into account, and is easily employed, then it
may be useful forensically. This study proposes a new body scoring system, based on
the assessment of Australian records for 239 human cases, that incorporates these fac-
tors and which may be used quantitatively to estimate the post-mortem interval.
 Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences 3

Methods and materials

This research involved (1) access to a range of reports held by Australia’s National
Coronial Information System (NCIS)24; (2) selection of cases in the NCIS that included
detailed descriptions of the degree of decomposition of various body organs as well as
reliable information on time since death (TSD); (3) development of a systematic and
quantitative way of scoring the degree of decomposition in body organs (the total body
decomposition score, or TBS); (4) development of models to accurately estimate TSD
from determinations of TBS; and (5) testing of these models.

Ethics approval and the NCIS

Ethics approval for this research was granted by the Human Research Ethics Committee
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of the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine, and the Australian National University
Ethics Committee. Until recently Australia was unique in the world in having a National
Coronial Information System24 which is a national internet-based data storage and retrie-
val system for Australian coronial cases, based at the Victorian Institute of Forensic
Medicine (VIFM) in Melbourne. It commenced collecting data in 2000 and its main aim
is to assist coroners by allowing them to review previous coronial cases that may be
similar to current cases under investigation. Each case is recorded in a standard format
and all cases contain police and autopsy reports. Where applicable, a coroner’s finding
and toxicology reports are also included. Permission was granted to access all closed
cases, i.e. those cases in which a coroner has either dispensed with a hearing or handed
down his findings, for the states of Victoria, New South Wales (NSW), Tasmania, the
Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and the Northern Territory (NT). While, in principle,
all states provide data to the NCIS they maintain the right to approve or deny access to
their respective files. Access to cases from Western Australia, Queensland and South
Australia was denied by the respective authorities of these states.

Case selection
A search of the NCIS was carried out in order to identify cases where some level of
decomposition was evident for bodies found in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, the Northern
Territory and the ACT for the years 2000 to 2010. A total of 4259 cases were selected
for more detailed analysis (Table 1). An unforeseen outcome was that the majority of
bodies found decomposing were in houses or units. Those found were often subjects of
social isolation, were elderly, had no known relatives or had isolated themselves from
family and friends as a result of divorce, substance abuse, personality problems or men-
tal disability25,26. Incidentally, only eight bodies were buried, all as a result of criminal

Table 1. Total number of cases in the NCIS database (between 2000–2010) for which there was
some degree of decomposition recorded.

State/Territory No. of cases

New South Wales 2136
Victoria 1542
Tasmania 184
Northern Territory 307
ACT 90
Total 4259
 4 J. Hayman and M. Oxenham

activity, between 2000 and 2007. It was decided that the most useful approach would
be to formulate a method of estimating the TSD in human bodies found decomposed in
houses or units.
The police and coroners’ reports of these 4259 cases were examined in detail.
Only in 1479 of these cases could the exact location where the decomposed body
was found (i.e. indoors) be determined with certainty. Of these 1479 cases, 1341 were
selected where the police and coroners’ reports were sufficiently detailed to provide
an estimated TSD to within 24 hours or less (Table 2). The percentage of bodies
found between 0 and 14 days was similar in Victoria, NSW and Tasmania (76.2, 76.7
and 69.4% respectively) with the majority being found between 0 and 7 days. This
differed in the NT where 91.1% were found between 0 and 14 days and 86.1%
between 0 and 7 days. In the ACT, 58.1% were found between 0 and 14 days and
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35.5% between 0 and 7 days.

Knowledge of the indoor location of each case was identified as an important factor
as retrospective data on temperature and humidity could be sourced from local weather
stations to assist in modelling TSD. However, while both weather station temperature
and humidity data were used in initial modelling (see Ref. 27), it was found that these
data had minimal to no beneficial effect in estimating TSD and these data are not
reported in this paper. Notwithstanding, temperature is factored into the modelling in
terms of separate winter and summer models, as well as State or Territory specific
models.
A detailed examination of the 1341 autopsy reports was carried out in order to iso-
late those that could be of value in analysing the nature and rate of decomposition of a
body and its various organs. This was possible because of the standard format of
autopsy reports and the descriptions of the different stages of decomposition of the
body and its organs, even though the descriptions varied to some degree between
the various reporting pathologists. Ultimately, we cannot control for the variability in
the detail and accuracy of reporting in autopsy reports, and ideally future research in
this area will need to address this issue.
It was noted that the external appearance of the body and the appearance of some
organs, namely the brain, heart, liver and spleen, altered with time in a sequential man-
ner as they decomposed. A numerical grading system, quantifying the stages of decom-
position of the external body and the internal organs, was compiled so that a
comparison could be made, not only between the stages of decomposition in the same
body, but also between different bodies at different times. Table 3 outlines the criteria
used to determine the stage (score) of decomposition for four internal organs and the
external appearance of the body. In practice, a score is determined for each body organ,
and the external body appearance, at autopsy and then summated to provide a Total
Body Score (TBS) for that individual. For the purposes of this study all four internal
organs are required to establish a TBS. However, we also examine the value of using
only the score of the external appearance of a decomposing body in estimating the
TSD.
Autopsy reports were selected where the police and coroner’s finding reports
enabled a reasonably accurate, although in most cases not exact, time to be deduced
between death and discovery. This reduced the number of useful reports and they were
further reduced by selecting those cases in which the autopsy gave detailed descriptions
of the stages of decomposition of the various organs. Further, it was important that the
sample only included anatomically complete bodies that were not affected by fire,
chemicals or other extraneous modifying factors. This process finally produced a
 Downloaded by [Australian National University] at 14:24 09 February 2016

Table 2. Cases (from Table 1) where the TSD (and time since discovery) could be determined (by State and Territory).

NSW (627) Victoria (533) Tasmania (49) NT (101) ACT (31)

Days No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %
≤1 15 2.4 10 1.9 1 2.0 6 5.9 1 3.2
1-7 369 58.9 273 51.2 28 57.1 81 80.2 10 32.3
8-14 97 15.5 123 23.1 5 10.2 5 5.0 7 22.6
15-21 51 8.1 41 7.7 6 12.2 5 5.0 3 9.7
22-28 26 4.1 20 3.8 2 4.1 2 2.0 3 9.7
28+ 69 11.0 66 12.4 7 14.3 2 2.0 1 3.2
35+ 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 19.4
Totals 627 100.0 533 100.1 49 99.9 101 100.1 31 100.1

Found 61.2%: 0-7 days 53.1%: 0-7 days 59.1%: 0-7 days 86.1%: 0-7 days 35.5%: 0-7 days
15.5%: 8-14 days 23.1%: 8-14 days 10.2%: 8-14 days 5%: 8-14 days 22.6%: 8-14 days
Longest 2yrs 7mths 12yrs 127 days 5 cases between 21-47 days 100 days
2yrs 8.5mths
Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences

300 days
5
 6 J. Hayman and M. Oxenham

Table 3. Criteria (at autopsy) used to assess the degree of decomposition affecting the external
body, brain, heart, liver and spleen (a score of 1 indicating least amount of decomposition).

Score External Body Brain Heart Liver Spleen

1 Rigor mortis Appears Pericardium Capsule intact Capsule intact
present or waning normal smooth,
glistening
Body at ambient Extracts Myocardium Firm, reddish Reddish brown
temperature without dark brown / brown colour colour, firm
fragmenting red & firm
Skin pallid Sections into Myocardium Cut surface firm, Cut surface
thin slices sections smooth, red- firm & normal
readily brown appearance
No bloating Internal Gas bubbles on
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anatomy microscopy
clear

2 Rigor mortis Surface Gas in Whole organ & Capsule intact.

absent softening pericardial cut surface Organ soft &
sac & softening flabby
chambers
Livor mortis Sulci & gyri Heart feels Capsule intact Cut surface
present, not fixed separate on soft flabby &
manipulation distorts when
cut
Lower abdomen Brain able to Myocardium
pale green be removed cut surface
& sectioned soft, paler red
Slight focal Shearing of Internal
marbling tissue when anatomy
sectioned distinct
Bloating
beginning; Purging
beginning

3 Livor mortis, Very soft but Autolytic Whole organ & Capsule
widespread, fixed not yet fluid in cut surface soft, wrinkles &
liquid pericardial flabby splits easily
sac
Widespread green Surface Gas in the Cut surface grey / Whole organ is
coloured abdomen colour grey chambers; green or pale flabby
or green Heart flabby
& soft
Some skin blisters Sulci & gyri Pericardial fat reddish brown, Cut surface
& slippage flattened & doughy, dark gelatinous when dark red, plum
blurred yellow cut colour &
Bloating at the Lobes Myocardium Gas bubbles gelatinous
maximum separate on cut surface visible in the
removal soft, difficult substance
to section &
paler red in
colour
Focal marbling, Large slice Cardiac
profuse purging sections; valves soft
shearing
occurs
Facial features Internal
obscured & anatomy not
darkening clear

(Continued)
 Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences 7

Table 3. (Continued).
Score External Body Brain Heart Liver Spleen
4 Generalised green- Tissue is a Heart reduced Capsule intact Capsule
purple-brown thick paste in weight, disintegrates
consistency gelatinous easily
Bloating receding Brain Liquefied fat Fungi or Organ
disintegrates around the microbes on disintegrates
when dura heart capsule or in when removed
incised the vessels,
Skin slippage & Grey, green Epi & indicated by Parenchyma
peeling widespread or purple endocardium white flecks mostly liquid
colour decomposed Gas bubbles with only a
Maximum Brain only Gas & fluid under the capsule few solid
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marbling removable in epi-& elements

piecemeal myocardium
Dry peripheries, No Cardiac Parenchyma
sunken orbits recognisable valves gelatinous or
anatomical decomposed; pasty when cut
detail Coronary with gas filled
arteries spaces resembling
obscured a sponge
Partial avulsion of
hair & nails

5 Widespread black Brain liquid, Heart soft & Liver has shrunk A small
skin colour small pieces liquefying shrunken mass
of solid only
Bloating receded, Cerebral Poor Capsule wrinkled, A few small
abdomen scaphoid vessels anatomical discoloured, semi-solid
unidentifiable detail infected with elements only
Skin, parchment Brain Separation of microorganisms if
texture & dry; substance pericardium mummifying;
Digits partly flows out and liquefying or
mummified epicardium spongy with gas
difficult filled spaces if
Hair & nails Upper cord Endo- & putrefying.
avulsed may be myocardium
decomposed very liquid
Mould, patchy skin Valves &
& tissue loss coronary
arteries
obscured

6 Much skin & Remnant Heart a Whole organ is Unidentifiable,

tissue loss liquid or shrivelled, shrivelled & dry complete
paste only small mass or or a liquid, disintegration
an amorphous gelatinous
liquid mass amorphous mass
Organs absent or
shrivelled, dry
Mummified
residual tissue;
Bones exposed
Cranium may be
disarticulated from
the cervical
vertebrae
 8 J. Hayman and M. Oxenham

database of 239 cases for analysis from all the States and Territories except the ACT
where the sample was too small.

Statistical modelling and testing

Regression (including multiple) modelling was carried out using SPSS v. 20 with TSD
as the dependent variable and the TBS as the independent variable. Reported output
included r, r2 and adjusted r2 values for the models, in addition to standard significance
testing of the models (i.e. F statistic and p values).
To further test the accuracy of these models, seven decomposed bodies all found
indoors and not used in developing the TSD estimation models were examined by one
of us (JH) at the VIFM in June 2010. In all cases the actual TSD was known with rea-
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sonable certainty. Because the bodies were discovered in Victoria, the Victoria and
Southern States equations were used. Although the bodies were discovered in winter,
the winter equation was not used as (will be shown below) they have lower predictive
power due to the relatively small sample sizes available for developing these models.
Estimated TSD was also compared with the estimate when the External Body Score
(EBS) alone was used.

Results
Modelling time since death
Bivariate analyses of TSD and TBS was carried out for each data set: total combined
data set (n = 239), data sets for each State and Territory, and combined State summer
(n = 68) and winter (n = 25) data sets (see Table 4). Considering the total combined
dataset of 239 cases as an example, the correlation coefficient (r = 0.874, r² = 0.764)
indicates a good correlation between TSD and TBS with 76.4% of the determination of
the TSD being accounted for by the TBS (F = 766.593, p < 0.001). However, 23.6%
of the determination of the TSD is accounted for by some other variable or variables.
There is no indication from these figures what these variables may be. The adjusted r²
value indicates the loss of predictive power, or shrinkage, if the model were applied to
the population as a whole, whereas r² only indicates the loss of predictive power of the

Table 4. Descriptions of the modelling of each dataset (by state and season).

Total Southern states NSW Victoria Tasmania NT Summer Winter

(n=239) (n=198) (n=90) (n=78) (n=30) (n=41) (n=68) (n=25)
r 0.874 0.945 0.970 0.976 0.984 0.979 0.949 0.943
r2 0.764 0.892 0.941 0.953 0.968 0.959 0.901 0.889
adj r2 0.763 0.892 0.940 0.953 0.966 0.958 0.900 0.884
F 766.6 1622.1 1395.8 1549.8 836.8 921.7 601.1 184.8
p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
intercept −2.977 −3.343 −2.138 −5.278 −2.968 −0.841 −3.889 −1.996
p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
slope 0.668 0.733 0.624 0.917 0.614 0.345 0.742 0.582
p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
SEE 2.009 1.108 0.755 0.773 0.429 0.247 0.989 0.689
 Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences 9

Table 5. Models (including the coefficient and constant) for estimating the time since death
(TSD) in days for each data set (Southern States, State-specific and season).

Data sets Formulae

Total data set TSD = −2.977 + (0.668 x TBS) ± 2.009
Southern States TSD = −3.343 + (0.733 X TBS) ± 1.108
New South Wales TSD = −2.138 + (0.624 x TBS) ± 0.755
Victoria TSD = −5.278 + (0.917 X TBS) ± 0.773
Tasmania TSD = −2.968 + (0.614 X TBS) ± 0.429
Northern Territory TSD = −0.841 + (0.345 X TBS) ± 0.247
Summer TSD = −3.889 + (0.742 X TBS) ± 0.989
Winter TSD = −1.996 + (0.582 X TBS) ± 0.689
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Figure 1. Comparison of the linear relationships between TBS and TSD for all States and the
NT.

sample. The values are very close (adjusted r² = 0.763) indicating that the model can
be applied to the population as a whole from which the sample was derived. Models
for estimating TSD for each data set are listed in Table 5.
 10 J. Hayman and M. Oxenham
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Figure 2. Linear relationships between TSD and TBS; Northern Territory data (red line) and the
combined southern states (NSW., Victoria, Tasmania) data (green line).

Table 6. Comparison of the TBS between each State and the NT for a TSD of 2 to 7 days.

State/Territory Time since death (TSD) in Days

2 3 4 5 6 7
NT TBS 8.3 11.0 14.2 17.0 19.3 22.0
NSW TBS 6.5 8.7 10.4 11.8 12.6 14.3
Victoria TBS 7.6 9.2 10.5 11.1 12.0 13.8
Tasmania TBS 8.0 10.2 11.5 13.5 14.5 16.0

Using a known case from NSW with the following scores, external 3, brain 3, heart
2, liver 4, spleen 4, TBS 16 (with a known TSD of 8 days) and applying the generic
model [TSD = b0 + (b1 × TBS) ± SEE]:
 Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences 11

Table 7. Comparison of average TSD (in days) between the States and the NT for an EBS
between 1 and 5.

EBS Southern states NSW Victoria Tasmania NT Average

1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1 2 1.4
2 2.8 2.6 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.8
3 5.7 5.5 6.1 5.3 4.3 5.6
4 8.5 7.8 9.3 6.8 5.3 7.6
5 11.5 11.1 13.3 8.3 3.6 9.6

Table 8. Estimation of TSD (in days) in seven cases using the TBS and EBS with the Victoria
and Southern States models.
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Last contact1
Case EBS TBS (in days) TBS Models TSD EBS Models TSD
Victoria Southern states Victoria Southern states
1 4 17 10 10.3 9.1 9.3 8.5
2 3 13 7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7
3 3 8 2.5 2.1 2.5 6.1 5.7
4 1 8 2 2.1 2.5 1.3 1.3
5 3 12 5.5 5.7 5.5 6.1 5.7
6 3 13 1 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7
7 2 12 5 5.7 5.5 3.5 2.8
1
Used as best independent estimate of time since death.

TSD = −2.977 + (0.668 × 16)

= −2.977 + 10.68
= 7.71 ± 2.01 days
Applying the NSW specific model provides a TSD estimate of 7.85 ± 0.76 days, which
is a slight improvement on the generic model but, importantly, with a much smaller
SEE. In exploring the State and Territory models further, the observed linear relation-
ships between TBS and TSD by region were plotted (Figures 1 and 2). The slopes for
Tasmania and NSW are very similar, while that for Victoria is slightly steeper in com-
parison. On the other hand, the slope for the NT is rather low and indicates that for a
given TSD, a body will decompose relatively faster in the tropical Northern Territory
than in any of the more temperate southern States.
Further evidence of this is the comparison of the TBS with a TSD from two to
seven days, for each of the States and the NT (Table 6). The averaged values show a
higher TBS in the NT, compared with all the other states, for every day up to 7 days
after death.
In addition to exploring the relationship between TSD and TBS, we were also inter-
ested in knowing if the external body score (EBS), in and of itself, was a useful predic-
tor of TSD. If there was a close correlation between the two, it might be possible to
give an approximate TSD from the external body decomposition appearance, while
waiting for an autopsy to estimate the TBS. Table 7 shows the averaged TSD in each
state and the Northern Territory for an EBS from 1 to 5. Initial exploration (results not
shown here) showed a strong positive linear relationship between TBS and the EBS in
every data set.
 12 J. Hayman and M. Oxenham

Directly testing the models

Here we test the accuracy of these models using seven decomposed bodies all found
indoors and not used in developing the TSD estimation models. The use of the External
Body Score (EBS) in estimating TSD is also explored. Using last known contact with
the deceased as the best independent estimate of time since death, the Victoria and
southern states models provide TSD estimates using TBS data to within several hours
of death in all individuals except for case number 6 (see Table 8). The Victoria model
provides a better estimate of TSD than the more generic Southern States model.
Although the EBS gives an approximate TSD in most cases (Table 8), it is only
one component of the TBS and is therefore prone to error in some cases, as can be
seen in Table 8 (see especially cases 3, 5 and 6). Case No. 6 was unusual, although not
unique. The time of death was known exactly; this individual died in hospital 25 hours
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after being admitted with abdominal pain and a fever. Toxicology and autopsy later
revealed that this individual had died of fulminant septicaemia and therefore the TSD,
estimated by all models, was far greater than the known time of 1 day. The very rapid
decomposition was probably caused by the greater bacterial content of the body before
and after death, together with increased body temperature, accelerating the process of
decomposition. This case illustrates the observation that any peri-mortem disease
processes are important considerations when estimating the TSD in decomposed
bodies4,28.

Discussion
In summary, the models developed in this study to estimate time since death (TSD) are
based on the assessment of decomposition in four main body organs, in addition to an
external appearance score, in a sample of 239 human cases where actual TSD was
known with a reasonable degree of accuracy. These models can be used to estimate
TSD from 0 through to 14 days, after which the variability of body organ decomposi-
tion is too variable to accurately estimate TSD.
The assessment of the TBS is based on the progressive appearance of the external
body decomposition and the decomposition of the brain, heart, liver and spleen with a
numerical score being allotted to each stage up to a value of 6. Of necessity it requires
knowledge of the decomposition process and could easily be utilised by forensic
pathologists and other forensic specialists after familiarisation with the process, but it
requires assessment at autopsy. A slightly less accurate estimation can be made by
assessment of the external body appearance alone.
Temperature is arguably a significant variable affecting the rate of decomposition in
this study. An indication of its importance is shown by the data from the Northern Ter-
ritory, which has a greater average temperature than the southern states. These data
indicate that decomposition occurs at a faster rate in the Northern Territory in compar-
ison with the southern states over the same period of time. These models only estimate
the TSD up to 14 days after death. After this period, estimation becomes increasingly
difficult as the decomposition process affecting the external appearance and internal
body organs slows down significantly, and if drying and mummification progress the
process will be further delayed or even cease altogether. Quantification and modelling
of the TSD after 14 days therefore will remain a challenge. Although summer and win-
ter data sets were compiled based on the conventionally recognised months of these
seasonal periods in the southern states, it is doubtful if any particularly useful models
 Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences 13

can be derived from these data sets as the concepts of ‘summer’ and ‘winter’ vary
widely in Australian climatic circumstances and are more relevant to Northern
Hemisphere climates.
It needs to be stressed that these models are specific to the Australian States and
Territories sampled in this study. Region-specific models will need to be developed for
other parts of the globe and, naturally, further testing of such models using the method-
ology outlined here is required if they are to be confidently employed in case work.

Conclusions
Models have been developed that will increase the accuracy of estimation of the TSD
in human bodies found decomposed in the most common situation in which they are
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discovered in many states in Australia; indoors in houses or units. The models depend
on a quantitative scoring system of the progressive external appearance of the body
and of the brain, heart, liver and spleen as they decompose. It has not been possible to
independently incorporate the variable of temperature in the models, although to a cer-
tain extent this is included in the TBS as the chemical and microbial actions causing
decomposition are dependent on temperature. The challenge remains to develop models
that will incorporate temperature, will extend the estimation of TSD beyond 14 days
and that will estimate TSD in bodies found in outside as well as indoor environments.
Finally, this study illustrates the value of compiling meaningful statistics relating to
coronial cases on a national basis in order that forensic research may be carried out. In
many countries however, the political circumstances may prove insurmountable in the
establishment of such data.

Acknowledgements
The help and assistance of Associate Professor David Ranson, forensic pathologists and staff of
the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine and the National Coronial Information System are
gratefully acknowledged in the compilation of this research. Part of the research was carried out
with the aid of the generous granting of an Endeavour Research Fellowship from the Australian
Government.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

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