Presentation Write Up

Submitted By: Zubair Ahmad (Superintending Engineer PAK PWD, Lahore)

Topic: The Syrian Crisis

I wanted to give a presentation on the topics of Syrian Crisis because during the last decade one
of the most war torn regions is Syria. The problem which started with minor demonstrations
ended up in to a crisis and further led to a civil war. The presentation gives us a thorough idea
about the different aspects of the civil war. What caused the initiation of civil war? And the
consequences it has led to.
The presentation covers the following aspects:
1. Country’s geography
2. Historical Political Events
3. Geo Political Landscape
4. Religious Aspect of the issue
5. What led the demonstrations to a civil war?
6. ISIS and its agenda
7. Syrian Forces Committing War Crimes
8. Use of chemical weapons
9. A humanitarian crisis
10. Jihadist phenomenon
11. Who’s fighting who?
12. Agenda for Peace
13. Proxy Wars
A timeline of the important events which happened since the initiation of the demonstrations is
the basis for analysis of the entire Syrian Conflict.
The conflict of Syria has entered its eighth year, with President Bashar Assad's forces fighting to
drive rebels out from their last stronghold near the capital, Damascus, and Turkish forces closing
in on the northern Kurdish-held enclave of Afrin.
Assad remains firmly in power seven years after an Arab Spring-inspired uprising that began
with peaceful protests but that escalated into an armed rebellion following a brutal government
crackdown. Russia and Iran have provided massive aid to Assad's forces, allowing them to
advance on a number of fronts in recent years.
The Islamic State group was able to exploit the chaos to seize up to a third of the country at one
point, but its self-declared caliphate is now in ruins, with the militants largely confined to a
remote area along the Syrian-Iraqi border.
An al-Qaida-linked group dominates the northern Idlib province, while U.S.-backed Kurdish
forces hold around a quarter of the country in the northeast.
The fighting in Syria has killed an estimated 400,000 people since 2011 and driven half the
population from their homes, with more than 5 million becoming refugees, mainly in
neighboring countries. Several rounds of peace talks have done little to stem the bloodshed.
A timeline of key events in the Syria war:
In March 2011 protests erupt in the city of Daraa over security forces' detention of a group of
boys accused of painting anti-government graffiti on the walls of their school. On March 15, a
protest is held in Damascus' Old City. On March 18, security forces open fire on a protest in
Daraa, killing four people in what activists regard as the first deaths of the uprising.
Demonstrations spread, as does the crackdown.
In April 2011 security forces raid a sit-in in Syria's third-largest city, Homs, where thousands of
people tried to create the mood of Cairo's Tahrir Square, the epicenter of protests against
Egyptian autocrat Hosni Mubarak.
On Aug. 18, 2011, President Barack Obama calls on Assad to resign and orders Syrian
government assets frozen. On July 18, 2012: A bombing at the Syrian national security building
in Damascus during a high-level government crisis meeting kills four top officials, including
Assad's brother-in-law and the defense minister.
In July 2012 fighting spreads to Aleppo, Syria's largest city and its former commercial capital.
On Aug. 20, 2012 Obama says the use of chemical weapons would be a "red line" that would
change his calculus on intervening in the civil war. Then on March 19, 2013 the Syrian
government and opposition trade accusations over a gas attack that killed some 26 people,
including more than a dozen government soldiers, in the town of Khan al-Assal in northern
Syria. A U.N. investigation later finds that sarin nerve gas was used, but does not identify a
culprit. May 2013: Lebanon's Hezbollah group officially joins the Syrian conflict with
government forces by attacking and later capturing the border town of Qusair.
On August. 21, 2013 a chemical attack in the eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus kills
hundreds of people. The U.S. and others blame the attack on Syrian government forces. Obama
threatens punitive strikes but later backs down. On Sept. 27, 2013: The U.N. Security Council
orders Syria to account for and destroy its chemical weapons stockpile, following a surprise
agreement between Washington and Moscow, averting U.S. strikes. In Oct. 14, 2013 Syria
becomes a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, prohibiting it from producing,
stockpiling or using chemical weapons.
On June 23, 2014 the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons says it has removed
the last of the Syrian government's chemical weapons. Syrian opposition officials maintain that
the government's stocks were not fully accounted for, and that it retained supplies. On June 30,
2014 the Islamic State group declares caliphate in areas it controls in Iraq and Syria. On Sept. 23,
2014 the U.S. launches airstrikes on Islamic State targets in Syria. On March 28, 2015, the
northwestern city of Idlib falls to Islamist groups led by al-Qaida's affiliate, known as the Nusra
Front. On May 6, 2015 the Assad acknowledges serious setbacks for his military. On Sept. 30,
2015 Russia begins launching airstrikes in Syria in support of Assad's forces. In August 2016
Turkish forces cross into northern Syria, capturing areas along the border from the Islamic State
group. December 2016: Syrian insurgents evacuate rebel-held eastern neighborhoods of the
northern city of Aleppo after a Russia-backed government offensive. April 4, 2017 at least 58
people are killed in what doctors say could be a nerve gas attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun
in the rebel-held Idlib province. Witnesses say the attack was carried out by either Russian or
Syrian Sukhoi jets. Moscow and Damascus deny responsibility.
In April, 2017 the U.S. fires a barrage of cruise missiles into Syria in retaliation for the Khan
Sheikhoun attack, in the first direct American assault on the Syrian government. In May 2017
rebels withdraw from the last neighborhood they controlled in the city of Homs, once dubbed the
capital of the revolution. On Jan 20, 2018 Turkey begins a major military operation against
Kurdish fighters in Syria's northern enclave of Afrin. In February 2018 Syrian government forces
launch a massive operation to drive rebels from eastern Ghouta. Most of the territory is freed by
the government forces.

Fight with Islamic State was top priority for Syria’s multiple parties in 2017. The government,
with support of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, retook large parts of Central and Eastern Syria from
ISIS while US-backed Syria Democratic Forces controlled Raqqa. The race to secure territory
and consolidate gains was accompanied by grave violations of human rights and humanitarian
law that have come to characterize the Syria conflict.

More than 400,000 have died because of the Syrian conflict since 2011, according to the World
Bank, with 5 million seeking refuge abroad and over 6 million displaced internally, according to
UN agencies. By June 2017, the UN also estimated that 540,000 people were still living in
besieged areas.

The Syrian government has launched numerous chemical weapons attacks on civilians in
opposition-held areas. With Russia and Iran’s support, the Syrian government has conducted
deliberate and indiscriminate attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, withheld
humanitarian aid, employed starvation as war tactic, and forcibly displaced Syrians in
contravention of international law. The Syrian government’s practices of torture and ill-treatment
in detention and enforced disappearances continue.

Non-state armed groups have also committed a host of violations. The groups have launched
deliberate and indiscriminate attacks against civilians, abducted, and arbitrarily detained
activists, used excessive force to stifle protests and interfered with humanitarian aid delivery.
ISIS has reportedly used civilians as human shields, and employed landmines and other IEDs
causing significant harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Civilian casualties from airstrikes by the US-led coalition fighting ISIS increased with a local
group, the Syrian Network for Human Rights, reporting 2,286 civilian deaths since the beginning
of the campaign until September 2017. A number of these strikes raise concerns that the coalition
failed to take necessary precautions to avoid and minimize civilian casualties.
While accountability efforts remained blocked at the Security Council, the UN General
Assembly established in December 2016 a mechanism to assist in the investigation of
serious crimes, preserve evidence and prepare cases for future criminal proceedings.

Syrian government and Russian forces have escalated their airstrikes on Eastern Ghouta, a
suburb approximately 15 kilometers from the center of Syria’s capital Damascus, killing dozens
of civilians in apparently unlawful attacks.

This involved targeting civilians, indiscriminate attacks, continued use of cluster munitions and
incendiary weapons. Unlawful attacks against civilians and civilian structures in Syria have
persisted, with attacks on medical facilities, schools, and mosques. The Syrian government
regained control over opposition-held parts of Aleppo at the end of 2016. In their operation, the
Russian-Syrian military coalition conducted indiscriminate air attacks, including strikes on
several medical facilities, and used incendiary weapons and cluster munitions. The Violations
Documentation Center (VDC), a local monitoring group, documented the killing of 446 civilians,
including 91 children, in aerial attacks in eastern Aleppo between September 19 and October 18.

While the number of civilian deaths in Southern Syria decreased following local ceasefire
agreements, unlawful attacks persisted. In June, for example, Russian-Syrian airstrikes and
artillery attacks targeted the town of Tafas, south of Daraa, killing 10 civilians in and near a
school.

In September, the Russian-Syrian Joint Military Operation launched an offensive on Idlib

province. Airstrikes targeted several towns and surrounding areas in the province, destroying at
least six hospitals and five civil defense centers, resulting in the death of over 150 civilians,
according to the Syrian Civil Defense.

Cluster munition attacks by Syrian government forces on opposition-held areas continued

unabated. At least 238 separate attacks using cluster munitions in Syria between August 2016
and July 2017 were reported by local activists, first responders, and medical personnel.

Human Rights Watch recorded at least 22 air attacks with incendiary weapons in 2017. In April
2017, Human Rights Watch documented the use of ZAB incendiary submunitions, containing
thermite, and delivered by RBK-500 bombs used to attack the city of Saraqeb, northwest of
Saraqeb.

Unlawful Restrictions on Humanitarian Aid, Sieges, and Forced Displacements were a common
practice. The siege of civilian areas and restrictions on humanitarian aid by government and pro-
government forces and by armed opposition groups continued in 2017. UN OCHA estimate that
around 540,000 persons were trapped in besieged areas as of June 2017 with the majority
besieged by government forces in Eastern Ghouta. Humanitarian conditions in besieged
opposition enclaves rapidly deteriorated in 2017, forcing communities in several besieged areas
to surrender to the terms of brokered ceasefire and evacuation deals with the government.
Several local “reconciliation” agreements were finalized in 2017, including the “Four Towns
Agreement” signed in March, resulted in the evacuation of the government-besieged towns of
Madaya and Zabadani in exchange for evacuating the towns of Fouah and Kefraya, encircled by
armed opposition groups. The UN Commission of Inquiry and Amnesty International have found
that some of these evacuations are unlawful and constitute forced displacement. There was
unlawful use of chemical weapons and nerve agents. The Syrian government’s forces continued
to use chemical weapons repeatedly, with nerve agents being deployed on at least four occasions
since late 2016—in eastern Hama on December 11 and 12, 2016, northern Hama, on March 30,
and Khan Sheikhoun on April 4.

New evidence supports the conclusion that Syrian government forces have used nerve agents on
at least four occasions in recent months: on April 4, 2017, in a chemical attack on Khan
Sheikhoun that killed at least 90 people, and on three other occasions in December 2016 and
March 2017.

Clinical symptoms affecting victims of the chemical weapons attack in Khan Sheikhoun
suggested that an organophosphorus compound, which targets the nervous system, was used. The
attack killed at least 92, including 30 children, and injured hundreds more.

In September, the UN-appointed commission of inquiry’s report concluded that “the Syrian air
force used sarin in Khan Sheikhoun, Idlib, killing dozens, the majority of whom were women
and children.” The commission says it has evidence the attack was conducted by a Sukhoi SU-22
aircraft, a type that only Syrian government forces use. In October, the Joint Investigative
Mechanism (JIM) of the UN and Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
(OPCW) found that the Syrian government was responsible for the chemical weapons attack in
Khan Sheikhoun. Russia vetoed the renewal of the JIM whose mandate ended in November.

Human Rights Watch also documented government helicopters dropping chlorine on at least
eight occasions in the offensive to recapture Aleppo, indicating widespread and systematic use of
chemical weapons.

There were US-Led Coalition Airstrikes. In March, a U.S. warplane struck a mosque in al-Jinah
village in Aleppo killing at least 38 people. The US said it struck a meeting of al-Qaeda members
but local residents said that the victims were all civilians attending evening prayers. Statements
by US military after the attack indicate they failed to understand the targeted building was a
mosque, that prayer was about to begin, and that a religious lecture was taking place at the time
of the attack. The United States did conduct an investigation into the airstrike, and found it legal,
though it failed to clarify the factors that led to that determination or consult external actors. The
UN Commission of Inquiry found the strike was unlawful as US forces failed to take all feasible
precautions to minimize loss of civilian life.

Two aerial attacks near Raqqa, Syria in March killed at least 84 civilians, including 30 children,
and raise concerns that US-led coalition forces fighting the extremist armed group Islamic State
(also known as ISIS) did not take adequate precautions to minimize civilian casualties.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group,
around 1,100 civilians died in airstrikes launched by coalition planes since the campaign to
retake the city of Raqqa began. Human Rights Watch investigated several airstrikes in towns
near Raqqa, including one on a school housing displaced persons in Mansourah on March 20 and
a market and a bakery in Tabqa on March 22 that killed at least 84 civilians, including 30
children. According to local residents, the Mansourah School had long hosted displaced civilians
fleeing other parts of Syria, and civilians had used the Tabqa market throughout the war.

These strikes raise concerns that US-led coalition forces did not take adequate precautions to
minimize civilian casualties.

There were enforced disappearances, death in custody, arbitrary arrests, and torture.

Abuses by ISIS against civilians continue unabated despite the group losing control of wide
areas. ISIS used civilians as human shields in its defense of Raqqa and other towns, and
employed internationally banned landmines to hold off the advance of attacking forces.

In May, ISIS militants attacked the town of Aqarib al-Safiyah, predominantly populated by
Ismailis, a minority Shia Muslim community. While attempting to flee, residents were killed in
the streets by snipers positioned at the village’s water reservoir and on the roofs of houses. In
total, 52 civilians were killed, including 12 children according to the UN Commission of Inquiry.
Another 100 were injured, including two girls who suffered serious head wounds.

The UN-OPCW’s joint investigation into the use of chemical weapons in Syria has previously
confirmed that ISIS has used chemical weapons, specifically sulfur mustard gas, against
civilians.

Fighting among different non-state armed groups increased risk to civilians. The UN
Commission of Inquiry has documented the death of an 11 year old child in Daraa City, as well
as destruction of civilian infrastructure, as a result of indiscriminate shelling by armed groups.
The commission estimated that practices of torture and arbitrary detention continued in areas
under the control of armed groups, including Eastern Ghouta. The security forces in PYD-
controlled areas conducted a series of raids to close opposing political parties’ offices, and
detained and harassed members of the political opposition and activists. Most were detained
without any charges brought against them. The majority of prisoners were released after a few
months. Human Rights Watch has received reports of torture and ill-treatment in detention
facilities controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – a coalition of forces fighting ISIS
primarily made up of the YPG. SDF held individuals without charge in violation of fair trial
guarantees, according to local residents. Local activists report the SDF restricted the freedom of
movement of displaced persons from Raqqa and Deir-Ezzor province who end up in
displacement camps in SDF-controlled areas and deteriorating humanitarian conditions for the
displaced.

Neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, sought to curb the massive
inflow of refugees with unlawful administrative, legal, and even physical barriers. Incidents of
Turkish border guards shooting at Syrians and smugglers attempting to cross the border continue
to be reported, including the fatal shooting of a three-year-old child in September. Lebanon
maintained visa-like restrictions for Syrians seeking entry and stringent residency renewal
regulations, negatively impacting refugees’ freedom of movement, access to education, and
access to healthcare. Deteriorating conditions for Syrians in the Lebanese border town of Arsal
led to almost 10,000 Syrians returning to Idlib largely under agreements negotiated between
Hezbollah and different Syrian groups as well as ISIS.

In the first five months of 2017, Jordanian authorities deported about 400 registered Syrian
refugees per month to unsafe conditions in Syria. Another estimated 500 refugees each month
returned to Syria from Jordan under circumstances that are unclear. Authorities produced little
evidence of wrongdoing by these refugees and did not give any real opportunity for the refugees
to contest their removal or to seek legal help prior to their deportation.

There were many international actors involved. Peace talks held by the United Nations in
Geneva have failed to achieve momentum. In January 2017, Russia, Iran and Turkey met in
Astana, Kazakhstan along with representatives of the parties to the conflict to pursue a de-
escalation of the conflict. While consecutive Astana meetings have resulted in a decrease in
violence following a May agreement on four de-escalation zones, they have failed to realize a
stop to the violence completely. The Syrian government, Russia and other actors repeatedly
violated these ceasefires. In October, Turkey deployed troops inside Idlib province. The Syrian
government continued to violate Security Council resolutions demanding safe and unhindered
humanitarian access; cessation of “indiscriminate employment of weapons in populated areas,
including shelling and aerial bombardment, such as the use of barrel bombs;” and an end to the
practices of arbitrary detention, disappearance, and abductions, and the release of everyone who
has been arbitrarily detained.

In addition to persistently discouraging or pre-emptively rejecting suggestions for meaningful

Security Council action to curb violations by the Syrian government, Russia, along with the
Iranian government, continued to provide the Syrian government with military assistance in
2017.

The United States also continued to lead a coalition of other states targeting ISIS in Iraq and
Syria, as well as to support the Syrian Democratic Forces in the same offensive. In April, the
United States also launched an attack on a Syrian airfield in response to the Syrian government’s
use of chemical weapons. In July, the United States, Jordan and Russia agreed to a ceasefire zone
in southern Syria.

In December 2016, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution creating the “International,
Impartial and Independent Mechanism” to gather, preserve, and analyze potential evidence of
serious crimes in Syria for use in courts that may have a mandate over the abuses now or in the
future.

Efforts to bring those responsible for atrocities in Syria before European courts are starting to
bear fruit, notably in Swedish and German courts. While various authorities in Europe have
opened investigations of serious international crimes committed in Syria, Sweden and Germany
are the first two countries that have prosecuted and convicted people for these crimes.

In April, foreign ministers of EU member states adopted the EU strategy for Syria, which
includes political and humanitarian actions and provides for efforts to promote accountability for
war crimes and serious human rights violations. In May, the European Parliament welcomed the
adoption of the strategy and stressed the need for accountability, both at the international and
domestic levels.

April this year, the EU hosted “Brussels Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the
Region,” and €5.6 billion were pledged for 2017 and €3.5 billion for 2018-2020. In June, the
European Commission announced €1.5 million to support the IIIM. In September, the EU
announced the intention to host a second donor’s conference in Brussels in spring 2018.

The international community needs to work in coherence to resolve the Syrian conflict,
irrespective of geo political interests. These interests need to be put aside for the humanity’s
sake. There is only a political solution to this problem in which all parties should adopt an open
approach to avoid conflict and resolve the methods peacefully.