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CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 1
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 2
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 3
2.1 Terms used in Probabilistic Problems
In a probabilistic (not deterministic) situation, an event that occurs is
merely one of a number of possible events that could have occurred
under the given condition.
e.g. In rolling a die, 6 values: 1, 2, ...,6, are possible
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 4
result of trail
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 5
Examples
EX. 2.1 In flipping a coin, the possible outcomes are H (head) and T
(tail).
S = { H, T } H, T: sample point
6 possible outcomes: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Sample space S = { 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 }
Each possibility: a sample point
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 6
Sample Space
Discrete Continuous
distinct or countable a continuum of sample pts. or
sample pts measured values
Finite Infinite
Examples 2.1-2.3 e.g. a set of even integers Infinite
e.g. set of 1st 10 integers e.g. no of cars waiting for right e.g. If cube strength between15-25
{1, 2, 3, ...., 10} turns, {0,1,2,3,....,} any value in [15 25] a sample pt
Entire continuum in [15 25] = S
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 7
In rolling a die, S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 } ,
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 8
EX. 2.4
Draw 2 bolts from a set of 5 bolts (numbered from 1 to 5). The
sample space comprises 10 possible outcomes
S = {1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 2,3 2,4 2,5 3,4 3,5 4,5}
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 9
Let A: No defective bolt
B: 1 defective bolt
C: 2 defective bolts
A = { 4,5 }
B = {1,4; 1,5; 2,4; 2,5; 3,4; 3,5}
C = {1,2; 1,3; 2,3}
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 10
2.3 Special Events and Combination of Events
Occurrence of an Event
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 11
Special Events
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 12
(2) Impossible event ( ):
containing no sample point,
e.g. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E ={x: 1 < x < 2}
=
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 13
(3) Complementary event (denoted by E ):
The complement of an event E in a sample space S contains all
the sample points in S that are not in E
(4) Subevent:
If all the sample points in B also belong to A,
then B is a subevent of A,
denoted as: B A or A B
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 14
Combination of Events
Express one event A in terms of other events using the operation of
sets.
A E1 E1 Union
B E1 E1 Intersection
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1) Union of Events E1 , E 2 ( E1 E2 )
A subset of S containing all the sample pts. belonging to E1 or E 2
(or both).
e.g. ,
A E1 E2 {1,3,4,5,6} 1 3 5
E3 {1,2,3} , E4 {2,3,4} S 2 4 6
C E3 E4 {1,2,3,4}
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E {3,4,5,6}
2) Intersection of Events E1 , E2 ( E1 E2 or E1 E 2)
e.g. B E E E E {3, 5}
1 2 1 2 1 3 5
D E3 E4 E3E4 {2, 3} S 2 4 6
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Generally, the above discussion may be extended to cover any
number of events.
m
E1 E2 ...... Em or Ej
j 1
the event covering the occurrence of at least one of the m events.
m
E1 E2 ....... Em or E j
j 1
the event of joint occurrence of all the m events simultaneously.
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 18
Three Basic Event Operations
Both E1 and E 2 E1 E2
Not E E
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Example
3 Events: E1 1,2,3, E2 3,4,5, E3 1,3,5
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 20
(B) Intersection
B E1 E2 E3 E1 E2 E3 3
If outcome is 3, all E1, E2 & E3 occur simultaneously.
B represents joint occurrence of E1, E2 & E3 simultaneously
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3) Mutually Exclusive (or disjoint) Events:
E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive if
E1 E2
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4) Collectively Exhaustive Events:
Two or more events are collectively exhaustive if
their union gives the underlying sample space
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Two or more events are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of
one precludes the occurrence of all others.
E1 E2 E3 φ .
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An event E and its complement E are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive.
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4. Representation by Venn Diagram:
In other words, the event E contains all the sample points within
the closed region, whereas E contains all the sample points
outside of E.
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Example 2.5
Referring to Ex. 2.3, suppose we define the following events:
A: occurrence of at least 3 break-downs;
B: occurrence of not more than 4 break-downs;
C: occurrence of less than 3 break-downs;
D: occurrence of less than 2 break-downs.
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Then
A B Occurrence of at least 3 but not more than 4 break-downs
A B S C A AC S
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 29
Example 2.6
Consider example 2.4
A B C S A B C
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General relationships
Complementary sets
A A S, A A ,
S , A A.
Commutative rule
A B B A , AB BA.
Associative rule
AB C A BC , A B C A B C .
Distributive rule always let the one outside pair up first
A B C AC BC, AB C A C B C .
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CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 32
De Morgan’s rule: (Proof: see Ang & Tang, P35)
Relates sets (or events) and their complements.
Apply to A & B
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Stated in general
E1 E2 ...... En E1 E2 ...... En
E 1 E 2 ...... E n E 1 E 2 ...... E n
Duality relation:
The complement of unions (intersections) is equal to the intersections
(unions) of the respective complements.
e.g.
A BC A BC A B C AB AC
A B C A B C AB C
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 34
Example
Water supple to a city C comes from 2 sources, A & B, by
pipeline, 1, 2, 3.
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 35
Assume either source alone is sufficient to supply water
for C.
No shortage means
(E1 E2 ) E3
Note:
E3 : no failure in pipe 3
(E1 E2 ): at least one of the pipes working
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 36
De Morgan’s rule
Example
S 1,2,3,4,5,6 , A 1,2,3 , B 2,4,6 .
A B 1,2,3,4,6
A B 5
A 4,5,6 B 1,3,5
A B 5
A B A B 5
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 37
Summary
Consider events E1& E2
Union E1 E2
Intersection E1 E2 or E1E2
Mutually Exclusive Events E1 E2
Collectively Exhaustive Events E1 E2 S
Venn Diagram
De Morgan’s rule
E1 E2 E1 E2 E1 E2
E1 E2 E1E2 E1 E2
CV2001/MT2301 Chapter 2 38