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19•June•2018 Week 24
Colombian continuity
The oil industry is positive about Ivan Duque becoming Colombia’s new
president, though there are some concerns about his security policies.
Aranguren sacked
Argentine Energy Minister Juan Jose Aranguren was unexpectedly sacked
last week and has been replaced by Javier Iguacel.
Guyana drilling kicks off
Liza-1 development drilling began in May with 17 wells programmed, as
Guyana targets output of 500,000 bpd by the end of the next decade.
Unease in Mexico
Recent comments by the likely next president Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador and his advisers have put the oil industry on edge.
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LatAmOil
Latin America Oil & Gas Monitor
COMMENTARY
Relief for Colombian oil industry as Duque wins presidency 4
Exxon launches Guyana drilling 6
i n v e s tment
Gazprom and YPFB deepen ties during Morales’ Moscow visit 8
GeoPark eyes approval for two Block 64 wells by end of the year 9
P o l i cy
Aranguren sacked as Argentina’s energy minister 10
New law loosens governance of Brazil’s pre-salt oil sales 11
Investor unease ahead of Mexican election 12
News in brief 16
o u r c u s tomer s 22
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Colombia has an
estimated 6.8 billion
barrels of shale oil and
55 tcf (1.6 tcm) of
shale gas.
fracturing to replace reserves, music to the ears Duque and his supporters have slammed
of producers keen to start drilling for Colombia’s the agreement for being too lenient on former
estimated 6.8 billion barrels of shale oil and 55 tcf FARC rebels, while proponents of the deal argue
(1.6 tcm) of shale gas. that any tampering could end up reigniting
“The priority for Duque has to be increasing hostilities.
the country’s reserves,” said Silva. According to the IMF, regional development
The president-elect will consider himself projects linked to the peace process was one fac-
fortunate that his ascendency comes at a time of tor helping to lure capital back to the sector.
recovery in the sector rather than a downturn. A tough approach to the FARC issue may
Rising oil prices are already leading to higher threaten stop-start peace talks with the National
spending: according to Colombia’s Banco de la Liberation Army (ELN), Colombia’s largest rebel
Republica, foreign direct investment (FDI) in group.
oil and gas last year totalled US$3.46 billion, an The 2,000-strong ELN, which is accused of
increase of 44.9% compared with 2016. muscling into territories that the demobilised
Private producers are expected to invest FARC gave up as part of the peace process, has
US$4.5-4.9 billion this year, up by 45% com- routinely attacked pipelines and other oil instal-
pared with 2017, while Ecopetrol’s expenditure lations in a bid to strong-arm the government to
could reach US$4 billion, up by 55%. the negotiating table. Duque will also
Production is also on the up, exceeding gov- Duque will also have to address sooner rather
ernment targets to reach 854,190 bpd in the first than later the thorny issue of popular referenda, have to address
five months of the year, according to the Energy
Ministry.
a mechanism whereby communities vote to
approve or block local hydrocarbon and mining
sooner rather
Natural gas output in May topped 1 bcf (28.3 projects. His campaign stressed the need for a than later the
mcm) per day for the first time since April 2016. more stringent legal framework, without pro-
viding specific details. thorny issue
Key questions The Colombian Petroleum Association
Still, questions remain over some of Duque’s (ACP) has warned that popular referenda jeop- of popular
proposals.
In particular, the president-elect’s get-tough
ardise up to one fifth of domestic oil production.
Gustavo Arnavat, who served with Duque on
referenda.
approach towards security issues, popular the executive board at the Washington DC-based
among Colombians during the election cam- Inter-American Development Bank (IDB),
paign, may backfire. believes the new president will be equipped to
In a victory speech at his campaign headquar- meet the challenge.
ters in Bogota, Duque reiterated plans to amend “He consistently brought a universal per-
a peace deal signed 18 months ago between the spective to our interactions while advocating
government of outgoing president Juan Manuel on behalf of Colombia,” Arnavat told NBI. “He
Santos and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of was always operating on a higher level than
Colombia (FARC) to formally end over five dec- most other representatives of their respective
ades of conflict. countries.”v
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drilling began in May with emergence as an oil producer, the process for 55% 52%
50%
17 wells programmed. how it awards acreage has come under closer 45%
scrutiny. 40%
MR-Chinguetti Ghana Guinea Guyana LB-Block13 PNG SN-Cayar SN-StLouis
W h y: ExxonMobil announced on June 12 that Stabroek
Reserves exceeding 3 development drilling began in May on the first 450m barrel field size, EIA Reference price
billion boe have been of 17 wells that are programmed for Liza-1, with
found off the coast of a view to production start-up in 2020. But there has been criticism of Exxon’s acqui- Source: OpenOil
Guyana. Liza-1 production will be facilitated by a sition of its offshore acreage, which was awarded
floating, production, storage and offloading behind closed doors with little transparency.
W h at n e x t: (FPSO) vessel along with four undersea drill The contract for the Stabroek block was rene-
A new Department of centres with capacity to yield 120,000 bpd of oil. gotiated in 2016, with the overall take for Guyana
Energy has been formed The consortium, which comprises ExxonMo- coming in at around 52%. The norm for similar
to make future block bil (45%), Hess (30%) and CNOOC subsidiary frontier countries is 60-80%, meaning Guyana
awards more transparent. Nexen (25%), also reportedly aims to drill up is forfeiting significant value to the US-based
to 40 new wells to bring Liza Phase 2 on line by super-major and its co-venturers compared to
mid-2022. The production capacity of the FPSO similar frontier countries. (See graph above)
vessel for Liza-2 is projected to be 220,000 bpd. Jan Mangal, who was petroleum adviser to Development
In addition to the two Liza phases, the group Guyana’s President David Granger until March,
is also working on developing the Payara dis- is adamant that a transparent bid round process drilling began in
covery in the Stabroek block, which could add
an additional 110,000 bpd of output by 2023 or
should be adopted by the country to bring it in
line with other countries in the region, such as
May on the first
2024. Brazil and Mexico. Such a system would also of 17 wells that
The consortium has made seven major dis- secure a better deal for the country in terms of
coveries in the block to date, the latest being the the royalties it receives, whilst reducing scope are programmed
Pacora-1 and Ranger wells, which have esti- for corruption. “Now that Guyana is on the radar
mated recoverable reserves in excess of 3.2 bil- post Liza, it is my personal view that all future for Liza-1,
lion boe.
Overall output from the three projects could
acreage should be leased in a way which max-
imises benefit to Guyana, hence in a market-ori-
with a view to
reach up to 500,000 bpd over the next decade. entated way by an open bid round to ensure production start-
competition,” Mangal told NewsBase Intelligence
Forfeiting value (NBI). “Acreage should not be negotiated one- up in 2020.
ExxonMobil has placed a huge amount of on-one between the government and a prospec-
importance on its Guyana work, which it views tive developer. “These negotiations are prone to
as one of several strategic projects that will drive corruption and Guyana is a highly corrupt place.
its future performance. Chevron, Petrobras and others would love for
The rapid pace of development being spear- Guyana to enter into one-on-one talks because
headed by the company will bring welcome rev- they know they can out-wit Guyana at the nego-
enue to the impoverished country’s coffers. tiating table, the same way Exxon did in 2016.”
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Bolivian President
Evo Morales (left) and
Gazprom chairman
Alexey Miller meet in
Moscow last week.
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Aranguren sacked as
Argentina’s energy minister
argentina Argentine Energy Minister Juan Jose Ignorance is bliss
Aranguren was unexpectedly sacked last week Last week Aranguren was in San Carlos de Bari-
and has been replaced by Javier Iguacel, a young loche, a mountain resort in Patagonia, speaking
oil engineer and rising political star. at an energy conference and then presiding over
The removal of Aranguren took many in a two-day meeting of world energy leaders. He
the industry by surprise. He had taken on the appeared unaware of the political manoeuvring
energy portfolio in the government after more that was under way back in Buenos Aires.
than a decade of running Royal Dutch Shell in It is a baptism of fire for Iguacel, whose first
Argentina, during which time he made his mark job will be to ease the tension that has flared up
defending the downstream industry’s interests between producers and refiners. So does he have
against encroaching state control by the populist what it takes?
Kirchner administrations that ruled from 2003 At 43, and 20 years younger than Aranguren,
Former oil engineer and to 2015. he certainly has less experience. He started his
YPF employee Javier Aranguren stood his ground, though, and career at state-run YPF at the end of the 1990s
Iguacel is Argentina’s was admonished by former president Nestor before moving on to work at other domestic oil
new energy minister. Kirchner who called for a national boycott of companies Pecom Energia and Pluspetrol.
Shell Argentina’s diesel and gasoline products In 2015, Iguacel got into politics, running for
after the company raised prices at the pump. the mayor of Capitan Sarmiento, a town to the
Ironically, it was Aranguren’s revival of price northwest of the capital, with a population of
controls that led in part to his demise on June 16, 13,000. He narrowly lost, but had enough acu-
which was announced by the government in a men to get noticed by Macri’s team, where he was
terse three-sentence statement. appointed as director of the National Highway
With the peso rapidly depreciating against Administration, working under Transport Min-
the US dollar and international crude prices ister Guillermo Dietrich.
nearing US$80 per barrel, Aranguren called on His work gained him praise. Elisa Carrio, a
oil refiners to freeze their prices in May and June, legislator and three-time presidential hopeful
on the promise that they would recoup their with close ties to Macri, called him “the best offi-
losses later in the year. cial” in the administration, adding in posts on
The freeze was designed to contain inflation, social media that his appointment as well as that Iguacel’s first
which instead of slowing this year as had been of Dante Sica as Production Minister were nec-
forecast, is picking up. Economists anticipate essary and would inject some “hope” back into job is to ease the
that inflation will end this year at 28%, up from
25% in May, which would damage President
the economy.
Others warned, however, that Aranguren’s
tension that has
Mauricio Macri’s approval rating as the country removal could derail the government’s efforts to flared up between
heads toward a presidential election in October rein in the fiscal deficit, the root of the country’s
2019. economic problems over the past century. producers and
Ramiro Castineira, an economist at Econo-
Tensions build metrica, an economic consultancy in Buenos refiners.
As oil prices remained high and the peso Aires, said Aranguren had helped to reduce pub-
plunged – it is down 35% since the start of the lic spending by US$12 billion per year by raising
year – a tussle broke out between oil producers natural gas and power tariffs. Others applauded
and refiners last week. him for reinjecting confidence into the energy
While both sides had agreed to sell at sector. That was not enough for Macri to save
below-market prices, refiners struggled to make him, though, with the president also appointing
a profit as the weakening peso reduced the reve- a new economic adviser and central bank presi-
nue needed to pay for oil in dollars. dent in a broad reshuffle of his top team.
Trafigura, a new entrant in the downstream As well as ironing out the disagreements
sector, decided to slow production from its between Argentina’s oil producers and refiners,
30,000 bpd refinery in Bahia Blanca, Buenos Iguacel must also act as the front man for the
Aires province after producers refused to reduce government’s push to attract new investment
crude prices. into the Vaca Muerta shale, despite the difficult
At the same time, oil producers started prevailing economic winds. It is a tough in-tray
requesting the right to export their light crude, for the new minister, with the political pressure
which would enable them to fetch higher prices likely to grow as next year’s presidential election
than in the domestic market. looms large on the horizon.v
Corporate Diplomacy
Access. Engagement. Resolution.
P OLI C Y infrastructure and petrochemical companies the reversal of recent auctions granting
to process the hydrocarbons once they have offshore exploration and production rights to
Rick Perry wants to help been moved out of the isolated shale fields.
Boosting output in Vaca Muerta, one of
global oil majors, who would be compensated
for cancelled contracts.
Argentina be more like the world’s largest shale plays that remains
largely untapped, will help the US to direct
Gomes has said President Michel
Temer, who took office in 2016 after the
Texas geopolitics amid fractious relationships with
major oil producers Russia and Venezuela,
impeachment of leftist President Dilma
Rousseff, lacked the legitimacy to rewrite the
The US government is getting in on a shale Perry said. “Being able to not be held hostage rules of those auctions, which drew billions
boom 8,000 km from home. Energy Secretary by countries who don’t share our values is of dollars from ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and
Rick Perry will help Argentina connect with really important,” Perry said. “President others.
US companies that have shale oil and gas Macri’s policies are right in line with US REUTERS, June 14, 2018
expertise as Argentine President Mauricio values.”
Macri – facing a natural gas trade deficit –
hurries to replicate the success of the Permian
BLOOMBERG, June 17, 2018
WTO joins IMF in urging
basin, in Perry’s home state of Texas.
Fostering energy production from a Leftist presidential hopeful Colombia to diversify
regional ally will bolster the geopolitical
influence of the US, Perry told reporters in would end Brazil oil refining economy
Bariloche, Argentina. “One of the things
that I offered Juan Jose is US technology monopoly The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has
called on Colombia to diversify its economy
partnerships, to make the introductions with The leading leftist candidate in Brazil’s and reduce its dependency on the exports of
the private sector,” Perry said, referring to presidential race, Ciro Gomes, would end fossil fuels.
Juan Jose Aranguren, Macri’s former energy the refining monopoly of state oil company The advice followed months after the
minister. “The technology that has allowed for Petroleo Brasileiro SA, said a senior Gomes International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged
the shale gas revolution in America we want adviser. The plan laid out by Nelson Marconi, the South American country to diversify its
to make available to Argentina.” policy director for the Gomes campaign, economy and stimulate its manufacturing and
Perry was meeting Aranguren, who breaks with longstanding Brazilian industrial service sectors.
was sacked on June 16, and other G20 policy and could face blowback from powerful According to the WTO, Colombia
counterparts in snow-covered Bariloche to unions at Petrobras. has failed to use oil revenues to diversify
discuss a global transition to cleaner energy His comments underscore how a May its economy when oil prices were high.
– especially gas. Argentina is ramping up trucker strike over fuel prices, which As a consequence, the country has had
production of the fuel in Vaca Muerta, the paralyzed much of Brazil’s economy and trouble closing its budget since 2014 when
Patagonian shale play where Chevron and forced the government to slash diesel taxes, commodity prices suddenly collapsed.
DowDuPont were among the first to get has sparked bold proposals for Petrobras An ongoing dependency on oil and
drilling going. ahead of the October election. mining would continue to make the country
Argentina’s state-run YPF SA, the A law making Petrobras Brazil’s sole vulnerable and would not reduce poverty
biggest operator in Vaca Muerta, sees the petroleum refiner was struck down in 1997 rates, according to the WTO.
next phase of shale development driven after more than four decades. But its de facto Although the outlook for economic growth
by mid-cap independent companies lured monopoly went unchallenged until April, and inflation is positive, some structural
from the Permian. Their arrival will increase when Petrobras laid out plans to sell stakes problems pose major challenges, including
competition and, in turn, slash costs, in some refineries, drawing an outcry from the need to continue to promote economic
Aranguren told reporters in Bariloche. Now, unions and many politicians on the left. diversification and reduce poverty levels.
Perry wants to add to that, bringing in US Marconi said Gomes, a fiery centre-left The IMF agrees. Colombia’s “medium-
pipeline developers to expand the play’s former governor of Ceara state, still demands term agenda should revolve around structural
reforms to boost inclusive growth and
productivity,” it said earlier this year.
The WTO advised Colombia to focus on
the stimulation of manufacturing jobs and the
service sector.
COLOMBIA REPORTS, June 14, 2018
C OM P ANIE S
Meeting of Energy Ministers. The gas could will commence in the near future, Enbridge Sistrangas near the Cactus processing plant in
come both from the Neuquen basin, home to spokesman Devin Hotzel said in an email. Tabasco State.
Vaca Muerta, and from the Austral basin in The Valley Crossing project is designed to The Centro Nacional de Control Del Gas
southern Argentina, she added. carry up to 2.6 bcf per day of gas from Texas Natural (Cenagas), the state-run operator
The two South American countries had to help Mexico meet its growing power needs of Sistrangas, is holding a tender for the
previously signed deals allowing for the export as generators there shift away from fuel oil Cempoala project, expected to cost US$36
of gas or electricity in emergency situations and imported LNG. million. France’s Engie plans to invest about
but required that an equivalent amount be The Valley Crossing project has been under US$49 million in the interconnection project
re-imported within twelve months. construction since April 2017, according to for Mayakan, which it owns through a
The gas could be used for electricity the Enbridge website. Mexican subsidiary.
generation, replacing imports from elsewhere, Valley Crossing will connect in the Gulf of Both projects are part of a three-pronged
or to heat homes in areas where families still Mexico to the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline approach that Mexican energy officials have
depend on wood, a source of pollution in under construction by a joint venture between previously discussed as a way to ease gas
the centre-south region, Jimenez said. Chile units of TransCanada and Sempra Energy. shortages on the Yucatan Peninsula. US gas
produces few hydrocarbons of its own. Once complete, it will be the biggest gas pipe imports currently do not reach southeast
Since taking office in December 2015, between the two countries. Mexico, while associated gas production at the
President Mauricio Macri has sought to There are already approximately 20 southern offshore oilfields operated by Pemex
loosen labour rules and boost infrastructure pipelines that can move gas from the US to has dropped sharply in recent years.
to attract investment. Mexico with a total capacity of around 10.9 The third project is a planned tender for a
Rising output from Vaca Muerta could bcf per day, according to US energy data. floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU)
help the country export more than it imports That includes Howard Energy’s 600 mcf at the port of Pajaritos in Veracruz. However,
by 2021, Argentina’s energy minister Juan Jose per day Impulsora pipeline in Texas, which is last month the Pajaritos project lost one of
Aranguren said at a news conference. The expected to enter service this month. Analysts its two sponsors, a marketing subsidiary of
country is set to import slightly more than 50 have said, however, that constraints on the federal power utility Comision Federal de
cargoes of LNG this year, down from 68 last Mexican side of the border have so far limited Electricidad (CFE). The other sponsor, a
year and 90 in 2015. a big increase in US pipeline exports. subsidiary of Pemex, is still preparing the
SANTIAGO TIMES (CHILE), June 14, 2018 WORLD PIPELINES (US), June 14, 2018 bidding documents.
NGI, June 13, 2018
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