La Tierra

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
IV. CALCULOS
4 . COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS - ESTACIÓN HIDROMÉTRICOS DE CHANCOS
1.. DATOS INCOMPLETOS (Completar los meses,Enero,Noviembre y Diciembre)
CAUDAL MENSUAL CHANCOS (m3/s)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1953 120.3 145.0 122.8 96.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.7 42.5 32.2
1954 145.5 24.3 79.0 0.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 7.3 60.8 49.2 18.3
1955 163.4 133.5 48.6 45.6 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 24.9 13.3 9.1
1956 21.3 113.6 191.4 43.1 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.2 3.4 3.0 7.3
1957 185.0 192.0 55.9 9.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4 57.7 33.4
1958 11.7 70.5 333.3 98.4 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 44.3 6.1
1959 43.7 107.0 46.2 161.0 76.5 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.1 74.0 85.0
1960 79.0 164.0 115.4 94.2 24.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 14.6 19.4 21.3
1961 17.6 19.4 158.0 151.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.1 121.5
1962 94.2 189.6 60.3 22.5 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 46.2 10.3
1963 105.1 91.7 175.3 107.5 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.9 77.7 106.3
1964 47.4 97.2 72.9 96.0 34.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 17.0 6.7 3.0
1965 40.7 40.1 120.3 57.7 37.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.2 26.1 49.3 49.2
1966 91.7 35.0 93.0 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 63.8 40.7 66.8
1967 41.3 151.9 208.9 17.0 12.8 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 99.0 1.8 3.0
1968 69.3 11.6 83.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 7.9 60.7 7.9 41.3
1969 24.9 72.9 89.3 78.4 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.6 43.7 142.1
1970 80.8 43.7 96.0 38.9 35.8 11.5 2.4 13.4 47.4 34.7 41.5 69.9
1971 22.5 94.8 216.9 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 33.4 45.0 28.6
1972 158.6 110.0 179.2 77.2 16.4 0.0 0.0 9.7 11.6 0.0 52.2 68.0
1973 79.0 49.2 142.2 72.9 20.7 0.0 5.5 1.2 19.5 62.0 67.5 93.6
1974 110.0 100.9 75.9 31.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 5.5 7.9
1975 154.9 121.5 209.6 94.2 13.4 0.0 0.0 12.8 22.5 26.8 45.5 42.5
1976 95.4 120.3 68.1 105.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
1977 62.0 201.7 89.3 35.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 57.1 75.4
1978 101.4 137.3 10.9 33.4 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.2 29.2 18.8 27.9
1979 66.2 54.7 135.5 129.4 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.0 24.3 3.2 42.5
1980 49.3 24.3 108.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.2 87.5 68.7
1981 54.0 190.1 170.7 41.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 58.3 129.5 10.3
1982 75.9 22.5 55.3 73.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 128.2 147.1 86.8
1983 122.1 59.8 150.0 162.9 110.1 19.4 0.0 0.0 6.1 27.3 117.9
1984 77.3 71.0 245.1 71.5 30.4 0.0 0.0 9.0 7.4 69.9 32.8 68.1
1985 10.3 82.1 99.0 13.4 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.5 0.0 12.2 71.1
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
2.. COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS ( para completar los datos , se eligió la est. De Huraz ,Llanganuco y Parón
por ser la unica que tiene los datos de los meses que necesitamos yestar dentro de la cuenca del Santa)
Enero (Chancos -Huaraz)

a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )
Año Chan( y )Qr. ( x )
1953 120.3 139.0 Regresión r2
1954 145.5 209.6 lineal y = ax + b 0.2770
1955 163.4 89.1 logaritmica y = a + b.lnx 0.2758
1956 21.3 79.6 polinomial y = ax + bx + c 0.2942
2
(ver grafico)
1957 15.4 potencial y = a.xb 0.2313
1958 11.7 50.5 exponencial y = a.ebx 0.2568
1959 43.7 10.7
1960 79.0 64.0
1961 17.6 128.8 Número de pares de datos: n= 29
1962 94.2 121.2
1963 105.1 84.2 b. Regresión con r2 mayor
1964 47.4 42.1
1965 40.7 54.1 Regresión Polinomial: y = -0.0019x2 + 0.8816x + 11.182
1966 91.7 154.4
1967 41.3 90.3 Coefientes r y r2: r2 = 0.294
1968 69.3 73.1 r = 0.542
1969 24.9 29.7
1970 80.8 123.0 c. Parametros de Significancia: Prueba "t"
1971 22.5
1972 158.6 Hipotesis: Ho : r = 0; No hay correlación
1973 79.0 Ha : r ¿ 0; Si hay correlación
1974 110.0 129.1
1975 154.9 142.0 Calculo de tc:
1976 95.4 162.9
1977 62.0 197.4 r √ n− 2 tc = 3.355
t c=
1978 101.4 62.0 √1− r 2
1979 66.2 89.7
1980 49.3 Calculo de tt:
1981 54.0 120.8
1982 75.9 84.2 Para un 95% de probabilidad
1983 122.1 126.2
1984 77.3 122.3 a/2 = 0.025
1985 10.3 48.9 V = n - 2 = 27
Tenemos en la Tabla: tt = 2.052
Decisión:
tc = 3.355 tt = 2.052
Como: ltcl > tt

Entonces: Ha : r ≠ 0 , si hay correlación
Por lo tanto puedo completar los datos del mes de

Enero de la estación de CHANCOS, con la ecuación:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
y = -0.0019x2 + 0.8816x + 11.182
Noviembre (Chancos - Llanganuco)
Año Chan( y ) Qr ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

1953 42.5 17.8
1954 49.2 46.8 Regresión r2
1955 13.3 17.8 lineal y = ax + b 0.5442
1957 57.7 58.8 polinomial y = ax2 + bx + c 0.5568 (ver grafico)
1958 6.1 11.3 potencial y = a.x b
0.6562
1960 19.4 63.8
1961 43.1 134.8
1963 77.7 128.1
1965 49.3 73.7
1966 40.7 58.1 Regresión:
1967 1.8 12.4 y = 0.5288x1.0531
1968 7.9 36.1
1969 43.7 88.3 Coefiente r y r2: r2 = 0.656
1970 41.5 39.1 r= 0.810
1971 45.0 87.1
1973 67.5 109.6
1974 28.4 Hipotesis: Ho : r = 0; Nohay correlación
1975 45.5 40.2 Ha : r ¿ 0; Si hay correlación
1976 23.7
1977 57.1 62.2 Calculo de tc:
1978 18.8 26.1
1979 42.5 49.2
r √ n−2
1980 87.5 175.9 t c= tc = 7.310
1981 129.5 113.1 √1−r 2
1982 147.1 133.2
1983 13.6 Calculo de tt:
1984 32.8 62.1
a/2 = 0.025
V=n-2 = 28
Decisión:
tc = 7.310 tt = 2.048
Como: ltcl > tt


Noviembre de la estación de CHANCOS, con la ecuación:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
y = 0.5288x1.0531
DICIEMBRE (Chancos - Parón)
Año Chan( y )Qr. ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

1953 32.2 107.1
1954 18.3 161.3 Regresión r2
1955 9.1 118.4 lineal y = ax + b 0.0889
1958 28.1 potencial y = a.xb 0.1617
1960 21.3 49.6
1961 121.5 86.7
1963 106.3 159.3
1965 49.2 136.6
1966 66.8 56.4 Regresión:
1967 3.0 34.1 y = 0.2477x1.0819
1968 41.3 77.8
1969 142.1 86.5 Coefiente r y r2: r2 = 0.162
1970 69.9 91.9 r = 0.4021
1971 28.6 126.2
1973 93.6 197.0
1974 7.9 75.4 Hipotesis: Ho : r = 0, No hay correlación
1976 6.1 83.3
1977 75.4 123.6 Calculo de tc:
1978 27.9 66.9
1979 88.9
r √ n−2
1980 68.7 74.7 t c= tc = 2.365
1981 10.3 173.4 √1−r 2
1982 86.8 69.3
1983 117.9 171.4 Calculo de tt:
1984 68.1 104.1
a/2 = 0.025
V=n-2 = 29
Decisión:
tc = 2.365 tt = 2.045
Como: ltcl > tt


Diciembre de la estación de CHANCOS, con la ecuación:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
y = 0.2477x1.0819
3.. CAUDAL MENSUAL DE CHANCOS (m3/s) - (DATOS COMPLETADOS)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC ANUAL
1953 120.3 145 122.8 96.1 0 0 0 0 0 26.7 42.5 32.2 585.60
1954 145.5 24.3 79 0.3 0 4.9 0 0 7.3 60.8 49.2 18.3 389.6
1955 163.4 133.5 48.6 45.6 10.3 0 0 0 6.7 24.9 13.3 9.1 455.4
1956 21.3 113.6 191.4 43.1 5.5 0 0 0 18.2 3.4 3 7.3 406.8
1957 24.3 185 192 55.9 9.1 1.8 0 0 0 44.4 57.7 33.4 603.61
1958 11.7 70.5 333.3 98.4 4.9 0 0 0 8.5 44.3 6.1 9.1 586.85
1959 43.7 107 46.2 161 76.5 3.6 0 0 0 40.1 74 85 637.1
1960 79 164 115.4 94.2 24.3 0 0 0 4.9 14.6 19.4 21.3 537.1
1961 17.6 19.4 158 151.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 43.1 121.5 511.5
1962 94.2 189.6 60.3 22.5 6.7 0 0 0 0 8.5 46.2 10.3 438.3
1963 105.1 91.7 175.3 107.5 22.5 0 0 0 0 27.9 77.7 106.3 714
1964 47.4 97.2 72.9 96 34.1 0 0 9.1 0 17 6.7 3 383.4
1965 40.7 40.1 120.3 57.7 37.1 0 0 0 49.2 26.1 49.3 49.2 469.7
1966 91.7 35 93 18.2 0 0 0 0 7.9 63.8 40.7 66.8 417.1
1967 41.3 151.9 208.9 17 12.8 0 5.5 0 0 99 1.8 3 541.2
1968 69.3 11.6 83.2 3 0 0 0 9.7 7.9 60.7 7.9 41.3 294.6
1969 24.9 72.9 89.3 78.4 8.5 0 0 0 0 28.6 43.7 142.1 488.4
1970 80.8 43.7 96 38.9 35.8 11.5 2.4 13.4 47.4 34.7 41.5 69.9 516
1971 22.5 94.8 216.9 27.3 0 0 0 0 13.9 33.4 45 28.6 482.4
1972 158.6 110 179.2 77.2 16.4 0 0 9.7 11.6 0 52.2 68 682.9
1973 79 49.2 142.2 72.9 20.7 0 5.5 1.2 19.5 62 67.5 93.6 613.3
1974 110 100.9 75.9 31.6 0 0 0 0 4.9 5.5 17.9 7.9 354.64
1975 154.9 121.5 209.6 94.2 13.4 0 0 12.8 22.5 26.8 45.5 42.5 743.7
1976 95.4 120.3 68.1 105.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.8 6.1 410.53
1977 62 201.7 89.3 35.2 6.7 0 0 0 0 3.6 57.1 75.4 531
1978 101.4 137.3 10.9 33.4 14.6 0 0 0 32.2 29.2 18.8 27.9 405.7
1979 66.2 54.7 135.5 129.4 15.8 0 0 14 24.3 3.2 42.5 31.8 517.4
1980 49.3 24.3 108.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 108.2 87.5 68.7 446.1
1981 54 190.1 170.7 41.9 0 0 0 0 7.3 58.3 129.5 10.3 662.1
1982 75.9 22.5 55.3 73 3.6 0 0 0 0 128.2 147.1 86.8 592.4
1983 122.1 59.8 150 162.9 110.1 19.4 0 0 6.1 27.3 8.3 117.9 783.86
1984 77.3 71 245.1 71.5 30.4 0 0 9 7.4 69.9 32.8 68.1 682.5
1985 10.3 82.1 99 13.4 15.2 0 0 0 67.5 0 12.2 71.1 370.8
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
4.6 ANÁLISIS DE CONSISTENCIA

1.. MÉTODO VISUAL GRÁFICO
AÑOS CHANCOS CONTEO

Jan-53 120.3 1 Jan-57 24.3 49 Jan-61 17.6 97
Feb-53 145.0 2 Feb-57 185 50 Feb-61 19.4 98
Mar-53 122.8 3 Mar-57 192 51 Mar-61 158 99
Apr-53 96.1 4 Apr-57 55.9 52 Apr-61 151.9 100
May-53 0.0 5 May-57 9.1 53 May-61 0 101
Jun-53 0.0 6 Jun-57 1.8 54 Jun-61 0 102
1953 1957 1961
Jul-53 0.0 7 Jul-57 0 55 Jul-61 0 103
Aug-53 0.0 8 Aug-57 0 56 Aug-61 0 104
Sep-53 0.0 9 Sep-57 0 57 Sep-61 0 105
Oct-53 26.7 10 Oct-57 44.4 58 Oct-61 0 106
Nov-53 42.5 11 Nov-57 57.7 59 Nov-61 43.1 107
Dec-53 32.2 12 Dec-57 33.4 60 Dec-61 121.5 108
Jan-54 145.5 13 Jan-58 11.7 61 Jan-62 94.2 109
Feb-54 24.3 14 Feb-58 70.5 62 Feb-62 189.6 110
Mar-54 79.0 15 Mar-58 333.3 63 Mar-62 60.3 111
Apr-54 0.3 16 Apr-58 98.4 64 Apr-62 22.5 112
May-54 0.0 17 May-58 4.9 65 May-62 6.7 113
Jun-54 4.9 18 Jun-58 0 66 Jun-62 0.0 114
1954 1958 1962
Jul-54 0.0 19 Jul-58 0 67 Jul-62 0.0 115
Aug-54 0.0 20 Aug-58 0 68 Aug-62 0.0 116
Sep-54 7.3 21 Sep-58 8.5 69 Sep-62 0.0 117
Oct-54 60.8 22 Oct-58 44.3 70 Oct-62 8.5 118
Nov-54 49.2 23 Nov-58 6.1 71 Nov-62 46.2 119
Dec-54 18.3 24 Dec-58 9.147 72 Dec-62 10.3 120
Jan-55 163.4 25 Jan-59 43.7 73 Jan-63 105.1 121
Feb-55 133.5 26 Feb-59 107 74 Feb-63 91.7 122
Mar-55 48.6 27 Mar-59 46.2 75 Mar-63 175.3 123
Apr-55 45.6 28 Apr-59 161 76 Apr-63 107.5 124
May-55 10.3 29 May-59 76.5 77 May-63 22.5 125
Jun-55 0.0 30 Jun-59 3.6 78 Jun-63 0.0 126
1955 1959 1963
Jul-55 0.0 31 Jul-59 0 79 Jul-63 0.0 127
Aug-55 0.0 32 Aug-59 0 80 Aug-63 0.0 128
Sep-55 6.7 33 Sep-59 0 81 Sep-63 0.0 129
Oct-55 24.9 34 Oct-59 40.1 82 Oct-63 27.9 130
Nov-55 13.3 35 Nov-59 74 83 Nov-63 77.7 131
Dec-55 9.1 36 Dec-59 85 84 Dec-63 106.3 132
Jan-56 21.3 37 Jan-60 79 85 Jan-64 47.4 133
Feb-56 113.6 38 Feb-60 164 86 Feb-64 97.2 134
Mar-56 191.4 39 Mar-60 115.4 87 Mar-64 72.9 135
Apr-56 43.1 40 Apr-60 94.2 88 Apr-64 96.0 136
May-56 5.5 41 May-60 24.3 89 May-64 34.1 137
Jun-56 0.0 42 Jun-60 0 90 Jun-64 0.0 138
1956 1960 1964
Jul-56 0.0 43 Jul-60 0 91 Jul-64 0.0 139
Aug-56 0.0 44 Aug-60 0 92 Aug-64 9.1 140
Sep-56 18.2 45 Sep-60 4.9 93 Sep-64 0.0 141
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1956 1960 1964
Oct-56 3.4 46 Oct-60 14.6 94 Oct-64 17.0 142

Nov-56 3.0 47 Nov-60 19.4 95 Nov-64 6.7 143
Dec-56 7.3 48 Dec-60 21.3 96 Dec-64 3.0 144
Jan-65 40.7 145 Jan-70 80.8 205 Jan-75 154.9 265

Feb-65 40.1 146 Feb-70 43.7 206 Feb-75 121.5 266
Mar-65 120.3 147 Mar-70 96.0 207 Mar-75 209.6 267
Apr-65 57.7 148 Apr-70 38.9 208 Apr-75 94.2 268
May-65 37.1 149 May-70 35.8 209 May-75 13.4 269
Jun-65 0.0 150 Jun-70 11.5 210 Jun-75 0.0 270
1965 1970 1975
Jul-65 0.0 151 Jul-70 2.4 211 Jul-75 0.0 271
Aug-65 0.0 152 Aug-70 13.4 212 Aug-75 12.8 272
Sep-65 49.2 153 Sep-70 47.4 213 Sep-75 22.5 273
Oct-65 26.1 154 Oct-70 34.7 214 Oct-75 26.8 274
Nov-65 49.3 155 Nov-70 41.5 215 Nov-75 45.5 275
Dec-65 49.2 156 Dec-70 69.9 216 Dec-75 42.5 276
Jan-66 91.7 157 Jan-71 22.5 217 Jan-76 95.4 277
Feb-66 35.0 158 Feb-71 94.8 218 Feb-76 120.3 278
Mar-66 93.0 159 Mar-71 216.9 219 Mar-76 68.1 279
Apr-66 18.2 160 Apr-71 27.3 220 Apr-76 105.8 280
May-66 0.0 161 May-71 0.0 221 May-76 0 281
Jun-66 0.0 162 Jun-71 0.0 222 Jun-76 0 282
1966 1971 1976 0
Jul-66 0.0 163 Jul-71 0.0 223 Jul-76 283
Aug-66 0.0 164 Aug-71 0.0 224 Aug-76 0 284
Sep-66 7.9 165 Sep-71 13.9 225 Sep-76 0 285
Oct-66 63.8 166 Oct-71 33.4 226 Oct-76 0 286
Nov-66 40.7 167 Nov-71 45.0 227 Nov-76 14.83 287
Dec-66 66.8 168 Dec-71 28.6 228 Dec-76 6.1 288
Jan-67 41.3 169 Jan-72 158.6 229 Jan-77 62.0 289
Feb-67 151.9 170 Feb-72 110.0 230 Feb-77 201.7 290
Mar-67 208.9 171 Mar-72 179.2 231 Mar-77 89.3 291
Apr-67 17.0 172 Apr-72 77.2 232 Apr-77 35.2 292
May-67 12.8 173 May-72 16.4 233 May-77 6.7 293
Jun-67 0.0 174 Jun-72 0.0 234 Jun-77 0.0 294
1967 1972 1977
Jul-67 5.5 175 Jul-72 0.0 235 Jul-77 0.0 295
Aug-67 0.0 176 Aug-72 9.7 236 Aug-77 0.0 296
Sep-67 0.0 177 Sep-72 11.6 237 Sep-77 0.0 297
Oct-67 99.0 178 Oct-72 0.0 238 Oct-77 3.6 298
Nov-67 1.8 179 Nov-72 52.2 239 Nov-77 57.1 299
Dec-67 3.0 180 Dec-72 68.0 240 Dec-77 75.4 300
Jan-68 69.3 181 Jan-73 79.0 241 Jan-78 101.4 301
Feb-68 11.6 182 Feb-73 49.2 242 Feb-78 137.3 302
Mar-68 83.2 183 Mar-73 142.2 243 Mar-78 10.9 303
Apr-68 3.0 184 Apr-73 72.9 244 Apr-78 33.4 304
May-68 0.0 185 May-73 20.7 245 May-78 14.6 305
Jun-68 0.0 186 Jun-73 0.0 246 Jun-78 0.0 306
1968 1973 1978
Jul-68 0.0 187 Jul-73 5.5 247 Jul-78 0.0 307
Aug-68 9.7 188 Aug-73 1.2 248 Aug-78 0.0 308
Sep-68 7.9 189 Sep-73 19.5 249 Sep-78 32.2 309
Oct-68 60.7 190 Oct-73 62.0 250 Oct-78 29.2 310
Nov-68 7.9 191 Nov-73 67.5 251 Nov-78 18.8 311
Dec-68 41.3 192 Dec-73 93.6 252 Dec-78 27.9 312
Jan-69 24.9 193 Jan-74 110 253 Jan-79 66.2 313
Feb-69 72.9 194 Feb-74 100.9 254 Feb-79 54.7 314
Mar-69 89.3 195 Mar-74 75.9 255 Mar-79 135.5 315
Apr-69 78.4 196 Apr-74 31.6 256 Apr-79 129.4 316
May-69 8.5 197 May-74 0 257 May-79 15.8 317
Jun-69 0.0 198 Jun-74 0 258 Jun-79 0 318
1969 1974 0 259 1979 0
Jul-69 0.0 199 Jul-74 Jul-79 319
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1969 1974 1979

Aug-69 0.0 200 Aug-74 0 260 Aug-79 14 320
Sep-69 0.0 201 Sep-74 4.9 261 Sep-79 24.3 321
Oct-69 28.6 202 Oct-74 5.5 262 Oct-79 3.2 322
Nov-69 43.7 203 Nov-74 17.94 263 Nov-79 42.5 323
Dec-69 142.1 204 Dec-74 7.9 264 Dec-79 31.8 324
Jan-80 49.3 325 Jan-85 10.3 385

Feb-80 24.3 326 Feb-85 82.1 386
Mar-80 108.1 327 Mar-85 99.0 387
Apr-80 0.0 328 Apr-85 13.4 388
May-80 0.0 329 May-85 15.2 389
Jun-80 0.0 330 Jun-85 0.0 390
1980 1985
Jul-80 0.0 331 Jul-85 0.0 391
Aug-80 0.0 332 Aug-85 0.0 392
Sep-80 0.0 333 Sep-85 67.5 393
Oct-80 108.2 334 Oct-85 0.0 394
Nov-80 87.5 335 Nov-85 12.2 395
Dec-80 68.7 336 Dec-85 71.1 396
Jan-81 54.0 337
Feb-81 190.1 338
Mar-81 170.7 339
Apr-81 41.9 340
May-81 0.0 341
Jun-81 0.0 342
1981
Jul-81 0.0 343
Aug-81 0.0 344
Sep-81 7.3 345
Oct-81 58.3 346
Nov-81 129.5 347
Dec-81 10.3 348
Jan-82 75.9 349
Feb-82 22.5 350
Mar-82 55.3 351
Apr-82 73.0 352
May-82 3.6 353
Jun-82 0.0 354
1982
Jul-82 0.0 355
Aug-82 0.0 356
Sep-82 0.0 357
Oct-82 128.2 358
Nov-82 147.1 359
Dec-82 86.8 360
Jan-83 122.1 361
Feb-83 59.8 362
Mar-83 150 363
Apr-83 162.9 364
May-83 110.1 365
Jun-83 19.4 366
1983 0
Jul-83 367
Aug-83 0 368
Sep-83 6.1 369
Oct-83 27.3 370
Nov-83 8.3 371
Dec-83 117.9 372
Jan-84 77.3 373
Feb-84 71.0 374
Mar-84 245.1 375
Apr-84 71.5 376
May-84 30.4 377
Jun-84 0.0 378
1984
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1984
Jul-84 0.0 379
Aug-84 9.0 380
Sep-84 7.4 381
Oct-84 69.9 382
Nov-84 32.8 383
Dec-84 68.1 384
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
nca del Santa)
16x + 11.182
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
IV. CALCULOS
COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS - ESTACIÓN HIDROMÉTRICOS DE CHANCOS
1.. DATOS INCOMPLETOS (Completar los meses,Abril, Mayo,Junio)
CAUDAL MENSUAL CHANCOS (m3/s)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1953 7.28 13.01 14.53 4.04 4.12 4.92 6.02 8.98 10.02
1954 11.22 10.05 11.76 7.6 5.42 4.12 4.31 3.84 3.74 4.73 5.11 6.62
1955 6.59 16.45 14.06 9.69 5.02 3.42 3.09 3.38 2.84 4.33 5.02 6.44
1956 8.41 11.62 11.95 10.62 5.22 3.18 3.2 3.69 2.9 4.02 5 6.17
1957 6.27 11.38 10.97 12.29 6.18 3.08 3.65 3.97 4.83 6.87 8.92 8.75
1958 9.13 9.14 9.96 8.85 7.06 5.5 4.93 5.03 5.11 6.14 8.89 10.21
1959 12.05 12.98 13.23 11.84 7.89 4.99 4.49 4.85 4.71 7.06 8.38 10.66
1960 9.32 9.87 15.29 14.6 10.12 7.48 5.89 6.44 2.63 7.6 9.37 12.5
1961 17.51 12.31 14.12 10.96 6.13 3.87 3.35 3.3 2.64 3.97 5.69 8.09
1962 15.39 16.48 17.6 11.74 6.07 4.76 4.35 4.53 4.27 6.27 7.12 6.64
1963 10.14 11.31 15.56 16.05 6.37 4.47 3.95 3.98 5.13 5.98 9.55 13.47
1964 12.54 12.3 12.65 10.25 6.64 4.86 5.07 5.13 4.01 5.98 8.04 6.48
1965 6.1 8.06 12.39 8 5.41 3.74 3.07 3.48 4.3 5.81 6.7 8.81
1966 9.99 11.15 9.27 7.89 7.35 6.02 6.22 5.67 6.49 7.09 8.36 8.07
1967 10.74 19.52 16.51 7.43 5.49 4.37 3.67 3.52 3.86 5.86 7.66 7.73
1968 9.96 8.39 9.68 6.1 4.42 3.82 3.56 3.41 4.27 5.73 6.3 8.06
1969 8.8 8.3 10.63 13.65 8.82 6.74 5.32 6.25 6.29 8.5 10.86 11.35
1970 11.12 10.39 10.98 12.2 8.29 6.08 5.88 5.66 4.4 6.24 8.4 9.07
1971 9.72 13.58 20.83 10.76 5.41 4.09 3.73 3.4 4.14 5.69 5.9 7.6
1972 8.16 10.85 21.44 6.87 5.03 3.72 3.66 3.76 3.76 4.96 6.94 7.62
1973 9.67 10.03 11.36 13.47 7.6 4.52 3.58 3.82 4.4 5.96 8.13 8.01
1974 11.01 11.61 13.24 10.99 4.87 4.3 3.51 3.37 3.5 4.72 6.47 8.41
1975 11.72 11.45 16.77 9.33 6.56 3.77 3.59 4.14 3.78 5.19 5.24 4.94
1976 8.56 12.63 12.67 6.69 6.62 4.62 4.22 4.32 6.33 8.86 8.93 9.03
1977 13.86 14.3 14.61 13.8 8.85 5.75 5.23 5.29 4.83 12.51 16.79 17.4
1978 19.06 22.98 20.47 16.02 13.96 6.76 5.49 5.43 6.42 6.68 8.93 11.87
1979 11.6 14.8 20.11 11.57 7.39 6.38 5.13 5.72 6.82 8.62 9.8 11.25
1980 12.31 14.56 11.23 10.31 6.13 5.98 4.81 5.02 8.3 11.74 4.85 11.78
1981 10.51 18.4 17.24 12.33 7.16 5.25 5.24 4.58 5.13 10.67 13.52 9.4
1982 10.94 17.62 14.44 12.55 7.94 6.24 4.2 4.68 5.67 10.38 12.66 14.87
1983 20.35 17.58 19.73 17.05 12.87 7.19 7.05 6.27 7.16 12.23 10.36 9.49
1984 9.72 15.8 20.61 14.1 6.88 4.25 4.27 4.65 4.99 7.08 6.31 11.31
1985 11.46 11.5 11.54 13.05 3.92 3.22 3.19 3.64 5.51 5.34 6.16 8.5
1986 12.69 10.64 10.77 13.03 7 5.19 4.37 4.5 4.76 7.28 8.33 10.51
1987 14.39 15.4 15.3 12.87 7.82 4.3 3.97 3.98 5.25 8.42 12.26 14.19
1988 16.3 17.58 13.41 11.21 5.98 3.93 3.32 3.79 5.03 6.9 8.96 6.43
1989 9.88 13.8 14.74 15.01 5.41 3.03 2.38 2.68 3.39 6.27 7.48 9.18
1990 10.67 12.51 9.9 7.56 3.08 2.92 2.52 2.65 4.43 7.72 10.76 10.43
1991 10.89 12.64 17.51 9.37 5.97 4.4 3.59 3.95 4.53 4.71 5.65 8.6
1992 8.86 10.49 6.22 4.12 2.52 1.12 2.06 2.41 2.51 2.85 3.39 4.16
1993 8.37 15.04 13.32 13.66 7.33 3.73 3.3 3.37 3.97 5.81 8.47 18.84
1994 14.64 14.46 12.21 12.33 9.37 4.41 3.48 4.06 5.16 6.02 9.45 16.38
1995 12.36 11.99 10.36 7.92 5.2 4.62 5.14 5.21 5.34 7.5 8.93 7.87
1996 11.14 16.66 7.2 14.91 7.67 5.92 5.47 4.79 4.79 8.01 9.76 10.91
1997 10.76 9.01 12.22 6.16 6 8.29 4.238 4.386 6.32 7.08 16.69 46.67
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1998 44.33 59.95 52.89 35.78 16.36 7.19 6.16 7.56 13.69 10.81 13.33 11.52
1999 14.29 48.58 29.63 8.27 6.78
2.. COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS ( para completar los datos de los 3 primeros meses, se eligió la est.
de Querococha, por ser la unica que tiene los datos de los meses
que necesitamos yestar dentro de la cuenca del Santa
ABRIL (Chancos - Querococha)
a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )
Año Chan( y )Qr. ( x )
1953 2.81 Regresión r2
1954 7.6 1.75 lineal y = ax + b 0.133
1957 12.29 2.15 potencial y = a.xb 0.280
1959 11.84 2.34 inversa 1 / y = ax + b 0.059
1960 14.6 2.39
1962 11.74 2.47
1964 10.25 2.71
1965 8 2.29 Regresión lineal: y = 6.745x0.559
1966 7.89 1.87
1967 7.43 1.98 Coefientes r y r2: r2 = 0.280
1968 6.1 1.35 r = 0.529
1969 13.65 2.43
1971 10.76 2.46
1972 6.87 3.22 Hipotesis: Ho : r = 0; No hay correlación
1974 10.99 3.43
1975 9.33 2.48 Calculo de tc:
1976 6.69 2.17
1977 13.8 2.02 r √ n− 2 tc = 4.089
t c=
1978 16.02 1.90 √
1− r 2
1979 11.57 3.83
1980 10.31 1.83 Calculo de tt:
1981 12.33 2.32
1983 17.05 3.52
1984 14.1 3.27 a/2 = 0.025
1985 13.05 2.92 V = n - 2 = 43
1986 13.03 2.58
1987 12.87 1.52 Tenemos en la Tabla: tt = 1.96
1988 11.21 2.21
1989 15.01 3.07 Decisión:
1990 7.56 1.10
1991 9.37 1.84 tc = 4.089 tt = 1.96
1992 4.12 1.44
1993 13.66 3.28 Como: ltcl > tt
1994 12.33 3.90 Entonces: Ha : r ≠ 0 , si hay correlación
1995 7.92 2.65
1996 14.91 3.54
1997 6.16 0.75 Por lo tanto puedo completar los datos del mes de
1998 35.78 2.53 abril de la estación de CHANCOS, con la ecuación:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1999 8.27
46 y = 6.745x0.559
MAYO (Chancos - Querococha)
Año Chan( y ) Qr ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

1953 0.95
1954 5.42 1.23 0.1845 Regresión r2
1955 5.02 1.16 0.1992 lineal y = ax + b 0.1080
1956 5.22 0.92 0.1916 logaritmica y = a + b.lnx 0.1200
1957 6.18 1.23 0.1618 polinomial y = ax2 + bx + c 0.1200 (ver grafico)
1958 7.06 1.06 0.1416 potencial y = a.x b
0.1720
1959 7.89 1.36 0.1267 exponencial y = a.ebx 0.1470
1960 10.12 1.57 0.0988 inversa 1 / y = ax + b 0.1480
1961 6.13 1.25 0.1631
1962 6.07 1.06 0.1647 Número de pares de datos: n= 45
1963 6.37 1.02 0.157
1964 6.64 1.50 0.1506 b. Regresión con r2 mayor
1965 5.41 1.01 0.1848
1966 7.35 1.60 0.1361 Regresión:
1967 5.49 1.20 0.1821 y = 5.892x0.543
1968 4.42 0.69 0.2262
1969 8.82 1.04 0.1134 Coefiente r y r2: r2 = 0.172
1970 8.29 2.31 0.1206 r= 0.415
1971 5.41 1.09 0.1848
1972 5.03 1.39 0.1988 c. Parametros de Significancia: Prueba "t"
1973 7.6 1.24 0.1316
1974 4.87 1.04 0.2053 Hipotesis: Ho : r = 0; Nohay correlación
1975 6.56 2.15 0.1524 Ha : r ¿ 0; Si hay correlación
1976 6.62 0.95 0.1511
1977 8.85 1.25 0.113 Calculo de tc:
1978 13.96 1.38 0.0716
1979 7.39 1.49 0.1353
t c= √ 2
r n−2
1980 6.13 1.01 0.1631 tc = 2.989
1981 7.16 1.13 0.1397 √
1−r
1982 7.94 1.23 0.1259
1983 12.87 2.11 0.0777 Calculo de tt:
1984 6.88 1.96 0.1453
1985 3.92 1.43 0.2551 Para un 95% de probabilidad
1986 7 1.42 0.1429
1987 7.82 1.06 0.1279 a/2 = 0.025
1988 5.98 1.20 0.1672 V=n-2 = 43
1989 5.41 1.00 0.1848
1990 3.08 0.66 0.3247 Tenemos en la Tabla: tt = 1.96
1991 5.97 1.13 0.1675
1992 2.52 1.04 0.3968 Decisión:
1993 7.33 1.40 0.1364
1994 9.37 0.85 0.1067 tc = 2.989 tt = 1.96
1995 5.2 1.03 0.1923
1996 7.67 1.53 0.1304 Como: ltcl > tt
1997 6 1.25 0.1667 Entonces: Ha : r ≠ 0 , si hay correlación
1998 16.36 1.11 0.0611
1999 6.78 0.1475 Por lo tanto puedo completar los datos del mes de
mayo de la estación de CHANCOS, con la ecuación:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
y = 5.892x0.543
JUNIO (Chancos - Querococha)
Año Chan( y )Qr. ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

1953 0.47
1954 4.12 0.46 Regresión r2
1955 3.42 0.52 lineal y = ax + b 0.0870
1958 5.5 0.65 potencial y = a.xb 0.0610
1960 7.48 0.66 inversa 1 / y = ax + b 0.0180
1961 3.87 0.80
1963 4.47 0.62
1965 3.74 0.47
1966 6.02 0.76 Regresión:
1967 4.37 0.62 y = 1.871ln(x) + 5.580
1968 3.82 0.46
1969 6.74 0.70 Coefiente r y r2: r2 = 0.097
1970 6.08 1.26 r= 0.3114
1971 4.09 0.62
1973 4.52 0.78
1974 4.3 0.78 Hipotesis: Ho : r = 0, No hay correlación
1976 4.62 0.68
1977 5.75 0.68 Calculo de tc:
1978 6.76 0.82
1979 6.38 0.75
r √ n−2
1980 5.98 0.66 t c= tc = 2.149
1981 5.25 0.63 √1−r 2
1982 6.24 0.72
1983 7.19 1.17 Calculo de tt:
1984 4.25 1.06
1986 5.19 0.56
1987 4.3 0.46 a/2 = 0.025
1988 3.93 0.60 V=n-2 = 43
1989 3.03 0.50
1990 2.92 0.68 Tenemos en la Tabla: tt = 1.96
1991 4.4 0.56
1992 1.12 0.70 Decisión:
1993 3.73 0.67
1994 4.41 0.45 tc = 2.149 tt = 1.96
1995 4.62 0.47
1996 5.92 0.64 Como: ltcl > tt
1997 8.29 0.67 Entonces: Ha : r ≠ 0 , si hay correlación
1998 7.19 0.65
junio de la estación de CHANCOS, con la ecuación:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
y = 1.871ln(x) + 5.580
3.. CAUDAL MENSUAL DE CHANCOS (m3/s) - (DATOS COMPLETADOS)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC ANUAL
1953 7.28 13.01 14.53 12.0 5.7 4.2 4.04 4.12 4.92 6.02 8.98 10.02 94.83
1954 11.22 10.05 11.76 7.6 5.42 4.12 4.31 3.84 3.74 4.73 5.11 6.62 78.52
1955 6.59 16.45 14.06 9.69 5.02 3.42 3.09 3.38 2.84 4.33 5.02 6.44 80.33
1956 8.41 11.62 11.95 10.62 5.22 3.18 3.2 3.69 2.9 4.02 5 6.17 75.98
1957 6.27 11.38 10.97 12.29 6.18 3.08 3.65 3.97 4.83 6.87 8.92 8.75 87.16
1958 9.13 9.14 9.96 8.85 7.06 5.5 4.93 5.03 5.11 6.14 8.89 10.21 89.95
1959 12.05 12.98 13.23 11.84 7.89 4.99 4.49 4.85 4.71 7.06 8.38 10.66 103.13
1960 9.32 9.87 15.29 14.6 10.12 7.48 5.89 6.44 2.63 7.6 9.37 12.5 111.11
1961 17.51 12.31 14.12 10.96 6.13 3.87 3.35 3.3 2.64 3.97 5.69 8.09 91.94
1962 15.39 16.48 17.6 11.74 6.07 4.76 4.35 4.53 4.27 6.27 7.12 6.64 105.22
1963 10.14 11.31 15.56 16.05 6.37 4.47 3.95 3.98 5.13 5.98 9.55 13.47 105.96
1964 12.54 12.3 12.65 10.25 6.64 4.86 5.07 5.13 4.01 5.98 8.04 6.48 93.95
1965 6.1 8.06 12.39 8 5.41 3.74 3.07 3.48 4.3 5.81 6.7 8.81 75.87
1966 9.99 11.15 9.27 7.89 7.35 6.02 6.22 5.67 6.49 7.09 8.36 8.07 93.57
1967 10.74 19.52 16.51 7.43 5.49 4.37 3.67 3.52 3.86 5.86 7.66 7.73 96.36
1968 9.96 8.39 9.68 6.1 4.42 3.82 3.56 3.41 4.27 5.73 6.3 8.06 73.7
1969 8.8 8.3 10.63 13.65 8.82 6.74 5.32 6.25 6.29 8.5 10.86 11.35 105.51
1970 11.12 10.39 10.98 12.2 8.29 6.08 5.88 5.66 4.4 6.24 8.4 9.07 98.71
1971 9.72 13.58 20.83 10.76 5.41 4.09 3.73 3.4 4.14 5.69 5.9 7.6 94.85
1972 8.16 10.85 21.44 6.87 5.03 3.72 3.66 3.76 3.76 4.96 6.94 7.62 86.77
1973 9.67 10.03 11.36 13.47 7.6 4.52 3.58 3.82 4.4 5.96 8.13 8.01 90.55
1974 11.01 11.61 13.24 10.99 4.87 4.3 3.51 3.37 3.5 4.72 6.47 8.41 86
1975 11.72 11.45 16.77 9.33 6.56 3.77 3.59 4.14 3.78 5.19 5.24 4.94 86.48
1976 8.56 12.63 12.67 6.69 6.62 4.62 4.22 4.32 6.33 8.86 8.93 9.03 93.48
1977 13.86 14.3 14.61 13.8 8.85 5.75 5.23 5.29 4.83 12.51 16.79 17.4 133.22
1978 19.06 22.98 20.47 16.02 13.96 6.76 5.49 5.43 6.42 6.68 8.93 11.87 144.07
1979 11.6 14.8 20.11 11.57 7.39 6.38 5.13 5.72 6.82 8.62 9.8 11.25 119.19
1980 12.31 14.56 11.23 10.31 6.13 5.98 4.81 5.02 8.3 11.74 4.85 11.78 107.02
1981 10.51 18.4 17.24 12.33 7.16 5.25 5.24 4.58 5.13 10.67 13.52 9.4 119.43
1982 10.94 17.62 14.44 12.55 7.94 6.24 4.2 4.68 5.67 10.38 12.66 14.87 122.19
1983 20.35 17.58 19.73 17.05 12.87 7.19 7.05 6.27 7.16 12.23 10.36 9.49 147.33
1984 9.72 15.8 20.61 14.1 6.88 4.25 4.27 4.65 4.99 7.08 6.31 11.31 109.97
1985 11.46 11.5 11.54 13.05 3.92 3.22 3.19 3.64 5.51 5.34 6.16 8.5 87.03
1986 12.69 10.64 10.77 13.03 7 5.19 4.37 4.5 4.76 7.28 8.33 10.51 99.07
1987 14.39 15.4 15.3 12.87 7.82 4.3 3.97 3.98 5.25 8.42 12.26 14.19 118.15
1988 16.3 17.58 13.41 11.21 5.98 3.93 3.32 3.79 5.03 6.9 8.96 6.43 102.84
1989 9.88 13.8 14.74 15.01 5.41 3.03 2.38 2.68 3.39 6.27 7.48 9.18 93.25
1990 10.67 12.51 9.9 7.56 3.08 2.92 2.52 2.65 4.43 7.72 10.76 10.43 85.15
1991 10.89 12.64 17.51 9.37 5.97 4.4 3.59 3.95 4.53 4.71 5.65 8.6 91.81
1992 8.86 10.49 6.22 4.12 2.52 1.12 2.06 2.41 2.51 2.85 3.39 4.16 50.71
1993 8.37 15.04 13.32 13.66 7.33 3.73 3.3 3.37 3.97 5.81 8.47 18.84 105.21
1994 14.64 14.46 12.21 12.33 9.37 4.41 3.48 4.06 5.16 6.02 9.45 16.38 111.97
1995 12.36 11.99 10.36 7.92 5.2 4.62 5.14 5.21 5.34 7.5 8.93 7.87 92.44
1996 11.14 16.66 7.2 14.91 7.67 5.92 5.47 4.79 4.79 8.01 9.76 10.91 107.23
1997 10.76 9.01 12.22 6.16 6 8.29 4.238 4.386 6.32 7.08 16.69 46.67 137.82
1998 44.33 59.95 52.89 35.78 16.36 7.19 6.16 7.56 13.69 10.81 13.33 11.52 279.57
1999 14.29 48.58 29.63 8.27 6.78 107.55
11.931 14.8755 14.96 11.55 6.921 4.7773 4.238 4.384 4.94 6.918 8.5391 10.57
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
4.6 ANÁLISIS DE CONSISTENCIA

1.. MÉTODO VISUAL GRÁFICO
AÑOS CHANCOS CONTEO

Jan-53 7.28 1 Jan-57 6.27 49 Jan-61 17.51 97
Feb-53 13.01 2 Feb-57 11.38 50 Feb-61 12.31 98
Mar-53 14.53 3 Mar-57 10.97 51 Mar-61 14.12 99
Apr-53 12.02 4 Apr-57 12.29 52 Apr-61 10.96 100
May-53 5.73 5 May-57 6.18 53 May-61 6.13 101
Jun-53 4.17 6 Jun-57 3.08 54 Jun-61 3.87 102
1953 1957 1961
Jul-53 4.04 7 Jul-57 3.65 55 Jul-61 3.35 103
Aug-53 4.12 8 Aug-57 3.97 56 Aug-61 3.30 104
Sep-53 4.92 9 Sep-57 4.83 57 Sep-61 2.64 105
Oct-53 6.02 10 Oct-57 6.87 58 Oct-61 3.97 106
Nov-53 8.98 11 Nov-57 8.92 59 Nov-61 5.69 107
Dec-53 10.02 12 Dec-57 8.75 60 Dec-61 8.09 108
Jan-54 11.22 13 Jan-58 9.13 61 Jan-62 15.39 109
Feb-54 10.05 14 Feb-58 9.14 62 Feb-62 16.48 110
Mar-54 11.76 15 Mar-58 9.96 63 Mar-62 17.60 111
Apr-54 7.60 16 Apr-58 8.85 64 Apr-62 11.74 112
May-54 5.42 17 May-58 7.06 65 May-62 6.07 113
Jun-54 4.12 18 Jun-58 5.50 66 Jun-62 4.76 114
1954 1958 1962
Jul-54 4.31 19 Jul-58 4.93 67 Jul-62 4.35 115
Aug-54 3.84 20 Aug-58 5.03 68 Aug-62 4.53 116
Sep-54 3.74 21 Sep-58 5.11 69 Sep-62 4.27 117
Oct-54 4.73 22 Oct-58 6.14 70 Oct-62 6.27 118
Nov-54 5.11 23 Nov-58 8.89 71 Nov-62 7.12 119
Dec-54 6.62 24 Dec-58 10.21 72 Dec-62 6.64 120
Jan-55 6.59 25 Jan-59 12.05 73 Jan-63 10.14 121
Feb-55 16.45 26 Feb-59 12.98 74 Feb-63 11.31 122
Mar-55 14.06 27 Mar-59 13.23 75 Mar-63 15.56 123
Apr-55 9.69 28 Apr-59 11.84 76 Apr-63 16.05 124
May-55 5.02 29 May-59 7.89 77 May-63 6.37 125
Jun-55 3.42 30 Jun-59 4.99 78 Jun-63 4.47 126
1955 1959 1963
Jul-55 3.09 31 Jul-59 4.49 79 Jul-63 3.95 127
Aug-55 3.38 32 Aug-59 4.85 80 Aug-63 3.98 128
Sep-55 2.84 33 Sep-59 4.71 81 Sep-63 5.13 129
Oct-55 4.33 34 Oct-59 7.06 82 Oct-63 5.98 130
Nov-55 5.02 35 Nov-59 8.38 83 Nov-63 9.55 131
Dec-55 6.44 36 Dec-59 10.66 84 Dec-63 13.47 132
Jan-56 8.41 37 Jan-60 9.32 85 Jan-64 12.54 133
Feb-56 11.62 38 Feb-60 9.87 86 Feb-64 12.30 134
Mar-56 11.95 39 Mar-60 15.29 87 Mar-64 12.65 135
Apr-56 10.62 40 Apr-60 14.60 88 Apr-64 10.25 136
May-56 5.22 41 May-60 10.12 89 May-64 6.64 137
Jun-56 3.18 42 Jun-60 7.48 90 Jun-64 4.86 138
1956 1960 1964
Jul-56 3.20 43 Jul-60 5.89 91 Jul-64 5.07 139
Aug-56 3.69 44 Aug-60 6.44 92 Aug-64 5.13 140
Sep-56 2.90 45 Sep-60 2.63 93 Sep-64 4.01 141
Oct-56 4.02 46 Oct-60 7.60 94 Oct-64 5.98 142
Nov-56 5.00 47 Nov-60 9.37 95 Nov-64 8.04 143
Dec-56 6.17 48 Dec-60 12.50 96 Dec-64 6.48 144
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Jan-65 6.10 145 Jan-70 11.12 205 Jan-75 11.72 265

Feb-65 8.06 146 Feb-70 10.39 206 Feb-75 11.45 266
Mar-65 12.39 147 Mar-70 10.98 207 Mar-75 16.77 267
Apr-65 8.00 148 Apr-70 12.20 208 Apr-75 9.33 268
May-65 5.41 149 May-70 8.29 209 May-75 6.56 269
Jun-65 3.74 150 Jun-70 6.08 210 Jun-75 3.77 270
1965 1970 1975
Jul-65 3.07 151 Jul-70 5.88 211 Jul-75 3.59 271
Aug-65 3.48 152 Aug-70 5.66 212 Aug-75 4.14 272
Sep-65 4.30 153 Sep-70 4.40 213 Sep-75 3.78 273
Oct-65 5.81 154 Oct-70 6.24 214 Oct-75 5.19 274
Nov-65 6.70 155 Nov-70 8.40 215 Nov-75 5.24 275
Dec-65 8.81 156 Dec-70 9.07 216 Dec-75 4.94 276
Jan-66 9.99 157 Jan-71 9.72 217 Jan-76 8.56 277
Feb-66 11.15 158 Feb-71 13.58 218 Feb-76 12.63 278
Mar-66 9.27 159 Mar-71 20.83 219 Mar-76 12.67 279
Apr-66 7.89 160 Apr-71 10.76 220 Apr-76 6.69 280
May-66 7.35 161 May-71 5.41 221 May-76 6.62 281
Jun-66 6.02 162 Jun-71 4.09 222 Jun-76 4.62 282
1966 1971 1976
Jul-66 6.22 163 Jul-71 3.73 223 Jul-76 4.22 283
Aug-66 5.67 164 Aug-71 3.40 224 Aug-76 4.32 284
Sep-66 6.49 165 Sep-71 4.14 225 Sep-76 6.33 285
Oct-66 7.09 166 Oct-71 5.69 226 Oct-76 8.86 286
Nov-66 8.36 167 Nov-71 5.90 227 Nov-76 8.93 287
Dec-66 8.07 168 Dec-71 7.60 228 Dec-76 9.03 288
Jan-67 10.74 169 Jan-72 8.16 229 Jan-77 13.86 289
Feb-67 19.52 170 Feb-72 10.85 230 Feb-77 14.30 290
Mar-67 16.51 171 Mar-72 21.44 231 Mar-77 14.61 291
Apr-67 7.43 172 Apr-72 6.87 232 Apr-77 13.80 292
May-67 5.49 173 May-72 5.03 233 May-77 8.85 293
Jun-67 4.37 174 Jun-72 3.72 234 Jun-77 5.75 294
1967 1972 1977
Jul-67 3.67 175 Jul-72 3.66 235 Jul-77 5.23 295
Aug-67 3.52 176 Aug-72 3.76 236 Aug-77 5.29 296
Sep-67 3.86 177 Sep-72 3.76 237 Sep-77 4.83 297
Oct-67 5.86 178 Oct-72 4.96 238 Oct-77 12.51 298
Nov-67 7.66 179 Nov-72 6.94 239 Nov-77 16.79 299
Dec-67 7.73 180 Dec-72 7.62 240 Dec-77 17.40 300
Jan-68 9.96 181 Jan-73 9.67 241 Jan-78 19.06 301
Feb-68 8.39 182 Feb-73 10.03 242 Feb-78 22.98 302
Mar-68 9.68 183 Mar-73 11.36 243 Mar-78 20.47 303
Apr-68 6.10 184 Apr-73 13.47 244 Apr-78 16.02 304
May-68 4.42 185 May-73 7.60 245 May-78 13.96 305
Jun-68 3.82 186 Jun-73 4.52 246 Jun-78 6.76 306
1968 1973 1978
Jul-68 3.56 187 Jul-73 3.58 247 Jul-78 5.49 307
Aug-68 3.41 188 Aug-73 3.82 248 Aug-78 5.43 308
Sep-68 4.27 189 Sep-73 4.40 249 Sep-78 6.42 309
Oct-68 5.73 190 Oct-73 5.96 250 Oct-78 6.68 310
Nov-68 6.30 191 Nov-73 8.13 251 Nov-78 8.93 311
Dec-68 8.06 192 Dec-73 8.01 252 Dec-78 11.87 312
Jan-69 8.80 193 Jan-74 11.01 253 Jan-79 11.60 313
Feb-69 8.30 194 Feb-74 11.61 254 Feb-79 14.80 314
Mar-69 10.63 195 Mar-74 13.24 255 Mar-79 20.11 315
Apr-69 13.65 196 Apr-74 10.99 256 Apr-79 11.57 316
May-69 8.82 197 May-74 4.87 257 May-79 7.39 317
Jun-69 6.74 198 Jun-74 4.30 258 Jun-79 6.38 318
1969 1974 1979
Jul-69 5.32 199 Jul-74 3.51 259 Jul-79 5.13 319
Aug-69 6.25 200 Aug-74 3.37 260 Aug-79 5.72 320
Sep-69 6.29 201 Sep-74 3.50 261 Sep-79 6.82 321
Oct-69 8.50 202 Oct-74 4.72 262 Oct-79 8.62 322
Nov-69 10.86 203 Nov-74 6.47 263 Nov-79 9.80 323
1969 1974 1979 FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Dec-69 11.35 204 Dec-74 8.41 264 Dec-79 11.25 324
Jan-80 12.31 325 Jan-85 11.46 385 Jan-90 10.67 445

Feb-80 14.56 326 Feb-85 11.50 386 Feb-90 12.51 446
Mar-80 11.23 327 Mar-85 11.54 387 Mar-90 9.90 447
Apr-80 10.31 328 Apr-85 13.05 388 Apr-90 7.56 448
May-80 6.13 329 May-85 3.92 389 May-90 3.08 449
Jun-80 5.98 330 Jun-85 3.22 390 Jun-90 2.92 450
1980 1985 1990
Jul-80 4.81 331 Jul-85 3.19 391 Jul-90 2.52 451
Aug-80 5.02 332 Aug-85 3.64 392 Aug-90 2.65 452
Sep-80 8.30 333 Sep-85 5.51 393 Sep-90 4.43 453
Oct-80 11.74 334 Oct-85 5.34 394 Oct-90 7.72 454
Nov-80 4.85 335 Nov-85 6.16 395 Nov-90 10.76 455
Dec-80 11.78 336 Dec-85 8.50 396 Dec-90 10.43 456
Jan-81 10.51 337 Jan-86 12.69 397 Jan-91 10.89 457
Feb-81 18.40 338 Feb-86 10.64 398 Feb-91 12.64 458
Mar-81 17.24 339 Mar-86 10.77 399 Mar-91 17.51 459
Apr-81 12.33 340 Apr-86 13.03 400 Apr-91 9.37 460
May-81 7.16 341 May-86 7.00 401 May-91 5.97 461
Jun-81 5.25 342 Jun-86 5.19 402 Jun-91 4.40 462
1981 1986 1991
Jul-81 5.24 343 Jul-86 4.37 403 Jul-91 3.59 463
Aug-81 4.58 344 Aug-86 4.50 404 Aug-91 3.95 464
Sep-81 5.13 345 Sep-86 4.76 405 Sep-91 4.53 465
Oct-81 10.67 346 Oct-86 7.28 406 Oct-91 4.71 466
Nov-81 13.52 347 Nov-86 8.33 407 Nov-91 5.65 467
Dec-81 9.40 348 Dec-86 10.51 408 Dec-91 8.60 468
Jan-82 10.94 349 Jan-87 14.39 409 Jan-92 8.86 469
Feb-82 17.62 350 Feb-87 15.40 410 Feb-92 10.49 470
Mar-82 14.44 351 Mar-87 15.30 411 Mar-92 6.22 471
Apr-82 12.55 352 Apr-87 12.87 412 Apr-92 4.12 472
May-82 7.94 353 May-87 7.82 413 May-92 2.52 473
Jun-82 6.24 354 Jun-87 4.30 414 Jun-92 1.12 474
1982 1987 1992
Jul-82 4.20 355 Jul-87 3.97 415 Jul-92 2.06 475
Aug-82 4.68 356 Aug-87 3.98 416 Aug-92 2.41 476
Sep-82 5.67 357 Sep-87 5.25 417 Sep-92 2.51 477
Oct-82 10.38 358 Oct-87 8.42 418 Oct-92 2.85 478
Nov-82 12.66 359 Nov-87 12.26 419 Nov-92 3.39 479
Dec-82 14.87 360 Dec-87 14.19 420 Dec-92 4.16 480
Jan-83 20.35 361 Jan-88 16.30 421 Jan-93 8.37 481
Feb-83 17.58 362 Feb-88 17.58 422 Feb-93 15.04 482
Mar-83 19.73 363 Mar-88 13.41 423 Mar-93 13.32 483
Apr-83 17.05 364 Apr-88 11.21 424 Apr-93 13.66 484
May-83 12.87 365 May-88 5.98 425 May-93 7.33 485
Jun-83 7.19 366 Jun-88 3.93 426 Jun-93 3.73 486
1983 1988 1993
Jul-83 7.05 367 Jul-88 3.32 427 Jul-93 3.30 487
Aug-83 6.27 368 Aug-88 3.79 428 Aug-93 3.37 488
Sep-83 7.16 369 Sep-88 5.03 429 Sep-93 3.97 489
Oct-83 12.23 370 Oct-88 6.90 430 Oct-93 5.81 490
Nov-83 10.36 371 Nov-88 8.96 431 Nov-93 8.47 491
Dec-83 9.49 372 Dec-88 6.43 432 Dec-93 18.84 492
Jan-84 9.72 373 Jan-89 9.88 433 Jan-94 14.64 493
Feb-84 15.80 374 Feb-89 13.80 434 Feb-94 14.46 494
Mar-84 20.61 375 Mar-89 14.74 435 Mar-94 12.21 495
Apr-84 14.10 376 Apr-89 15.01 436 Apr-94 12.33 496
May-84 6.88 377 May-89 5.41 437 May-94 9.37 497
Jun-84 4.25 378 Jun-89 3.03 438 Jun-94 4.41 498
1984 1989 1994
Jul-84 4.27 379 Jul-89 2.38 439 Jul-94 3.48 499
Aug-84 4.65 380 Aug-89 2.68 440 Aug-94 4.06 500
Sep-84 4.99 381 Sep-89 3.39 441 Sep-94 5.16 501
Oct-84 7.08 382 Oct-89 6.27 442 Oct-94 6.02 502
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1984 1989 1994
Nov-84 6.31 383 Nov-89 7.48 443 Nov-94 9.45 503

Dec-84 11.31 384 Dec-89 9.18 444 Dec-94 16.38 504
Jan-95 12.36 505

Feb-95 11.99 506
Mar-95 10.36 507
Apr-95 7.92 508
May-95 5.20 509
Jun-95 4.62 510
1995
Jul-95 5.14 511
Aug-95 5.21 512
Sep-95 5.34 513
Oct-95 7.50 514
Nov-95 8.93 515
Dec-95 7.87 516
Jan-96 11.14 517
Feb-96 16.66 518
Mar-96 7.20 519
Apr-96 14.91 520
May-96 7.67 521
Jun-96 5.92 522
1996
Jul-96 5.47 523
Aug-96 4.79 524
Sep-96 4.79 525
Oct-96 8.01 526
Nov-96 9.76 527
Dec-96 10.91 528
Jan-97 10.76 529
Feb-97 9.01 530
Mar-97 12.22 531
Apr-97 6.16 532
May-97 6.00 533
Jun-97 8.29 534
1997
Jul-97 4.24 535
Aug-97 4.39 536
Sep-97 6.32 537
Oct-97 7.08 538
Nov-97 16.69 539
Dec-97 46.67 540
Jan-98 44.33 541
Feb-98 59.95 542
Mar-98 52.89 543
Apr-98 35.78 544
May-98 16.36 545
Jun-98 7.19 546
1998
Jul-98 6.16 547
Aug-98 7.56 548
Sep-98 13.69 549
Oct-98 10.81 550
Nov-98 13.33 551
Dec-98 11.52 552
Jan-99 14.29 553
Feb-99 48.58 554
1999
Mar-99 29.63 555
Apr-99 8.27 556
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
MES DE ENERO
180
PRECIPITACIÓN CHANCOS
160
140 f(x) = 27.9733257158 exp( 0.0077830536 x )

R² = 0.2567550489
120 f(x) = 0.4603208303x + 29.4713715422

R² = 0.2770065017
f(x) = - 0.0019428631x^2 + 0.8816457062x + 11.1818987802
100 f(x)= =0.2941859158
R² 34.3503440783 ln(x) - 77.4141338094
f(x)
R² = =0.2577675572
4.7868032071 x^0.5714268269
R² = 0.2312797276
80
60
40
20
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
PRECIPITACIÓN HUARAZ
MES DE NOVIEMBRE
160
f(x) = 10.5736888096 exp( 0.0171245018 x )
R² = 0.4841356744
PRECIPITACIÓN CHANCOS
140
120 f(x) = 0.5287580144 x^1.0530585525

R² = 0.6562455705
f(x) = 0.5834977401x + 8.8505398282
R² = 0.5442327042
100
f(x) = - 0.0018415059x^2 + 0.8783092622x + 0.9263068719
R² = 0.5568298391
80 f(x) = 30.166360654 ln(x) - 71.1433877532

R² = 0.521413497
60
40
20
33; 12.2
0
0 20 40 60 80PRECIPITACIÓN
100 LLANGANUCO
120 140 160 180 200
PRECIPITACIÓN DE CHANCOS
MES DE DICIEMBRE
160
140
120
100
80
13.357386972 exp(
f(x) = 0.2868000853x 0.0090503837 x )
+ 22.8463373162
f(x) 31.7024106517x^1.081863885
R² = =0.0888716224
0.2477072376
0.1103493599 ln(x) - 91.8551988959
R² 0.1113803085
f(x)= =0.1617336439
- 0.0027357621x^2 + 0.9084925303x - 7.4622080582
60 R² = 0.1041615809
40
20
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
PRECIPITACIÓN PARÓN
PRECIPITACION (mm)
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
19360
19633
19906
20180
20455
20729
21002
21276
21551
21824
Divisón
22098
Linea de
22372
22647
22920
23193
23468
23743
24016
24289
24563
24838
25112
25385
25659
25934
AÑOS, MESES
26207
26481
26755
PRECIPITACION MENSUAL
27030
27303
27576
27851
28126
28399
28672
28946
29221
29495
29768
30042
30317
30590
30864
31138
CAUDALm3/s)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Jan-53
Jan-55
Jan-57
Jan-59
Jan-61
Jan-63
Jan-65
Jan-67
Jan-69
Jan-71
Jan-73
Jan-75
Jan-77
AÑOS, MESES
CAUDALE MENSUAL
Jan-79
Jan-81
Jan-83
Divisón
Jan-85
Linea de
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Facultad de Ingenieria Civil Hidrologia
4.1 MÉTODO ESTADÍSTICO
DATOS HIDROMETRICOS DE LA ESTACIÓN DE CHANCOS - COMPLETADOS (m3/s)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1953 120.3 145.0 122.8 96.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.7 42.5 32.2 585.60
1954 145.5 24.3 79.0 0.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 7.3 60.8 49.2 18.3 389.60
1955 163.4 133.5 48.6 45.6 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 24.9 13.3 9.1 455.40
1956 21.3 113.6 191.4 43.1 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.2 3.4 3.0 7.3 406.80
1957 24.3 185.0 192.0 55.9 9.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4 57.7 33.4 603.60
1958 11.7 70.5 333.3 98.4 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 44.3 6.1 9.1 586.80
1959 43.7 107.0 46.2 161.0 76.5 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.1 74.0 85.0 637.10
1960 79.0 164.0 115.4 94.2 24.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 14.6 19.4 21.3 537.10
1961 17.6 19.4 158.0 151.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.1 121.5 511.50
1962 94.2 189.6 60.3 22.5 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 46.2 10.3 438.30
1963 105.1 91.7 175.3 107.5 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.9 77.7 106.3 714.00
1964 47.4 97.2 72.9 96.0 34.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 17.0 6.7 3.0 383.40
1965 40.7 40.1 120.3 57.7 37.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.2 26.1 49.3 49.2 469.70
1966 91.7 35.0 93.0 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 63.8 40.7 66.8 417.10
1967 41.3 151.9 208.9 17.0 12.8 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 99.0 1.8 3.0 541.20
1968 69.3 11.6 83.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 7.9 60.7 7.9 41.3 294.60
1969 24.9 72.9 89.3 78.4 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.6 43.7 142.1 488.40
1970 80.8 43.7 96.0 38.9 35.8 11.5 2.4 13.4 47.4 34.7 41.5 69.9 516.00
1971 22.5 94.8 216.9 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 33.4 45.0 28.6 482.40
1972 158.6 110.0 179.2 77.2 16.4 0.0 0.0 9.7 11.6 0.0 52.2 68.0 682.90
1973 79.0 49.2 142.2 72.9 20.7 0.0 5.5 1.2 19.5 62.0 67.5 93.6 613.30
1974 110.0 100.9 75.9 31.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 5.5 17.9 7.9 354.60
1975 154.9 121.5 209.6 94.2 13.4 0.0 0.0 12.8 22.5 26.8 45.5 42.5 743.70
1976 95.4 120.3 68.1 105.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8 6.1 410.50
1977 62.0 201.7 89.3 35.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 57.1 75.4 531.00
1978 101.4 137.3 10.9 33.4 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.2 29.2 18.8 27.9 405.70
1979 66.2 54.7 135.5 129.4 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.0 24.3 3.2 42.5 31.8 517.40
1980 49.3 24.3 108.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.2 87.5 68.7 446.10
1981 54.0 190.1 170.7 41.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 58.3 129.5 10.3 662.10
1982 75.9 22.5 55.3 73.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 128.2 147.1 86.8 592.40
1983 122.1 59.8 150.0 162.9 110.1 19.4 0.0 0.0 6.1 27.3 8.3 117.9 783.90
1984 77.3 71.0 245.1 71.5 30.4 0.0 0.0 9.0 7.4 69.9 32.8 68.1 682.50
1985 10.3 82.1 99.0 13.4 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.5 0.0 12.2 71.1 370.80
A.- CONSISTENCIA A LA MEDIA
Cálculo de la media y la desviación estandar para cada periodo:
Periodo dudoso: 1953 -1958 (Periodo 1)

Periodo confiable: 1958 - 1985 (Periodo 2)
n1 = 72.0 meses
n2 = 324.0 meses
N = 396 meses
Periodo 1
√√
nn1 1 n1 n1
11 11 2 2
= ∑
X̄ 11= ∑XXi i S 11((xx)=
)=
nn−1
∑∑( X( iX−i −
−1
X̄ 1X̄
) 1)
nn11i =1
i =1 11 i=1
i=1
√√
nn1 1 n1 n1
11 11 2 2
= ∑
X̄ 11= ∑XXi i S 11((xx)=
)=
nn
∑ ∑ ( X( iX X̄ 1X̄
−i − ) 1)
nn11i =1
i =1 1 −1
1 −1
i=1
i=1
Reemplazando valores:
Media 1 = 42.1
Desv. Est. 1 = 63.047
Periodo 2
√√
nn2 2 n2 n2
11 11
= ∑
X̄ 22= ∑XXi i
nn22i =1
S 22((xx)=
)=
nn2 −1
∑ ∑ ( X( iX X̄ 2X̄
−i − )
2 2
2)
i =1 2 −1
i=1
i=1
Media 2 = 43.9
Desv. Est. 2 = 51.371
Donde:
Media del periodo 1 y 2

X̄
X̄11,,X̄X̄2 2
S 11(( xx)),,SS22( (xx) ) Desviación estandar del periodo 1 y 2
Xi Información de análisis
n1, n22 Tamaño de cada periodo (Meses)
N Tamaño de la muestra
Cálculo de la desviación estandar ponderada Sp
√ ) S21 +
2
((nn11−1
−1) S 1+( n(2n−1 ) S)22S22
2 −1
S pp=
=
nn1 +n
1 +n
2 −2
2 −2
Calculando tenemos: Sp = 53.663
Cálculo de la desviación estandar de la diferencia de promedios Sd
S dd=S
=Spp
√√ 11 11
++
nn1 1 nn
22
Calculando tenemos: Sd = 6.9917
Cálculo de tc
((X̄X̄11−
−X̄X̄2 )2−
)−( μ( 1μ− μ 2μ) 2 ) Pero: μ11=μ
= μ22 (por hipótesis las medias son iguales)
1−
t cc =
=
SS
dd
((X̄X̄11−
−X̄X̄2 )2−
)−( μ( 1μ−
1−μ 2μ) 2 ) μ11=μ
= μ22
t cc =
=
SS
dd
Entonces:
Por lo tanto: tc = -0.266

(( X̄X̄11−
−X̄X̄22) )
t cc =
=
SSdd
Cálculo det tt
En las tablas con 95% de probabilidad, o con un nivel de significancia de 5%, es decir:
a/2 = 0.025
V=N-2 = 394
Tenemos en la Tabla que: tt = 1.96
Decisión
tc = 0.266
tt = 1.96
Como: ltcl ≤ tt ………………OK! (ACEPTO)
Entonces: X̄ 11=
=X̄X̄22
Las medias son estadisticamente iguales, no se realizan correciones. No es necesario
realizar el análisis de consistencia a la desviación estandar
4.2 ANÁLISIS DE TENDENCIA
1 . TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + B m t Ecuación Lineal Simple
AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) ENERO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 120.30 120.3 1 120.3 1 14472.1
1954 2 145.50 145.5 2 291.0 4 21170.3
1955 3 163.40 163.4 3 490.2 9 26699.6
1956 4 21.30 21.3 4 85.2 16 453.7
1957 5 24.30 24.3 5 121.5 25 590.5
1958 6 11.70 11.7 6 70.2 36 136.9
1959 7 43.70 43.7 7 305.9 49 1909.7
1960 8 79.00 79.0 8 632.0 64 6241.0
1961 9 17.60 17.6 9 158.4 81 309.8
1962 10 94.20 94.2 10 942.0 100 8873.6
1963 11 105.10 105.1 11 1156.1 121 11046.0
1964 12 47.40 47.4 12 568.8 144 2246.8
1965 13 40.70 40.7 13 529.1 169 1656.5
1966 14 91.70 91.7 14 1283.8 196 8408.9
1967 15 41.30 41.3 15 619.5 225 1705.7
1968 16 69.30 69.3 16 1108.8 256 4802.5
1969 17 24.90 24.9 17 423.3 289 620.0
1970 18 80.80 80.8 18 1454.4 324 6528.6
1971 19 22.50 22.5 19 427.5 361 506.3
1972 20 158.60 158.6 20 3172.0 400 25154.0
1973 21 79.00 79.0 21 1659.0 441 6241.0
1974 22 110.00 110.0 22 2420.0 484 12100.0
1975 23 154.90 154.9 23 3562.7 529 23994.0
1976 24 95.40 95.4 24 2289.6 576 9101.2
1977 25 62.00 62.0 25 1550.0 625 3844.0
1978 26 101.40 101.4 26 2636.4 676 10282.0
1979 27 66.20 66.2 27 1787.4 729 4382.4
1980 28 49.30 49.3 28 1380.4 784 2430.5
1981 29 54.00 54.0 29 1566.0 841 2916.0
1982 30 75.90 75.9 30 2277.0 900 5760.8
1983 31 122.10 122.1 31 3785.1 961 14908.4
1984 32 77.30 77.3 32 2473.6 1024 5975.3
1985 33 10.30 10.3 33 339.9 1089 106.1
sumatoria 2461.1 561 41687.1 12529 245573.9
Número de pares de datos: N= 33
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 yy
xx  xyxy 22
xx
xx  
nn  xx 
22 22
Am 
 yy
 xx  xy
xy xx22
xx  
nn  xx  22 22
Reemplazando valores: Am = 75.4
Cálculo de "Bm":
nn∑∑xy−
xy− ∑∑x ∑ x∑ y y
Bm=
Bm= 2 2
nn∑
∑x 2x−2 −
(∑( ∑x ) x )
Reemplazando valores: Bm = -0.051
Entonces la ecuación será:
y = 75.4-0.051 x
Es decir:
T =75.4-0.051 t
Cálculo del coeficiente de correlacion (r) y determinación (r2):
r=
r=
∑∑xyxy
nn −∑−∑
x∑x∑
y y
√√((nn∑∑xx−−(∑(∑x )x)() n)(∑n ∑y −y( ∑

22 2 2
y ) )y ) )
−( ∑
2 2 2 2
Reemplazando valores: r = -0.011

r2 = 0.0001
Parametros de Significancia: Prueba "t"
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":
= √√ 2 2
rr n−2
n− 2
t cc=
Cálculo de tt:
√√1−r
1− r Reemplazando valores: tc = -0.062
En las tablas con un nivel de significancia de 5%, es decir:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31

Decisión:
tc = -0.062
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:
No se presenta tendencia a la media, no es necesario realizar el análisis

de tendencia a la desviación estandar, Es decir no hay necesidad de corregir.
AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) FEBRERO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 145.00 145.0 1 145.0 1 21025.0
1954 2 24.30 24.3 2 48.6 4 590.5
1955 3 133.50 133.5 3 400.5 9 17822.3
1956 4 113.60 113.6 4 454.4 16 12905.0
1957 5 185.00 185.0 5 925.0 25 34225.0
1958 6 70.50 70.5 6 423.0 36 4970.3
1959 7 107.00 107.0 7 749.0 49 11449.0
1960 8 164.00 164.0 8 1312.0 64 26896.0
1961 9 19.40 19.4 9 174.6 81 376.4
1962 10 189.60 189.6 10 1896.0 100 35948.2
1963 11 91.70 91.7 11 1008.7 121 8408.9
1964 12 97.20 97.2 12 1166.4 144 9447.8
1965 13 40.10 40.1 13 521.3 169 1608.0
1966 14 35.00 35.0 14 490.0 196 1225.0
1967 15 151.90 151.9 15 2278.5 225 23073.6
1968 16 11.60 11.6 16 185.6 256 134.6
1969 17 72.90 72.9 17 1239.3 289 5314.4
1970 18 43.70 43.7 18 786.6 324 1909.7
1971 19 94.80 94.8 19 1801.2 361 8987.0
1972 20 110.00 110.0 20 2200.0 400 12100.0
1973 21 49.20 49.2 21 1033.2 441 2420.6
1974 22 100.90 100.9 22 2219.8 484 10180.8
1975 23 121.50 121.5 23 2794.5 529 14762.3
1976 24 120.30 120.3 24 2887.2 576 14472.1
1977 25 201.70 201.7 25 5042.5 625 40682.9
1978 26 137.30 137.3 26 3569.8 676 18851.3
1979 27 54.70 54.7 27 1476.9 729 2992.1
1980 28 24.30 24.3 28 680.4 784 590.5
1981 29 190.10 190.1 29 5512.9 841 36138.0
1982 30 22.50 22.5 30 675.0 900 506.3
1983 31 59.80 59.8 31 1853.8 961 3576.0
1984 32 71.00 71.0 32 2272.0 1024 5041.0
1985 33 82.10 82.1 33 2709.3 1089 6740.4
sumatoria 3136.2 561 50933.0 12529 395370.8
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 108.6-0.796 x
Es decir:
T =108.6-0.796t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0195
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
√1− r 2 Reemplazando valores: tc = -0.785
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = -0.785
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) MARZO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 122.80 122.8 1 122.8 1 15079.8
1954 2 79.00 79.0 2 158.0 4 6241.0
1955 3 48.60 48.6 3 145.8 9 2362.0
1956 4 191.40 191.4 4 765.6 16 36634.0
1957 5 192.00 192.0 5 960.0 25 36864.0
1958 6 333.30 333.3 6 1999.8 36 111088.9
1959 7 46.20 46.2 7 323.4 49 2134.4
1960 8 115.40 115.4 8 923.2 64 13317.2
1961 9 158.00 158.0 9 1422.0 81 24964.0
1962 10 60.30 60.3 10 603.0 100 3636.1
1963 11 175.30 175.3 11 1928.3 121 30730.1
1964 12 72.90 72.9 12 874.8 144 5314.4
1965 13 120.30 120.3 13 1563.9 169 14472.1
1966 14 93.00 93.0 14 1302.0 196 8649.0
1967 15 208.90 208.9 15 3133.5 225 43639.2
1968 16 83.20 83.2 16 1331.2 256 6922.2
1969 17 89.30 89.3 17 1518.1 289 7974.5
1970 18 96.00 96.0 18 1728.0 324 9216.0
1971 19 216.90 216.9 19 4121.1 361 47045.6
1972 20 179.20 179.2 20 3584.0 400 32112.6
1973 21 142.20 142.2 21 2986.2 441 20220.8
1974 22 75.90 75.9 22 1669.8 484 5760.8
1975 23 209.60 209.6 23 4820.8 529 43932.2
1976 24 68.10 68.1 24 1634.4 576 4637.6
1977 25 89.30 89.3 25 2232.5 625 7974.5
1978 26 10.90 10.9 26 283.4 676 118.8
1979 27 135.50 135.5 27 3658.5 729 18360.3
1980 28 108.10 108.1 28 3026.8 784 11685.6
1981 29 170.70 170.7 29 4950.3 841 29138.5
1982 30 55.30 55.3 30 1659.0 900 3058.1
1983 31 150.00 150.0 31 4650.0 961 22500.0
1984 32 245.10 245.1 32 7843.2 1024 60074.0
1985 33 99.00 99.0 33 3267.0 1089 9801.0

sumatoria 4241.7 561 71190.4 12529 695659.3
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 133.8-0.307 x
Es decir:
T =133.8-0.307 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0019
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
√1−r 2 Reemplazando valores: tc = -0.241
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = -0.241
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) ABRIL y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 96.10 96.1 1 96.1 1 9235.2
1954 2 0.30 0.3 2 0.6 4 0.1
1955 3 45.60 45.6 3 136.8 9 2079.4
1956 4 43.10 43.1 4 172.4 16 1857.6
1957 5 55.90 55.9 5 279.5 25 3124.8
1958 6 98.40 98.4 6 590.4 36 9682.6
1959 7 161.00 161.0 7 1127.0 49 25921.0
1960 8 94.20 94.2 8 753.6 64 8873.6
1961 9 151.90 151.9 9 1367.1 81 23073.6
1962 10 22.50 22.5 10 225.0 100 506.3
1963 11 107.50 107.5 11 1182.5 121 11556.3
1964 12 96.00 96.0 12 1152.0 144 9216.0
1965 13 57.70 57.7 13 750.1 169 3329.3
1966 14 18.20 18.2 14 254.8 196 331.2
1967 15 17.00 17.0 15 255.0 225 289.0
1968 16 3.00 3.0 16 48.0 256 9.0
1969 17 78.40 78.4 17 1332.8 289 6146.6
1970 18 38.90 38.9 18 700.2 324 1513.2
1971 19 27.30 27.3 19 518.7 361 745.3
1972 20 77.20 77.2 20 1544.0 400 5959.8
1973 21 72.90 72.9 21 1530.9 441 5314.4
1974 22 31.60 31.6 22 695.2 484 998.6
1975 23 94.20 94.2 23 2166.6 529 8873.6
1976 24 105.80 105.8 24 2539.2 576 11193.6
1977 25 35.20 35.2 25 880.0 625 1239.0
1978 26 33.40 33.4 26 868.4 676 1115.6
1979 27 129.40 129.4 27 3493.8 729 16744.4
1980 28 0.00 0.0 28 0.0 784 0.0
1981 29 41.90 41.9 29 1215.1 841 1755.6
1982 30 73.00 73.0 30 2190.0 900 5329.0
1983 31 162.90 162.9 31 5049.9 961 26536.4

1984 32 71.50 71.5 32 2288.0 1024 5112.3
1985 33 13.40 13.4 33 442.2 1089 179.6
sumatoria 2155.4 561 35845.9 12529 207841.9
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 69.8-0.266 x
Es decir:
T =69.8-0.266 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0032
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
t c=
√1−r 2
r √ n−2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
√1−r 2 Reemplazando valores: tc = -0.313
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = -0.313
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) MAYO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 0.00 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0
1954 2 0.00 0.0 2 0.0 4 0.0
1955 3 10.30 10.3 3 30.9 9 106.1
1956 4 5.50 5.5 4 22.0 16 30.3
1957 5 9.10 9.1 5 45.5 25 82.8
1958 6 4.90 4.9 6 29.4 36 24.0
1959 7 76.50 76.5 7 535.5 49 5852.3
1960 8 24.30 24.3 8 194.4 64 590.5
1961 9 0.00 0.0 9 0.0 81 0.0
1962 10 6.70 6.7 10 67.0 100 44.9
1963 11 22.50 22.5 11 247.5 121 506.3
1964 12 34.10 34.1 12 409.2 144 1162.8
1965 13 37.10 37.1 13 482.3 169 1376.4
1966 14 0.00 0.0 14 0.0 196 0.0
1967 15 12.80 12.8 15 192.0 225 163.8
1968 16 0.00 0.0 16 0.0 256 0.0
1969 17 8.50 8.5 17 144.5 289 72.3
1970 18 35.80 35.8 18 644.4 324 1281.6
1971 19 0.00 0.0 19 0.0 361 0.0
1972 20 16.40 16.4 20 328.0 400 269.0
1973 21 20.70 20.7 21 434.7 441 428.5
1974 22 0.00 0.0 22 0.0 484 0.0
1975 23 13.40 13.4 23 308.2 529 179.6
1976 24 0.00 0.0 24 0.0 576 0.0
1977 25 6.70 6.7 25 167.5 625 44.9
1978 26 14.60 14.6 26 379.6 676 213.2
1979 27 15.80 15.8 27 426.6 729 249.6

1980 28 0.00 0.0 28 0.0 784 0.0
1981 29 0.00 0.0 29 0.0 841 0.0
1982 30 3.60 3.6 30 108.0 900 13.0
1983 31 110.10 110.1 31 3413.1 961 12122.0
1984 32 30.40 30.4 32 972.8 1024 924.2
1985 33 15.20 15.2 33 501.6 1089 231.0
sumatoria 535 561 10084.7 12529 25968.9
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Reemplazando valores: Bm = 0.331
y = 10.6+0.331 x
Es decir:
T =10.6+0.331 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2
Reemplazando valores: r = 0.138

r2 = 0.0189
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n−2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
√1−r 2 Reemplazando valores: tc = 0.773
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 0.773
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) JUNIO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 0.00 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0
1954 2 4.90 4.9 2 9.8 4 24.0
1955 3 0.00 0.0 3 0.0 9 0.0
1956 4 0.00 0.0 4 0.0 16 0.0
1957 5 1.80 1.8 5 9.0 25 3.2
1958 6 0.00 0.0 6 0.0 36 0.0
1959 7 3.60 3.6 7 25.2 49 13.0
1960 8 0.00 0.0 8 0.0 64 0.0
1961 9 0.00 0.0 9 0.0 81 0.0
1962 10 0.00 0.0 10 0.0 100 0.0
1963 11 0.00 0.0 11 0.0 121 0.0
1964 12 0.00 0.0 12 0.0 144 0.0
1965 13 0.00 0.0 13 0.0 169 0.0
1966 14 0.00 0.0 14 0.0 196 0.0
1967 15 0.00 0.0 15 0.0 225 0.0
1968 16 0.00 0.0 16 0.0 256 0.0
1969 17 0.00 0.0 17 0.0 289 0.0
1970 18 11.50 11.5 18 207.0 324 132.3
1971 19 0.00 0.0 19 0.0 361 0.0
1972 20 0.00 0.0 20 0.0 400 0.0
1973 21 0.00 0.0 21 0.0 441 0.0
1974 22 0.00 0.0 22 0.0 484 0.0
1975 23 0.00 0.0 23 0.0 529 0.0

1976 24 0.00 0.0 24 0.0 576 0.0
1977 25 0.00 0.0 25 0.0 625 0.0
1978 26 0.00 0.0 26 0.0 676 0.0
1979 27 0.00 0.0 27 0.0 729 0.0
1980 28 0.00 0.0 28 0.0 784 0.0
1981 29 0.00 0.0 29 0.0 841 0.0
1982 30 0.00 0.0 30 0.0 900 0.0
1983 31 19.40 19.4 31 601.4 961 376.4
1984 32 0.00 0.0 32 0.0 1024 0.0
1985 33 0.00 0.0 33 0.0 1089 0.0
sumatoria 41.2 561 852.4 12529 548.8
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 0.38+0.051 x
Es decir:
T =0.38+0.051 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0155
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 0.699
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) JULIO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 0.00 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0
1954 2 0.00 0.0 2 0.0 4 0.0
1955 3 0.00 0.0 3 0.0 9 0.0
1956 4 0.00 0.0 4 0.0 16 0.0
1957 5 0.00 0.0 5 0.0 25 0.0
1958 6 0.00 0.0 6 0.0 36 0.0
1959 7 0.00 0.0 7 0.0 49 0.0
1960 8 0.00 0.0 8 0.0 64 0.0
1961 9 0.00 0.0 9 0.0 81 0.0
1962 10 0.00 0.0 10 0.0 100 0.0
1963 11 0.00 0.0 11 0.0 121 0.0
1964 12 0.00 0.0 12 0.0 144 0.0
1965 13 0.00 0.0 13 0.0 169 0.0
1966 14 0.00 0.0 14 0.0 196 0.0
1967 15 5.50 5.5 15 82.5 225 30.3
1968 16 0.00 0.0 16 0.0 256 0.0
1969 17 0.00 0.0 17 0.0 289 0.0
1970 18 2.40 2.4 18 43.2 324 5.8
1971 19 0.00 0.0 19 0.0 361 0.0

1972 20 0.00 0.0 20 0.0 400 0.0
1973 21 5.50 5.5 21 115.5 441 30.3
1974 22 0.00 0.0 22 0.0 484 0.0
1975 23 0.00 0.0 23 0.0 529 0.0
1976 24 0.00 0.0 24 0.0 576 0.0
1977 25 0.00 0.0 25 0.0 625 0.0
1978 26 0.00 0.0 26 0.0 676 0.0
1979 27 0.00 0.0 27 0.0 729 0.0
1980 28 0.00 0.0 28 0.0 784 0.0
1981 29 0.00 0.0 29 0.0 841 0.0
1982 30 0.00 0.0 30 0.0 900 0.0
1983 31 0.00 0.0 31 0.0 961 0.0
1984 32 0.00 0.0 32 0.0 1024 0.0
1985 33 0.00 0.0 33 0.0 1089 0.0
sumatoria 13.4 561 241.2 12529 66.3
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 0.33+0.004 x
Es decir:
T =75.4-0.051 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0010
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 0.175
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

8 TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + B m t Ecuación Lineal Simple
AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) AGOSTO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 0.00 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0
1954 2 0.00 0.0 2 0.0 4 0.0
1955 3 0.00 0.0 3 0.0 9 0.0
1956 4 0.00 0.0 4 0.0 16 0.0
1957 5 0.00 0.0 5 0.0 25 0.0
1958 6 0.00 0.0 6 0.0 36 0.0
1959 7 0.00 0.0 7 0.0 49 0.0
1960 8 0.00 0.0 8 0.0 64 0.0
1961 9 0.00 0.0 9 0.0 81 0.0
1962 10 0.00 0.0 10 0.0 100 0.0
1963 11 0.00 0.0 11 0.0 121 0.0
1964 12 9.10 9.1 12 109.2 144 82.8
1965 13 0.00 0.0 13 0.0 169 0.0
1966 14 0.00 0.0 14 0.0 196 0.0
1967 15 0.00 0.0 15 0.0 225 0.0
1968 16 9.70 9.7 16 155.2 256 94.1
1969 17 0.00 0.0 17 0.0 289 0.0
1970 18 13.40 13.4 18 241.2 324 179.6
1971 19 0.00 0.0 19 0.0 361 0.0
1972 20 9.70 9.7 20 194.0 400 94.1

1973 21 1.20 1.2 21 25.2 441 1.4
1974 22 0.00 0.0 22 0.0 484 0.0
1975 23 12.80 12.8 23 294.4 529 163.8
1976 24 0.00 0.0 24 0.0 576 0.0
1977 25 0.00 0.0 25 0.0 625 0.0
1978 26 0.00 0.0 26 0.0 676 0.0
1979 27 14.00 14.0 27 378.0 729 196.0
1980 28 0.00 0.0 28 0.0 784 0.0
1981 29 0.00 0.0 29 0.0 841 0.0
1982 30 0.00 0.0 30 0.0 900 0.0
1983 31 0.00 0.0 31 0.0 961 0.0
1984 32 9.00 9.0 32 288.0 1024 81.0
1985 33 0.00 0.0 33 0.0 1089 0.0
sumatoria 78.9 561 1685.2 12529 892.8
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 0.4+0.115 x
Es decir:
T =0.4+0.115 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0561

Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 1.358
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) SEPTIEMBRE y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 0.00 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0
1954 2 7.30 7.3 2 14.6 4 53.3
1955 3 6.70 6.7 3 20.1 9 44.9
1956 4 18.20 18.2 4 72.8 16 331.2
1957 5 0.00 0.0 5 0.0 25 0.0
1958 6 8.50 8.5 6 51.0 36 72.3
1959 7 0.00 0.0 7 0.0 49 0.0
1960 8 4.90 4.9 8 39.2 64 24.0
1961 9 0.00 0.0 9 0.0 81 0.0
1962 10 0.00 0.0 10 0.0 100 0.0
1963 11 0.00 0.0 11 0.0 121 0.0
1964 12 0.00 0.0 12 0.0 144 0.0
1965 13 49.20 49.2 13 639.6 169 2420.6
1966 14 7.90 7.9 14 110.6 196 62.4
1967 15 0.00 0.0 15 0.0 225 0.0
1968 16 7.90 7.9 16 126.4 256 62.4

1969 17 0.00 0.0 17 0.0 289 0.0
1970 18 47.40 47.4 18 853.2 324 2246.8
1971 19 13.90 13.9 19 264.1 361 193.2
1972 20 11.60 11.6 20 232.0 400 134.6
1973 21 19.50 19.5 21 409.5 441 380.3
1974 22 4.90 4.9 22 107.8 484 24.0
1975 23 22.50 22.5 23 517.5 529 506.3
1976 24 0.00 0.0 24 0.0 576 0.0
1977 25 0.00 0.0 25 0.0 625 0.0
1978 26 32.20 32.2 26 837.2 676 1036.8
1979 27 24.30 24.3 27 656.1 729 590.5
1980 28 0.00 0.0 28 0.0 784 0.0
1981 29 7.30 7.3 29 211.7 841 53.3
1982 30 0.00 0.0 30 0.0 900 0.0
1983 31 6.10 6.1 31 189.1 961 37.2
1984 32 7.40 7.4 32 236.8 1024 54.8
1985 33 67.50 67.5 33 2227.5 1089 4556.3
sumatoria 375.2 561 7816.8 12529 12885.0
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 3.2 +0.481x
Es decir:
T = 3.2 +0.481t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0802
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 1.644
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) OCTUBRE y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 26.70 26.7 1 26.7 1 712.9
1954 2 60.80 60.8 2 121.6 4 3696.6
1955 3 24.90 24.9 3 74.7 9 620.0
1956 4 3.40 3.4 4 13.6 16 11.6
1957 5 44.40 44.4 5 222.0 25 1971.4
1958 6 44.30 44.3 6 265.8 36 1962.5
1959 7 40.10 40.1 7 280.7 49 1608.0
1960 8 14.60 14.6 8 116.8 64 213.2
1961 9 0.00 0.0 9 0.0 81 0.0
1962 10 8.50 8.5 10 85.0 100 72.3
1963 11 27.90 27.9 11 306.9 121 778.4
1964 12 17.00 17.0 12 204.0 144 289.0
1965 13 26.10 26.1 13 339.3 169 681.2

1966 14 63.80 63.8 14 893.2 196 4070.4
1967 15 99.00 99.0 15 1485.0 225 9801.0
1968 16 60.70 60.7 16 971.2 256 3684.5
1969 17 28.60 28.6 17 486.2 289 818.0
1970 18 34.70 34.7 18 624.6 324 1204.1
1971 19 33.40 33.4 19 634.6 361 1115.6
1972 20 0.00 0.0 20 0.0 400 0.0
1973 21 62.00 62.0 21 1302.0 441 3844.0
1974 22 5.50 5.5 22 121.0 484 30.3
1975 23 26.80 26.8 23 616.4 529 718.2
1976 24 0.00 0.0 24 0.0 576 0.0
1977 25 3.60 3.6 25 90.0 625 13.0
1978 26 29.20 29.2 26 759.2 676 852.6
1979 27 3.20 3.2 27 86.4 729 10.2
1980 28 108.20 108.2 28 3029.6 784 11707.2
1981 29 58.30 58.3 29 1690.7 841 3398.9
1982 30 128.20 128.2 30 3846.0 900 16435.2
1983 31 27.30 27.3 31 846.3 961 745.3
1984 32 69.90 69.9 32 2236.8 1024 4886.0
1985 33 0.00 0.0 33 0.0 1089 0.0
sumatoria 1181.1 561 21776.3 12529 75951.5
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 26.1+0.567 x
Es decir:
T =26.1+0.567 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0286
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 0.955
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) NOVIEMBRE y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 42.50 42.5 1 42.5 1 1806.3
1954 2 49.20 49.2 2 98.4 4 2420.6
1955 3 13.30 13.3 3 39.9 9 176.9
1956 4 3.00 3.0 4 12.0 16 9.0
1957 5 57.70 57.7 5 288.5 25 3329.3
1958 6 6.10 6.1 6 36.6 36 37.2
1959 7 74.00 74.0 7 518.0 49 5476.0
1960 8 19.40 19.4 8 155.2 64 376.4
1961 9 43.10 43.1 9 387.9 81 1857.6
1962 10 46.20 46.2 10 462.0 100 2134.4

1963 11 77.70 77.7 11 854.7 121 6037.3
1964 12 6.70 6.7 12 80.4 144 44.9
1965 13 49.30 49.3 13 640.9 169 2430.5
1966 14 40.70 40.7 14 569.8 196 1656.5
1967 15 1.80 1.8 15 27.0 225 3.2
1968 16 7.90 7.9 16 126.4 256 62.4
1969 17 43.70 43.7 17 742.9 289 1909.7
1970 18 41.50 41.5 18 747.0 324 1722.3
1971 19 45.00 45.0 19 855.0 361 2025.0
1972 20 52.20 52.2 20 1044.0 400 2724.8
1973 21 67.50 67.5 21 1417.5 441 4556.3
1974 22 17.90 17.9 22 393.8 484 320.4
1975 23 45.50 45.5 23 1046.5 529 2070.3
1976 24 14.80 14.8 24 355.2 576 219.0
1977 25 57.10 57.1 25 1427.5 625 3260.4
1978 26 18.80 18.8 26 488.8 676 353.4
1979 27 42.50 42.5 27 1147.5 729 1806.3
1980 28 87.50 87.5 28 2450.0 784 7656.3
1981 29 129.50 129.5 29 3755.5 841 16770.3
1982 30 147.10 147.1 30 4413.0 900 21638.4
1983 31 8.30 8.3 31 257.3 961 68.9
1984 32 32.80 32.8 32 1049.6 1024 1075.8
1985 33 12.20 12.2 33 402.6 1089 148.8
sumatoria 1402.5 561 26333.9 12529 96184.8
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 28.3+0.833 x
Es decir:
T =28.3+0.833 t

n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0567
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 1.365
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) DICIEMBRE y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 32.20 32.2 1 32.2 1 1036.8
1954 2 18.30 18.3 2 36.6 4 334.9
1955 3 9.10 9.1 3 27.3 9 82.8
1956 4 7.30 7.3 4 29.2 16 53.3
1957 5 33.40 33.4 5 167.0 25 1115.6
1958 6 9.10 9.1 6 54.6 36 82.8
1959 7 85.00 85.0 7 595.0 49 7225.0

1960 8 21.30 21.3 8 170.4 64 453.7
1961 9 121.50 121.5 9 1093.5 81 14762.3
1962 10 10.30 10.3 10 103.0 100 106.1
1963 11 106.30 106.3 11 1169.3 121 11299.7
1964 12 3.00 3.0 12 36.0 144 9.0
1965 13 49.20 49.2 13 639.6 169 2420.6
1966 14 66.80 66.8 14 935.2 196 4462.2
1967 15 3.00 3.0 15 45.0 225 9.0
1968 16 41.30 41.3 16 660.8 256 1705.7
1969 17 142.10 142.1 17 2415.7 289 20192.4
1970 18 69.90 69.9 18 1258.2 324 4886.0
1971 19 28.60 28.6 19 543.4 361 818.0
1972 20 68.00 68.0 20 1360.0 400 4624.0
1973 21 93.60 93.6 21 1965.6 441 8761.0
1974 22 7.90 7.9 22 173.8 484 62.4
1975 23 42.50 42.5 23 977.5 529 1806.3
1976 24 6.10 6.1 24 146.4 576 37.2
1977 25 75.40 75.4 25 1885.0 625 5685.2
1978 26 27.90 27.9 26 725.4 676 778.4
1979 27 31.80 31.8 27 858.6 729 1011.2
1980 28 68.70 68.7 28 1923.6 784 4719.7
1981 29 10.30 10.3 29 298.7 841 106.1
1982 30 86.80 86.8 30 2604.0 900 7534.2
1983 31 117.90 117.9 31 3654.9 961 13900.4
1984 32 68.10 68.1 32 2179.2 1024 4637.6
1985 33 71.10 71.1 33 2346.3 1089 5055.2
sumatoria 1633.8 561 31111.0 12529 129774.8
Cálculo de "Am":
Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
Cálculo de "Bm":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 30.6+1.115 x
Es decir:
T =30.6+1.115 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0761
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n− 2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 1.598
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

Am 
 y  x   xy x 2
n x    x  2 2
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
Bm= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2
r √ n− 2
t c=
√1−r 2
2.. TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + B m t Ecuación Lineal Simple 8..

1953 1 145.0 145.0 1 145.0 1 21025.0
1954 2 24.3 24.3 2 48.6 4 590.5
1955 3 133.5 133.5 3 400.5 9 17822.3
1956 4 113.6 113.6 4 454.4 16 12905.0
1957 5 185.0 185.0 5 925.0 25 34225.0
1958 6 70.5 70.5 6 423.0 36 4970.3
1959 7 107.0 107.0 7 749.0 49 11449.0
1960 8 164.0 164.0 8 1312.0 64 26896.0
1961 9 19.4 19.4 9 174.6 81 376.4
1962 10 189.6 189.6 10 1896.0 100 35948.2
1963 11 91.7 91.7 11 1008.7 121 8408.9
1964 12 97.2 97.2 12 1166.4 144 9447.8
1965 13 40.1 40.1 13 521.3 169 1608.0
1966 14 35.0 35.0 14 490.0 196 1225.0
1967 15 151.9 151.9 15 2278.5 225 23073.6
1968 16 11.6 11.6 16 185.6 256 134.6
1969 17 72.9 72.9 17 1239.3 289 5314.4
1970 18 43.7 43.7 18 786.6 324 1909.7
1971 19 94.8 94.8 19 1801.2 361 8987.0
1972 20 110.0 110.0 20 2200.0 400 12100.0
1973 21 49.2 49.2 21 1033.2 441 2420.6
1974 22 100.9 100.9 22 2219.8 484 10180.8
1975 23 121.5 121.5 23 2794.5 529 14762.3
1976 24 120.3 120.3 24 2887.2 576 14472.1
1977 25 201.7 201.7 25 5042.5 625 40682.9
1978 26 137.3 137.3 26 3569.8 676 18851.3
1979 27 54.7 54.7 27 1476.9 729 2992.1
1980 28 24.3 24.3 28 680.4 784 590.5
1981 29 190.1 190.1 29 5512.9 841 36138.0
1982 30 22.5 22.5 30 675.0 900 506.3
1983 31 59.8 59.8 31 1853.8 961 3576.0
1984 32 71.0 71.0 32 2272.0 1024 5041.0
1985 33 82.1 82.1 33 2709.3 1089 6740.4
sumatoria 3136.2 561 ### 12529 395370.8
Cálculo de "Am":
2 2
Am=
Am=
∑
∑ yy∑∑x x−− ∑∑ xy ∑
xy ∑x x
2 2
nn∑∑x 2x−2−
( ∑( ∑x) x)
Cálculo de "Bm":
nn∑∑xy−
xy−∑∑x ∑ x∑ y y
Bm=
Bm= 2 2
nn∑
∑xx2 −
2
(∑
− ( ∑x ) x )
nn∑∑xy−
xy−∑∑x ∑ x∑ y y
Bm=
Bm= 2 2
nn∑
∑xx2 −
2
(∑
− ( ∑x ) x )
y =108.6-0.796 x
Es decir:
T =108.96 - 0.796 t
r=
r=
∑∑xyxy
nn −∑−∑
x∑x∑
y y
√√((nn∑∑xx−−(∑(∑x )x)() n)(∑n ∑y −y( ∑

22 2 2
y ) )y ) )
−( ∑
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.019
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0;
Ha : r ¿ 0;
Cálculo del "tc":
= √√ 2 2
rr n−2
n− 2
t cc= Reemplazando valores: tc = -0.785
√√1−r
1− r
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = -0.785
tt = 2.043
Como: ltcl ≤ tt :
Entonces:

3.. TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + B m t Ecuación Lineal Simple 9..

1953 1 122.8 122.8 1 122.8 1 15079.8
1954 2 79.0 79.0 2 158.0 4 6241.0
1955 3 48.6 48.6 3 145.8 9 2362.0
1956 4 191.4 191.4 4 765.6 16 36634.0
1957 5 192.0 192.0 5 960.0 25 36864.0
1958 6 333.3 333.3 6 1999.8 36 111088.9
1959 7 46.2 46.2 7 323.4 49 2134.4
1960 8 115.4 115.4 8 923.2 64 13317.2
1961 9 158.0 158.0 9 1422.0 81 24964.0
1962 10 60.3 60.3 10 603.0 100 3636.1
1963 11 175.3 175.3 11 1928.3 121 30730.1
1964 12 72.9 72.9 12 874.8 144 5314.4
1965 13 120.3 120.3 13 1563.9 169 14472.1
1966 14 93.0 93.0 14 1302.0 196 8649.0
1967 15 208.9 208.9 15 3133.5 225 43639.2
1968 16 83.2 83.2 16 1331.2 256 6922.2
1969 17 89.3 89.3 17 1518.1 289 7974.5
1970 18 96.0 96.0 18 1728.0 324 9216.0
1971 19 216.9 216.9 19 4121.1 361 47045.6
1972 20 179.2 179.2 20 3584.0 400 32112.6
1973 21 142.2 142.2 21 2986.2 441 20220.8
1974 22 75.9 75.9 22 1669.8 484 5760.8
1975 23 209.6 209.6 23 4820.8 529 43932.2
1976 24 68.1 68.1 24 1634.4 576 4637.6
1977 25 89.3 89.3 25 2232.5 625 7974.5
1978 26 10.9 10.9 26 283.4 676 118.8
1979 27 135.5 135.5 27 3658.5 729 18360.3
1980 28 108.1 108.1 28 3026.8 784 11685.6
1981 29 170.7 170.7 29 4950.3 841 29138.5
1982 30 55.3 55.3 30 1659.0 900 3058.1
1983 31 150.0 150.0 31 4650.0 961 22500.0
1984 32 245.1 245.1 32 7843.2 1024 60074.0
1985 33 99.0 99.0 33 3267.0 1089 9801.0
1986 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Cálculo de "a":
a=
a=
∑ ∑x 2x−2 −∑∑xyxy
∑ yy∑ ∑∑ x x
2 2
nn∑
∑x 2x−2 −(∑(∑x ) x )
Reemplazando valores: Am = #REF!
Cálculo de "b":
nn∑
∑xyxy−−∑∑x x∑∑y y
b=
b= 22
nn∑
∑xx22−−(∑
(∑x x) )
Reemplazando valores: Bm = #REF!

y =12.5+0.093 x
Es decir:
T = 12.5+0.093 t
r=
r=
∑∑xyxy
nn −∑−∑
x∑x∑
y y
√√((nn∑∑xx−−(∑(∑x )x)() n)(∑n ∑y −y( ∑

22 2 2
y ) )y ) )
−( ∑ 2 2 2 2
Reemplazando valores: r = #REF!

r2 = #REF!
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0; ltcl ≤ tt Rechaza
Ha : r ¿ 0; ltcl > tt Acepta
Cálculo del "tc":
rr√√n−2
n− 2
t cc=
=
Cálculo de tt:
√√1−r
1− r2 2 Reemplazando valores: tc = 2.789
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 32
Decisión:
tc = 2.789
tt = 1.96
Entonces: Como: ltcl > tt Ha : r ¿0
Se presenta buena tendencia a la media, Es decir no hay necesidad de corregir.

4.. TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + B m t Ecuación Lineal Simple
AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) ABRIL y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2 Cálculo de t

1953 1 12.017 12.0 1 12.0 1 144.4
1954 2 7.6 7.6 2 15.2 4 57.8
1955 3 9.69 9.7 3 29.1 9 93.9
1956 4 10.62 10.6 4 42.5 16 112.8
1957 5 12.29 12.3 5 61.5 25 151.0

1958 6 8.85 8.9 6 53.1 36 78.3
1959 7 11.84 11.8 7 82.9 49 140.2
1960 8 14.6 14.6 8 116.8 64 213.2
1961 9 10.96 11.0 9 98.6 81 120.1
1962 10 11.74 11.7 10 117.4 100 137.8
1963 11 16.05 16.1 11 176.6 121 257.6
1965 13 8 8.0 13 104.0 169 64.0
1966 14 7.89 7.9 14 110.5 196 62.3
1967 15 7.43 7.4 15 111.5 225 55.2
1968 16 6.1 6.1 16 97.6 256 37.2
1969 17 13.65 13.7 17 232.1 289 186.3
1970 18 12.2 12.2 18 219.6 324 148.8
1971 19 10.76 10.8 19 204.4 361 115.8
1972 20 6.87 6.9 20 137.4 400 47.2
1973 21 13.47 13.5 21 282.9 441 181.4
1974 22 10.99 11.0 22 241.8 484 120.8
1975 23 9.33 9.3 23 214.6 529 87.0
1976 24 6.69 6.7 24 160.6 576 44.8
1977 25 13.8 13.8 25 345.0 625 190.4
1978 26 16.02 16.0 26 416.5 676 256.6
1979 27 11.57 11.6 27 312.4 729 133.9
1980 28 10.31 10.3 28 288.7 784 106.3
1981 29 12.33 12.3 29 357.6 841 152.0
1982 30 12.55 12.6 30 376.5 900 157.5
1983 31 17.05 17.1 31 528.6 961 290.7
1984 32 14.1 14.1 32 451.2 1024 198.8
1985 33 13.05 13.1 33 430.7 1089 170.3
1986 34 13.03 13.0 34 443.0 1156 169.8
1987 35 12.87 12.9 35 450.5 1225 165.6
1988 36 11.21 11.2 36 403.6 1296 125.7
1989 37 15.01 15.0 37 555.4 1369 225.3
1990 38 7.56 7.6 38 287.3 1444 57.2
1991 39 9.37 9.4 39 365.4 1521 87.8
1992 40 4.12 4.1 40 164.8 1600 17.0
1993 41 13.66 14 41 560.1 1681 186.6
1994 42 12.33 12.3 42 517.9 1764 152.0
1995 43 7.92 7.9 43 340.6 1849 62.7
1996 44 14.91 14.9 44 656.0 1936 222.3
1997 45 6.16 6.2 45 277.2 2025 37.9
1998 46 35.78 35.8 46 1645.9 2116 1280.2
sumatoria 524.35 1069 ### 33367 7104.7
Número de pares de datos: N= 45 10..
Cálculo de "a":
22
a=
a=
∑
∑ yy∑
∑ x x−− ∑∑xyxy ∑∑ x x
2 2
nn∑
∑x 2x−2 −(∑(∑x ) x )
Cálculo de "b":
nn∑
∑xyxy−−∑
∑x x∑∑y y
b=
b= 2 2
nn∑
∑xx22−−( ∑
( ∑x x) )
y = 9.7+0.081 x
Es decir:
T = 9.7+0.081 t
r=
r=
∑∑xyxy
nn −∑−∑
x∑x∑
y y
√√((nn∑∑xx−−(∑(∑x )x)() n)(∑n ∑y −y( ∑

22 2 2
y ) )y ) )
−( ∑2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.052
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
= √√ 2 2
rr n−2
n− 2
t cc= Reemplazando valores: tc = 2.015
√√1−r
1− r
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 43
Decisión:
tc = 2.015
tt = 1.96
Como: ltcl > tt Ha : r ¿0;
Entonces:
AÑO a=
b=
∑
n
TIEMPO
∑ y
¿
t
r= t(años)
∑
xy
=
x
− ∑
2
r √
− n∑
x∑∑
n−2 xy
Q(m3/s)
¿
xyy∑ −∑ x x ∑y y= Tm x = t
MAYO xy x2 y2
c 2 2 22 25.73
1953
1954
1955
√2
1
n
3
(
∑nn ∑x
∑ x
−x√− ∑
−(
21−r
( ∑
( x
∑ ) x )x )
2
5.42
5.02
)( n ∑ y2 5.7
5.0
−
5.4( ∑
3
1 2
2) )
y
5.7
10.8
15.1
1
4
9
32.8
29.4
25.2
1956 4 5.22 5.2 4 20.9 16 27.2
1957 5 6.18 6.2 5 30.9 25 38.2
1958 6 7.06 7.1 6 42.4 36 49.8

1959 7 7.89 7.9 7 55.2 49 62.3
1960 8 10.12 10.1 8 81.0 64 102.4
1961 9 6.13 6.1 9 55.2 81 37.6
1962 10 6.07 6.1 10 60.7 100 36.8
1963 11 6.37 6.4 11 70.1 121 40.6
1964 12 6.64 6.6 12 79.7 144 44.1
1965 13 5.41 5.4 13 70.3 169 29.3
1966 14 7.35 7.4 14 102.9 196 54.0
1967 15 5.49 5.5 15 82.4 225 30.1
1968 16 4.42 4.4 16 70.7 256 19.5
1969 17 8.82 8.8 17 149.9 289 77.8
1970 18 8.29 8.3 18 149.2 324 68.7
1971 19 5.41 5.4 19 102.8 361 29.3

1972 20 5.03 5.0 20 100.6 400 25.3
1973 21 7.6 7.6 21 159.6 441 57.8
1974 22 4.87 4.9 22 107.1 484 23.7
1975 23 6.56 6.6 23 150.9 529 43.0
1976 24 6.62 6.6 24 158.9 576 43.8
1977 25 8.85 8.9 25 221.3 625 78.3
1978 26 13.96 14.0 26 363.0 676 194.9
1979 27 7.39 7.4 27 199.5 729 54.6
1980 28 6.13 6.1 28 171.6 784 37.6
1981 29 7.16 7.2 29 207.6 841 51.3
1982 30 7.94 7.9 30 238.2 900 63.0
1983 31 12.87 12.9 31 399.0 961 165.6
1984 32 6.88 6.9 32 220.2 1024 47.3
1985 33 3.92 3.9 33 129.4 1089 15.4
1986 34 7 7.0 34 238.0 1156 49.0
1987 35 7.82 7.8 35 273.7 1225 61.2
1988 36 5.98 6.0 36 215.3 1296 35.8
1989 37 5.41 5.4 37 200.2 1369 29.3
1990 38 3.08 3.1 38 117.0 1444 9.5
1991 39 5.97 6.0 39 232.8 1521 35.6
1992 40 2.52 2.5 40 100.8 1600 6.4
1993 41 7.33 7 41 300.5 1681 53.7
1994 42 9.37 9.4 42 393.5 1764 87.8
1995 43 5.2 5.2 43 223.6 1849 27.0
1996 44 7.67 7.7 44 337.5 1936 58.8
1997 45 6 6.0 45 270.0 2025 36.0
1998 46 16.36 16.4 46 752.6 2116 267.6
sumatoria 318.53 1081 7738.2 33511 2494.6
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )

Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 6.192+0.031x
Es decir:
T = 6.192+0.031 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.132
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n− 2
t c= Reemplazando valores: tc = 2.592
√1− r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.592
tt = 1.96
Como: ltcl > tt Ha : r ¿ 0;
Entonces:

1953 1 4.17 4.2 1 4.2 1 17.4
1954 2 4.12 4.1 2 8.2 4 17.0
1955 3 3.42 3.4 3 10.3 9 11.7
1956 4 3.18 3.2 4 12.7 16 10.1
1957 5 3.08 3.1 5 15.4 25 9.5
1958 6 5.5 5.5 6 33.0 36 30.3
1959 7 4.99 5.0 7 34.9 49 24.9
1960 8 7.48 7.5 8 59.8 64 56.0

1961 9 3.87 3.9 9 34.8 81 15.0
1962 10 4.76 4.8 10 47.6 100 22.7
1963 11 4.47 4.5 11 49.2 121 20.0
1964 12 4.86 4.9 12 58.3 144 23.6
1965 13 3.74 3.7 13 48.6 169 14.0
1966 14 6.02 6.0 14 84.3 196 36.2
1967 15 4.37 4.4 15 65.6 225 19.1
1968 16 3.82 3.8 16 61.1 256 14.6
1969 17 6.74 6.7 17 114.6 289 45.4
1970 18 6.08 6.1 18 109.4 324 37.0
1971 19 4.09 4.1 19 77.7 361 16.7
1972 20 3.72 3.7 20 74.4 400 13.8
1973 21 4.52 4.5 21 94.9 441 20.4
1974 22 4.3 4.3 22 94.6 484 18.5
1975 23 3.77 3.8 23 86.7 529 14.2
1976 24 4.62 4.6 24 110.9 576 21.3

1977 25 5.75 5.8 25 143.8 625 33.1
1978 26 6.76 6.8 26 175.8 676 45.7
1979 27 6.38 6.4 27 172.3 729 40.7
1980 28 5.98 6.0 28 167.4 784 35.8
1981 29 5.25 5.3 29 152.3 841 27.6

1982 30 6.24 6.2 30 187.2 900 38.9
1983 31 7.19 7.2 31 222.9 961 51.7
1984 32 4.25 4.3 32 136.0 1024 18.1
1985 33 3.22 3.2 33 106.3 1089 10.4
1986 34 5.19 5.2 34 176.5 1156 26.9
1987 35 4.3 4.3 35 150.5 1225 18.5
1988 36 3.93 3.9 36 141.5 1296 15.4
1989 37 3.03 3.0 37 112.1 1369 9.2
1990 38 2.92 2.9 38 111.0 1444 8.5
1991 39 4.4 4.4 39 171.6 1521 19.4
1992 40 1.12 1.1 40 44.8 1600 1.3
1993 41 3.73 4 41 152.9 1681 13.9
1994 42 4.41 4.4 42 185.2 1764 19.4
1995 43 4.62 4.6 43 198.7 1849 21.3
1996 44 5.92 5.9 44 260.5 1936 35.0
1997 45 8.29 8.3 45 373.1 2025 68.7
1998 46 7.19 7.2 46 330.7 2116 51.7
sumatoria 219.76 1081 5264.1 33511 1140.5
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 4.488+0.012 x
Es decir:
T = 4.488+0.012 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.089
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n− 2
√1− r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.071
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

1953 1 4.04 4.0 1 4.0 1 16.3
1954 2 4.31 4.3 2 8.6 4 18.6
1955 3 3.09 3.1 3 9.3 9 9.5
1956 4 3.2 3.2 4 12.8 16 10.2

1957 5 3.65 3.7 5 18.3 25 13.3
1958 6 4.93 4.9 6 29.6 36 24.3
1959 7 4.49 4.5 7 31.4 49 20.2
1960 8 5.89 5.9 8 47.1 64 34.7
1961 9 3.35 3.4 9 30.2 81 11.2
1962 10 4.35 4.4 10 43.5 100 18.9
1963 11 3.95 4.0 11 43.5 121 15.6
1964 12 5.07 5.1 12 60.8 144 25.7
1965 13 3.07 3.1 13 39.9 169 9.4
1966 14 6.22 6.2 14 87.1 196 38.7
1967 15 3.67 3.7 15 55.1 225 13.5
1968 16 3.56 3.6 16 57.0 256 12.7
1969 17 5.32 5.3 17 90.4 289 28.3
1970 18 5.88 5.9 18 105.8 324 34.6
1971 19 3.73 3.7 19 70.9 361 13.9
1972 20 3.66 3.7 20 73.2 400 13.4
1973 21 3.58 3.6 21 75.2 441 12.8
1974 22 3.51 3.5 22 77.2 484 12.3
1975 23 3.59 3.6 23 82.6 529 12.9
1976 24 4.22 4.2 24 101.3 576 17.8
1977 25 5.23 5.2 25 130.8 625 27.4
1978 26 5.49 5.5 26 142.7 676 30.1
1979 27 5.13 5.1 27 138.5 729 26.3

1980 28 4.81 4.8 28 134.7 784 23.1
1981 29 5.24 5.2 29 152.0 841 27.5
1982 30 4.2 4.2 30 126.0 900 17.6
1983 31 7.05 7.1 31 218.6 961 49.7
1984 32 4.27 4.3 32 136.6 1024 18.2
1985 33 3.19 3.2 33 105.3 1089 10.2
1986 34 4.37 4.4 34 148.6 1156 19.1
1987 35 3.97 4.0 35 139.0 1225 15.8
1988 36 3.32 3.3 36 119.5 1296 11.0
1989 37 2.38 2.4 37 88.1 1369 5.7
1990 38 2.52 2.5 38 95.8 1444 6.4
1991 39 3.59 3.6 39 140.0 1521 12.9
1992 40 2.06 2.1 40 82.4 1600 4.2
1993 41 3.3 3 41 135.3 1681 10.9
1994 42 3.48 3.5 42 146.2 1764 12.1
1995 43 5.14 5.1 43 221.0 1849 26.4
1996 44 5.47 5.5 44 240.7 1936 29.9
1997 45 4.24 4.2 45 190.7 2025 18.0
1998 46 6.16 6.2 46 283.4 2116 37.9
sumatoria 194.94 1081 4570.3 33511 879.3
Cálculo de "a":
a=
∑ y ∑ x 2 −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 4.269-0.001x
Es decir:
T = 4.269-0.001 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0003
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n− 2
t c= Reemplazando valores: tc = -0.109
√1− r 2
Cálculo de tt:

a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = -0.109
tt = 1.96
Como: ltcl ≤ tt : Ho : r = 0
Entonces:

TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + B m t Ecuación Lineal Simple

1953 1 4.12 4.1 1 4.1 1 17.0
1954 2 3.84 3.8 2 7.7 4 14.7
1955 3 3.38 3.4 3 10.1 9 11.4
1956 4 3.69 3.7 4 14.8 16 13.6
1957 5 3.97 4.0 5 19.9 25 15.8
1958 6 5.03 5.0 6 30.2 36 25.3
1959 7 4.85 4.9 7 34.0 49 23.5
1960 8 6.44 6.4 8 51.5 64 41.5
1961 9 3.3 3.3 9 29.7 81 10.9
1962 10 4.53 4.5 10 45.3 100 20.5
1963 11 3.98 4.0 11 43.8 121 15.8
1964 12 5.13 5.1 12 61.6 144 26.3
1965 13 3.48 3.5 13 45.2 169 12.1
1966 14 5.67 5.7 14 79.4 196 32.1
1967 15 3.52 3.5 15 52.8 225 12.4
1968 16 3.41 3.4 16 54.6 256 11.6
1969 17 6.25 6.3 17 106.3 289 39.1
1970 18 5.66 5.7 18 101.9 324 32.0
1971 19 3.4 3.4 19 64.6 361 11.6
1972 20 3.76 3.8 20 75.2 400 14.1
1973 21 3.82 3.8 21 80.2 441 14.6
1974 22 3.37 3.4 22 74.1 484 11.4
1975 23 4.14 4.1 23 95.2 529 17.1
1976 24 4.32 4.3 24 103.7 576 18.7
1977 25 5.29 5.3 25 132.3 625 28.0
1978 26 5.43 5.4 26 141.2 676 29.5
1979 27 5.72 5.7 27 154.4 729 32.7
1980 28 5.02 5.0 28 140.6 784 25.2
1981 29 4.58 4.6 29 132.8 841 21.0
1982 30 4.68 4.7 30 140.4 900 21.9
1983 31 6.27 6.3 31 194.4 961 39.3
1984 32 4.65 4.7 32 148.8 1024 21.6
1985 33 3.64 3.6 33 120.1 1089 13.2
sumatoria 148.34 561 2590.7 12529 695.7
Cálculo de "a":
22
a=
a=
∑
∑ yy∑
∑ x x−− ∑∑xyxy ∑∑ x x
2 2
nn∑
∑x 2x−2 −( ∑( ∑x ) x )
Cálculo de "b":
nn∑∑xyxy−−∑∑x ∑x ∑y y
b=
b= 2 2
nn∑
∑xx2−2−(∑
( ∑x )x )
b=
b= 2 2
nn∑
∑xx2−2−(∑
( ∑x )x )
y = 4.329+0.002 x
Es decir:
T = 4.329+0.002 t
r=
r=
∑∑xyxy
nn −∑−∑
x∑x∑
y y
√√((nn∑∑xx−−(∑(∑x )x)() n)(∑n ∑y −y( ∑

22 2 2
y ) )y ) )
−( ∑ 2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.055
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
rr√√n−2
n−2
t c=
= Reemplazando valores: tc = 1.342
√√1−r
1−r22
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 31
Decisión:
tc = 1.342
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) SETIEMBRE y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 4.92 4.9 1 4.9 1 24.2
1954 2 3.74 3.7 2 7.5 4 14.0
1955 3 2.84 2.8 3 8.5 9 8.1
1956 4 2.9 2.9 4 11.6 16 8.4
1957 5 4.83 4.8 5 24.2 25 23.3
1958 6 5.11 5.1 6 30.7 36 26.1
1959 7 4.71 4.7 7 33.0 49 22.2
1960 8 2.63 2.6 8 21.0 64 6.9
1961 9 2.64 2.6 9 23.8 81 7.0
1962 10 4.27 4.3 10 42.7 100 18.2
1963 11 5.13 5.1 11 56.4 121 26.3
1964 12 4.01 4.0 12 48.1 144 16.1
1965 13 4.3 4.3 13 55.9 169 18.5
1966 14 6.49 6.5 14 90.9 196 42.1
1967 15 3.86 3.9 15 57.9 225 14.9
1968 16 4.27 4.3 16 68.3 256 18.2
1969 17 6.29 6.3 17 106.9 289 39.6
1970 18 4.4 4.4 18 79.2 324 19.4
1971 19 4.14 4.1 19 78.7 361 17.1
1972 20 3.76 3.8 20 75.2 400 14.1
1973 21 4.4 4.4 21 92.4 441 19.4
1974 22 3.5 3.5 22 77.0 484 12.3
1975 23 3.78 3.8 23 86.9 529 14.3
1976 24 6.33 6.3 24 151.9 576 40.1
1977 25 4.83 4.8 25 120.8 625 23.3
1978 26 6.42 6.4 26 166.9 676 41.2
1979 27 6.82 6.8 27 184.1 729 46.5
1980 28 8.3 8.3 28 232.4 784 68.9
1981 29 5.13 5.1 29 148.8 841 26.3
1982 30 5.67 5.7 30 170.1 900 32.1
1983 31 7.16 7.2 31 222.0 961 51.3
1984 32 4.99 5.0 32 159.7 1024 24.9
1985 33 5.51 5.5 33 181.8 1089 30.4
1986 34 4.76 4.8 34 161.8 1156 22.7
Cálculo de "a":
a=
a=
∑ ∑x 2x−2 −∑∑xyxy
∑ yy∑ ∑∑ x x
2 2
nn∑
∑x 2x−2 −( ∑( ∑x ) x )
Reemplazando valores: Am = #REF!
Cálculo de "b":
b=
b= 2 2
nn∑
∑xx2−2−(∑
( ∑x )x )
Reemplazando valores: Bm = #REF!
Y=3.748+0.051
Es decir:
T = 3.748+0.051 t
r=
r=
∑∑xyxy
nn −∑−∑
x∑x∑
y y
√√((nn∑∑xx−−(∑(∑x )x)() n)(∑n ∑y −y( ∑

22 2 2 2
y ) )y ) )
−( ∑ 2 2 2
Reemplazando valores: r = #REF!

r2 = #REF!
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
rr√√n−2
n−2
t c=
= Reemplazando valores: tc = #REF!
√√1−r
1−r22
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 32
Decisión:
tc = #REF!
Entonces:

1953 1 6.02 6.0 1 6.0 1 36.2
1954 2 4.73 4.7 2 9.5 4 22.4
1955 3 4.33 4.3 3 13.0 9 18.7
1956 4 4.02 4.0 4 16.1 16 16.2
1957 5 6.87 6.9 5 34.4 25 47.2
1958 6 6.14 6.1 6 36.8 36 37.7
1959 7 7.06 7.1 7 49.4 49 49.8

1960 8 7.6 7.6 8 60.8 64 57.8
1961 9 3.97 4.0 9 35.7 81 15.8

1962 10 6.27 6.3 10 62.7 100 39.3
1963 11 5.98 6.0 11 65.8 121 35.8
1964 12 5.98 6.0 12 71.8 144 35.8
1965 13 5.81 5.8 13 75.5 169 33.8
1966 14 7.09 7.1 14 99.3 196 50.3
1967 15 5.86 5.9 15 87.9 225 34.3
1968 16 5.73 5.7 16 91.7 256 32.8

1969 17 8.5 8.5 17 144.5 289 72.3
1970 18 6.24 6.2 18 112.3 324 38.9
1971 19 5.69 5.7 19 108.1 361 32.4
1972 20 4.96 5.0 20 99.2 400 24.6
1973 21 5.96 6.0 21 125.2 441 35.5
1974 22 4.72 4.7 22 103.8 484 22.3
1975 23 5.19 5.2 23 119.4 529 26.9
1976 24 8.86 8.9 24 212.6 576 78.5
1977 25 12.51 12.5 25 312.8 625 156.5
1978 26 6.68 6.7 26 173.7 676 44.6
1979 27 8.62 8.6 27 232.7 729 74.3
1980 28 11.74 11.7 28 328.7 784 137.8
1981 29 10.67 10.7 29 309.4 841 113.8
1982 30 10.38 10.4 30 311.4 900 107.7
1983 31 12.23 12.2 31 379.1 961 149.6
1984 32 7.08 7.1 32 226.6 1024 50.1
1985 33 5.34 5.3 33 176.2 1089 28.5
1986 34 7.28 7.3 34 247.5 1156 53.0
1987 35 8.42 8.4 35 294.7 1225 70.9
1988 36 6.9 6.9 36 248.4 1296 47.6
1989 37 6.27 6.3 37 232.0 1369 39.3
1990 38 7.72 7.7 38 293.4 1444 59.6
1991 39 4.71 4.7 39 183.7 1521 22.2
1992 40 2.85 2.9 40 114.0 1600 8.1
1993 41 5.81 6 41 238.2 1681 33.8
1994 42 6.02 6.0 42 252.8 1764 36.2
1995 43 7.5 7.5 43 322.5 1849 56.3
1996 44 8.01 8.0 44 352.4 1936 64.2
1997 45 7.08 7.1 45 318.6 2025 50.1
1998 46 10.81 10.8 46 497.3 2116 116.9
sumatoria 318.21 1081 7887.6 33511 2416.4
Cálculo de "a":
22
a=
a=
∑
∑ yy∑
∑ x x−− ∑∑xyxy∑∑ x x
2 2
nn∑
∑x 2x−2−( ∑( ∑x ) x )
Cálculo de "b":
nn∑∑xyxy−−∑∑x ∑
x ∑y y
b=
b= 2 2
nn∑
∑xx2−2−(∑
(∑x )x )
y = 5.73+0.051 x
Es decir:
T = 5.73+0.051 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
Cálculo delr=
coeficiente de correlacion (r) y determinación (r2):
√ ( n ∑ x −n(∑
2 2
∑ xxy) )(−n ∑xy −( ∑
∑ ∑ y
y) )
2 2
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.096
Hipotesis: ¿
r √ n−2
Cálculo del "tc": t c=
√r 1−r 2
t c= √ n− 2
Reemplazando valores: tc = 2.164
√1− r 2
Cálculo de tt:
n ∑yxy
∑ ∑−xr∑−√nn−2
En las tablas
¿ con un
∑
x∑ ∑xyxyy∑−∑
2 nivel de¿significancia de 5%, es decir:
x x∑ y
a=
b=r= t c= 22 2 2
V = N -2 =
n (
∑n√
n ∑
44
x x
−√
a/2 = 0.0252 2 2
∑ x(−∑
− (
1−r ∑
(x∑) x )x ) )( n ∑ y2
− ( ∑ y )
2
)
Decisión:
tc = 2.164
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

1953 1 8.98 9.0 1 9.0 1 80.6
1954 2 5.11 5.1 2 10.2 4 26.1
1955 3 5.02 5.0 3 15.1 9 25.2
1956 4 5 5.0 4 20.0 16 25.0
1957 5 8.92 8.9 5 44.6 25 79.6
1958 6 8.89 8.9 6 53.3 36 79.0
1959 7 8.38 8.4 7 58.7 49 70.2
1960 8 9.37 9.4 8 75.0 64 87.8

1961 9 5.69 5.7 9 51.2 81 32.4
1962 10 7.12 7.1 10 71.2 100 50.7
1963 11 9.55 9.6 11 105.1 121 91.2
1964 12 8.04 8.0 12 96.5 144 64.6
1965 13 6.7 6.7 13 87.1 169 44.9
1966 14 8.36 8.4 14 117.0 196 69.9
1967 15 7.66 7.7 15 114.9 225 58.7
1968 16 6.3 6.3 16 100.8 256 39.7
1969 17 10.86 10.9 17 184.6 289 117.9
1970 18 8.4 8.4 18 151.2 324 70.6
1971 19 5.9 5.9 19 112.1 361 34.8
1972 20 6.94 6.9 20 138.8 400 48.2
1973 21 8.13 8.1 21 170.7 441 66.1

1974 22 6.47 6.5 22 142.3 484 41.9
1975 23 5.24 5.2 23 120.5 529 27.5
1976 24 8.93 8.9 24 214.3 576 79.7
1977 25 16.79 16.8 25 419.8 625 281.9
1978 26 8.93 8.9 26 232.2 676 79.7
1979 27 9.8 9.8 27 264.6 729 96.0

1980 28 4.85 4.9 28 135.8 784 23.5
1981 29 13.52 13.5 29 392.1 841 182.8
1982 30 12.66 12.7 30 379.8 900 160.3
1983 31 10.36 10.4 31 321.2 961 107.3
1984 32 6.31 6.3 32 201.9 1024 39.8
1985 33 6.16 6.2 33 203.3 1089 37.9
1986 34 8.33 8.3 34 283.2 1156 69.4
1987 35 12.26 12.3 35 429.1 1225 150.3
1988 36 8.96 9.0 36 322.6 1296 80.3
1989 37 7.48 7.5 37 276.8 1369 56.0
1990 38 10.76 10.8 38 408.9 1444 115.8
1991 39 5.65 5.7 39 220.4 1521 31.9
1992 40 3.39 3.4 40 135.6 1600 11.5
1993 41 8.47 8 41 347.3 1681 71.7
1994 42 9.45 9.5 42 396.9 1764 89.3
1995 43 8.93 8.9 43 384.0 1849 79.7
1996 44 9.76 9.8 44 429.4 1936 95.3
1997 45 16.69 16.7 45 751.1 2025 278.6
1998 46 13.33 13.3 46 613.2 2116 177.7
sumatoria 392.8 1081 9813.1 33511 3729.0
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
6.851+0.072X
Es decir:
T = 6.851+0.072 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.112
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44

Decisión:
tc = 2.351
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

1953 1 10.02 10.0 1 10.0 1 100.4
1954 2 6.62 6.6 2 13.2 4 43.8
1955 3 6.44 6.4 3 19.3 9 41.5
1956 4 6.17 6.2 4 24.7 16 38.1
1957 5 8.75 8.8 5 43.8 25 76.6

1958 6 10.21 10.2 6 61.3 36 104.2
1959 7 10.66 10.7 7 74.6 49 113.6
1960 8 12.5 12.5 8 100.0 64 156.3
1961 9 8.09 8.1 9 72.8 81 65.4
1962 10 6.64 6.6 10 66.4 100 44.1
1963 11 13.47 13.5 11 148.2 121 181.4
1964 12 6.48 6.5 12 77.8 144 42.0
1965 13 8.81 8.8 13 114.5 169 77.6
1966 14 8.07 8.1 14 113.0 196 65.1
1967 15 7.73 7.7 15 116.0 225 59.8
1968 16 8.06 8.1 16 129.0 256 65.0
1969 17 11.35 11.4 17 193.0 289 128.8
1970 18 9.07 9.1 18 163.3 324 82.3
1971 19 7.6 7.6 19 144.4 361 57.8
1972 20 7.62 7.6 20 152.4 400 58.1
1973 21 8.01 8.0 21 168.2 441 64.2
1974 22 8.41 8.4 22 185.0 484 70.7
1975 23 4.94 4.9 23 113.6 529 24.4
1976 24 9.03 9.0 24 216.7 576 81.5

1977 25 17.4 17.4 25 435.0 625 302.8
1978 26 11.87 11.9 26 308.6 676 140.9
1979 27 11.25 11.3 27 303.8 729 126.6
1980 28 11.78 11.8 28 329.8 784 138.8
1981 29 9.4 9.4 29 272.6 841 88.4
1982 30 14.87 14.9 30 446.1 900 221.1
1983 31 9.49 9.5 31 294.2 961 90.1
1984 32 11.31 11.3 32 361.9 1024 127.9
1985 33 8.5 8.5 33 280.5 1089 72.3
1986 34 10.51 10.5 34 357.3 1156 110.5
1987 35 14.19 14.2 35 496.7 1225 201.4
1988 36 6.43 6.4 36 231.5 1296 41.3
1989 37 9.18 9.2 37 339.7 1369 84.3
1990 38 10.43 10.4 38 396.3 1444 108.8
1991 39 8.6 8.6 39 335.4 1521 74.0
1992 40 4.16 4.2 40 166.4 1600 17.3
1993 41 18.84 19 41 772.4 1681 354.9
1994 42 16.38 16.4 42 688.0 1764 268.3
1995 43 7.87 7.9 43 338.4 1849 61.9
1996 44 10.91 10.9 44 480.0 1936 119.0
1997 45 46.67 46.7 45 2100.2 2025 2178.1
1998 46 11.52 11.5 46 529.9 2116 132.7
sumatoria 486.31 1081 ### 33511 6903.8
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 6.637+0.167 x
Es decir:
T = 6.637 + 0.167 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ ( n ∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n ∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.129
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.552
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
2.. MÉTODO ESTADÍSTICO
DATOS HIDROMETRICOS DE LA ESTACIÓN DE CHANCOS - COMPLETADOS (m3/s)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
1953 7.28 13.01 14.53 12.02 5.73 4.167 4.04 4.12 4.92 6.02 8.98 10.02 94.83
1954 11.22 10.05 11.76 7.6 5.42 4.12 4.31 3.84 3.74 4.73 5.11 6.62 78.52
1955 6.59 16.45 14.06 9.69 5.02 3.42 3.09 3.38 2.84 4.33 5.02 6.44 80.33
1956 8.41 11.62 11.95 10.62 5.22 3.18 3.2 3.69 2.9 4.02 5 6.17 75.98
1957 6.27 11.38 10.97 12.29 6.18 3.08 3.65 3.97 4.83 6.87 8.92 8.75 87.16
1958 9.13 9.14 9.96 8.85 7.06 5.5 4.93 5.03 5.11 6.14 8.89 10.21 89.95
1959 12.05 12.98 13.23 11.84 7.89 4.99 4.49 4.85 4.71 7.06 8.38 10.66 103.13
1960 9.32 9.87 15.29 14.6 10.12 7.48 5.89 6.44 2.63 7.6 9.37 12.5 111.11
1961 17.51 12.31 14.12 10.96 6.13 3.87 3.35 3.3 2.64 3.97 5.69 8.09 91.94
1962 15.39 16.48 17.6 11.74 6.07 4.76 4.35 4.53 4.27 6.27 7.12 6.64 105.22
1963 10.14 11.31 15.56 16.05 6.37 4.47 3.95 3.98 5.13 5.98 9.55 13.47 105.96
1964 12.54 12.3 12.65 10.25 6.64 4.86 5.07 5.13 4.01 5.98 8.04 6.48 93.95
1965 6.1 8.06 12.39 8 5.41 3.74 3.07 3.48 4.3 5.81 6.7 8.81 75.87
1966 9.99 11.15 9.27 7.89 7.35 6.02 6.22 5.67 6.49 7.09 8.36 8.07 93.57
1967 10.74 19.52 16.51 7.43 5.49 4.37 3.67 3.52 3.86 5.86 7.66 7.73 96.36
1968 9.96 8.39 9.68 6.1 4.42 3.82 3.56 3.41 4.27 5.73 6.3 8.06 73.70
1969 8.8 8.3 10.63 13.65 8.82 6.74 5.32 6.25 6.29 8.5 10.86 11.35 105.51
1970 11.12 10.39 10.98 12.2 8.29 6.08 5.88 5.66 4.4 6.24 8.4 9.07 98.71
1971 9.72 13.58 20.83 10.76 5.41 4.09 3.73 3.4 4.14 5.69 5.9 7.6 94.85
1972 8.16 10.85 21.44 6.87 5.03 3.72 3.66 3.76 3.76 4.96 6.94 7.62 86.77
1973 9.67 10.03 11.36 13.47 7.6 4.52 3.58 3.82 4.4 5.96 8.13 8.01 90.55
1974 11.01 11.61 13.24 10.99 4.87 4.3 3.51 3.37 3.5 4.72 6.47 8.41 86.00
1975 11.72 11.45 16.77 9.33 6.56 3.77 3.59 4.14 3.78 5.19 5.24 4.94 86.48
1976 8.56 12.63 12.67 6.69 6.62 4.62 4.22 4.32 6.33 8.86 8.93 9.03 93.48
1977 13.86 14.3 14.61 13.8 8.85 5.75 5.23 5.29 4.83 12.51 16.79 17.4 133.22
1978 19.06 22.98 20.47 16.02 13.96 6.76 5.49 5.43 6.42 6.68 8.93 11.87 144.07
1979 11.6 14.8 20.11 11.57 7.39 6.38 5.13 5.72 6.82 8.62 9.8 11.25 119.19
1980 12.31 14.56 11.23 10.31 6.13 5.98 4.81 5.02 8.3 11.74 4.85 11.78 107.02
1981 10.51 18.4 17.24 12.33 7.16 5.25 5.24 4.58 5.13 10.67 13.52 9.4 119.43
1982 10.94 17.62 14.44 12.55 7.94 6.24 4.2 4.68 5.67 10.38 12.66 14.87 122.19
1983 20.35 17.58 19.73 17.05 12.87 7.19 7.05 6.27 7.16 12.23 10.36 9.49 147.33
1984 9.72 15.8 20.61 14.1 6.88 4.25 4.27 4.65 4.99 7.08 6.31 11.31 109.97
1985 11.46 11.5 11.54 13.05 3.92 3.22 3.19 3.64 5.51 5.34 6.16 8.5 87.03
1986 12.69 10.64 10.77 13.03 7 5.19 4.37 4.5 4.76 7.28 8.33 10.51 99.07
1987 14.39 15.4 15.3 12.87 7.82 4.3 3.97 3.98 5.25 8.42 12.26 14.19 118.15
1988 16.3 17.58 13.41 11.21 5.98 3.93 3.32 3.79 5.03 6.9 8.96 6.43 102.84
1989 9.88 13.8 14.74 15.01 5.41 3.03 2.38 2.68 3.39 6.27 7.48 9.18 93.25
1990 10.67 12.51 9.9 7.56 3.08 2.92 2.52 2.65 4.43 7.72 10.76 10.43 85.15
1991 10.89 12.64 17.51 9.37 5.97 4.4 3.59 3.95 4.53 4.71 5.65 8.6 91.81
1992 8.86 10.49 6.22 4.12 2.52 1.12 2.06 2.41 2.51 2.85 3.39 4.16 50.71
1993 8.37 15.04 13.32 13.66 7.33 3.73 3.3 3.37 3.97 5.81 8.47 18.84 105.21
1994 14.64 14.46 12.21 12.33 9.37 4.41 3.48 4.06 5.16 6.02 9.45 16.38 111.97
1995 12.36 11.99 10.36 7.92 5.2 4.62 5.14 5.21 5.34 7.5 8.93 7.87 92.44
1996 11.14 16.66 7.2 14.91 7.67 5.92 5.47 4.79 4.79 8.01 9.76 10.91 107.23
1997 10.76 9.01 12.22 6.16 6 8.29 4.2382 4.39 6.32 7.08 16.69 46.67 137.82
1998 44.33 59.95 52.89 35.78 16.36 7.19 6.16 7.56 13.69 10.81 13.33 11.52 279.57
1999 14.29 48.58 29.63 8.27 6.78 107.55
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
A.- CONSISTENCIA A LA MEDIA
Cálculo de la media y la desviación estandar para cada periodo:
Periodo dudoso: 1953 -1997 (Periodo 1)

Periodo confiable: 1998 - 1999 (Periodo 2)
n1 = 540 meses
n2 = 17 meses
N = 557 meses
Periodo 1
√
n1 n1
1 1
X̄ 1 = ∑ X i S 1 ( x )= ∑
n1 −1 i=1 ( X i − X̄ 1 )2
n1 i =1
Media 1 = 8.306
Desv. Est. 1 = 4.479
Periodo 2
√
n2 n2
1 1
X̄ 2 = ∑ X i
n2 i=1
S 2 ( x )= ∑ ( X − X̄ 2) 2
n2 −1 i=1 i
Media 2 = 22.77
Desv. Est. 2 = 18.38
Donde:
X̄ 1 , X̄ 2 Media del periodo 1 y 2
S1 ( x ) , S2 ( x ) Desviación estandar del periodo 1 y 2
Xi Información de análisis
n1, n2 Tamaño de cada periodo (Meses)
N Tamaño de la muestra
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo de la desviación estandar ponderada S p
S p=
√ ( n1 −1 ) S21 + ( n2 −1 ) S22
n 1 +n2 −2
Calculando tenemos: Sp = 5.4057
Cálculo de la desviación estandar de la diferencia de promedios S d
S d =S p
√ 1 1
+
n1 n2
Calculando tenemos: Sd = 1.3316
Cálculo de tc
( X̄ 1 − X̄ 2 ) −( μ1 −μ 2 ) Pero: μ1 =μ2 (por hipótesis las medias son iguales)

tc=
Sd
Entonces:
Por lo tanto: tc = -10.86

( X̄ 1 − X̄ 2 )
tc=
Sd
Cálculo det tt
En las tablas con 95% de probabilidad, o con un nivel de significancia de 5%, es decir:
a/2 = 0.025
V=N-2 = 555
Decisión
tc = 10.86
tt = 1.96
Como: ltcl ≤ tt ………………OK! (ACEPTO)
Entonces: X̄ 1 = X̄ 2
Las medias son estadisticamente iguales, no se realizan correciones. No es necesario
realizar el análisis de consistencia a la desviación estandar
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
4.3 ANÁLISIS DE TENDENCIA
1.. TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + Bm t Ecuación Lineal Simple
AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) ENERO y = Tm x = t xy x2 y2

1953 1 7.28 7.3 1 7.3 1 53.0
1954 2 11.22 11.2 2 22.4 4 125.9
1955 3 6.59 6.6 3 19.8 9 43.4
1956 4 8.41 8.4 4 33.6 16 70.7
1957 5 6.27 6.3 5 31.4 25 39.3
1958 6 9.13 9.1 6 54.8 36 83.4
1959 7 12.05 12.1 7 84.4 49 145.2
1960 8 9.32 9.3 8 74.6 64 86.9
1961 9 17.51 17.5 9 157.6 81 306.6
1962 10 15.39 15.4 10 153.9 100 236.9
1963 11 10.14 10.1 11 111.5 121 102.8
1964 12 12.54 12.5 12 150.5 144 157.3
1965 13 6.1 6.1 13 79.3 169 37.2
1966 14 9.99 10.0 14 139.9 196 99.8
1967 15 10.74 10.7 15 161.1 225 115.3
1968 16 9.96 10.0 16 159.4 256 99.2
1969 17 8.8 8.8 17 149.6 289 77.4
1970 18 11.12 11.1 18 200.2 324 123.7
1971 19 9.72 9.7 19 184.7 361 94.5
1972 20 8.16 8.2 20 163.2 400 66.6
1973 21 9.67 9.7 21 203.1 441 93.5
1974 22 11.01 11.0 22 242.2 484 121.2
1975 23 11.72 11.7 23 269.6 529 137.4
1976 24 8.56 8.6 24 205.4 576 73.3
1977 25 13.86 13.9 25 346.5 625 192.1
1978 26 19.06 19.1 26 495.6 676 363.3
1979 27 11.6 11.6 27 313.2 729 134.6
1980 28 12.31 12.3 28 344.7 784 151.5
1981 29 10.51 10.5 29 304.8 841 110.5
1982 30 10.94 10.9 30 328.2 900 119.7
1983 31 20.35 20.4 31 630.9 961 414.1
1984 32 9.72 9.7 32 311.0 1024 94.5
1985 33 11.46 11.5 33 378.2 1089 131.3
1986 34 12.69 12.7 34 431.5 1156 161.0
1987 35 14.39 14.4 35 503.7 1225 207.1
1988 36 16.3 16.3 36 586.8 1296 265.7
1989 37 9.88 9.9 37 365.6 1369 97.6
1990 38 10.67 10.7 38 405.5 1444 113.8
1991 39 10.89 10.9 39 424.7 1521 118.6
1992 40 8.86 8.9 40 354.4 1600 78.5
1993 41 8.37 8 41 343.2 1681 70.1
1994 42 14.64 14.6 42 614.9 1764 214.3
1995 43 12.36 12.4 43 531.5 1849 152.8
1996 44 11.14 11.1 44 490.2 1936 124.1
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1997 45 10.76 10.8 45 484.2 2025 115.8

1998 46 44.33 44.3 46 2039.2 2116 1965.1
sumatoria 546.49 1081 14087.3 33511 7986.5
Cálculo de "a":
a=
∑ y ∑ x 2−∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 8.3+0.154 x
Es decir:
T = 8.3+0.154 t
Cálculo del coeficiente de correlacion (r) y determinación (r 2):
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.128
Hipotesis:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo del "tc":

r √ n−2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.541
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 13.01 13.0 1 13.0 1 169.3
1954 2 10.05 10.1 2 20.1 4 101.0
1955 3 16.45 16.5 3 49.4 9 270.6
1956 4 11.62 11.6 4 46.5 16 135.0
1957 5 11.38 11.4 5 56.9 25 129.5
1958 6 9.14 9.1 6 54.8 36 83.5
1959 7 12.98 13.0 7 90.9 49 168.5
1960 8 9.87 9.9 8 79.0 64 97.4
1961 9 12.31 12.3 9 110.8 81 151.5
1962 10 16.48 16.5 10 164.8 100 271.6
1963 11 11.31 11.3 11 124.4 121 127.9
1964 12 12.3 12.3 12 147.6 144 151.3
1965 13 8.06 8.1 13 104.8 169 65.0
1966 14 11.15 11.2 14 156.1 196 124.3
1967 15 19.52 19.5 15 292.8 225 381.0
1968 16 8.39 8.4 16 134.2 256 70.4
1969 17 8.3 8.3 17 141.1 289 68.9
1970 18 10.39 10.4 18 187.0 324 108.0
1971 19 13.58 13.6 19 258.0 361 184.4
1972 20 10.85 10.9 20 217.0 400 117.7
1973 21 10.03 10.0 21 210.6 441 100.6
1974 22 11.61 11.6 22 255.4 484 134.8
1975 23 11.45 11.5 23 263.4 529 131.1
1976 24 12.63 12.6 24 303.1 576 159.5
1977 25 14.3 14.3 25 357.5 625 204.5
1978 26 22.98 23.0 26 597.5 676 528.1
1979 27 14.8 14.8 27 399.6 729 219.0
1980 28 14.56 14.6 28 407.7 784 212.0
1981 29 18.4 18.4 29 533.6 841 338.6
1982 30 17.62 17.6 30 528.6 900 310.5
1983 31 17.58 17.6 31 545.0 961 309.1
1984 32 15.8 15.8 32 505.6 1024 249.6
1985 33 11.5 11.5 33 379.5 1089 132.3
1986 34 10.64 10.6 34 361.8 1156 113.2
1987 35 15.4 15.4 35 539.0 1225 237.2
1988 36 17.58 17.6 36 632.9 1296 309.1
1989 37 13.8 13.8 37 510.6 1369 190.4
1990 38 12.51 12.5 38 475.4 1444 156.5
1991 39 12.64 12.6 39 493.0 1521 159.8
1992 40 10.49 10.5 40 419.6 1600 110.0
1993 41 15.04 15 41 616.6 1681 226.2
1994 42 14.46 14.5 42 607.3 1764 209.1
1995 43 11.99 12.0 43 515.6 1849 143.8
1996 44 16.66 16.7 44 733.0 1936 277.6
1997 45 9.01 9.0 45 405.5 2025 81.2
1998 46 59.95 60.0 46 2757.7 2116 3594.0
sumatoria 650.57 1081 16804.1 33511 11814.4
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 9.7+0.187 x
Es decir:
T = 9.7 + 0.187 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2
Reemplazando valores: r= 0.329

r2 = 0.108
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
t c=
√1−r 2
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
r √ n−2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.313
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 14.53 14.5 1 14.5 1 211.1
1954 2 11.76 11.8 2 23.5 4 138.3
1955 3 14.06 14.1 3 42.2 9 197.7
1956 4 11.95 12.0 4 47.8 16 142.8
1957 5 10.97 11.0 5 54.9 25 120.3
1958 6 9.96 10.0 6 59.8 36 99.2
1959 7 13.23 13.2 7 92.6 49 175.0
1960 8 15.29 15.3 8 122.3 64 233.8
1961 9 14.12 14.1 9 127.1 81 199.4
1962 10 17.6 17.6 10 176.0 100 309.8
1963 11 15.56 15.6 11 171.2 121 242.1
1964 12 12.65 12.7 12 151.8 144 160.0
1965 13 12.39 12.4 13 161.1 169 153.5
1966 14 9.27 9.3 14 129.8 196 85.9
1967 15 16.51 16.5 15 247.7 225 272.6
1968 16 9.68 9.7 16 154.9 256 93.7
1969 17 10.63 10.6 17 180.7 289 113.0
1970 18 10.98 11.0 18 197.6 324 120.6
1971 19 20.83 20.8 19 395.8 361 433.9
1972 20 21.44 21.4 20 428.8 400 459.7
1973 21 11.36 11.4 21 238.6 441 129.0
1974 22 13.24 13.2 22 291.3 484 175.3
1975 23 16.77 16.8 23 385.7 529 281.2
1976 24 12.67 12.7 24 304.1 576 160.5
1977 25 14.61 14.6 25 365.3 625 213.5
1978 26 20.47 20.5 26 532.2 676 419.0
1979 27 20.11 20.1 27 543.0 729 404.4
1980 28 11.23 11.2 28 314.4 784 126.1
1981 29 17.24 17.2 29 500.0 841 297.2
1982 30 14.44 14.4 30 433.2 900 208.5
1983 31 19.73 19.7 31 611.6 961 389.3
1984 32 20.61 20.6 32 659.5 1024 424.8
1985 33 11.54 11.5 33 380.8 1089 133.2
1986 34 10.77 10.8 34 366.2 1156 116.0
1987 35 15.3 15.3 35 535.5 1225 234.1
1988 36 13.41 13.4 36 482.8 1296 179.8
1989 37 14.74 14.7 37 545.4 1369 217.3
1990 38 9.9 9.9 38 376.2 1444 98.0
1991 39 17.51 17.5 39 682.9 1521 306.6
1992 40 6.22 6.2 40 248.8 1600 38.7
1993 41 13.32 13 41 546.1 1681 177.4
1994 42 12.21 12.2 42 512.8 1764 149.1
1995 43 10.36 10.4 43 445.5 1849 107.3
1996 44 7.2 7.2 44 316.8 1936 51.8
1997 45 12.22 12.2 45 549.9 2025 149.3
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1998 46 52.89 52.9 46 2432.9 2116 2797.4

sumatoria 673.48 1081 16581.3 33511 11947.3
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )

y =12.5+0.093 x
Es decir:
T = 12.5+0.093 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.034
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.789
tt = 1.96
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Entonces: Como: ltcl > tt Ha : r ¿ 0

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) ABRIL y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 12.0174 12.0 1 12.0 1 144.4
1954 2 7.6 7.6 2 15.2 4 57.8
1955 3 9.69 9.7 3 29.1 9 93.9
1956 4 10.62 10.6 4 42.5 16 112.8
1957 5 12.29 12.3 5 61.5 25 151.0
1958 6 8.85 8.9 6 53.1 36 78.3
1959 7 11.84 11.8 7 82.9 49 140.2
1960 8 14.6 14.6 8 116.8 64 213.2
1961 9 10.96 11.0 9 98.6 81 120.1
1962 10 11.74 11.7 10 117.4 100 137.8
1963 11 16.05 16.1 11 176.6 121 257.6
1964 12 10.25 10.3 12 123.0 144 105.1
1965 13 8 8.0 13 104.0 169 64.0
1966 14 7.89 7.9 14 110.5 196 62.3
1967 15 7.43 7.4 15 111.5 225 55.2
1968 16 6.1 6.1 16 97.6 256 37.2
1969 17 13.65 13.7 17 232.1 289 186.3
1970 18 12.2 12.2 18 219.6 324 148.8
1971 19 10.76 10.8 19 204.4 361 115.8
1972 20 6.87 6.9 20 137.4 400 47.2
1973 21 13.47 13.5 21 282.9 441 181.4
1974 22 10.99 11.0 22 241.8 484 120.8
1975 23 9.33 9.3 23 214.6 529 87.0
1976 24 6.69 6.7 24 160.6 576 44.8
1977 25 13.8 13.8 25 345.0 625 190.4
1978 26 16.02 16.0 26 416.5 676 256.6
1979 27 11.57 11.6 27 312.4 729 133.9
1980 28 10.31 10.3 28 288.7 784 106.3
1981 29 12.33 12.3 29 357.6 841 152.0
1982 30 12.55 12.6 30 376.5 900 157.5
1983 31 17.05 17.1 31 528.6 961 290.7
1984 32 14.1 14.1 32 451.2 1024 198.8
1985 33 13.05 13.1 33 430.7 1089 170.3
1986 34 13.03 13.0 34 443.0 1156 169.8
1987 35 12.87 12.9 35 450.5 1225 165.6
1988 36 11.21 11.2 36 403.6 1296 125.7
1989 37 15.01 15.0 37 555.4 1369 225.3
1990 38 7.56 7.6 38 287.3 1444 57.2
1991 39 9.37 9.4 39 365.4 1521 87.8
1992 40 4.12 4.1 40 164.8 1600 17.0
1993 41 13.66 14 41 560.1 1681 186.6
1994 42 12.33 12.3 42 517.9 1764 152.0
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1995 43 7.92 7.9 43 340.6 1849 62.7

1996 44 14.91 14.9 44 656.0 1936 222.3
1997 45 6.16 6.2 45 277.2 2025 37.9
1998 46 35.78 35.8 46 1645.9 2116 1280.2
sumatoria 534.59735 1081 13220.0 33511 7209.7
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 9.7+0.081 x
Es decir:
T = 9.7+0.081 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.053
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.015
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) MAYO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 5.73 5.7 1 5.7 1 32.8
1954 2 5.42 5.4 2 10.8 4 29.4
1955 3 5.02 5.0 3 15.1 9 25.2
1956 4 5.22 5.2 4 20.9 16 27.2
1957 5 6.18 6.2 5 30.9 25 38.2
1958 6 7.06 7.1 6 42.4 36 49.8
1959 7 7.89 7.9 7 55.2 49 62.3
1960 8 10.12 10.1 8 81.0 64 102.4
1961 9 6.13 6.1 9 55.2 81 37.6
1962 10 6.07 6.1 10 60.7 100 36.8
1963 11 6.37 6.4 11 70.1 121 40.6
1964 12 6.64 6.6 12 79.7 144 44.1
1965 13 5.41 5.4 13 70.3 169 29.3
1966 14 7.35 7.4 14 102.9 196 54.0
1967 15 5.49 5.5 15 82.4 225 30.1
1968 16 4.42 4.4 16 70.7 256 19.5
1969 17 8.82 8.8 17 149.9 289 77.8
1970 18 8.29 8.3 18 149.2 324 68.7
1971 19 5.41 5.4 19 102.8 361 29.3
1972 20 5.03 5.0 20 100.6 400 25.3
1973 21 7.6 7.6 21 159.6 441 57.8
1974 22 4.87 4.9 22 107.1 484 23.7
1975 23 6.56 6.6 23 150.9 529 43.0
1976 24 6.62 6.6 24 158.9 576 43.8
1977 25 8.85 8.9 25 221.3 625 78.3
1978 26 13.96 14.0 26 363.0 676 194.9
1979 27 7.39 7.4 27 199.5 729 54.6
1980 28 6.13 6.1 28 171.6 784 37.6
1981 29 7.16 7.2 29 207.6 841 51.3
1982 30 7.94 7.9 30 238.2 900 63.0
1983 31 12.87 12.9 31 399.0 961 165.6
1984 32 6.88 6.9 32 220.2 1024 47.3
1985 33 3.92 3.9 33 129.4 1089 15.4
1986 34 7 7.0 34 238.0 1156 49.0
1987 35 7.82 7.8 35 273.7 1225 61.2
1988 36 5.98 6.0 36 215.3 1296 35.8
1989 37 5.41 5.4 37 200.2 1369 29.3
1990 38 3.08 3.1 38 117.0 1444 9.5
1991 39 5.97 6.0 39 232.8 1521 35.6
1992 40 2.52 2.5 40 100.8 1600 6.4
1993 41 7.33 7 41 300.5 1681 53.7
1994 42 9.37 9.4 42 393.5 1764 87.8
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1995 43 5.2 5.2 43 223.6 1849 27.0

1996 44 7.67 7.7 44 337.5 1936 58.8
1997 45 6 6.0 45 270.0 2025 36.0
1998 46 16.36 16.4 46 752.6 2116 267.6
sumatoria 318.53016 1081 7738.2 33511 2494.6
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 6.192+0.031x
Es decir:
T = 6.192+0.031 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.132
Hipotesis:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.592
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 4.17 4.2 1 4.2 1 17.4
1954 2 4.12 4.1 2 8.2 4 17.0
1955 3 3.42 3.4 3 10.3 9 11.7
1956 4 3.18 3.2 4 12.7 16 10.1
1957 5 3.08 3.1 5 15.4 25 9.5
1958 6 5.5 5.5 6 33.0 36 30.3
1959 7 4.99 5.0 7 34.9 49 24.9
1960 8 7.48 7.5 8 59.8 64 56.0
1961 9 3.87 3.9 9 34.8 81 15.0
1962 10 4.76 4.8 10 47.6 100 22.7
1963 11 4.47 4.5 11 49.2 121 20.0
1964 12 4.86 4.9 12 58.3 144 23.6
1965 13 3.74 3.7 13 48.6 169 14.0
1966 14 6.02 6.0 14 84.3 196 36.2
1967 15 4.37 4.4 15 65.6 225 19.1
1968 16 3.82 3.8 16 61.1 256 14.6
1969 17 6.74 6.7 17 114.6 289 45.4
1970 18 6.08 6.1 18 109.4 324 37.0
1971 19 4.09 4.1 19 77.7 361 16.7
1972 20 3.72 3.7 20 74.4 400 13.8
1973 21 4.52 4.5 21 94.9 441 20.4
1974 22 4.3 4.3 22 94.6 484 18.5
1975 23 3.77 3.8 23 86.7 529 14.2
1976 24 4.62 4.6 24 110.9 576 21.3
1977 25 5.75 5.8 25 143.8 625 33.1
1978 26 6.76 6.8 26 175.8 676 45.7
1979 27 6.38 6.4 27 172.3 729 40.7
1980 28 5.98 6.0 28 167.4 784 35.8
1981 29 5.25 5.3 29 152.3 841 27.6
1982 30 6.24 6.2 30 187.2 900 38.9
1983 31 7.19 7.2 31 222.9 961 51.7
1984 32 4.25 4.3 32 136.0 1024 18.1
1985 33 3.22 3.2 33 106.3 1089 10.4
1986 34 5.19 5.2 34 176.5 1156 26.9
1987 35 4.3 4.3 35 150.5 1225 18.5
1988 36 3.93 3.9 36 141.5 1296 15.4
1989 37 3.03 3.0 37 112.1 1369 9.2
1990 38 2.92 2.9 38 111.0 1444 8.5
1991 39 4.4 4.4 39 171.6 1521 19.4
1992 40 1.12 1.1 40 44.8 1600 1.3
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1993 41 3.73 4 41 152.9 1681 13.9

1994 42 4.41 4.4 42 185.2 1764 19.4
1995 43 4.62 4.6 43 198.7 1849 21.3
1996 44 5.92 5.9 44 260.5 1936 35.0
1997 45 8.29 8.3 45 373.1 2025 68.7
1998 46 7.19 7.2 46 330.7 2116 51.7
sumatoria 219.75735 1081 5264.1 33511 1140.5
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 4.488+0.012 x
Es decir:
T = 4.488+0.012 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.089
Hipotesis:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.071
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 4.04 4.0 1 4.0 1 16.3
1954 2 4.31 4.3 2 8.6 4 18.6
1955 3 3.09 3.1 3 9.3 9 9.5
1956 4 3.2 3.2 4 12.8 16 10.2
1957 5 3.65 3.7 5 18.3 25 13.3
1958 6 4.93 4.9 6 29.6 36 24.3
1959 7 4.49 4.5 7 31.4 49 20.2
1960 8 5.89 5.9 8 47.1 64 34.7
1961 9 3.35 3.4 9 30.2 81 11.2
1962 10 4.35 4.4 10 43.5 100 18.9
1963 11 3.95 4.0 11 43.5 121 15.6
1964 12 5.07 5.1 12 60.8 144 25.7
1965 13 3.07 3.1 13 39.9 169 9.4
1966 14 6.22 6.2 14 87.1 196 38.7
1967 15 3.67 3.7 15 55.1 225 13.5
1968 16 3.56 3.6 16 57.0 256 12.7
1969 17 5.32 5.3 17 90.4 289 28.3
1970 18 5.88 5.9 18 105.8 324 34.6
1971 19 3.73 3.7 19 70.9 361 13.9
1972 20 3.66 3.7 20 73.2 400 13.4
1973 21 3.58 3.6 21 75.2 441 12.8
1974 22 3.51 3.5 22 77.2 484 12.3
1975 23 3.59 3.6 23 82.6 529 12.9
1976 24 4.22 4.2 24 101.3 576 17.8
1977 25 5.23 5.2 25 130.8 625 27.4
1978 26 5.49 5.5 26 142.7 676 30.1
1979 27 5.13 5.1 27 138.5 729 26.3
1980 28 4.81 4.8 28 134.7 784 23.1
1981 29 5.24 5.2 29 152.0 841 27.5
1982 30 4.2 4.2 30 126.0 900 17.6
1983 31 7.05 7.1 31 218.6 961 49.7
1984 32 4.27 4.3 32 136.6 1024 18.2
1985 33 3.19 3.2 33 105.3 1089 10.2
1986 34 4.37 4.4 34 148.6 1156 19.1
1987 35 3.97 4.0 35 139.0 1225 15.8
1988 36 3.32 3.3 36 119.5 1296 11.0
1989 37 2.38 2.4 37 88.1 1369 5.7
1990 38 2.52 2.5 38 95.8 1444 6.4
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1991 39 3.59 3.6 39 140.0 1521 12.9

1992 40 2.06 2.1 40 82.4 1600 4.2
1993 41 3.3 3 41 135.3 1681 10.9
1994 42 3.48 3.5 42 146.2 1764 12.1
1995 43 5.14 5.1 43 221.0 1849 26.4
1996 44 5.47 5.5 44 240.7 1936 29.9
1997 45 4.24 4.2 45 190.7 2025 18.0
1998 46 6.16 6.2 46 283.4 2116 37.9
sumatoria 194.93818 1081 4570.3 33511 879.3
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 4.269-0.001x
Es decir:
T = 4.269-0.001 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.0003
Hipotesis:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
t c= Reemplazando valores: tc = -0.109
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = -0.109
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 4.12 4.1 1 4.1 1 17.0
1954 2 3.84 3.8 2 7.7 4 14.7
1955 3 3.38 3.4 3 10.1 9 11.4
1956 4 3.69 3.7 4 14.8 16 13.6
1957 5 3.97 4.0 5 19.9 25 15.8
1958 6 5.03 5.0 6 30.2 36 25.3
1959 7 4.85 4.9 7 34.0 49 23.5
1960 8 6.44 6.4 8 51.5 64 41.5
1961 9 3.3 3.3 9 29.7 81 10.9
1962 10 4.53 4.5 10 45.3 100 20.5
1963 11 3.98 4.0 11 43.8 121 15.8
1964 12 5.13 5.1 12 61.6 144 26.3
1965 13 3.48 3.5 13 45.2 169 12.1
1966 14 5.67 5.7 14 79.4 196 32.1
1967 15 3.52 3.5 15 52.8 225 12.4
1968 16 3.41 3.4 16 54.6 256 11.6
1969 17 6.25 6.3 17 106.3 289 39.1
1970 18 5.66 5.7 18 101.9 324 32.0
1971 19 3.4 3.4 19 64.6 361 11.6
1972 20 3.76 3.8 20 75.2 400 14.1
1973 21 3.82 3.8 21 80.2 441 14.6
1974 22 3.37 3.4 22 74.1 484 11.4
1975 23 4.14 4.1 23 95.2 529 17.1
1976 24 4.32 4.3 24 103.7 576 18.7
1977 25 5.29 5.3 25 132.3 625 28.0
1978 26 5.43 5.4 26 141.2 676 29.5
1979 27 5.72 5.7 27 154.4 729 32.7
1980 28 5.02 5.0 28 140.6 784 25.2
1981 29 4.58 4.6 29 132.8 841 21.0
1982 30 4.68 4.7 30 140.4 900 21.9
1983 31 6.27 6.3 31 194.4 961 39.3
1984 32 4.65 4.7 32 148.8 1024 21.6
1985 33 3.64 3.6 33 120.1 1089 13.2
1986 34 4.5 4.5 34 153.0 1156 20.3
1987 35 3.98 4.0 35 139.3 1225 15.8
1988 36 3.79 3.8 36 136.4 1296 14.4
1989 37 2.68 2.7 37 99.2 1369 7.2
1990 38 2.65 2.7 38 100.7 1444 7.0
1991 39 3.95 4.0 39 154.1 1521 15.6
1992 40 2.41 2.4 40 96.4 1600 5.8
1993 41 3.37 3 41 138.2 1681 11.4
1994 42 4.06 4.1 42 170.5 1764 16.5
1995 43 5.21 5.2 43 224.0 1849 27.1
1996 44 4.79 4.8 44 210.8 1936 22.9
1997 45 4.39 4.4 45 197.4 2025 19.2
1998 46 7.56 7.6 46 347.8 2116 57.2
sumatoria 201.676 1081 4758.3 33511 936.0
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 4.329+0.002 x
Es decir:
T = 4.329+0.002 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.001
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
t c=
√1−r 2
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
r √ n−2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 0.194
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) SETIEMBRE y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

1953 1 4.92 4.9 1 4.9 1 24.2
1954 2 3.74 3.7 2 7.5 4 14.0
1955 3 2.84 2.8 3 8.5 9 8.1
1956 4 2.9 2.9 4 11.6 16 8.4
1957 5 4.83 4.8 5 24.2 25 23.3
1958 6 5.11 5.1 6 30.7 36 26.1
1959 7 4.71 4.7 7 33.0 49 22.2
1960 8 2.63 2.6 8 21.0 64 6.9
1961 9 2.64 2.6 9 23.8 81 7.0
1962 10 4.27 4.3 10 42.7 100 18.2
1963 11 5.13 5.1 11 56.4 121 26.3
1964 12 4.01 4.0 12 48.1 144 16.1
1965 13 4.3 4.3 13 55.9 169 18.5
1966 14 6.49 6.5 14 90.9 196 42.1
1967 15 3.86 3.9 15 57.9 225 14.9
1968 16 4.27 4.3 16 68.3 256 18.2
1969 17 6.29 6.3 17 106.9 289 39.6
1970 18 4.4 4.4 18 79.2 324 19.4
1971 19 4.14 4.1 19 78.7 361 17.1
1972 20 3.76 3.8 20 75.2 400 14.1
1973 21 4.4 4.4 21 92.4 441 19.4
1974 22 3.5 3.5 22 77.0 484 12.3
1975 23 3.78 3.8 23 86.9 529 14.3
1976 24 6.33 6.3 24 151.9 576 40.1
1977 25 4.83 4.8 25 120.8 625 23.3
1978 26 6.42 6.4 26 166.9 676 41.2
1979 27 6.82 6.8 27 184.1 729 46.5
1980 28 8.3 8.3 28 232.4 784 68.9
1981 29 5.13 5.1 29 148.8 841 26.3
1982 30 5.67 5.7 30 170.1 900 32.1
1983 31 7.16 7.2 31 222.0 961 51.3
1984 32 4.99 5.0 32 159.7 1024 24.9
1985 33 5.51 5.5 33 181.8 1089 30.4
1986 34 4.76 4.8 34 161.8 1156 22.7
1987 35 5.25 5.3 35 183.8 1225 27.6
1988 36 5.03 5.0 36 181.1 1296 25.3
1989 37 3.39 3.4 37 125.4 1369 11.5
1990 38 4.43 4.4 38 168.3 1444 19.6
1991 39 4.53 4.5 39 176.7 1521 20.5
1992 40 2.51 2.5 40 100.4 1600 6.3
1993 41 3.97 4 41 162.8 1681 15.8
1994 42 5.16 5.2 42 216.7 1764 26.6
1995 43 5.34 5.3 43 229.6 1849 28.5
1996 44 4.79 4.8 44 210.8 1936 22.9
1997 45 6.32 6.3 45 284.4 2025 39.9
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1998 46 13.69 13.7 46 629.7 2116 187.4

sumatoria 227.25 1081 5751.7 33511 1270.3
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Y=3.748+0.051
Es decir:
T = 3.748+0.051 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.141
Hipotesis:
Cálculo del "tc":

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
r √ n−2
t c=
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.691
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 6.02 6.0 1 6.0 1 36.2
1954 2 4.73 4.7 2 9.5 4 22.4
1955 3 4.33 4.3 3 13.0 9 18.7
1956 4 4.02 4.0 4 16.1 16 16.2
1957 5 6.87 6.9 5 34.4 25 47.2
1958 6 6.14 6.1 6 36.8 36 37.7
1959 7 7.06 7.1 7 49.4 49 49.8
1960 8 7.6 7.6 8 60.8 64 57.8
1961 9 3.97 4.0 9 35.7 81 15.8
1962 10 6.27 6.3 10 62.7 100 39.3
1963 11 5.98 6.0 11 65.8 121 35.8
1964 12 5.98 6.0 12 71.8 144 35.8
1965 13 5.81 5.8 13 75.5 169 33.8
1966 14 7.09 7.1 14 99.3 196 50.3
1967 15 5.86 5.9 15 87.9 225 34.3
1968 16 5.73 5.7 16 91.7 256 32.8
1969 17 8.5 8.5 17 144.5 289 72.3
1970 18 6.24 6.2 18 112.3 324 38.9
1971 19 5.69 5.7 19 108.1 361 32.4
1972 20 4.96 5.0 20 99.2 400 24.6
1973 21 5.96 6.0 21 125.2 441 35.5
1974 22 4.72 4.7 22 103.8 484 22.3
1975 23 5.19 5.2 23 119.4 529 26.9
1976 24 8.86 8.9 24 212.6 576 78.5
1977 25 12.51 12.5 25 312.8 625 156.5
1978 26 6.68 6.7 26 173.7 676 44.6
1979 27 8.62 8.6 27 232.7 729 74.3
1980 28 11.74 11.7 28 328.7 784 137.8
1981 29 10.67 10.7 29 309.4 841 113.8
1982 30 10.38 10.4 30 311.4 900 107.7
1983 31 12.23 12.2 31 379.1 961 149.6
1984 32 7.08 7.1 32 226.6 1024 50.1
1985 33 5.34 5.3 33 176.2 1089 28.5
1986 34 7.28 7.3 34 247.5 1156 53.0
1987 35 8.42 8.4 35 294.7 1225 70.9
1988 36 6.9 6.9 36 248.4 1296 47.6
1989 37 6.27 6.3 37 232.0 1369 39.3
1990 38 7.72 7.7 38 293.4 1444 59.6
1991 39 4.71 4.7 39 183.7 1521 22.2
1992 40 2.85 2.9 40 114.0 1600 8.1
1993 41 5.81 6 41 238.2 1681 33.8
1994 42 6.02 6.0 42 252.8 1764 36.2
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1995 43 7.5 7.5 43 322.5 1849 56.3

1996 44 8.01 8.0 44 352.4 1936 64.2
1997 45 7.08 7.1 45 318.6 2025 50.1
1998 46 10.81 10.8 46 497.3 2116 116.9
sumatoria 318.21 1081 7887.6 33511 2416.4
Cálculo de "a":
∑ y ∑ x 2 −∑ xy ∑ x
a= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 5.73+0.051 x
Es decir:
T = 5.73+0.051 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.096
Hipotesis:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.164
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 8.98 9.0 1 9.0 1 80.6
1954 2 5.11 5.1 2 10.2 4 26.1
1955 3 5.02 5.0 3 15.1 9 25.2
1956 4 5 5.0 4 20.0 16 25.0
1957 5 8.92 8.9 5 44.6 25 79.6
1958 6 8.89 8.9 6 53.3 36 79.0
1959 7 8.38 8.4 7 58.7 49 70.2
1960 8 9.37 9.4 8 75.0 64 87.8
1961 9 5.69 5.7 9 51.2 81 32.4
1962 10 7.12 7.1 10 71.2 100 50.7
1963 11 9.55 9.6 11 105.1 121 91.2
1964 12 8.04 8.0 12 96.5 144 64.6
1965 13 6.7 6.7 13 87.1 169 44.9
1966 14 8.36 8.4 14 117.0 196 69.9
1967 15 7.66 7.7 15 114.9 225 58.7
1968 16 6.3 6.3 16 100.8 256 39.7
1969 17 10.86 10.9 17 184.6 289 117.9
1970 18 8.4 8.4 18 151.2 324 70.6
1971 19 5.9 5.9 19 112.1 361 34.8
1972 20 6.94 6.9 20 138.8 400 48.2
1973 21 8.13 8.1 21 170.7 441 66.1
1974 22 6.47 6.5 22 142.3 484 41.9
1975 23 5.24 5.2 23 120.5 529 27.5
1976 24 8.93 8.9 24 214.3 576 79.7
1977 25 16.79 16.8 25 419.8 625 281.9
1978 26 8.93 8.9 26 232.2 676 79.7
1979 27 9.8 9.8 27 264.6 729 96.0
1980 28 4.85 4.9 28 135.8 784 23.5
1981 29 13.52 13.5 29 392.1 841 182.8
1982 30 12.66 12.7 30 379.8 900 160.3
1983 31 10.36 10.4 31 321.2 961 107.3
1984 32 6.31 6.3 32 201.9 1024 39.8
1985 33 6.16 6.2 33 203.3 1089 37.9
1986 34 8.33 8.3 34 283.2 1156 69.4
1987 35 12.26 12.3 35 429.1 1225 150.3
1988 36 8.96 9.0 36 322.6 1296 80.3
1989 37 7.48 7.5 37 276.8 1369 56.0
1990 38 10.76 10.8 38 408.9 1444 115.8
1991 39 5.65 5.7 39 220.4 1521 31.9
1992 40 3.39 3.4 40 135.6 1600 11.5
1993 41 8.47 8 41 347.3 1681 71.7
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1994 42 9.45 9.5 42 396.9 1764 89.3

1995 43 8.93 8.9 43 384.0 1849 79.7
1996 44 9.76 9.8 44 429.4 1936 95.3
1997 45 16.69 16.7 45 751.1 2025 278.6
1998 46 13.33 13.3 46 613.2 2116 177.7
sumatoria 392.8 1081 9813.1 33511 3729.0
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
6.851+0.072X
Es decir:
T = 6.851+0.072 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.112
Hipotesis:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.351
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

1953 1 10.02 10.0 1 10.0 1 100.4
1954 2 6.62 6.6 2 13.2 4 43.8
1955 3 6.44 6.4 3 19.3 9 41.5
1956 4 6.17 6.2 4 24.7 16 38.1
1957 5 8.75 8.8 5 43.8 25 76.6
1958 6 10.21 10.2 6 61.3 36 104.2
1959 7 10.66 10.7 7 74.6 49 113.6
1960 8 12.5 12.5 8 100.0 64 156.3
1961 9 8.09 8.1 9 72.8 81 65.4
1962 10 6.64 6.6 10 66.4 100 44.1
1963 11 13.47 13.5 11 148.2 121 181.4
1964 12 6.48 6.5 12 77.8 144 42.0
1965 13 8.81 8.8 13 114.5 169 77.6
1966 14 8.07 8.1 14 113.0 196 65.1
1967 15 7.73 7.7 15 116.0 225 59.8
1968 16 8.06 8.1 16 129.0 256 65.0
1969 17 11.35 11.4 17 193.0 289 128.8
1970 18 9.07 9.1 18 163.3 324 82.3
1971 19 7.6 7.6 19 144.4 361 57.8
1972 20 7.62 7.6 20 152.4 400 58.1
1973 21 8.01 8.0 21 168.2 441 64.2
1974 22 8.41 8.4 22 185.0 484 70.7
1975 23 4.94 4.9 23 113.6 529 24.4
1976 24 9.03 9.0 24 216.7 576 81.5
1977 25 17.4 17.4 25 435.0 625 302.8
1978 26 11.87 11.9 26 308.6 676 140.9
1979 27 11.25 11.3 27 303.8 729 126.6
1980 28 11.78 11.8 28 329.8 784 138.8
1981 29 9.4 9.4 29 272.6 841 88.4
1982 30 14.87 14.9 30 446.1 900 221.1
1983 31 9.49 9.5 31 294.2 961 90.1
1984 32 11.31 11.3 32 361.9 1024 127.9
1985 33 8.5 8.5 33 280.5 1089 72.3
1986 34 10.51 10.5 34 357.3 1156 110.5
1987 35 14.19 14.2 35 496.7 1225 201.4
1988 36 6.43 6.4 36 231.5 1296 41.3
1989 37 9.18 9.2 37 339.7 1369 84.3
1990 38 10.43 10.4 38 396.3 1444 108.8
1991 39 8.6 8.6 39 335.4 1521 74.0
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
1992 40 4.16 4.2 40 166.4 1600 17.3

1993 41 18.84 19 41 772.4 1681 354.9
1994 42 16.38 16.4 42 688.0 1764 268.3
1995 43 7.87 7.9 43 338.4 1849 61.9
1996 44 10.91 10.9 44 480.0 1936 119.0
1997 45 46.67 46.7 45 2100.2 2025 2178.1
1998 46 11.52 11.5 46 529.9 2116 132.7
sumatoria 486.31 1081 12785.7 33511 6903.8
Cálculo de "a":
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Cálculo de "b":
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
y = 6.637+0.167 x
Es decir:
T = 6.637 + 0.167 t
n ∑ xy −∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y −( ∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.129
Hipotesis:
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Cálculo del "tc":
r √ n−2
√1−r 2
Cálculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V = N -2 = 44
Decisión:
tc = 2.552
tt = 1.96
Entonces:

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
ANÁLISIS DE CORRELACIÓN Y REGRESIÓN
1.. REGRESIÓN LINEAL SIMPLE
a. Ecuación general: y=a+bx

Donde:
y = Caudal (m3/s)
x = Precipitación
b. Calculo de los parametros a, b, r, r2
n meses y x xy x2 y2
1 Enero 11.93 85.34 1018.19 7282.32 142.36
2 Febrero 14.88 91.49 1360.97 8370.51 221.28
3 Marzo 14.96 127.51 1907.60 16260.07 223.80
4 Abril 11.55 74.10 855.86 5490.49 133.41
5 Mayo 6.92 17.58 121.71 309.22 47.91
6 Junio 4.78 1.77 8.44 3.12 22.82
7 Julio 4.24 0.29 1.23 0.08 17.96
8 Agosto 4.38 1.93 8.44 3.71 19.22
9 Septiembre 4.94 9.21 45.50 84.84 24.41
10 Octubre 6.92 35.78 247.49 1279.96 47.85
11 Noviembre 8.54 42.47 362.62 1803.37 72.92
12 Diciembre 10.57 57.95 612.64 3358.19 111.77
Sumatoria 104.606958 545.412774 6550.71 44245.89 1085.70
Número de pares de datos: n = 12
Calculo de a:
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Reemplazando valores: a = 4.5212
Calculo de b:
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Reemplazando valores: b = 0.0923

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
y = 4.5212 + 0.0923 x
Calculo del coeficiente de correlacion (r) y determinación (r 2):
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y (∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.9540
c. Parametros de Significancia: Prueba "t"
Hipotesis:
Ho : r = 0; No hay correlación
Ha : r ¿ 0; Si hay correlación
Calculo de tc:
r √ n−2
t c=
√1−r 2
Calculo de tt:
a/2 = 0.025
V=N-2 = 10
Decisión:
tc = 14.407
tt = 2.228
Como: ltcl > tt
Entonces: Ha : r ≠ 0
Por lo tanto existe correlación entre las variables "P" y "Q"

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
2.. REGRESIÓN LINEAL NO SIMPLE
REGRESIÓN INVERSA
a. Ecuación general: Q =a + b/P
Donde:
Q = Caudal (m3/s)
P = Precipitación
n meses y=Q P x = 1/P xy x2 y2

1 Ene 11.931 85.337 0.0117 0.1398 0.0001 142.3604
2 Feb 14.876 91.491 0.0109 0.1626 0.0001 221.2814
3 Mar 14.960 127.515 0.0078 0.1173 0.0001 223.7952
4 Abr 11.550 74.098 0.0135 0.1559 0.0002 133.411
5 May 6.921 17.585 0.0569 0.3936 0.0032 47.90706
6 Jun 4.777 1.767 0.5658 2.7030 0.3201 22.82292
7 Jul 4.238 0.291 3.4328 14.5476 11.7844 17.95883
8 Ago 4.384 1.926 0.5192 2.2762 0.2696 19.22168
9 Sep 4.940 9.211 0.1086 0.5363 0.0118 24.40575
10 Oct 6.918 35.777 0.0280 0.1934 0.0008 47.85331
11 Nov 8.539 42.466 0.0235 0.2011 0.0006 72.91675
12 Dic 10.572 57.950 0.0173 0.1824 0.0003 111.7663
Sumatoria 104.607 545.413 4.7960 21.6093 12.39121 1085.701
Número de pares de datos: n= 12
Calculo de "a"
2
a=
∑ y ∑ x −∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Reemplazando valores: a= 9.488
Calculo de b
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Reemplazando valores: b= -1.928
y = 9.488 - 1.928 x
Por lo tanto:
Q = 9.488 - 1.928 / P
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Calculo del coeficiente de correlacion (r) y determinación (r 2)
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y (∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2
Reemplazando valores: r= -0.473

r2 = 0.224
Hipotesis
Ho : r = 0;No hay correlación

Calculo de tc
r √ n−2
t c=
√1−r2
Reemplazando valores: tc = -1.699
Calculo de tt
a/2 = 0.025
V=N-2 = 10
Decisión
ItcI = 1.699
tt = 2.228
Como: ltcl ≤ tt
Entonces:Ho : r = 0
Por lo tanto no existe correlación entre las variables "P" y "Q"

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
REGRESIÓN POTENCIAL
a. Ecuación general: Q =a*Pb
Donde:
Q = Caudal (m3/s)
P = Precipitación
n meses Q P y = lnQ x = lnP xy x2 y2

1 Ene 11.931 85.337 2.479 4.447 11.024 19.772 6.15
2 Feb 14.876 91.491 2.700 4.516 12.193 20.396 7.29
3 Mar 14.960 127.515 2.705 4.848 13.116 23.505 7.32
4 Abr 11.550 74.098 2.447 4.305 10.534 18.536 5.99
5 May 6.921 17.585 1.935 2.867 5.547 8.220 3.74
6 Jun 4.777 1.767 1.564 0.570 0.891 0.324 2.45
7 Jul 4.238 0.291 1.444 -1.233 -1.781 1.521 2.09
8 Ago 4.384 1.926 1.478 0.655 0.969 0.430 2.18
9 Sep 4.940 9.211 1.597 2.220 3.547 4.930 2.55
10 Oct 6.918 35.777 1.934 3.577 6.919 12.797 3.74
11 Nov 8.539 42.466 2.145 3.749 8.040 14.053 4.60
12 Dic 10.572 57.950 2.358 4.060 9.573 16.480 5.56
Sumatoria 104.607 545.413 24.7859 34.581 80.570 140.966 53.65
Calculo de a
a=
∑ y ∑ x 2−∑ xy ∑ x
2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )

ea = 4.169
Calculo de b
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Reemplazando valores: b= 0.221
y = 1.425 - 0.222 x
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Por lo tanto:
Q = 4.159*P0.222
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y (∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.824
Hipotesis
Calculo de tc
r √ n−2
t c=
√1−r2
Calculo de tt
a/2 = 0.025
V=N-2 = 10
Decisión:
ItcI = 6.838
tt = 2.228
Como: ltcl > tt

FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
REGRESIÓN EXPONENCIAL
a. Ecuación general: Q =a*Pb
Donde:
Q = Caudal (m3/s)
P = Precipitación
n meses Q x=P y = lnQ xy x2 y2

1 Ene 11.93 85.34 2.479 211.565 7282.32 6.15
2 Feb 14.88 91.49 2.700 246.999 8370.51 7.29
3 Mar 14.96 127.51 2.705 344.975 16260.07 7.32
4 Abr 11.55 74.10 2.447 181.297 5490.49 5.99
5 May 6.92 17.58 1.935 34.020 309.22 3.74
6 Jun 4.78 1.77 1.564 2.764 3.12 2.45
7 Jul 4.24 0.29 1.444 0.421 0.08 2.09
8 Ago 4.38 1.93 1.478 2.847 3.71 2.18
9 Sep 4.94 9.21 1.597 14.714 84.84 2.55
10 Oct 6.92 35.78 1.934 69.194 1279.96 3.74
11 Nov 8.54 42.47 2.145 91.075 1803.37 4.60
12 Dic 10.57 57.95 2.358 136.658 3358.19 5.56
Sumatoria 104.607 545.413 24.7859 1336.527 44245.89 53.65
Calculo de a
∑ y ∑ x 2 −∑ xy ∑ x
a= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )

ea = 4.831
Calculo de b
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
b= 2
n ∑ x 2 −( ∑ x )
Reemplazando valores: b= 0.011
y = 1.576 - 0.011 x
FIC - HIDROLOGÍA
Por lo tanto:
Q = 4.835 e0.011 X
n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ (n∑ x − (∑ x ) )( n∑ y (∑ y ) )
2 2 2 2

r2 = 0.923
Hipotesis
Calculo de tc
r √ n−2
t c=
√1−r2
Calculo de tt
a/2 = 0.025
V=N-2 = 10
Decisión
ItcI = 10.912
tt = 2.228
Como: ltcl > tt

REGRESIÓN LINEAL
CAUDAL CHANCOS (m3/s)
16.00
f(x) = 0.0923203487x + 4.5211883549
R² = 0.9540370339
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00
PRECIPITACIÓN CHANCOS (mm)
REGRESIÓN INVERSA
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
f(x) = - 1.9283789704x + 9.4879561845

R² = 0.2240908157
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0.000
0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 3.0000 3.5000 4.0000
1/P
REGRESIÓN EXPONENCIAL
16.00
f(x) = 4.8305647737 exp( 0.0107924488 x )
R² = 0.9225232767
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00
PRECIPITACIÓN CHANCOS (mm)
REGRESIÓN POTENCIAL
16.000
Caudal Chancos (m3/s)
14.000
12.000
f(x) = 4.168952785 x^0.2213327616
R² = 0.8238325302
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0.000
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000
Precipitación Chancos (mm)
120.3 145.0 122.8 96.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
145.5 24.3 79.0 0.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 0.0
163.4 133.5 48.6 45.6 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
21.3 113.6 191.4 43.1 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
24.3 185.0 192.0 55.9 9.1 1.8 0.0 0.0
11.7 70.5 333.3
98.4 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

43.7 107.0 46.2 161.0 76.5 3.6 0.0 0.0
79.0 164.0 115.4 94.2 24.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
17.6 19.4 158.0 151.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
94.2 189.6 60.3 22.5 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
105.1 91.7 175.3 107.5 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
47.4 97.2 72.9 96.0 34.1 0.0 0.0 9.1
40.7 40.1 120.3 57.7 37.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
91.7 35.0 93.0 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
41.3 151.9 208.9 17.0 12.8 0.0 5.5 0.0
69.3 11.6 83.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7
24.9 72.9 89.3 78.4 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
80.8 43.7 96.0 38.9 35.8 11.5 2.4 13.4
22.5 94.8 216.9 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
158.6 110.0 179.2 77.2 16.4 0.0 0.0 9.7
79.0 49.2 142.2 72.9 20.7 0.0 5.5 1.2
110.0 100.9 75.9 31.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
154.9 121.5 209.6 94.2 13.4 0.0 0.0 12.8
95.4 120.3 68.1 105.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
62.0 201.7 89.3 35.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
101.4 137.3 10.9 33.4 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
66.2 54.7 135.5 129.4 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.0
49.3 24.3 108.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
54.0 190.1 170.7 41.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
75.9 22.5 55.3 73.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
122.1 59.8 150.0 162.9 110.1 19.4 0.0 0.0
77.3 71.0 245.1 71.5 30.4 0.0 0.0 9.0
10.3 82.1 99.0 13.4 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 26.7 42.5 32.2
7.3 60.8 49.2 18.3
6.7 24.9 13.3 9.1
18.2 3.4 3.0 7.3
0.0 44.4 57.7 33.4
8.5 44.3 6.1 9.1

0.0 40.1 74.0 85.0
4.9 14.6 19.4 21.3
0.0 0.0 43.1 121.5
0.0 8.5 46.2 10.3
0.0 27.9 77.7 106.3
0.0 17.0 6.7 3.0
49.2 26.1 49.3 49.2
7.9 63.8 40.7 66.8
0.0 99.0 1.8 3.0
7.9 60.7 7.9 41.3
0.0 28.6 43.7 142.1
47.4 34.7 41.5 69.9
13.9 33.4 45.0 28.6
11.6 0.0 52.2 68.0
19.5 62.0 67.5 93.6
4.9 5.5 17.9 7.9
22.5 26.8 45.5 42.5
0.0 0.0 14.8 6.1
0.0 3.6 57.1 75.4
32.2 29.2 18.8 27.9
24.3 3.2 42.5 31.8
0.0 108.2 87.5 68.7
7.3 58.3 129.5 10.3
0.0 128.2 147.1 86.8
6.1 27.3 8.3 117.9
7.4 69.9 32.8 68.1
67.5 0.0 12.2 71.1

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FIC - HIDROLOGÍA

4 . COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS - ESTACIÓN HIDROMÉTRICOS DE CHANCOS

1.. DATOS INCOMPLETOS (Completar los meses,Enero,Noviembre y Diciembre)

CAUDAL MENSUAL CHANCOS (m3/s)

Enero (Chancos -Huaraz)

Tenemos en la Tabla: tt = 2.052

Como: ltcl > tt

Por lo tanto puedo completar los datos del mes de

y = -0.0019x2 + 0.8816x + 11.182

Noviembre (Chancos - Llanganuco)

Año Chan( y ) Qr ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

Tenemos en la Tabla: tt = 2.048

Como: ltcl > tt

Por lo tanto puedo completar los datos del mes de

DICIEMBRE (Chancos - Parón)

Año Chan( y )Qr. ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

Tenemos en la Tabla: tt = 2.045

Como: ltcl > tt

Por lo tanto puedo completar los datos del mes de

3.. CAUDAL MENSUAL DE CHANCOS (m3/s) - (DATOS COMPLETADOS)

4.6 ANÁLISIS DE CONSISTENCIA

AÑOS CHANCOS CONTEO

Oct-56 3.4 46 Oct-60 14.6 94 Oct-64 17.0 142

Jan-65 40.7 145 Jan-70 80.8 205 Jan-75 154.9 265

1969 1974 1979

Jan-80 49.3 325 Jan-85 10.3 385

nca del Santa)

COMPLETACIÓN DE DATOS - ESTACIÓN HIDROMÉTRICOS DE CHANCOS

1.. DATOS INCOMPLETOS (Completar los meses,Abril, Mayo,Junio)

CAUDAL MENSUAL CHANCOS (m3/s)

Año Chan( y ) Qr ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

JUNIO (Chancos - Querococha)

Año Chan( y )Qr. ( x ) a. Regresión y coeficiente de determinación( r 2 )

3.. CAUDAL MENSUAL DE CHANCOS (m3/s) - (DATOS COMPLETADOS)

4.6 ANÁLISIS DE CONSISTENCIA

AÑOS CHANCOS CONTEO

Jan-65 6.10 145 Jan-70 11.12 205 Jan-75 11.72 265

Dec-69 11.35 204 Dec-74 8.41 264 Dec-79 11.25 324

Jan-80 12.31 325 Jan-85 11.46 385 Jan-90 10.67 445

Nov-84 6.31 383 Nov-89 7.48 443 Nov-94 9.45 503

Jan-95 12.36 505

140 f(x) = 27.9733257158 exp( 0.0077830536 x )

120 f(x) = 0.4603208303x + 29.4713715422

120 f(x) = 0.5287580144 x^1.0530585525

80 f(x) = 30.166360654 ln(x) - 71.1433877532

4.1 MÉTODO ESTADÍSTICO

DATOS HIDROMETRICOS DE LA ESTACIÓN DE CHANCOS - COMPLETADOS (m3/s)

A.- CONSISTENCIA A LA MEDIA

Cálculo de la media y la desviación estandar para cada periodo:

Periodo dudoso: 1953 -1958 (Periodo 1)

Media del periodo 1 y 2

n1, n22 Tamaño de cada periodo (Meses)

Cálculo de la desviación estandar ponderada Sp

Calculando tenemos: Sp = 53.663

Cálculo de la desviación estandar de la diferencia de promedios Sd

Calculando tenemos: Sd = 6.9917

Por lo tanto: tc = -0.266

Tenemos en la Tabla que: tt = 1.96

Como: ltcl ≤ tt ………………OK! (ACEPTO)

4.2 ANÁLISIS DE TENDENCIA

1 . TENDENCIA A LA MEDIA ( Tm) Tm = Am + B m t Ecuación Lineal Simple

AÑO TIEMPO t(años) Q(m3/s) ENERO y = Tm x=t xy x2 y2

Número de pares de datos: N= 33