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One Team, One Stat: Blazers

lacking shots off the catch


By NBA.com Global on Oct 07, 2018 06:10 AM

PORTLAND, OR - APRIL 8: Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland


Trail Blazers is seen against the Utah Jazz on April 8, 2017 at
the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Sam
Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)
By John Schuhmann, NBA.com
NBA.com's John Schuhmann gets you ready for the 2018-19 season with a key stat for
each team in the league and shows you why it matters. Today, we look at the Portland
Trail Blazers, who shoot off the dribble too much.

THE STAT
The Blazers were the only team that recorded assists on less than half of their field
goals last season.

THE CONTEXT
The Blazers also ranked in the bottom five in both ball movement (295 passes per 24
minutes of possession - 29th in the league) and player movement (10.2 miles traveled
per 24 minutes of possession - 26th), according to Second Spectrum tracking.

There's no correlation between ball or player movement and offensive efficiency. In fact,
five of the top eight teams in ball movement ranked in the bottom 10 in points scored
per 100 possessions. The only team that threw fewer passes per 24 minutes of
possession than the Blazers was the Houston Rockets, who ranked second offensively.
Two other top five offenses - Cleveland and Minnesota - ranked in the bottom five in ball
movement.

But the Blazers' guard-heavy offense doesn't get them the best kinds of shots. Last
season, only 46 percent of their jump shots, the league's lowest rate, were off the catch.
They ranked third in pull-up effective field goal percentage (45.9 percent) and 19th in
catch-and-shoot effective field goal percentage (52.0 percent), but still scored about
seven more points per 100 shots on the catch-and-shoot jumpers.

The Blazers led the league with 26.8 pull-up jumpers per game, with C.J. McCollum
(9.3) and Damian Lillard (8.9) ranking fourth and sixth amongst individuals. The pair
ranked 10th and sixth in pull-up effective field goal percentage among the 37 players
who attempted at least five per game. There's clear value to having guards who can
shoot off the dribble and force opposing big men to venture farther from the basket than
they'd prefer.

But both Lillard and McCollum shot more effectively on catch-and-shoot jumpers, and
some of their teammates did too.
Catch-and-shoot jumpers are much more likely to be 3-point shots. League-wide last
season, 81 percent of catch-and-shoot jumpers and only 34 percent of pull-up jumpers
were from beyond the arc. Three is greater than two and a catch-and-shoot 3-point
attempt is worth much more (1.12 points per attempt) than a pull-up two (0.80).

The talent of Lillard and McCollum make up some of that difference, but not all of it. The
Blazers had a top-five offense in 2013-14 and they remained in the top 10 for two more
seasons, including their first ('15-16) without LaMarcus Aldridge. They've been running
one of the more unique offenses in the league, accentuating the skills of their two
guards.

But they've slipped (in points scored per 100 possessions vs. the league average) in
each of the last four seasons. And it may be time for some new wrinkles that generate
more shots off the catch.

Note: The above table is based on true possession counts. Other efficiency stats here
are based on possession estimates (typically higher than true possession counts).

BLAZERS NOTES - GENERAL


1. Had the league's best winning percentage (they were 33-1) when leading by at least
15 points.

2. Led the league in time of possession percentage, having the ball for 46 percent of all
minutes (league average was 43 percent), according to Second Spectrum tracking.

3. Were the first top-three seed to be swept in the first round since the first round went
to a best-of-seven format in 2003.

4. In the regular season, they were at their best (plus-5.4 points per 100 possessions) in
the first quarter. In the playoffs, they were outscored by 25.9 points per 100
possessions in the first quarter. That was the worst first-quarter NetRtg for any team in
any round of the postseason.
BLAZERS NOTES - OFFENSE
1. Led the league with 11.5 screen assists per game.

2. Ranked last with 8.1 fast break points per game. Only 10.5 percent of their
possessions, the lowest rate in the league, were in transition, according to Synergy
tracking. Also saw the biggest drop in points per possession in transition from 2016-17
(1.15) to '17-18 (1.02).

3. Saw the league's biggest post-break drop in 3-point percentage, from 37.9 percent
(third in the league) before the break to 33.9 percent (28th) after it.

4. One of three teams (Indiana and Milwaukee were the others) that had a better
effective field goal percentage in the playoffs (51.2 percent) than they did in the regular
season (51.1 percent). All three lost in the first round.

5. At the time, their free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 0.173 in the first round was the lowest
mark for any team in a playoff series over the last 20 years. Then New Orleans had a
lower rate (0.165) in the conference semis.

BLAZERS NOTES - DEFENSE


1. Were the league's fourth most improved defensive team, allowing 104.2 points per
100 possessions (eighth in the league) last season after allowing 107.8 (21st) in 2016-
17.

2. Opponents shot just 55 percent in the restricted area, the lowest mark by a wide
margin in the regular season. In the playoffs, they allowed New Orleans to shoot 72
percent in the restricted area, with 38 percent of the Pelicans' shots coming from there.
Both of those were the highest opponents marks of the postseason.

3. Have ranked in the bottom six in opponent turnover percentage in each of the last six
seasons.

4. Ratio of opponent 3-point attempts to mid-range attempts was 1.5, the second lowest
mark in the league. (The league average was 1.8.)

5. Allowed 19.1 points per game from pick-and-roll ball-handlers, second most in the
league. Opponents recorded assists on just 53 percent of their field goals, the league's
second lowest opponent rate.

6. Saw the biggest increase in DefRtg from the regular season (104.2 points allowed
per 100 possessions - eighth in the league) to the playoffs (114.7 - 16th).

BLAZERS NOTES - LINEUPS


1. One of two teams (Washington was the other) that had more than one lineup that
played at least 400 minutes together. Both lineups - Lillard, McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu
and Jusuf Nurkic, with either Maurice Harkless or Evan Turner - were similarly
successful, outscoring their opponents by 7.5 and 7.2 points per 100 possessions,
respectively.

2. Those two lineups recorded assists on 56 percent of their field goals (a rate which
would still have ranked 28th). All other lineups recorded assists on just 47 percent of
their buckets. The team's assist percentage was highest with Nurkic on the floor.

3. Outscored their opponents by 4.8 points per 100 possessions with Lillard and
McCollum on the floor together, the pairing's best mark in McCollum's three seasons as
a starter. Were also a plus-4.8 in 774 minutes with Lillard on the floor without McCollum.
But they were outscored by 4.7 points per 100 possessions in 1,027 minutes with
McCollum on the floor without Lillard.

4. Outscored their opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions in 233 minutes with
Lillard, McCollum and Shabazz Napier on the floor together.

BLAZERS NOTES - INDIVIDUAL


1. Al-Farouq Aminu averaged 17.3 points per game in the playoffs, up from 9.3 in the
regular season. That was the biggest jump among 175 players who played in at least
four postseason games. He led the postseason with 3.3 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per
game.

2. In the regular season, Aminu took 58 percent of his shots from 3-point range. That
was up from 46 percent the season prior and the 12th highest rate among 180 players
with at least 500 field goal attempts.
3. Seth Curry didn't play last season, but still has the second best 3-point percentage
(43.2 percent) among 231 players with at least 300 3-point attempts over the last three
seasons, just ahead of his brother Stephen (43.1 percent).

4. Maurice Harkless registered career-high marks in effective field goal percentage


(57.7 percent) and true shooting percentage (59.6 percent) last season, but his minutes
per game dropped from 28.9 (in 2016-17) to 21.4. That was the 13th biggest drop
among 260 players who played in at least 40 games both seasons.

5. Damian Lillard ranked third in both free throw percentage and total free throws made.
He became just the eighth (different) player in NBA history to shoot 90 percent or better
on at least seven free throw attempts per game in a single season.

6. Lillard led the league with 12.4 points per game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler.

7. In the playoffs, Lillard had an effective field goal percentage of 41.5 percent, the third
worst mark among 92 players with at least 50 postseason field goal attempts.

8. C.J. McCollumled the league in total distance traveled (218 miles). A Portland player
has led the league for all five seasons for which we have full-season tracking data, and
it has been McCollum for each of the last three.

9. McCollum committed a turnover just 3.9 percent of the time on drives, the third lowest
rate among 102 players who averaged at least five drives per game.

10. McCollum scored just 0.91 points per possession in transition, the lowest rate
among 41 players who averaged at least three transition possessions per game in 40
games or more.

11. Lillard (9-for-17) and McCollum (7-for-20) were two of four players with at least
seven field goals to tie or take the lead in the final minute of the fourth quarter or
overtime.

12. Lillard (53.8 percent) and McCollum (53.2 percent) ranked 54th and 56th,
respectively, in field goal percentage in the restricted area among the 56 players with at
least 100 restricted-area attempts.

13. Jusuf Nurkic had an effective field goal percentage of 56 percent after the All-Star
break, up from 48 percent before the break. That was the fourth biggest jump among
players with at least 250 field goal attempts before the break and 150 after it.

14. Nurkic had a an assist-turnover ratio of 0.78, the second worst mark among the top
50 players in usage rate.
15. Lillard had 190 assists to Nurkic. That was the third highest total (behind Westbrook-
Adams and Harden-Capela) from one player to a single teammate last season.

16. Nik Stauskas averaged just 12.8 minutes per game (with Philadelphia and Brooklyn)
last season, down from 27.4 (with Philly) in 2016-17. That was the second biggest drop
among 260 players who played in at least 40 games each season.

17. Evan Turner took 62 percent of his shots from between the restricted area and 3-
point range, the highest rate among 180 players with at least 500 field goal attempts.

John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his
archive here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner
Broadcasting.

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