Sei sulla pagina 1di 8

PROBABILITY PROJECT

WITH AND WITH O UT REP LACEM ENT – 3 CO LO RED STARS / 3 DRAWING S

THE PROBLEM:
THREE STUDENTS WERE GIVEN A BAG OF 9 STARS, THE BAG CONTAINED 3
COLORS ALL SAME SIZE AND SHAPE. THERE WERE 3 RED, 3 BLUE AND 3
GREEN. IF THE STUDENTS WERE TO REACH IN AND GRAB ONE STAR AT A
TIME, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY FOR THEM TO GET ONE OF EACH
COLOR?

PART ONE: WITH REPLACEMENTS


FIRST LET’S START WITH THE FORMULA THAT WILL BE USED TO HELP
SOLVE THE QUESTION:

THE FORMULA:
P(E)=Number of Possible combinations / Number of Sample size

R+ R + R = 3 Red
B+ B + B = 3 Blue
G+ G + G = 3 Green
9 colored Stars

P=
P(e)
P(s) = 3 colors
9 total stars
= 13 Samp
SO, LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT WE DO KNOW:

Red star

Red star Blue star

Green Star

Red star
Red Stars Blue star Blue star

Here we have all the


Green Star

Red star
Green star Blue star

possibilities that can Green Star

Red star

happen when we
Red star Blue star

Green Star

grab a star from the


Red star
Bag of Stars Blue star
Blue Stars Blue star
Green Star

bag and replace it Green star


Red star
Blue star
Green Star

back. Red star


Red star
Blue star
Green Star

Red star

Green Stars Blue Star Blue star


Green Star

Red star
Green star Blue star
Green Star
THE PROBIBILITIES FOR EACH COMBONATIONS

9 STARS
3 COLORS/3 DRAWS PROBABILITIES
STARTING W/ THE RED STAR
DRA DRAW DRAW FRACTION DECIMAL % OF
W #1 #2 #3 FORM FORM PROBABILITY
RRR * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
1/3 * 1/3

RRB * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3

RRG * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3
* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
RBR 1/3 * 1/3

RBB * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3

RBG 1/3 * 1/3


* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

RGR * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3

RGB 1/3 * 1/3


* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


RGG 1/3 * 1/3
STARTING W/ THE BLUE STAR
BRR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
1/3 * 1/3 1/3
* = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
BRB 1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BRG 1/3 * 1/3


*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

BBR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BBB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BBG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BGR 1/3 * 1/3


*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

BGB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BGG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3
STARTING W/ THE GREEN STAR
GRR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GRB 1/3 * 1/3


*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

GRG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GBR 1/3 * 1/3


*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

GBB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GBG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GGR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GGB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GGG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%


1/3 * 1/3 1/3
27/27 0.999 99.90%

let’s review what the question is asking:


If the students were to reach in and grab one Star at a time, what is
the probability for them to get one of each color?

If we look back at the chart,


There are 2 chances to draw 3 stars, one of each color, in the 3 color group.
Since there are 1 in 3 chance to pull the correct color and we draw 3 times
There is a 6/27 chance to pull a star of each color.

= .222

2+2+2
= =
Likely to get 3 stars in one star of
= 22.2% Each color with replacement

3x3x3
PART TWO: WITHOUT REPLACEMENTS
FIRST LET’S START WITH THE FORMULA THAT WILL BE
USED TO HELP SOLVE THE QUESTION:

Here we have the same scenario:


THREE STUDENTS WERE GIVEN A BAG OF 9 STARS, THE BAG CONTAINED 3
COLORS ALL SAME SIZE AND SHAPE. THERE WERE 3 RED, 3 BLUE AND 3
GREEN. IF THE STUDENTS WERE TO REACH IN AND GRAB ONE STAR AT A
TIME, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY FOR THEM TO GET ONE OF EACH
COLOR?
We now know the probability of drawing one of each color IF we place the star back into the
bag. BUT, what is the likelihood of withdrawing a star of each color IF the star is NOT replaced
after each draw?

Draw 1

= 9 starting
+
+
+
Draw 2

= 8 left
+
+
+
Sample
Draw 3

= 7 stars remain
Here we have all
Red star

Red star Blue star

Green Star
1
the possibilities that
Red Stars Blue star
Red star
Blue star
7
23
2
can happen when
Green Star

Red star 77
Green star Blue star 7
we grab a star from Green Star

Red star
3
3
7
the bag and DONT
Red star Blue star

Green Star 7
Red star 3
replace it.
Bag of Stars Blue Stars Blue star Blue star
Green Star 7
Red star
Green star Blue star
Green Star
3
Red star 27
Blue star
Red star
Green Star 7
Green Stars Blue Star
Red star
Blue star
32
Green Star
77
Red star 2
Green star Blue star
Green Star 72
7
THE PROBIBILITIES FOR EACH COMBONATIONS

Here is another the tree diagram and what it looks like when written out. Notice how the sample
size (the denominator) changes as each star is removed. As the amount in the bag lessons so does
the probability of getting the same color!
Questions to think about while looking at the results:
• Do you notice any patterns?
• Can you predict the outcome of the next set?

9 STARS
3 COLORS/3 DRAWS
without replacement PROBABILITIES
STARTING W/ THE RED STAR

DRAW DRAW FRACTION DECIMAL % OF


DRAW #1 #2 #3 FORM FORM PROBABILITY
= 6/504 0.0119 1.20%
RRR 3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7
RRB 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RRG 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RBR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RBB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RBG 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
RGR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RGB 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
RGG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
STARTING W/ THE BLUE STAR
BRR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BRB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BRG 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
BBR 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BBB 3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7 = 6/504 0.0119 1.20%
BBG 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BGR 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
BGB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BGG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 100.8%
STARTING W/ THE GREEN STAR
GRR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%

GRB 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%


GRG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GBR 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
GBB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GBG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GGR 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GGB 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GGG 3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7 = 6/504 0.0119 1.20%
504/504 0.9993 100.8%

let’s review what the question is asking:


If the students were to reach in and grab one Star at a time, what is
the probability for them to get one of each color?

If we look back at the chart,


There are 2 chances to draw 3 stars, one of each color, in the 3 color groupings.
Since there are 1 in 3 chance to pull the correct color on the first draw and if we
don’t replace the star, we know now, instead of 9 stars we have 8. The third draw
there is 7 only stars left of the 9.

=
27+27+27+27+27
9x8x7

Potrebbero piacerti anche