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Author Note:
Abstract
While the wage-setting ability of the minimum wage is an established fact, its impacts on
employment have been fiercely debated – but have ultimately settled on being relatively
negligible. Living wages, already implemented in a slew of cities nationwide, provide a working
example for minimum wage laws. Understanding the reasons for success or failure of living
wage campaigns, being as they are a less stringent form of the minimum wage, is key for
advancing minimum wage legislation. While the debate on minimum wages has long had policy
implications, the academic disagreement continues unimpeded. After careful analysis of dozens
of studies and several large metastudies, there is not sufficient evidence to support a statistically
significant employment response to increases in the minimum wage. In addition, uncovering the
techniques that, when used, largely reverse previously significant results. Several different
reasons could account for the lack of an established effect, offsetting the cost borne by employers
after a minimum wage increase. Of particular note when considering minimum wage laws are
the different impacts of the minimum wage on different worker age groups, especially teenagers,
which may be obfuscated when considered as part of the entire employment response.
The potential drawbacks of the minimum wages, especially for teenager, lend credence to the
treatment of the minimum wage as merely one of several different policy avenues to induce
wealth redistribution.
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 3
Introduction
The real dollar value of the minimum wage has steadily eroded since the 1980s, and wage
inequality has only grown with it. There exist long term trends in the labor market affecting the
distribution of wages; which have only been exacerbated due to the Great Recession. J. T.
Addison, M. L. Blackburn, and C. D. Cotti (2013) determined the recent minimum wage increase
during the Great Recession to only be slightly higher that the historical average, and lower than
the average during the period from 1950 to 1985 (pg. 31). D. Autor (2011) found the Great
Recession to only exacerbate existing long term wage inequality trends, particularly in that
“since the late 1970s and early 1980s, the rise in U.S. education levels has not kept up with the
rising demand for skilled workers, and the slowdown in education attainment has been
particularly severe for males. The result has been a sharp rise in the inequality of wages,” (pg.
12).
In the realm of public policy, the debate on the economic effects of the minimum wage in
terms of employment levels of the affected groups continues unabated, even as it irrefutably
raises the average wage of low wage workers. Studies conducted throughout the 2000s and
2010s have in general found a statistically insignificant employment effect of the minimum wage.
Traditionally, the consensus of the employment effect of the minimum wage was relatively well-
defined, and the assumptions being made in the process of conducting studies was not seriously
questioned. Now, the academic consensus has been turned on its head.
This has far-reaching consequences for legislative proposals going forward concerning
the expansion or curtailment of the minimum wage. While only a small percentage of the
workforce actually earns the minimum wage, it is nevertheless a benchmark for the setting of
wage structures in the service sector, the industry it is most associated with – retail clerks, fast
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 4
food, and so on. Additionally, minimum wage has traditionally been one of the most visible and
pervasive policy tools the federal government has for wealth redistribution (the others being
taxes and welfare). During this time the federal government only increased the minimum wage
sporadically, and while some states forged ahead with their own minimum wages (higher than
Fig 1. Wage and Hour Division (WHD), Minimum Wage Laws in the States - January 1, 2014.
At the same time, scores of municipalities have passed living wage laws, which are in
effect localized minimum wage laws. Living wage laws share the downward rigid (mandatory
minimum) structure of wages with the minimum wage, but they only apply to public sector
workers, and in some cases to businesses receiving public assistance or contractors, while the
minimum wage applies to all wage workers. However, living wages share advocacy support with
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 5
minimum wage campaigns, and understanding how they are enacted lends valuable insight into
Main Claim
While the wage-setting ability of the minimum wage is an established fact, its impacts on
employment have been fiercely debated – but have ultimately settled on being relatively
negligible. Living wages, already implemented in a slew of cities nationwide, provide a working
example for minimum wage laws. Understanding the cost and benefits of the minimum wage are
While the debate on minimum wages has long had policy implications, the academic
disagreement is surprisingly large as well. Since the early 1980s up through the early 1990s, the
conclusions of the Minimum Wage Study Commission (MWSC), that of a minor but statistically
significant employment effect, remained largely dominant. Since an influential 1994 cross-state
border study that contradicted this conclusion, the debate has bifurcated into supporters of a
negligible employment effect, and those supporting the more traditional assertion of a
Specifically, D. Card and A. Krueger (1994) found that “Contrary to the central
prediction of the textbook model of the minimum wage, but consistent with a number of recent
employers, we find no evidence that the rise in New Jersey’s minimum wage reduced
employment at fast-food restaurants in the state,” (p. 791). This conclusion set the ground for a
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 6
wide variety of interpretations of the available data that continued into the present. Additionally,
Card and Krueger questioned the conventional competitive model, saying that “Our empirical
findings on the effects of the New Jersey minimum wage are inconsistent with the predictions of
a conventional competitive model of the fast-food industry,” (p. 790). Put altogether, their
landmark paper seriously questioned the assumptions that other researchers had made in
J. Schmitt (2013) summarized the current debate as being bifurcated, noting that “At the
turn of the century, the minimum wage debate had two poles: on the one side, researchers
broadly identified with the ‘new minimum wage research’; and critics of the minimum wage and
the new minimum wage research, the most prolific of whom have been Neumark and Wascher,”
(p. 4). According to Schmitt, the ‘New Minimum Wage’ research was also innovative for
reasons other than its eventual conclusion. It also “Emphasized research methods based on
important differences in the “bite” of the federal minimum wage across the states. Any given
increase in the federal minimum, the thinking went, should have more impact in low-wage states,
where many workers would be eligible for an increase, than it would in high-wage states, where
According to J. Schmitt (2013), the Minimum Wage Study Commission found “Any
‘disemployment’ effects of the minimum wage were small and almost exclusively limited to
teenagers and possibly other younger workers” (p. 2). This conclusion was the dominant one for
about a decade from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, when the ‘New Minimum Wage
Research’ emerged.
The ‘New Minimum Wage’ research signaled a break from the more traditional MWSC,
but it was not overturned completely as it was quick to draw criticism. In contrast to the New
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 7
Minimum Wage research, D. Neumark and W. Wascher (2006) found that “Literature—when
read broadly and critically—as largely solidifying the conventional view that minimum wages
reduce employment among low-skilled workers, and as suggesting that the low-wage labor
market can be reasonably approximated by the neoclassical competitive model” (p. 123). They
were among those opposed to the New Minimum Wage Research, and who supported the
At the same time, a host of supporting studies found a statistically negligible employment
effect and suggested that the labor market could not be modeled by neoclassical competition. P.
Wolfson and D. Belman (forthcoming) concluded that “In the U.S, the employment elasticity for
youth appears to be between about -0.035 and -0.065. For the Food and Drink sector, the range is
broader, between -0.012 and -0.068, with more weight toward the zero end of the range than the
other. If one were to summarize these results in a single sentence we would be conclude that
there is a negative and generally statistically significant employment effect which is between
small and vanishingly small” (p. 21, emphasis mine). This would place them as being somewhat
between the conclusions of the New Minimum Wage research and the MWSC supported by
In response, D. Neumark and W. Wascher (2006) argued that in contrast to Card and
Kreuger’s (1994) paper, their results “Generally supported the earlier consensus that increases in
the minimum wage reduce employment among youths. In particular, employment elasticities
with respect to the minimum wage ranged from about −.1 to −.2 for teenagers and from −.15 to
−.2 for the youth population as a whole,” (pg. 9). This is a rather significant employment
response when taking into account the generally inconclusive (statistically insignificant)
conclusions of other studies. Other researchers continued to support the traditional assumptions
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 8
made in employment response studies. Burkhauser et al. (2000) posited that “It is not yet
necessary to abandon neoclassical theory as a method of predicting labor market outcomes.” (p.
676).
On the other end of the spectrum, H. Doucouliagos and T. D. Stanley (2009) both
questioned the prevailing conclusion of a negative minimum wage employment effect, as well as
offering some explanation. “First, minimum wages may simply have no effect on employment. If
this interpretation were true, it implies that the conventional neoclassical labor model is not an
adequate characterization of the US labor markets. Second, minimum-wage effects might exist,
but they may be too difficult to detect and/or are very small,” (p. 423). In putting forth these two
statements, Doucouliagos and Stanley were questioning not only the overarching conclusion of
employment effect of the minimum wage, but the underlying assumption, that of the neoclassical
labor model, as well. Doucouliagos and Stanley ended their critique by noting that “In any case,
with 64 studies containing approximately 1,500 estimates, we have reason to believe that if there
is some adverse employment effect from minimum-wage raises, it must be of a small and policy-
irrelevant magnitude,” (p. 423). This is only a further blow to the contention that the minimum
wage has a statistically significant disemployment effect, much less a public policy relevant one,
However, an important point that J. Schmitt (2013) made was that the results of a single
case study, as in D. Card and A. Krueger’s (1994) study, could not be generalized and that
random errors could’ve skewed the observations either way from the true effects – and that it
was impossible to rule out those possibilities (p. 7). This was due to the fact that despite the
innovative methods used in the study, it was still limited to a relatively small geographical area.
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 9
Consequently, more recent studies such as those by A. Dube, T. W. Lester, and M. Reich,
(2010) generalized D. Card and A. Kruger’s (1994) study nationwide and largely confirmed the
case studies, we show that the difference in the estimated elasticities in the two
differences in employment trends that are unrelated to minimum wage policies. (p.
961-962).
Importantly, Dube et al. conclude by supporting D. Card and A. Krueger, and applied
their own findings to other minimum wage literature, which had ‘sometimes conflicting results’.
“For the range of minimum wage increases over the past several decades, methodologies using
employment growth. These estimates suggest no detectable employment losses from the kind of
minimum wage increases we have seen in the United States (p. 962). By using the more
innovative methodologies pioneered by D. Card and A. Krueger a decade and half prior, Dube et
al. found the traditional conclusions reached in previous studies to be largely reversed.
The debate over the employment effect, however, as not simply focused on a dichotomy
between the New Minimum Wage Research and its opponents. J. T. Addison, M. L. Blackburn,
and C. D. Cotti, (2009) examined employment responses to wage increases in low-wage retail
environments and found that “Increasing the minimum wage tends to reduce employment levels
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 10
in the sectors we examine, and in many cases we find evidence pointing to increased
employment from increasing the minimum wage,” (pg. 407). While this was a rather rare
conclusion, given the already wide-ranging range of employment responses and elasticities
in the corpus of literature surrounding the minimum wage debate. “In the minimum wage
literature, the magnitude of the publication selection bias is as large or larger, on average, than
the underlying reported estimate. Overall, correcting for publication bias would transform a
modestly negative average elasticity to a small positive employment elasticity”. (p. 423).
Clearly, both the individual studies themselves and the metastudies aggregating the
studies are spread wide across a range of possible conclusions, with no definite consensus among
the studies (though the authors of individual studies or meta-studies often claim to find it). There
statistically significant one. Thus, the question of whether or not to implement the minimum
wage cannot be evaluated on the basis of its overall employment effect, as a policy decision
cannot be made on an unresolved academic question (one which legislators cannot adequately
answer). Nevertheless, the potential benefits and detriments of the minimum wage could
potentially be examined from another facet, one which shares some similarities with the
minimum wage.
Living wages are similar to minimum wages in that they mandate a mandatory wage floor
for workers based on the cost-of-living index. Unlike minimum wages, however, there is no
national living wage, but rather a minimum wage, which applies to all wage workers in the labor
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 11
market, compared to living wages which affects only public-sector workers within a certain city
that has passed living wage laws. Despite some differences, they serve as smaller test cases for
understanding a possible minimum wage effect. Understanding the reasons for the success or
failure of living wage campaigns, being as they are a less stringent form of the minimum wage,
is key for advancing minimum wage legislation. The similarity of the minimum wage and the
living wage implies that their respective campaigns would succeed in similar areas.
Concerning the implementation of living wages, H. Swarts and I. B. Vasi (2011) found
several important conclusions about the nature of the cities that produced successful living wage
campaigns. Their findings confirmed ones from earlier studies that “living wage policies are
better explained by political factors than economic grievances and that a federalist system
enables policy diffusion among various levels of the polity, including states, counties, and cities,”
(pg. 763). In light of this, it is not surprising that socioeconomically representative groups or
factors such as “neither [the] presence of a local ACORN chapter, labor union density, or both
together are significant predictors,” (pg. 763). Other factors included the city size, with a larger
city being more likely to pass living wage ordinances, the location of a city being outside of the
South, having a larger municipal budget/revenue, and voting Democratic. (p. 763-764).
According to Swarts and Vasi (2011), their study was the first and only systematic one of
living wage ordinance diffusion to date. Importantly, they discussed a variety of important traits
of living wage campaigns, as well as its applicability to the minimum wage policy debate:
While the economic effects of living wage ordinances were limited, the
movement reframed the issue of wages squarely in the social justice tradition –
and it laid the groundwork for wider campaigns that affected hundreds of
raising the state minimum wage in Arizona, Colorado, Missouri and Ohio, all of
these states was increased by $1.35 or more, delivering raises to 1.5 million
workers. Legislative campaigns raised the minimum wage for all workers in eight
states as well as some cities and one county: Albuquerque; Pine Bluff, Arkansas,
In this context it can be seen that living wages share many similarities with minimum
wage campaigns – and can even be a precursor or sorts. Understanding the impetus for living
wage campaigns, the social, political and economic reasons, can point the way to where a
effect of the minimum wage, there are also differing opinions over the disemployment effect of
living wage ordinances. W. Lester (2011) found no significant negative employment impacts due
to employment. In fact, in cities enacting the living wage, “the equity-growth tradeoff is not a
hard and fast rule”, being as they are only one policy tool for economic development. Lester
argued that the conclusions based on observations of California cities were actually applicable to
other regions in the US, because of the variety and number of cities surveyed in contrast to a
In contrast, S. Adams and D. Neumark (2005) found both a significant bottom-end wage
distribution as well as a significant employer response, which is “much larger than would be
expected based on the apparently limited coverage of workers by most living wage laws,” (p.
183). S. Adams and D. Neumark’s estimated wage elasticity was 0.05-0.07 (far smaller than the
estimated overall minimum wage employment elasticities found by D. Neumark and W. Wascher
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 13
(2006). However, based on the subcategories discussed by Adams and Neumark such as business
assistance, contractor coverage (inclusiveness) and proximal living wage laws, there are at least
three important divisions Adams and Neumark made among the sample successful living wage
campaign cities. Therefore, it would make sense that there would be a relatively wide and
disparate range of effects of an on-the-paper blanket legislation. The employment response may
be due to the ability of firms to shift jobs elsewhere – thus calling into question whether the
A third reason that living wages offer valuable insight is due to their inherently localized nature –
that is, the living wage is suited to the cost of living of the area it was legislated in.
whether the disparity between the state minimum wage and the federal wage was taken into
account – in effect, whether the relative wealth of the state was factored in:
Consistent with previous studies we find mild wage effects and no evidence for
wages. This holds in the long-run and the short-run. In contrast, we find notable
Overall, there are striking similarities between the minimum wage and living wage, in
terms of both legislative and policy implementation, with localized minimum wages following
on the heels of living wage ordinances, as well as the ambiguity over the disemployment effect
of the wage law. The unique aspect of the living wage is its localized nature, is actually not
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 14
solely the reserve of the living wage ordinance, as more and more minimum wage laws are being
While it is fine to closely examine the question of the minimum wage’s disemployment
effect from opposing sides, it leaves the question of why there is no definite answer or
several different meta-studies and synthesis studies of meta-studies, could explain the often
varying and contradictive conclusions reached from the same data. These include the variety of
adjustments channels may have in response to a wage increase, such as hours, workforce
J. Schmitt (2013) lists a variety of potential adjustment channels for firms seeking to
offset increasing labor costs associated with a minimum wage increase, which might explain the
obfuscated employment response. All of them relate to his contention that in reality, the cost of a
minimum wage increase to firms employing low-wage workers is actually quite small – that is,
“the cost shock of the minimum wage is small relative to most firms' overall costs and only
modest relative to the wages paid to low-wage workers,” (pg. 24). Schmitt then proceeds to
critique the conventional approach concerning the minimum wage disemployment effect,
pointing out that “In the traditional discussion of the minimum wage, economists have focused
on how these costs affect employment outcomes, but employers have many other channels of
adjustment,” (pg. 24). This is an important first step in examining the entire issue from a
different facet, in asking the question of how firms in the real world might respond, rather than
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 15
how a hypothetical firm with only one lever for cost adjustment – hiring or firing workers –
Employers can reduce hours, non-wage benefits, or training. Employers can also
shift the composition toward higher skilled workers, cut pay to more highly paid
a smaller profit margin. Workers may also respond to the higher wage by working
harder on the job. But, probably the most important channel of adjustment is
This emphasizes that employment reduction is only one of a dozen different adjustment
mechanisms, which would explain why its standalone change in response to a minimum wage
increase is more subdued than one would otherwise expect without the adjustment mechanism
statistical sense). Many researchers note when considering minimum wage laws the differing
effects of the minimum wage on different worker age groups, especially teenagers, which may be
obfuscated when considered as part of the entire employment response. In addition to their
positions against the New Minimum Wage Research, D. Neumark and W. Wascher (2006)
argued that “the presence of a youth subminimum in particular states tended to reduce the impact
of the minimum wage in those states, as the standard model would predict,” (p. 9). This would
seem to indicate that teenagers are uniquely affected that minimum wage increases, if setting a
sub wage can reduce the overall employment impact of minimum wage increases.
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 16
Unlike the debate over the overall minimum wage employment response, other
(2000) found that “The preponderance of the evidence indicates that increases in the minimum
wage during the 1990s led to modest but statistically significant declines in teenage employment.
We conclude that the elasticity of teenage employment with respect to the minimum wage lies in
the range of 2.2 to 2.6.” (p. 676). This value of employment elasticity is quite high (an order of
recessionary environments, the most stringent and sensitive economic periods, there was not a
significant disemployment effect associated with minimum wage increases, except for teenager
in areas with already-high employment (pg. 37). Adding to this consensus, J. J. Sabia, R. V.
Burkhauser, and B. Hansen (2012) estimated that raising the New York minimum wage from
$5.15 to $6.75 per hour caused employment among 16- to 29- year olds to fall around 21%,
associated with a median elasticity of -0.7. While they do admit to finding a larger elasticity than
the consensus estimate, there is a clear pattern, largely in agreement, of the disemployment effect
demographic groups, which makes deciding a minimum wage a challenging policy decision. One
possible solution lies in treating minimum wage as merely one policy tool among a toolbox of
legislation including business and labor standards, tax policy and welfare programs, to limit the
recommendations, using the minimum wage to enact additional [wealth] transfers to low-skilled
workers is more effective when low-skilled wages are downward rigid because of a binding
minimum wage. Lee and Saez are referring to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). The
efficiency of both the tax policy and the minimum wage law increase when used in unison; in the
absence of a rigid wage, low-skilled wages would fall and high-skilled wages would rise through
wage incidence effects, partially offsetting the initial transfer (the EITC). However, with a
binding minimum wage, and under the strong assumption of efficient rationing, Lee and Saez
find that an ETIC expansion would increase after-tax incomes of low-skilled workers dollar-for-
dollar. (p.743). Given realistic tax and transfer policy, Lee and Saez (2012) concluded that
minimum wage increases the effectiveness of additional low-skilled worker transfers if wages
are downward rigid due to a binding minimum wage. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
could increase after-tax incomes of low-skilled workers dollar for dollar (and are thus
complementary).
Conclusion
No consensus from the exhaustive studies over the preceding past two decade has been
reached in the employment effect of the minimum wage. Rather, the preponderance of evidence
points to an effect that is at the minimum statistically insignificant, and may be irrelevant as far
as public policy is concerned. Thus, the minimum wage does not have a zero-sum trade off with
the employment of the affected workers. Schmitt (2013) supports this conclusion, arguing that
“research conducted since the early 1990s concludes that the minimum wage has had little or no
In terms of further progress on resolving the minimum wage debate, additional studies
could be conducted on the potential for localization of the minimum wages, where the cost of
doing business and cost of living match with the local minimum wage level, and thus the
prospect of employer flight is reduced. There are also potential areas of new research in
‘adjustment mechanisms’ for other low-wage worker employers throughout the extensive service
sector. However, the question of whether or not a minimum wage increase actually causes
disemployment effect is the default; and thus a policy debate on the implementation of a
The living wage, successful as it is, only covers a rather miniscule amount of the overall
U.S. population, the select cities that have passed living wage ordinances. Since they are a
predictor of having a follow-up minimum wage law, the rarity of them now largely makes more
numerous local minimum wage law an unlikely outcome. However, the fact that the living wage
has only been passed in some places also lends credence to the idea that wage policy is not ‘one
size fits all’. Cost of living is very different across the U.S., and it is due time that minimum
wage legislation take that into account, and not merely on the state level.
Ultimately, the primary purpose of minimum wage research (besides for knowledge’s
sake) is to inform policy makers on the best course forward concerning redistributive economic
policies. More studies and models, therefore, should take into account that minimum wage policy
is part of an overall economic framework, with employers in the service sector (as well as others)
responding to any regulation in a variety of ways, with effects not always readily apparent, and
that the government has a variety of tools to work with to achieve the goal of closing income
inequality and redistributing some wealth towards the lowest-wage workers. Nevertheless, the
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 19
expansive breadth and scope of the research to date is testament to the acknowledgement by both
academics and policy makers of the importance of not being complacent about minimum wage
policy.
MINIMUM WAGE POLICY EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 20
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