Reliability Modeling

and Data Analysis

Detail Minitab Demo and

Explanations

Prepared by Lawrence Kong

Reliability Data Analysis for
Multiple Failure Modes
(Competing Causes)
 Multiple Failure Modes

• What?
Multiple failure modes are the different ways the same
item can fail.
• Because failure times for different failure modes tend to
follow different distributions, it is usually best to classify
failure data into modes and analyze each mode
separately.
• When to use?
When one observes sharp curves in a probability plot.
This is an indication that multiple failure modes exist.
 Why Use Multiple Failure Modes

We can answer questions:

• Which failure mode should I reduce or remove to result
in greatest improvement in the lifetime of my product?
• Which modes of failure are associated with infant
mortality?
(If I know this, I can determine the length of product burn-in period)

Example:
• Should I focus improvement efforts on electrical or
mechanical components of a DVD player in order to
increase its B5 life?
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes
• 500 units of mobile phones were followed in the field
for 300 hours of usage. Failure times and the failure
modes were obtained for the failed units. At the end of
the 300 hours of operation 124 units were still
functional (no failure).
• Failure times and the modes are given in
“Competing_Causes_Demo.mtw”

Minitab Activity
Competing_Causes_Demo.mtw
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes
• An additional column C3 “Failure
Mode Code” is created. We will use
this numeric column for failure modes
in analysis.
• C2 column is not used in analysis as
the there is no corresponding failure
mode to the censored data point.
Censored times need to have “*” in
C3 column (numeric column). For text
column, censored times need to have
a blank cell.
• Formatting of data like this is critical
or Minitab will shown error later.
• Example of error: “Maximum
likelihood estimates could not be
calculated for these data. There must
be at least one distinct plot point on a
probability plot for each (estimated
parameter - 1) and at least one
censored observation.”
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes

Assuming
Distribution ID
Plots are
assessed here
 Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes

If you do not enter a value,

Minitab uses the lowest
value in the censoring
column. Text values must Select “Failure Mode
be contained in double Code”
quotes. Use all failure modes
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes

Estimate the Weibull

parameters for each
failure modes using MLE
method

Use lower confidence

level as our sample size
is normally scarce
Results – Multiple Failure Modes

By default Minitab selects Probability Plot and

Display Confidence Intervals on plots.
You can select other plots to compare them
amongst different failure modes.
Results – Individual Probability Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
 Results – Individual Probability Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW

• If all the individual probability plots look good, examine the combined probability plot.
• If any of the distributions do not fit the data well, return to the Parametric Distribution
Analysis dialog box and choose a new distribution for the ill-fitting failure modes
 Multiple Distributions Probability Plot
When all failure modes are
combined, Minitab displays
the resulting distribution of
the system on a Weibull
probability plot.

Rather than combining the

data and creating an
overall Weibull probability
plot, this plot uses the info
from the individual
distributional fits.

• The Weibull distribution may not always fit the data well. Instead of falling in a straight
line, one may have a curve in the data due to more than one mode of failure. The
sharper the curves (aka “Doglegs”) means more than one cause of failures.
• Gentle curves may indicate that the origin of the time scale is not zero. A part may have
already experienced some use before the failure time clock starts.
• A concave downward curve may indicate that the distribution of data is really lognormal.
Distribution Analysis
For our failure data, a Weibull
distribution is chosen based on
Maximum Likelihood
Estimation Method to model all
failure modes 1 to 5.
The parameters that define the
best-fitting distributions are
shown in the precious Weibull
probability plots for all failure
modes

This table contains information

on the overall product
reliability.
In this example, we are 90%
confident that 5% of phone
population will fail at least from
10.17 hours.
Individual Survivor Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
 Survivor Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW
Cumulative Failure Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
 Cumulative Failure Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW
Hazard Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
 Hazard Plots

Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW

• The hazard function provides the likelihood of failure as a function of how long a unit has
lasted (the instantaneous failure rate at a particular time, t). The hazard plot shows the
trend in the failure rate over time.
• The multiple distributions hazard function plot here indicates the failure rate is increasing:
phone units are more likely to fail as they age. An increasing hazard typically happens in
the later stages of a product's life, as in wear-out.
 Results – Multiple Failure Modes
Summarized parameter estimates from all failure modes:
Failure Failure Scale Shape
Mode Mode Parameter Parameter
Analysis of the Description Code β α
multiple failure
modes are critical
Audio 1 814.213 1.20752
to rank/prioritize
which failure modes Charging 2 623.526 1.13689
to fix in order to
improve overall Keypad 3 2580.46 1.42878
product reliability,
this is called Power Up 4 719.711 0.869112
“competing causes”
SW 5 920.308 1.52559

• Failure modes with lowest shape parameters are 2 (Charging) and 4 (Power up)
• Failure modes with highest scale parameters are 3 (Keypad) and 5 (SW)
 Results – Multiple Failure Modes

• An better way to prioritize the failure modes is

to overlay the Weibull plots of different failure
modes showing the failure probability, once
the individual Weibull parameters are
estimated.
• This can be done using an Excel template to
calculate the Weibull Distribution Functions
F(t)

Minitab Activity
Weibull-CDF.XLS
Results – Multiple Failure Modes
Weibull parameter
estimates obtained
from Minitab results
output

This is the
Weibull
Cumulative
Distribution
Function
F(t)

beta
⎛ Time ⎞
Failure Probability (Modes ) = 1 − exp⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝ alpha ⎠
 Cumulative Distribution Function Plot

This is plotted
in Excel
template using
the Weibull
Distribution
Function

• Fix the failure modes with highest failure probability to have an

impact on the product’s overall reliability.
• Failure modes associated with the highest failure probabilities are
2 (Charging) and 4 (Power up)
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes

Question:
• If we eliminate the failure modes 2 (Charging)
and 4 (Power up), how much improvement
can be made on the product reliability?
 Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes

Minitab Activity
Competing_Causes_Demo.mtw
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes

Censor information In Failure Mode Options,

entered as before specify the failure modes that
you intent to eliminate; Modes 2
and 4 (if modes are text, type
exactly as it appear, this is case
sensitive)
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes

Failures Modes 2 and 4 are eliminated hence does not show up.
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes

• Weibull plot of the product after eliminating the failure modes 4

(PowerUp) and 2 (Charging)
 Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes

Inclusion of all 5 failure modes Exclusion of failure modes 2 & 4

Probability Plot for Hrs All Modes Probability Plot for Hrs No PowerUp
Multiple Distributions - 90% CI Multiple Distributions - 90% CI
Censoring Column in Censor - ML Estimates Charging
Censoring Column in Censor - ML Estimates
99 99
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20 20 20

Percent
Percent

10 10 10 10
5 5
3 3
2 2

1 1

0.1 0.1
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 1 10 100 1000
Hrs Hrs

For the same percentiles, failure times are much larger if

“PowerUp” and “Charging” modes are eliminated
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes
Inclusion of all 5 failure modes Exclusion of failure modes 2 & 4

Exclusion of failure modes 2

and 4 shows that the
percentage failure at 5% (B5
life) is predicted to take place
at a much later time. We are
90% confident that 5% of
phone population will fail at
41.25 hours instead of the
initial 10.17 hours.
Summary: Multiple Failure Modes

• Focus on a failure mode that is most critical for

overall product reliability
• Strategy for allocating resources for reliability
improvement
• Assessing what failure mode a product is more
likely to fail