Hurricane Florence

Decision Support Briefing # 12

As of: 5:30 PM Wednesday,
September 12th

What has Changed?

 Tropical storm warning for
Cumberland, Sampson, and
Wayne.
 Expanded Tropical storm watch to
include Lee, Moore, and Richmond
counties.
Weather Forecast Office
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 Summary of Greatest Impacts
Flash Flooding: Sandhills and Coastal Plain
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

River Flooding: Sandhills and Coastal Plain

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Wind: Sandhills and Coastal Plain

Central
None
North Carolina
Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Tornado: Sandhills and Coastal Plain

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Power Outages: Central North Carolina

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Weather Forecast Office

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 Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Damage to trees, powerlines, Central NC Beginning late Thursday
and weak structures (Particularly the sandhills afternoon and persisting
Wind and coastal plain) into the weekend

Creeks and streams flood Thu - Sat: East/Central NC Beginning Thursday

roads and vulnerable Sat – Tue: South/Western afternoon and persisting
Flash Flooding businesses NC through the weekend

Moderate to Major flooding All River basins across Over the weekend and into
anticipated central and eastern NC early next week
River Flooding

Minor damage to structures, Sandhills and Coastal Thursday Night through

Tornado damage to trees and power Plain Saturday Evening
lines
Power outages likely All of Central NC Thursday through much of
Power the weekend
Outages

Weather Forecast Office

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 Hurricane Florence

5 PM Wednesday Sep 12
Max Winds: 120 mph
Location: About 385 mi SE of
Wilmington, NC
Movement: NW at 16 mph
Pressure: 949 mb or 28.03 in

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 Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities

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 Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds

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 Wind Threat
Potential Impacts:
 NC Sandhills and Coastal
Plain should be prepared
for damaging and perhaps
destructive wind gusts.
 Expect widespread and
prolonged power outages.

Timing:
 Thursday afternoon
through Saturday
morning.

Extreme
High
Moderate
Elevated
Low
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 Expected Peak Wind and Wind Gust

Expected Peak Sustained Wind Expected Peak Wind Gust

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 7-Day Rainfall Forecast
1” – 2”

1” – 2”

4” – 6” 2” – 4”

1” – 2” 2” – 4”
* GSO
4” – 6” * RAH
* CLT
10”*–FAY15”
6” – 10”
20”+

1” – 2”

Weather Forecast Office

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 Flooding Rain Threat
Potential Impacts:
 Major to extreme flooding
is likely across central and
eastern NC. Extreme
flooding rain threat may
spread further inland
depending on track.

Timing:
 Beginning Thursday night
with the threat lasting for
several days.

Weather Forecast Office

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 Tropical Tornado Potential

Thursday Outlook

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 Tornado Threat
Potential Impacts:
 Conditions are favorable
for tornadoes east of I-95.

Timing:
 Thursday evening through
Saturday evening.

Weather Forecast Office

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 Created at 5:12 PM on
September 12, 2018

MMEFS – Cape Fear River @ Fayetteville

Accumulated Precipitation Simulation for the GFS.

12.00”

10.00”

8.00”

5.00”

Weather Forecast Office

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 Created at 5:12 PM on
September 12, 2018

MMEFS – Cape Fear River @ Fayetteville

River Level Simulation for the GFS.

Weather Forecast Office

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 Created at 5:12 PM on
September 12, 2018

MMEFS – Yadkin River @ Yadkin College

Accumulated Precipitation Simulation for the GFS.

7.50”

5.00”

3.00”

Weather Forecast Office

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Raleigh, NC 9/12/2018 5:56 PM
 Created at 5:12 PM on
September 12, 2018

MMEFS – Yadkin River @ Yadkin College

River Level Simulation for the GFS, and NAEFS.

Weather Forecast Office

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 • 2 to 3 inches of rain.
Hurricane Florence Impact Severity by Area • Sustained winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts 30 to 35 mph.

Thursday through Monday Sept 13-17, 2018

• 3-5 inches of rain expected, with locally higher amounts,
leading to localized poor drainage flooding.
• Sustained winds 15 to 30 mph, with gusts 35 to 40 mph,
coupled with wet ground will result in downed trees and
some power outages.
•
• Heavy rain with 5-10 inches storm totals are expected
through Monday.
• These rains will likely result in flash flooding.
• Sustained winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
coupled with wet ground, likely to result in numerous
downed trees and power outages.
• River flooding expected early next week. The rivers most
likely to see significant rises include the Cape Fear, Little,
Black, and the Neuse Rivers.

• Heavy rain with 10-20 inches. storm totals are expected

through Monday, with higher amounts near 25 in. possible.
• Flash flooding and areal flooding expected in this area –
significant threat to life and property!
• Sustained winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 65 to 70 mph.
Coupled with wet ground, likely to result in widespread
downed trees and prolonged power outages, and
subsequent structural/automobile damage where they fall.
• River flooding expected early next week. The rivers most
likely to see significant rises include the Cape Fear, Little,
Black, and the Neuse Rivers.

Weather Forecast Office

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 Event Summary
Hurricane Florence likely to slow near the coast, and potentially make landfall
early Friday and slowly meander over the Carolinas.

 Confidence is MODERATE that the event will occur

 MODERATE confidence on expected impacts

Strong sustained winds and gusts expected on Friday, likely persisting into the
weekend. Strongest gusts expected across the southeastern coastal plain of
NC.

Flash and eventually river flooding likely beginning Thursday evening and
persisting through the weekend and into early next week.

Risk for short lived and weak tornadoes as the rain bands push ashore
Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE NO LATER THAN MID-DAY

THURSDAY!
Be sure to visit http://readync.org for preparedness suggestions.
Weather Forecast Office
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 Three Key Points

1. Even with track and landfall timing changes, a prolonged life threatening
rain and subsequent inland flooding event is expected across much of the
area.

2. Dangerous winds will also result in widespread downed trees which will
likely culminate in widespread and prolonged power outages.

3. Residents of central North Carolina should be prepared for an interruption

of their daily life activities Thursday night through the weekend.

Weather Forecast Office

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 Contact and Next Briefing Information

Next Briefing:
11:30 AM Thursday

Briefing Webpage:
http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

Web: Facebook:
http://weather.gov/rah NWSRaleigh

Phone (public): Twitter:

(919) 326-1042 @NWSRaleigh

E-mail: YouTube:
rah.reports@noaa.gov NWSRaleigh

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing

is time-sensitive; do not use after 10 AM Thursday, September 13, 2018

Weather Forecast Office

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 Inland Offices will be
Issuing Tropical
Products in 2018

Remember, beginning this season,

dangerous high winds associated with
tropical storms and hurricanes will be
warned using “Tropical Storm” and
“Hurricane” watches and warnings, rather
than “wind advisories” and “high wind
warnings. ”

Weather Forecast Office

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 New WFO Tropical Webpage
http://www.weather.gov/rah/tropical
● One-Stop Shop for all
tropical related local forecast
information, tailored to each
forecast area along U.S.
coastline.

● Active Storms tab becomes

active when NHC initiates
Tropical Cyclone advisories.

● Scrolling down the page

provides access to NHC
products related to each
active storm and WPC
rainfall products.

www.weather.gov/rah/tropical
 7-Day Rainfall Forecast
Locally Higher Amounts Possible
3” – 4”
5” – 7”

5” – 8”
7” – 10” 15” – 20”

3” – 4” 10 - 15” 20” +

Weather Forecast Office

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