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Meteorology
Over longer time periods, the effects of moving weather fronts, storms, and
changing solar heat flux must usually be considered. Also, over a longer time
duration, pollutants travel farther and the effects of topology are often more
important. In accident scenarios that last less than approximately 60 minutes,
it is sufficient to proceed using a single set of averaged weather conditions.
Longer duration releases can be analyzed with a set of wind and weather data,
either as a time series, or alternately as a statistical distribution of different
possible conditions and the persistence of these conditions over time.
When time periods of approximately 60 minutes or less are considered, the
two important mechanisms of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere come from
(1) mechanical turbulence generated from wind drag at the ground, and (2)
vertical density stratification in the atmosphere. These mechanisms are dis-
cussed more completely in the following sections.
The "eddies," or random fluid motions, generated by mechanical turbulence
have time scales in the range of milliseconds to a minute. Convective thermal
cells, associated with daytime density stratification, have time scales that range
from one to five minutes. Any time-averages of atmospheric parameters, includ-
ing concentration averages from dispersing plumes, will become more variable
over shorter averaging times, especially at averaging time below 10 minutes
where there is a better chance that the averaged sample will be insufficient to
capture information from enough random eddies to ensure a consistent value.
This idea is captured by the autocorrelation function,
which describes how well velocity (or any relevant variable) correlates with
itself as a function of time displacement. The integral time scale, or average
correlation time, is given by
Averages taken over time intervals less than TI,M will vary considerably from
sample to sample. This variability is much less with averages taken over a time
duration greater than Ti,M.
As wind passes over the ground, surface friction and internal wind shear retards
the flow near the ground. At great heights above the ground, the wind is largely
unaffected by surface friction, and acquires a velocity determined primarily by
the horizontal pressure gradient of the local weather system and Coriolis forces
which result from the rotating earth.
The surface obstacles and features that disturb the wind near the ground
result in atmospheric turbulence and a net drag force between the ground and
the upper atmosphere. This aerodynamic drag, and the associated mechanically
generated atmospheric turbulence, increases with higher wind speeds and with
greater number, height, and spacing of ground surface features. An aerodynamic
surface roughness height, zo, is often used to characterize the averaged effects
of surface features on the wind flow. This roughness height may range from less
than a millimeter for ice and mud flats to several meters in an urban area. The
effect of roughness height on the vertical wind profile is shown in Figure 2.1.
Increasing roughness height and greater wind speed generally increase the level
of turbulence in the atmosphere. Atmospheric boundary layer wind profiles are
discussed in Randerson (1984) and Pasquill and Smith (1983).
deser,t cam
large urban centers shrubs and trees short grass
•i
1.0 0.1 0.01 0.001
z , Aerodynamic Surface Roughness Height (meters)
Roughness
Height
T Vertical Wind Profile
Figure 2.1. The effect of surface obstacles and roughness height on vertical wind profiles.
stratification, with warm, buoyant air underlying a layer of cooler air. Transient
thermals result, with the hot air rising and expanding adiabatically in long
vertical columns. This rise continues up to a mixing height where the air density
inside the thermal is equal to the surrounding air density. This mixing height is
also the height of the mean temperature inversion (change in the sign ± ofdT/dz
with height) as shown in Figure 2.2. Areas of downward subsidence surround
each thermal. Thermal convection in the unstable atmosphere leads to high
mixing rates in the vertical direction and rapid dilution of pollutant releases.
At night, there is radiative cooling between the ground surface and the night
sky. Conduction and convection then cool the atmosphere from below, resulting
in a stable vertical temperature and density profile, with density decreasing with
increasing height. This stable stratification leads to limited vertical mixing rates
in the atmosphere. Dilution rates of pollutants in calm, stably-stratified condi-
tions can be several orders of magnitude less than in an unstable, convective
atmosphere. A stable density stratification also occurs above the mean tempera-
ture inversion height in unstable atmospheric conditions.
There are a number of methods available for quantifying the state of the
atmosphere. The best method is often through direct measurements, which can
be very useful in estimating dispersion in an actual accidental release, or in
dispersion model verification. The most basic method follows the Pasquill-Gif-
ford stability classification scheme. This requires only simple estimates of wind
speed, solar insolation (in daytime), and cloud cover (at night). Bounds for this
classification scheme are given in Table 2.1.
The Pasquill-Gifford stability classes range from A through F. A-stability
conditions occur in low winds with high incoming levels of solar radiation.
Height Height
Stable Neutral
Unstable Stable Unstable
Mixing Neutral Mixing
Height Height
Density, p Temperature, T
Figure 2.2. Vertical density and temperature profiles in unstable, neutral, and stable
atmospheric conditions. The unstable mixing height is often marked by a inversion, or
change in the slope of the vertical density profile.
TABLE 2.1
Definitions ofPasquill Stability Categories in Terms of Wind Speed, Solar Insolation,
and Sky Conditions (Pasquill and Smith, 1983)
A: extremely unstable conditions C: slightly unstable conditions E: slightly stable conditions
B: moderately unstable conditions D: neutral conditions F: moderately stable conditions
night
surface
daytime soiar insolation
wind speed thinly overcast, or
(m/i) strong moderate slight > 4/8 low clouds < 3/8 clouds
<2 A A-B B
2-3 A-B B C E F
3-5 B B-C C D E
5-6 C C-D D D D
>6 C D D D D
(for A-B take average of values for A and B, etc.)
E-stability and F-stability conditions arise on clear nights with little wind.
D-stability class conditions occur with higher wind speeds and greater cloud
cover. A refinement of this method includes surface roughness height in the
classification scheme, where increased roughness will shift more cases toward
the neutral D-stability class conditions. An analogous method defines "rural"
and "urban" classification criteria, where a change from rural to urban conditions
has the same effect on stability class as an increase in roughness height (USEPA,
1987). Figure 2.3 shows the trends of Pasquill-Gifford stability class dependence
on cloud cover, wind speed, and roughness height. Once the stability class, wind
speed, and source release rate are specified in a given scenario, simple dispersion
models can be used to predict the downwind concentration field for many types
of passive pollutant releases.
One item neglected in the Pasquill-Gifford stability class scheme is the
overall height of the turbulent boundary layer, or mixing height. This is unspeci-
fied but can be important if a dispersing plume reaches this height. It is
sometimes included in the class description as a external parameter.
I Slightly Stable
Moderately Stable
heat
transfer)
(a)
Speed
(b)
Height Mixing
Stable Stable
:Density Density
Profile Profile
Vertical
Unstable Density
Density Profile
Profile
Time
Dawn Noon Dusk Dawn
Figure 2.5. Daily variations in the atmospheric boundary layer. Changes over time in
atmospheric turbulence are shown in (a), while changes in the vertical density profile
are shown in (b).