Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Project 98 file
I ntranet WBS & Gantt Chart Organized by PM
Groups
Lots of reasons for poor estimates
inexperience, technical problems, changes
optimists, low-balling, politics
Bottom-up cost estimating
rollup the WBS packages
Top-down or Parametric estimating
from experience to complex models
Which technique is better?
ideally use both
early on don t have WBS so must use
top-down
accuracy of top-down depends on
availability/ quality of historical data
building complete WBS can be
expensive, but guesses can be even
more costly
Deliverables
Tangible, verifiable work products
Reports, presentations, prototypes, etc.
Milestones
Significant events or achievements
Acceptance of deliverables or phase
completion
Cruxes (proof of concepts)
Quality control
Keeps team focused
Develop work packages for each of the
phases and deliverables defined in the
Deliverable Structure Chart (DSC)
The seeds of major software disasters are usually
sown in the first three months of commencing the
software project. Hasty scheduling,irrational
commitments, unprofessional estimating
techniques,and carelessness of the project
management function are the factors that tend to
introduce terminal problems. Once a project
blindly lurches forward toward an impossible
delivery date, the rest of the disaster will occur
almost inevitably.
T. Capers Jones
Lines of Code (LOC)
Function Points
Most traditionally used metric for
project sizing
Most controversial
Count comments?
Declaring variables?
Efficient code vs. code bloat
Language differences
Easier to count afterwards than to estimate
Analysis based on evaluation of data
and transactional types:
Internal Logical File (ILF)
External Interface File (EIF)
External Input (EI)
External Output (EO)
External Inquiry (EQ)
Value Adjustment Factor based on
Degrees of Influence (DI) aka Processing
Complexity Adjustment (PCA)
General Systems Characteristics (GSC)
Total Adjusted Function Points (TAFP)
transformed into development estimates
converted in equivalent LOC
Backfiring
The Mythical Man-Month Frederick
Brooks
1. 0ur techniques of estimation are poorly
developed.More seriously, they reflect
an unvoiced assumption which is quite
untrue i.e., that all will go well.
2. Our estimating techniques fallaciously
confuse effort with progress, hiding the
assumption that men and months are
interchangeable.
The Mythical Man-Month Frederick
Brooks
C=2 4 E=1
A=2 B=5
start 1 2 3 6 finish
D=7 5 F=2
I Train users 5 G
J Write report to management 1 H,I
Activity on the Node (AON) Network
Diagram
Possible Paths Path Total
Path 1 A+B+C+F+H+J 18
2+5+4+4+2+1
Path 2 A+B+D+F+H+J 17
2+5+3+4+2+1
Path 3 A+B+D+G+H+J 16
2+5+3+3+2+1
Path 4 A+B+D+G+I+J 19*
2+5+3+3+5+1
Path 5 A+B+E+G+I+J 17
2+5+1+3+5+1
Longest path
Shortest time project can be completed
Zero slack (or float)
The amount of time an activity can be delayed
before it delays the project
Must be monitored and managed!
PM can expedite or crash
Can fast track
The CP can change
Can have multiple CPs
Techniques for Shortening a Project
Schedule
Shortening durations of critical tasks:
add more resources
change their scope
Crashing tasks by obtaining the greatest
amount of schedule compression for the
least incremental cost
Fast tracking tasks by doing them in parallel
or overlapping them
Developed 1959 for Polaris project
Similar to CPM but addresses
uncertainties in task durations
Uses probabilistic time estimates
optimistic, most likely, pessimistic
estimates of activity durations
PERT weighted average formula:
optimistic time + 4X most likely time + pessimistic time
6
Example:
PERT weighted average =
8 workdays + 4 X 10 workdays + 24 workdays = 12 days
6
A None 1 2 4 2.2
B A 3 5 8 5.2
C B 2 4 5 3.8
D B 2 3 6 3.3
E B 1 1 1 1.0
F C,D 2 4 6 4.0
G D,E 2 3 4 3.0
H F,G 1 2 5 2.3
I G 4 5 9 5.5
J H,I .5 1 3 1.3
Time
Optimistic Timetoj
Most Likely Time =tm Pessimistic Timetpj
Expected duration =
For each task j, we must make three estimates:
toj most optimistic time
tpj most pessimistic time
tmj most likely time
2
tpj - toj 2
Variance of task j = j =
36
Estimating Task Durations:
Painting a Room
Task: Paint 4 rooms, each is approximately 10 x 20 . Use flat paint on walls,
semi-gloss paint on trim and woodwork. Each room has two doors and four
windows. You must apply masking tape before painting woodwork around the
doors and windows. Preparation consists of washing all walls and woodwork
(some sanding and other prep work will be needed). Only one coat of paint is
necessary to cover existing paint. All supplies will be provided at the start of the
task. Previous times on similar painting jobs are indicated in the table below.
hours min hours min
27 25 31 52
38 25 19 15
33 12 26 27
17 44 30 27
26 7 25 21
22 1 24 28
14 2 32 58
30 27 32 1
28 30 13 43
21 13 42 45
23 59 22 57
27 44 32 15
23 15 32 31
37 6 27 15
17 54 26 11
17 13 21 52
Subcontractors
Project Team
Regulating Functional
Organizations Managers
To the organization and top management
Meet budget and resource constraints
Engage functional managers
To the client
Communicate in timely and accurate manner
Provide information and control on changes/modifications
Maintain quality standards
To the subcontractors
Provide information on overall project status
What is a project team?
A group of people committed to achieve a
common set of goals for which they hold
themselves mutually accountable