Return On Insight Fall 2010 Update

MEDIA RELEASE

ROI POLL OF CALGARIANS:

“The race for Mayor has become a two-way fight
between McIver and Higgins, with Nenshi in third
and all others well behind”

This survey was conducted by Return On Insight (ROI) as part of its Fall 2010
Report. The survey took place between October 2nd and 4th by telephone utilizing
a random digit dial sample, ensuring all adult Calgarians had an equal chance of
being selected. This representative cross-section of 501 adult Calgarians is
accurate to within +/-4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. In
other words, if the entire adult population of Calgary had been surveyed, the
results of such a census would not differ from this poll of 501 residents by more
than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

A recent poll of Calgarians conducted by Return On Insight indicates that Ric McIver
holds a slim 3 percentage point lead over Barb Higgins (31% to 28%), with Naheed
Nenshi running third (16%). All other candidates are polling at 3% or less, including
Hawkesworth (3%), Burrows (2%), Stewart (2%), Connelly (1%) and Lord (1%).
Less than one fifth of the electorate (16%) are undecided with under 2 weeks to go
before Election Day. [See Figure 1]

Among decided voters, the head to head battle between McIver and Higgins is apparent.
McIver has the support of 37% of decided voters compared to 33% for Higgins. Naheed
Nenshi has pulled away from the crowded pack of other contenders into a solid third
place position with 19% of the decided vote. All other candidates combined have the
support of the remaining 11% of the electorate. [See Figure 2]

Campaign momentum is positive for the three front-runners, with Nenshi registering the
greatest momentum in the past month (+14), followed by McIver (+9) and Higgins
(+5). [See Figure 3]

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 Return On Insight Fall 2010 Update

Bruce Cameron, the founder of ROI who conducted the poll as part of his company’s
quarterly reporting of Calgary issues, noted that:

“The battle to become the next Mayor of Calgary is closer than many observers
had thought, with three candidates emerging from the crowded field that started
the race on nomination day. While McIver continues to lead, as he has in most
polls published during the campaign, his lead is in single digits, with Higgins
close behind and Nenshi in third place.”

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For more information or an interview, contact:

Bruce Cameron
Return On Insight
Cell: (403) 850-4068
E-mail: rbc@returnoninsight.ca

Figure 1

Mayoralty Vote Intention

(Including “ Leaners ”)
“Now thinking about the candidates running for mayor, which candidate would you be most likely to
vote for? Even if you haven’t totally made up your mind right now, which candidate are you leaning
toward supporting?”

McIver McIver 31%

31%

Higgins Higgins 28%

28%
Nenshi Nenshi 16%
16%

Hawkesworth
Hawkesworth 3%

Stewart Stewart 2%

BurrowsBurrows 2%

Connelly
Connelly 1% All other candidates: less
than 1% of mentions
Lord Lord 1%

Undecided
Undecided 16%

*Note: Includes “Leaners”

Source: ROI Calgary Quarterly Report, Fall 2010 Base: All respondents ( n=501)

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 Return On Insight Fall 2010 Update

Figure 2

Mayoralty Vote Intention

(Among Decided Voters)
“Now thinking about the candidates running for mayor, which candidate would you be most likely to
vote for? Even if you haven’t totally made up your mind right now, which candidate are you leaning
toward supporting?”

McIver McIver 37%

37%

Higgins Higgins 33%

33%

Nenshi Nenshi 19%

19%

Hawkesworth
Hawkesworth 4%

Stewart Stewart 3%
Others: less
Burrows Burrows 3% than 1% mentions

Others Others 1%

*Note: Includes “Leaners”

Source: ROI Calgary Quarterly Report, Fall 2010 Base: Decided Voters (n=423)

Figure 3

Campaign Momentum
in the Mayor’s Race
“Over the past month of the election campaign, has your opinion of the following candidates improved,
stayed the same or has it worsened?”
“Worsened” “Improved”
Nenshi
14% (39% same,18% Unsure)
28% +14

Higgins
20% 25% +5
(43% same, 11% Unsure)

McIver
14% (50% same, 12% unsure)
23% +9

Hawkesworth
-2 14% (51% same, 24% Unsure)
12%

Burrows 7% +2
5% (59% same, 29% Unsure)

Stewart
-2 9% (52% same, 31% Unsure)
7%

5% Connelly 5%
(61% same, 29% Unsure)

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Source: ROI Calgary Quarterly Report, Fall 2010 Base: All respondents ( n=501)