Professor, EEE, BUET: A H Chowdhury

  EEE 6906
  Reliability of Power System

  Transmission Line Reliability Assessment
  October 2017
A H Chowdhury
Professor, EEE, BUET
Table of Contents
 Transmission line reliability evaluation methods

 Transmission line reliability indices
 Data requirements
 Example - reliability evaluation of a transmission
corridor
2
2
Transmission Line Reliability Evaluation Methods
Hierarchical levels (HL)

 HL-I refers to generation facilities
and their ability on a pooled basis to Generation
HL-I
satisfy pooled system demand
 HL-II refers to composite generation
Transmission
and transmission system and its system
ability to deliver energy to bulk HL-II
supply points
 HL-III refers to complete system Distribution
system
including distribution and its ability
HL-III
to satisfy capacity and energy
demands of individual consumers
3
3
• Transmission system is part of the HL II
• Two basic techniques applied

i. Contingency Enumeration (analytical)
ii. Monte Carlo simulation
• Contingency enumeration method assesses reliability through analysis of a

selected number of contingencies
• Impact of outage states on system reliability is taken into consideration in

contingency enumeration method
4
• Contingency enumeration method

structured in 4 steps
Step 1: Framework of the analysis specified
• Includes selection of
– power system boundaries
– operating scenarios
– load flow technique
– modeling detail level, etc.
5
Step 2: Contingency (i.e. outage combinations) selection

• Consideration of all possible contingencies unrealistic
• Contingency selection has to be done carefully
– every disregarded contingency adds to inaccuracy of evaluation
• One easy technique is to consider all contingencies up to a specified order
– Example, if second order is chosen, all combinations of up to two failed components are
regarded
– If important contingencies of higher order are identified, these can be added to
contingency list
• Components to consider are related to system specific criteria
– e.g. a system consisting of 2 subsystems interconnected via 2 tie lines
– An outage of those three lines would compose an important contingency
6
• Single component failures often have little impact on system reliability indices
• Failure of multiple independent components have large impact

– not very likely to occur and contribute little to the indices
• Common mode outages, where a single event leads to failure of multiple

components, are important to identify
– Failure of a substation connecting several generators or a tower carrying several power
lines can significantly degrade power system reliability
7
Step 3: Perform load flow for each contingency in each operating scenarios
• Effect analysis: identify possible system problems caused by contingencies
• Load flow may be AC or DC type
• In case of an extensive contingency list, DC load flow used
• DC load flow can not identify voltage problem

– degrade quality of evaluation
• An alternative
– run DC load flow to identify critical contingencies
– calculate again using AC load flow
8
• Problems solvable with corrective actions (e.g. generation rescheduling), do not impact
reliability indices
• Problems not solvable with regular corrective actions may need evasive corrective
actions (e.g. load shedding)
– Such actions do influence reliability indices
– A systems wide power deficit could be solved by load shedding
– Contingencies leading to local problems less sensitive to the chosen load shedding strategy
Step 4: Calculate reliability indices

• Pre-defined reliability indices calculated typically on both load point level and system
level Annualised indices are summed up from all studied operational states and
contingencies
9
Effects Analysis
• Each combination of selected contingency and load level analyzed to determine
effects on system performance
• System performance measured with a set of pre-specified criteria

i. circuit overloads
ii. bus under-voltage and over-voltage
iii. curtailment of interruptible load
iv. curtailment of firm load
v. curtailment of critical load, etc.
10
Challenges
1. Component outage statistics
2. Component reliability data
3. Component reliability models
4. Selecting representative base case system scenarios
5. Contingency analysis of power system model
11
Table of Contents
 Transmission line reliability methods

corridor
12
12
Transmission Line Reliability Indices
• HL II adequacy indices usually expressed and calculated on an annual basis

– Can be calculated for any period such as a season, a month and or a particular
operating condition
• Can also be calculated for a particular load level and expressed on an
annual basis
– designated as annualized values
• HL II adequacy indices can be grouped in two categories
– load point indices
– system indices
• Both are necessary to obtain a complete picture of HL II adequacy
– i.e., these indices complement rather than substitute for each other
– Load point indices identify weak points in system
– System indices provide appreciation of global HL II adequacy and can be used to
compare relative adequacies of different systems
13
13
Table of Contents

corridor
14
14
Data requirements
• Information Management Division (IMD) of National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC)

of PGCB keeps monthly records on outage of transmission lines due to circuit
breaker tripping and emergency maintenance
• Records do not include scheduled maintenance activities
• Data related to UG transmission cable not sufficient to give a statistically

meaningful reliability data
• No data for circuit breakers, current transformer, potential transformer,

lightning arrester and other switchgear components
15
Data requirements
Component outage [IEEE Standard 859-1987]

• Scheduled outage: an intentional manual outage that could have been deferred
without increasing risk to human life, risk to property, or damage to equipment
• Forced outage: an automatic outage, or a manual outage that cannot be deferred
– Classified into four groups: transient, temporary, permanent, and system related outages
• Transient, temporary outages: component is undamaged and can be restored by
manual or automatic switching operations
• Permanent forced outages: component needs to be repaired or replaced before
restored to service
• System related outages: component outage is not caused by a failure in the specific
component, but it is isolated by the system protection equipment
– Transient, temporary and permanent forced outages all caused by component failures that
are modeled as repairable failures
16
Data requirements
• Evaluation result dependent on accuracy of component reliability data

• Major challenge for utilities is to collect, interpret and store outage statistics for
components in the system
• A continuous process; data dynamically updated
• Requires expert knowledge within organization and well connected IT-systems
17
Data requirements
Basic reliability data
Kilometer Years (km.a) summation of product of length in kilometers and period duration in years
for transmission lines or cables under consideration
Terminal Years (a) summation of product of number of terminals and period duration in years for
transmission lines or cables under consideration
A terminal refers to a transmission line or cable end which equipped with primary protection
Number of Sustained Faults number of major component related forced outages lasting one
minute or more
Frequency per 100 km.a (faults/100 km.a) number of outages divided by kilometer years which in
turn are divided by 100
18
18
Data requirements
Frequency (faults/a) is the number of outages divided by the Terminal Years
Total Outage Duration (h) sum of forced unavailable times in hours of equipment related to sustained
forced outages involving indicated subcomponent
Forced unavailable time elapsed time required to completely restore equipment to service
Average Outage Duration (h) total time divided by number of outages
Unavailability (%) product of frequency and average duration divided by number of hours in a year and
expressed as a percentage of one year
19
19
Data requirements
Reliability indices of overhead line and

underground cable
Data source
1. Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB), Monthly reports
on transmission system prepared by the Information
Management Division, LDC, Dhaka
2. Transpower New Zealand Limited report, “Comparison of
the Reliability of a 400 kV Underground Cable with an
Overhead Line for a 200 km Circuit”, 2005
3. Canadian Electricity Association report, “Forced Outage
Performance of Transmission Equipment, For the Period
January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2002”, 2004
4. International Council on Large Electric Systems (CIGRE)
report, “Update of Service Experience of HV Underground
and Submarine Cable System”, 2009
5. “Reliability Evaluation of Substations Subject to Protection
Failures,” MSc Thesis, Deflt University of Technology,
Netherlands, 2012
20
Data requirements
Reliability indices of transmission and substation components
21
Table of Contents

corridor
22
22
Reliability Evaluation of a Transmission Corridor
The problem
Effect on reliability of a double circuit

transmission corridor due to line-in-
line-out (LILO) connection
Single circuit LILO
– Single circuit LILO
– Double circuit LILO
Double circuit LILO
23
23
Basic Principle of Modeling

• Transmission system can be represented as a network
– system components are connected either in series, parallel, meshed or a combination of
these
• Components in a system are considered to be in series if failure of only one

component creates system failure
• Components in a system are considered to be in parallel if all must fail for the
system failure
24
• R1, R2,…, Rn : component reliabilities
• Rs : reliability of series system

n
RS  R1 R2 ........Rn   Ri
i 1
• Q1, Q2,…, Qn : components
unavailabilities
• QP : unavailability of parallel system

n
QP  Q1Q2 ........Qn   Qi
i 1
RP  1  QP
25
Modeling of Switchgear System

Basic switchgear system used to
• (a) represents block model connect or disconnect a bus
• (b) represents single line
connection diagram of different
components
• (c) represents reliability model
of switchgear system
• DS+ES disconnection and

earthing switch
– ‘single pole double throw’ switch
– i.e. when one throw position is
closed the other one is open
26
• Blocks 1, 2, 3, 4 represent DS+ES,

lightning arrester, circuit breaker
and CT+PT
• Malfunction of any one of these
four components trips circuit
• Malfunction of CB requires tripping
of backup CB
• R1, R2, R3, R4 : reliabilities of
corresponding blocks
• Reliability of basic switchgear
system,
RBS  R1R2 R3 R4
27
• Modeling of a Base Case
• Base case for comparing impact of different

LILO configurations on reliability of the
transmission corridor
– double circuit transmission lines between two
buses without any LILO connection
– at the ends of each line, a basic switchgear

system connected
28
• S1, S3, S4, S6 : reliability model of Reliability model of the base

case connection
switchgears at different locations
• L2, L5 : reliability model of two O/H

transmission lines between two buses
– i.e. each of the double circuit line of
the base case is modeled by three
components in series For identical switchgear,
• R1, R2,…., R6 : reliabilities of the RBC  2RBS 2 RL  RBS 4 RL 2

components
3 6 6 RBS=Reliability of basic switchgear
• Reliability of base case, RBC   Ri   Ri   Ri RL=Reliability of transmission line
i 1 i 4 i 1
29
Modeling of Different Configurations of LILO Connections
• Two configurations of double circuit transmission line LILO connection

– single circuit LILO
– double circuit LILO
• Connecting line from the grid to the consumer substation may be of

– O/H lines
– UG cables
– mixture of O/H lines and UG cables
• O/H line or UG cable does not make reliability model different

– only reliability parameters of line differ
30
LILO connection with a mixture of O/H line and UG cable
• Model requires two blocks instead of a single bock for LILO connection
– one representing O/H line and the other representing UG cable
• Generally, grid not affected by abnormalities in distribution system of a consumer

– CB at entrance of consumer substation isolates consumer system from grid during such
abnormalities
– In case of malfunction of this particular CB grid is affected by abnormalities of consumer

system
31
Single Circuit LILO Connection

• LILO connection using O/H, or UG cable
– L represent line
– S represent switchgear
– B represent bus bar
– B7 : bus bar of consumer substation
– S8 : switchgear between bus B7 and

consumer’s transformer
32
Single circuit LILO connection using O/H,

or UG cable
– L, S, B represent line, switchgear, bus bar
• Assuming identical switchgears 3 11 11

RSC   Ri   Ri   Ri
i 1 i 4 i 1
RSC  RBS 2 {RL1  RBS 3 ( RL 2 RL3 RB  RBS 2 RL1RL 2 RL3 RB )}

– RSC= Reliability of the corridor
– RL1=Reliability of line between S1 and S3
– RBS=Reliability of basic switchgear
– RB=Reliability of bus bar
33
Single circuit LILO connection using

combination of O/H and UG cable
• Feeding lines are of UG cable from
both the turn in points up to the
substation bus bar
• Two additional blocks incorporated
in model to represent two pieces of
UG transmission cables
3 13 13
RSC m   Ri   Ri   Ri
i 1 i 4 i 1
RSCm  RBS 2 {RL1  RBS 3 ( RL 2 RC1RB RL 3 RC 2  RBS 2 RL1RL 2 RL 3RB RC1RC 2 )}
34
Double circuit LILO connection using O/H line, or UG cable
3 6 6 8 11 14 14
Rdc  { Ri   Ri   Ri }{ Ri }{ Ri   Ri   Ri }
i 1 i 4 i 1 i 7 i 9 i 12 i 9
Rdc  RBS 5 RB {(2RL1  RBS 2 RL1 )(2RL2  RBS 2 RL2 )}
35
Double circuit LILO connection with a combination of O/H line and UG cable
4 8 8 10 14 18 18
Rdcm  { Ri   Ri   Ri }{ Ri }{ Ri   Ri   Ri }
i 1 i 5 i 1 i 9 i 11 i 15 i 11
Rdcm  RBS 5 RB (2RL11RC11  RBS 2 RL112 RC112 )(2RL 22 RC 22  RBS 2 RL 22 2 RC 22 2 )
36
(+) indicates incremental

value from corresponding
values indicated in ordinate
For example, reliability of

corridor with double circuit
LILO is (999987.0+0.32)×10-4
Comparison of reliabilities between single circuit

and double circuit LILO with O/H line and base
case
37
37
Comparison of reliabilities of LILO

Comparison between reliabilities mixed with O/H line and those with a
line LILO and reliability of base case mixture of O/H line and UG cable
38
Grid reliability with multiple LILO consumers
39
Comparison between LOLPs of

different LILO connections with
that of base case
40

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EEE 6906

Reliability of Power System

 Transmission line reliability evaluation methods

Hierarchical levels (HL)

• Transmission system is part of the HL II

• Two basic techniques applied

ii. Monte Carlo simulation

• Contingency enumeration method assesses reliability through analysis of a

• Impact of outage states on system reliability is taken into consideration in

• Contingency enumeration method

Step 1: Framework of the analysis specified

– load flow technique

– modeling detail level, etc.

Step 2: Contingency (i.e. outage combinations) selection

• Failure of multiple independent components have large impact

• Common mode outages, where a single event leads to failure of multiple

• Effect analysis: identify possible system problems caused by contingencies

• Load flow may be AC or DC type

• In case of an extensive contingency list, DC load flow used

• DC load flow can not identify voltage problem

Step 4: Calculate reliability indices

• System performance measured with a set of pre-specified criteria

ii. bus under-voltage and over-voltage

iii. curtailment of interruptible load

iv. curtailment of firm load

v. curtailment of critical load, etc.

2. Component reliability data

3. Component reliability models

4. Selecting representative base case system scenarios

5. Contingency analysis of power system model

 Transmission line reliability methods

• HL II adequacy indices usually expressed and calculated on an annual basis

 Transmission line reliability evaluation methods

• Information Management Division (IMD) of National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC)

• Records do not include scheduled maintenance activities

• Data related to UG transmission cable not sufficient to give a statistically

• No data for circuit breakers, current transformer, potential transformer,

Component outage [IEEE Standard 859-1987]

• Evaluation result dependent on accuracy of component reliability data

Basic reliability data

Frequency (faults/a) is the number of outages divided by the Terminal Years

Average Outage Duration (h) total time divided by number of outages

Reliability indices of overhead line and

Reliability indices of transmission and substation components

 Transmission line reliability evaluation methods

Effect on reliability of a double circuit

– Double circuit LILO

Double circuit LILO

Basic Principle of Modeling

• Components in a system are considered to be in series if failure of only one

• R1, R2,…, Rn : component reliabilities

• Rs : reliability of series system

• QP : unavailability of parallel system

Modeling of Switchgear System

• DS+ES disconnection and

• Blocks 1, 2, 3, 4 represent DS+ES,

• Modeling of a Base Case

• Base case for comparing impact of different

– at the ends of each line, a basic switchgear

• S1, S3, S4, S6 : reliability model of Reliability model of the base

• L2, L5 : reliability model of two O/H

• R1, R2,…., R6 : reliabilities of the RBC  2RBS 2 RL  RBS 4 RL 2

Modeling of Different Configurations of LILO Connections

  EEE 6906

  Reliability of Power System