The world is getting hotter, and humans are responsible. This is the short version.

1. What is Global Warming?

When people say global warming they are typically referring to the rise in average temperature
of the Earth’s climate system since the late 19th century. Temperatures over land and ocean have
gone up 0.8 Celsius (1.4 Fahrenheit), on average, in that span.

Consensus among Climate Scientists is that this temperature increase has been driven primarily
by the extra greenhouse gases humans have put into atmosphere since the industrial revolution.

a) Greenhouse Effect
When sunlight reaches the surface of the Earth, some of it is absorbed which warms the ground
and some bounces back to space as heat. Greenhouse gases that are in the atmosphere absorb
and then redirect some of this heat back towards the Earth. This blanket effect of GHGs is known
as greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect increases the temperature of the Earth by trapping heat in our
atmosphere. This keeps the temperature of the Earth higher than it would be if direct heating by
the Sun was the only source of warming.

The greenhouse effect is a natural process that is millions of years old. It plays a critical role in
regulating the overall temperature of the Earth. Earth’s average normal surface temperature is
almost 15 C (59 F), without greenhouse effect it would have been -19 C (2 F).

The problem is the increase influx of Greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by humans: Vast
majority of emissions are carbon dioxide followed by methane and nitrous oxide. These emissions
have increased the greenhouse effect and caused earth’s tempreture to rise. Therefore, it is called
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.

A report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, established in 1988) projects
that temperature could rise at least 2 C (3.6 F) by the end of the century under many plausible
scenarios-----and possibly 4 C or more.

b) Green House Emission Metrics

Among the countries of the world, disagreements exist over which greenhouse gas emission
metrics should be used like

 total emissions per year

 per capita emissions per year
 CO2 emissions only
 deforestation emissions
 livestock emissions
 total historical emissions

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 c) Where do Green House Gas Emissions come from?
The earth already had greenhouse gases in its atmosphere before humans came along as part of
the natural carbon cycle. But as explained above since industrial revolution humans have
exponentially increased emissions of certain greenhouse gases i-e carbon dioxide, methane etc.

We can divide the sources of man-made greenhouse gases into three broad gategories:
a) Fossil fuels
-Roughly 25% of man-made greenhouse gases come from burning coal
-19% from use of natural gas
-21% from oil
b) Land-use change
15% of man-made greenhouse emissions came from land-use changes i-e Forests acts as
carbon sink in our atmosphere thus deforestation is reducing our carbon sink.

c) Agriculture
Another 7% of man-made greenhouse emissions came from agriculture sources. For
example, methane emissions from livestock, or changes in the amount of carbon stored
in soil.

2- How do we know Global Warming is Real?

Simplest way is temperature measurements around the globe by different independent voluntary
agencies through a particular span of time. Other clues are:

1) Increase in the melting rates of glaciers and ice sheets.

2) Satellite observations since 1970 have shown warming in the lower atmosphere.
3) Ocean levels are rising due to more heat in the oceans causing water to expand. In addition,
the melted water from glaciers and ice sheets are also added to the oceans.
4) Early Flowering of Plants in many parts of the world.
5) Increased percentage of humidity in the atmosphere.

3- How do we know Humans are causing Global Warming?

It's like the smoking-cancer link: No one questions the link between smoking and cancer, because
the science was settled in the 1960s after more than 50 years of research. We can think of the state of
human activities and climate change as no different than smoking and cancer.

In fact, we are statistically more confident that humans cause climate change than that smoking causes
cancer.

Unprecedented Warming: Earth's surface has undergone unprecedented warming over the last century,
and especially in this century. Every single year since 1977 has been warmer than the 20th century
average, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001, and 2016 being the warmest
year on recorded history. A study from 2016 found that without the emissions from burning coal and oil,
there is very little likelihood that 13 out of the 15 warmest years on record would all have happened.

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So what's the evidence? 0The research falls into nine independently studied, but physically
related, lines of evidence:
1. Simple chemistry – when we burn carbon-based materials, carbon dioxide (CO2) is
emitted (research beginning in 1900s).

2. Basic accounting of what we burn, and therefore how much CO2 we emit (data collection
beginning in 1970s).

3. Measuring CO2 in the atmosphere and trapped in ice to find that it is increasing and that the
levels are higher than anything we've seen in hundreds of thousands of years (measurements
beginning in 1950s).

4. Chemical analysis of the atmospheric CO2 that reveals the increase is coming from burning
fossil fuels (research beginning in 1950s).

5. Basic physics that shows us that CO2 absorbs heat (research beginning in 1820s).

6. Monitoring climate conditions to find that recent warming of the Earth is correlated to and
follows rising CO2 emissions (research beginning in 1930s).

7. Ruling out natural factors that can influence climate like the sun and ocean cycles (research
beginning in 1830s).

8. Employing computer models to run experiments of natural versus human-influenced

simulations of Earth (research beginning in 1960s)

9. Consensus among scientists who consider all previous lines of evidence and make their own
conclusions (polling beginning in 1990s)

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How has Global Warming effected the World so far?
1) High Temperatures: Every continent has warmed substantially since the 1950s. There are more
hot days and fewer cold days on average, and the hot days are hotter. Moreover, every single
year since 1977 has been warmer than the 20th century average, with 16 of the 17 warmest
years on record occurring since 2001, and 2016 being the warmest year on recorded history.

2) Heavier Storms: World’s atmosphere can hold more moisture as it warms. Subsequently, the
overall number of heavier storms has likely increased since midcentury, particularly North
America and Europe.

3) Heat Waves: Have likely become longer and more frequent around the world in the past 50
years, particularly in Europe, Asia and Australia.

4) Shrinking Sea Ice: Extent of sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk since 1979, by between 3.5% and
4.5% per decade, on average. Summer ice has dwindled even more rapidly.

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 5) Shrinking Glaciers: Glaciers around the world has been losing ice exponentially since the 1970s.

6) Sea-Level Rise: Global Sea levels rose 25 cm (9.8 Inches) in the 19th and 20th centuries, after
2000 years of relatively little change. Sea level rise is caused by both the thermal expansion of
the oceans--- as water warms up, it expands---- and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.

7) Food Supply: A hotter climate can be both good for crops (it lengthens the growing season, and
more carbon dioxide can increase photosynthesis) and bad for crops (excess heat can damage
plants). The IPCC found that global warming was currently benefiting crops in some high
latitude areas, but the negative effects were becoming increasingly common worldwide.

8) Shifting Species: Many land and marine species had to shift their geographical ranges in
response to warmer temperatures. A few extinctions have been linked to global warming i-e
certain frog species in Central America.

Future Projections?
Humans are forcing heat trapping substances into the atmosphere at a terrifying pace. We pump out
more than 10 billion tons of carbon on the back of about 50 billion tons of CO2 equivalent hothouse
gasses into the atmosphere each year. This massive volume is the upshot of an inexorably rising
emission starting during the 19th century and continuing to this day. By the end of this century, rates of
burning could again increase nearly threefold.

Scientists expect average temperatures to rise and additional 1C to 4C in the century ahead if
greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise (between 2.7 F to 7.2 F).

Why the huge range of projections? There are two key variables here.

Climate Sensitivity: Climate scientists still aren’t exactly sure how much the world will warm if we keep
pumping greenhouse gases into atmosphere. Currently, the best estimate is that the Earth’s average
temperature will increase between 1.5 C to 4.5 C every time we double the amount of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere. That estimate, known as climate sensitivity, is derived from a variety of sources.

Future growth of emissions: That is something much, much harder to predict. It depends on how our
economies grow and what sort of energy sources we will use.

Scientists often lay out scenarios, as the IPCC projections puts it:

Blue Line: If we manage to cut global emissions immediately and drastically, we have a shot at keeping
the additional global warming to around 1C, that’s the blue line.

Red Line: But if the emissions keep rising unchecked then temperatures could rise an extra 4 C or more,
that’s the red line.

Add up past global warming and future global warming, and the IPCC says that by 2100, the world will
likely be at least 1.5 C hotter than it was in the pre-industrial era. The key question is whether we will
exceed 2 C of total global warming (compared with pre-industrial era). That is the level most world
leaders have said is unacceptable.

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Has Global Warming Slowed Down Recently?
Global warming certainly has not stopped. The past decade was clearly the warmest decade on record---
and 2016 was the hottest year on record.

That said, the rate of temperature increase in the last 15 years does appear to be slightly slower than it
was in 20 years before that. So what is happening? This may simply be due to natural variability.
Average temperatures can bounce a bit from year to year due to a variety of factors like:

 Volcanic eruptions
 Fluctuations in Solar activity
 El Nino or El Nina cycles (that shift heat in and out of the oceans).

How do we STOP Global Warming?

Let’s say we wanted to limit global warming to below 2 C. To do that, the IPCC has calculated that the
annual greenhouse emissions would need to drop at least 40% to 70% by midcentury.

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Emissions would then have to keep falling until humans were hardly emitting any extra greenhouse
gases by the end of the century. We would also likely need to pull some carbon dioxide out of the
atmosphere.

Right now, the world gets 87% of its primary energy from fossil fuels: oil, gas and coal. By contrast, just
13% of the World’s primary energy is “low-carbon”: a little bit of wind and solar power, some nuclear
power plants and a bunch of hydroelectric dams.

To stay below 2C, that would all need to change radically. BY 2050, the IPCC notes, the world would
need to triple or even quadruple the share of clean energy it uses--- and keep scaling it thereafter.

Second, we would have to get dramatically more efficient at using energy in our homes, buildings, and
cars. And stop cutting down forests. And reduce emissions from agriculture and from industrial
processes like cement manufacturing.

Consensus-driven global political institutions

UNFCC: The UNFCCC objective is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".

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UNFCCC Climate Action Now, Summary for Policymakers, November 2015

Kyoto Protocol (1997) & Doha Agreement (2012)

The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits state parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
based on the scientific consensus that (part one) global warming is occurring and (part two) it is extremely
likely that human-made CO2 emissions have predominantly caused it. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted
in Kyoto, Japan on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. There are currently
192 parties (Canada withdrew effective December 2012) to the Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol implemented the objective of the UNFCCC to fight global warming by reducing
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to "a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (Article 2). The Kyoto Protocol applies to the six

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greenhouse gases listed in Annex A: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O),
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). [6]

The Protocol is based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities: it acknowledges that
individual countries have different capabilities in combating climate change, owing to economic
development, and ergo puts the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the
basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The Protocol's first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. A second commitment
period was agreed on in 2012, known as the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, in which 37
countries have binding targets: Australia, the European Union (and its 28 member
states), Belarus, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Ukraine. Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine have stated that they may withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol or not put into
legal force the Amendment with second round targets. Japan, New Zealand and Russia have participated
in Kyoto's first-round but have not taken on new targets in the second commitment period. Other
developed countries without second-round targets are Canada (which withdrew from the Kyoto
Protocol in 2012) and the United States (which has not ratified). As of July 2016, 66 states have
accepted the Doha Amendment, while entry into force requires the acceptances of 144 states. Of the
37 countries with binding commitments, 7 have ratified.

Negotiations were held in the framework of the yearly UNFCCC Climate Change Conferences on measures
to be taken after the second commitment period ends in 2020. This resulted in the 2015 adoption of
the Paris Agreement, which is a separate instrument under the UNFCCC rather than an amendment of the
Kyoto Protocol.

Paris Agreement (12 DEC 2015)

The Paris Agreement (French: Accord de Paris) is an agreement within the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), dealing with greenhouse-gas-emissions mitigation, adaptation,
and finance, starting in the year 2020.

12 December 2015: World leaders meet in Paris, France for the 21st Conference of the Parties of the
UNFCCC. The agreement will only enter into force provided that 55 parties to the convention that
produce at least 55% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions ratify, accept, approve or accede to the
agreement; although the minimum number of ratifications has been reached, the ratifying states do not
produce the requisite percentage of greenhouse gases for the agreement to enter into force.

1 June 2017: President Donald Trump withdraws the United States from the Paris Agreement

As of July 2018, 195 UNFCCC members have signed the agreement, and 179 have become party to it.

 The Paris Agreement's long-term goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to
well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels; and to limit the increase to 1.5 °C, since this would
substantially reduce the risks and effects of climate change.

The Paris Agreement commits countries to pledge not to just keep global warming “well below two
degrees Celsius,” but also to “pursue efforts” to limit warming to 1.5 degrees by 2018.

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Several research studies, including one carried out by Daniel Mitchell and others at Oxford University,
state that while the difference between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees will be marginal in annual average
temperature, it would have a significant impact on reducing the probability of destructive weather events
like floods, droughts, and heat waves.

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Paris Agreement: What Does the Paris Agreement DO?

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Consensus-driven global political institutions Explained
The primary mechanism for the world to tackle global warming is through a process established under
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) treaty. The current state of
global warming politics is that there is frustration over a perceived lack of progress with the
establish UNFCCC overall process which has progressed over eighteen years but which has been unable
to curb global greenhouse gas emissions. Todd Stern—the US Climate Change envoy—has expressed the
challenges with the UNFCCC process as follows, "Climate change is not a conventional environmental issue
... It implicates virtually every aspect of a state's economy, so it makes countries nervous about growth
and development. This is an economic issue every bit as it is an environmental one." He went on to explain
that, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a multilateral body concerned with
climate change and can be an inefficient system for enacting international policy. Because the framework
system includes over 190 countries and because negotiations are governed by consensus, small groups of
countries can often block progress.

The eighteenth conference of the parties held in Doha, Qatar, 2012 United Nations Climate Change
Conference, yielded minor to modest results. At the 2012 Doha climate change talks, Parties to the Kyoto
Protocol agreed to an extension of the Kyoto Protocol to 2020.[14][15][16] Participants in the extension to the
Kyoto Protocol have taken on targets for the period 2013–2020, and include Australia, the European
Union, and a number of other developed countries. Canada, which withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in
2011, and the United States—which never ratified the Kyoto Protocol—have been joined by New
Zealand, Japan, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine who have stated that they would not sign up to a
second Kyoto Protocol commitment period or extension due lack of commitments from the developing
world which today include the world's largest CO2 emitters. Japan and New Zealand also added that their

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country's CO2 emissions are minor when compared to the emissions of China, The United States, and the
European Union. These defections place significant pressures on the UNFCCC process which to date has
not been able to curtail CO2 emissions, whose latest Kyoto Protocol extension only accounts for 15% of
greenhouse gas emissions,] and whose process is seen by some as slow, cumbersome, expensive and an
inefficient use of taxpayer money: in the UK alone the climate change department has taken over 3,000
flights over the course of two years at a cost to the taxpayer of over ₤1,500,000. The outcome of the Doha
talks has received a mixed response, with small island states critical of the overall package. Other results
of the conference include a timetable for a global agreement to be adopted by 2015 which includes all
countries.

As a result, some have argued that perhaps the consensus driven model could be replaced with a
majority vote model. However, that model would likely drive disagreement at the country-level-
ratification by countries who disagreed with any global treaties that might passed through a majority vote
at such restructured institutions.

Voluntary emissions reductions (2010 Cancún agreements)

The perceived slow process of efforts for countries to agree to a comprehensive global level binding
agreements has led some countries to seek independent/voluntary steps and focus on alternative high-
value voluntary activities like the creation of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived
Climate Pollutants by the United States, Canada, Mexico, Bangladesh, and Sweden which seeks to
regulate short-lived pollutants such as methane, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) which
together are believed to account for up to 1/3 of current global warming but whose regulation is not as
fraught with wide economic impacts and opposition. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-
Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC) was launched on February 16, 2012 to regulate short-lived climate
pollutants (SLCPs) that together contribute up to 1/3 of global warming. The coalition's creation is seen
as a necessary and pragmatic step given the slow pace of global climate change agreements under the
UNFCCC.

As part of the 2010 Cancún agreements, 76 developed and developing countries have made voluntary
pledges to control their emissions of greenhouse gases. These voluntary steps are seen by some as a new
model where countries pledge to voluntarily take action against global warming outside of international
treaties or obligations to other parties. This voluntary mechanism, while promising, does not address
many of the challenges seen by the developing world in their efforts to mitigate global warming, adapt to
global warming, and increasingly to deal with losses and damages that they directly attribute to global
warming that they blame on the developed world's historical emissions.

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Politics of Global Warming
The complex politics of global warming results from numerous cofactors arising from the global
economy's interdependence on carbon dioxide (CO2) emitting hydrocarbon energy sources and because
CO2 is directly implicated in global warming—making global warming a non-traditional environmental
challenge.

1) Nontraditional environmental challenge

Traditional environmental challenges generally involve behavior by a small group of industries

who create products or services for a limited set of consumers in a manner that causes some form
of damage to the environment which is clear. As an example, a gold mine might release a
dangerous chemical byproduct into a waterway that kills the fish in the waterway: a clear
environmental damage.

By contrast, CO2 is a naturally occurring colorless odorless trace gas that is essential to the
biosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is produced by all animals and utilized by plants and algae to
build their body structures. Plant structures buried for tens of millions of years sequester carbon
to form coal, oil and gas which modern industrial societies find essential to economic vitality. Over
80% of the world’s energy is derived from CO2 emitting fossil fuels and over 91% of the world's
energy is derived from non carbon-neutral energy sources. Scientists attribute the increases of
CO2 in the atmosphere to industrial emissions and scientists have linked CO2 to global warming.
However, the scientific consensus is difficult for the average individual layperson to readily see
and grasp. This essential nature to the world's economies combined with the complexity of the
science and the interests of countless interested parties make climate change a non-traditional
environmental challenge.

2) Carbon dioxide and a nation-state's economy

The vast majority of developed countries rely on CO2 emitting energy sources for large
components of their economic activity. Fossil fuel energy generally dominates the following areas
of an OECD economy:

• agriculture (fertilizers, irrigation, plowing, planting, harvesting, pesticides)

• transportation & distribution (automobiles, shipping, trains, airplanes)

• storage (refrigeration, warehousing)

• national defense (armies, tanks, military aircraft, manufacture of munitions)

In addition, CO2 emitting fossil fuels many times dominate the utilities aspect of an economy that
provide electricity for:

• lighting

• heating & cooling

• refrigeration

• production of products

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 • computing and telecommunications

Also, activities like cement production, deforestation, brick production, livestock raising,
refrigeration and other industrial activity contributes greenhouse gases that together are believed
to account for 1/3 of global warming.

Because CO2 emitting fossil fuels are intrinsically connected to a developed nation-state's
economy, the taxation of fossil fuels or policies that decrease the availability of cost-effective
fossil fuels is a significant political matter for fear that those taxes might precipitate a decrease in
economic vitality. The replacement of cost-effective fossil fuels with more expensive renewable
energy sources are seen by many as a hidden tax that would achieve the same result of depressing
economic vitality and lead to impoverishment. Beyond the economic vitality of a single nation,
some are concerned that taxation would depress economic activity in a manner that could affect
the geopolitical order by providing incentives to one set of countries over another.

In developing countries, the challenges are slightly different. Developing countries see CO2
emitting fossil fuels as a cost effective and proven energy source to fuel their growing economies.
Sometimes renewable energy technologies are not readily available to developing countries
because of cost or due to export restrictions from developed countries who own those
technologies.

3) Global warming politics focus areas

Government politics regarding climate change and many official reports on the subject usually
revolve around addressing one of the following topic areas:

 Adaptation: social and other changes that must be undertaken to successfully adapt to climate
change. Adaptation might encompass, but is not limited to, changes in agriculture and urban
planning.

 Finance: how countries will finance adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, whether from
public or private sources or from wealth/technology transfers from developed countries to
developing countries and the management mechanisms for those monies.

 Mitigation: steps and actions that the countries of the world can take to mitigate the effects of
climate change.

 Technology: the technologies that are needed lower carbon emissions through increasing energy
efficiency or replacement or CO2 emitting technologies and technologies needed to adapt or
mitigate climate change. Also encompasses ways that developed countries can support
developing countries in adopting new technologies or increasing efficiency.

 Loss and damage: first articulated at the 2012 conference and in part based on the agreement
that was signed at the 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun. It introduces
the principle that countries vulnerable to the effects of climate change may be financially
compensated in future by countries that fail to curb their carbon emissions.

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4) Short Summary: Politics of Global Warming

1. Implications to all aspects of a nation-state's economy: The vast majority of the world economy
relies on energy sources or manufacturing techniques that release greenhouse gases at almost
every stage of production, transportation, storage, delivery & disposal while a consensus of the
world's scientists attribute global warming to the release of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This
intimate linkage between global warming and economic vitality implicates almost every aspect of
a nation-state's economy;[5]

2. Perceived lack of adequate advanced energy technologies: Fossil fuel abundance and low prices
continue to put pressure on the development of adequate advanced energy technologies that can
realistically replace the role of fossil fuels—as of 2010, over 91% of the world's energy is derived
from fossil fuels and non-carbon-neutral technologies.[6] Developing countries do not have cost
effective access to the advanced energy technologies that they need for development (most
advanced technologies has been developed by and exist in the developed world). Without
adequate and cost effective post-hydrocarbon energy sources, it is unlikely the countries of the
developed or developing world would accept policies that would materially affect their economic
vitality or economic development prospects;

3. Industrialization of the developing world: As developing nations industrialize their energy needs
increase and since conventional energy sources produce CO2, the CO2emissions of developing
countries are beginning to rise at a time when the scientific community, global governance
institutions and advocacy groups are telling the world that CO2 emissions should be decreasing.
Without access to cost effective and abundant energy sources many developing countries see
climate change as a hindrance to their unfettered economic development;

4. Metric selection (transparency) and perceived responsibility / ability to respond: Among the
countries of the world, disagreements exist over which greenhouse gas emission metrics should
be used like total emissions per year, per capita emissions per year, CO2 emissions only,
deforestation emissions, livestock emissions or even total historical emissions. Historically, the
release of CO2 has not been historically even among all nation-states and nation-states have
challenges with determining who should restrict emissions and at what point of their industrial
development they should be subject to such commitments;

5. Vulnerable developing countries and developed country legacy emissions: Some developing
nations blame the developed world for having created the global warming crisis because it was
the developed countries that emitted most of the CO2 over the twentieth century and vulnerable
countries perceive that it should be the developed countries that should pay to address the
challenge;

6. Consensus-driven global governance models: The global governance institutions that evolved
during the 20th century are all consensus driven deliberative forums where agreement is difficult
to achieve and even when agreement is achieved it is almost impossible to enforce;

7. Well organized and funded special-interest lobbying bodies: Special interest lobbying by well
organized groups distort and amplify aspects of the challenge (environmental lobbying, energy
industry lobbying, other special interest lobbying);

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 8. Politicization of climate science: Although there is a consensus on the science of global warming
and its likely effects—some special interests groups work to suppress the consensus while others
work to amplify the alarm of global warming. All parties that engage in such acts add to the
politicization of the science of global warming. The result is a clouding of the reality of the global
warming problem.

The focus areas for global warming politics are Adaptation, Mitigation, Finance, Technology and Losses
which are well quantified and studied but the urgency of the global warming challenge combined with the
implication to almost every facet of a nation-state's economic interests places significant burdens on the
established largely-voluntary global institutions that have developed over the last century; institutions
that have been unable to effectively reshape themselves and move fast enough to deal with this unique
challenge.

Rapidly developing countries who see traditional energy sources as a means to fuel their development,
well-funded aggressive environmental lobbying groups and an established fossil fuel energy paradigm
boasting a mature and sophisticated political lobbying infrastructure all combine to make global warming
politics extremely polarized. Distrust between developed and developing countries at most international
conferences that seek to address the topic add to the challenges. Further adding to the complexity is the
advent of the Internet and the development of media technologies like blogs and other mechanisms for
disseminating information that enable the exponential growth in production and dissemination of
competing points of view which make it nearly impossible for the development and dissemination of an
objective view into the enormity of the subject matter and its politics.

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Climate Change and Migration
There is a direct and deep linkage between climate change and migration. The International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) assessed that the magnitude of human displacement may increase due to climate
change in the 21st century. There is a difference between climate refugees and climate migrants. Those
who leave their place of residency because of sudden environmental change are referred to as
environmental refugees, while those who leave due to gradual, long-term climate change are called
climate-induced migrants. Generally, there are three types of migration patterns induced by changes in
the environment and climate:

1) temporary migration due to cloud bursts, torrential rains, flash floods and so on. Such migrants
temporarily leave their homes with the hope to return after the calamity is over;

2) permanent migration due to sea intrusion, in which the seawater encroaches the coastline and forces
people to move permanently further inland; and

3) migration caused by Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), in which people live a nomadic life under
climate insecurities.

Pakistan’s Climate Change Plight (a dangerous, difficult, or otherwise

unfortunate situation)
How is Pakistan affected by climate change?
Pakistan ranks seventh among the most adversely affected countries by climate change on the
Global Climate Risk Index 2017. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas
(GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change by the
following ways:

1. Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding will affect water resources
within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows over time
as glaciers recede.

2. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and
reduce availability of freshwater for the population.

3. Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due
to increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.

4. Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop

yields in Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production. Combining the
decreased yields with the current rapid population growth and urbanization in the country,
the risk of hunger and food security will remain high.

5. Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and
droughts are expected to rise. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the
abundance of cholera.

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 6. The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource
use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and
changes in migration patterns.

7. Pakistani climate-induced migration is mainly caused by floods and heat stress, which force
people to migrate temporarily or permanently. For example, people in Gilgit-Baltistan over
the past few years have faced unpredictable extreme weather conditions, resulting in
torrential rains, flash floods and landslides. These conditions forced people to migrate.

8. Monsoon and snowfall patterns have also shifted due to a rise in temperature in Pakistan in
the past few decades. The summer monsoon has shifted toward the end of the season and
the winter rains have shifted toward late February and March. Likewise, the snowfall season
in Pakistan that usually started in November and ended by December now extends through
March.

Climate Financing
According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate finance is
critical in addressing climate change because large-scale investments are required to adapt to changing
climates, reducing emissions, and shifting to a more sustainable future.

Based on some indicators, with the ADB Climate Change profile of Pakistan being a case in point, a number
of mitigation and adaptation measures have been taken by the government using domestic resources.
But Pakistan is still awaiting international funding required to intensify its efforts using capacity building
and technology for its National Adaptation Plan.

Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) submitted to the 2015 Paris Agreement, aims to
reduce up to 20 percent of its 2030 projected GHG emissions — using international grants for adaptation
and mitigation of approximately $40 billion.

“It is very important for temperatures to remain below 1.5 degrees because natural extreme weather
events are going to become the norm — especially in Pakistan and other mid-latitude countries,” says
Sidra Adil, an environmental engineer and GIS analyst.

Over the past 50 years, the annual mean temperature in Pakistan has already increased by roughly 0.5
degrees.

The government expects to get international grants worth between $7 and $14 billion each year to be
able to adapt to climate change, and the Senate passed a policy in 2017 that called upon the creation of
Pakistan Climate Change Authority to manage said funds.

Little has come of it so far, and there is no concrete indication that the Global Climate Fund will be
providing the required financial resources.

“There is little to no knowledge of any such funding from the GCF (Global Climate Fund) to help in the
mitigation and adaptation against climate change,” says Fatima Fasih, Program Manager for Sustainable
Development at the Centre of Excellence in Responsible Business (CERB).

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 Pakistan’s Specific Climate Change Problems and Proposed Solutions
According to some statistics, between 1997 and 2016, Pakistan suffered from 141 extreme weather events
and lost an average of 523.1 lives per year due to climate change effects.

The super-flood in 2010 killed 1,600 people, affecting an area of 38,600 square kilometers and caused a
financial loss of more than $10 billion. The 2015 heatwave in Karachi led to the death of more than 1,200
people.

 As average global temperatures rise, impacts across the country will vary widely, from glacial
melting in the North to an increase in sea levels in southern coastal areas.

Many of these events will be unpredictable and possibly volatile, “such as increase in number of extreme
events, such as droughts and hurricanes,” explains Fasih.

Some repercussions, however, can be predicted.

“The impacts of rising temperatures are huge as increase in glacial melt will increase in flooding around
the flood banks of River Indus over the next few decades,” says Fasih.

 Based on ADB’s Climate Change profile of Pakistan, the sea level is expected to rise by an
additional 60 centimeters by end of the century.
 The melting glaciers will also lead to more freshwater converting to seawater and worsening
water scarcity.

“Even a rise of 1.5 isn’t desirable but that extra 0.5 degrees will make the situation a lot more dire,” says
Adil. “We don’t have enough water storage options and are well on the way to becoming a water scarce
nation.”

 For a country where more than 50 percent of the population is directly or otherwise dependent
on agricultural activities, the impacts of this would be serious.

“The [difference of] 0.5 degrees increase in temperatures means a lot for people that depend largely on
the weather cycles for their business and farms — which is majority of our business sector and rural
areas,” Fasih says.

 The loss of freshwater supply will also impact production of hydropower at Pakistan’s dams, such
as Mangla and Tarbela.

“Considering how big the issue of energy is to us Pakistanis, this impact will surely hit across the country,”
adds Fasih.

Adil states that while no rise in temperatures is ideal, that 0.5 degree difference is not trivial.

“It won’t be as bad or as intense as 2C of course,” she says. “1.5 degrees gives us the room for a trade-off
to work on climate strategies.”

 According to a report by Yale University, should global emissions continue to rise beyond 2020,
or even remain level, the temperature goals set in Paris become almost unattainable.

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“It is very important to transition to renewable energies but our emissions aren’t that high — the main
problem right now is that we are on the receiving end of high emissions from other countries,” says Adil.

The Federal Minister for Climate Change Zahid Hamid pointed out at the 2016 United Nations Climate
Change Conference that despite ranking among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change,
Pakistan emits less than 1 percent of total annual global greenhouse gases.

“Climate influences us as a whole — it is not a regional concept. It is a global concept,” Adil adds.

There is almost unanimous international agreement on this point: that climate change is a global
phenomenon and no country alone can deal with the issue.

 The technology-driven transition to 100 percent renewable energy globally is well under way, a
trend that made the 2015 Paris climate agreement possible. And there are already signs that this
is paying off.

Just in the past three years, global emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have
leveled after rising for decades as major polluters and other nations are starting to boost renewable
energy sources.

According to Mission2020, the installed capacity of renewable energy set a new record of 161 gigawatts
in 2017; in 2015, investment levels reached $286 billion worldwide, more than six times than in 2004.

And over half of that investment, $156 billion, was for projects in developing and emerging economies.

“This is a sign that policies and investments in climate mitigation are starting to pay off,” says Andrew
Higham, CEO of Mission2020, in a report. “But there is still a long way to go to decarbonize the world
economy.”

 For Pakistan, this transition to renewable energy could take at least a decade, if not more. But
experts state that implementation of natural climate solutions on a smaller scale is as important
a step today.

“We can’t even provide electricity to 60 percent of our population through coal — that we have an
abundance of,” says Adil. “So it is impossible for us to transition to renewable energy right away. Policies
have to change and this will take 10-15 years for the very least.”

But for that to take place, the government needs to allocate the right resources, hire trained individuals,
lose short-sightedness for projects that bring quick profits at the expense of sustainability, and create
awareness about the issue.

“Despite having a Ministry of Climate Change, there is very little that it has done thus far, since most of
its powers and budget has been slashed by the current elected government,” says Fasih.

 But that is not speaking for the entire country; the private sector may be moving in a different
direction.

Fasih, who works on the private sector’s track record on the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
in Pakistan says that a lot of efforts are being made by the private sector – both by big business, as well
as entrepreneurs, to combat climate change in Pakistan.

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  Textile and agriculture-based companies, for instance, that comply with standards abroad, are
now actively pursuing environmental stewardship via waste reduction, ethical consumption,
water conservation, and reduction in emissions.

Many NGOs, such as Climate50, founded by Adil, are also working on building expert networks to work on
awareness and implementation of natural climate change solutions.

 But Fasih adds that it is necessary at present to engage local communities (both urban and rural)
to understand climate change, mitigate against it, and adapt natural solutions to climate using
citizen and civic movements.

“Unless the government does not prioritize increasing awareness amongst the citizens, very little
difference can be made by projects that require billions of dollars in funding,” adds Fasih.

What measures can be taken to cope with climate change?

1. Increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change

2. Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information
systems to enhance disaster preparedness

3. Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses

4. Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural changes

5. Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and
adaptation

6. Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and
irrigation techniques

7. Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation

8. Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability
assessment and implementation of adaptation

9. Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors

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