India Retail:

Stepping Up the Game!

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 1

2 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
The retail ecosystem in India is at the
forefront of change. As consumers expect
experience to become hygiene, retail as an
industry is going through seismic shifts to
become much more diverse and vibrant.
Trends being witnessed are rationalisation
of supply, increased investor interest,
omni-channel retailing and strong growth
in ‘Experiential’ retailing. This paper, ‘India
Retail: Stepping Up the Game’ analyses
some of these trends and showcases
a promising future for growth of Indian
malls and Retail as a whole. As the current
total stock of 76 million sq ft of mall space
appears to drift closer to the 100 million
sq ft mark over the next three to four
years, there will be several changes in the
“experience” shoppers will get visiting them.
Rationalisation of supply is highlighted
in the paper with superior quality malls
estimated to form 62% of the total supply in
the future (2018-2022) compared with 46%
(2008-2012). Developers are making use of
past experiences and learnings to create
more and superior quality malls. Some of
the key factors determining the success
of malls will be design, varied tenant mix,
strength of catchment, infrastructure,
amenities etc. But an increasingly
influencing factor will be the mall’s ability
to counter shoppers’ expectation for
‘experience’. The paper also explores the
key factors that lead to the success of
a mall through relevant case studies. It
also debunks the often held theory that
successful malls cannot exist in close
proximity to each other.
After creating a strong foothold in
purchasing income yielding office assets
in India, the PE investor will see increased
interest in participating in development in
new malls and regenerating existing malls.
Various new regulations like easing foreign
investment for single-brand retailers,
longer shopping hours and an updated
framework for establishing Real Estate
Investment Trusts (REITs) have attracted
the attention of various Private Equity (PE)
funds and this trend will continue.
Another case study in the paper evaluates
the growing importance of F&B which
is becoming the key USP for malls. In
fact, over the past five years, the space
take up by F&B is gaining faster footprint
across malls, and will in future be the true
‘Experiential’ differentiator.
The paper has touched upon a few
key trends and its special focus on
consolidation is very relevant today with
the retail sector witnessing increased
activity in terms of acquisitions and
mergers. I hope you enjoy the read!
Best regards,
Ramesh Nair
CEO & Country Head
JLL India
ramesh.nair@ap.jll.com
India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 3
4 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
Tab of contents
The Evolution of Organised Retail 6

Supply - Demand Dynamics of India Retail 8

Grade-wise Mall Vacancy 12

Factors Determining the Success of a Mall 13

Case Study: A Story of 3 Mumbai Malls Defying the Odds 18

Increase in Investor Interest in Retail 20

Way Forward 22

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 5

 The Evolution of
Organised Retail
Towards the end of the previous millennium, organised retail as a concept started
gaining traction in India.

Malls started coming up in the top Indian cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai.

There was a novelty factor attached with shopping malls which led to decent footfall
right from the beginning.

The retail sector started growing at a rapid pace, and with an increase in spending
capacity among consumers, developers started sensing an opportunity and
developed malls. This led to an increase in the number of malls.

Consumers had the luxury of fulfilling all of their shopping needs – primarily Apparel,
Accessories, Food & Beverage, Electronics, etc – in air-conditioned spaces. The mall
also became a popular hang-out spot for families and youngsters alike.

‘Entertainment’ as a concept did not exist in the malls yet, which is why the older malls
are seen without any provision for cinemas and entertainment centres.

Multiplexes emerged in the first half of the 2000s after which they started occupying
space in the malls, offering a new experience to people and generating more footfall.

In 2011, net supply of malls reached a high after which there was a rationalisation in
supply in the next few years. From 2012-15, similar levels of absorption and supply
were seen.

In the past couple of years, mall management has evolved and is more focused
on experiential retail. More international brands have entered, the number of
promotional activities and events in the malls have increased, and there are also pop-
up stores to generate interest among people.

6 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game

 Growth of Mall Space in India Over the Years
76
80
70
67
70
62
61
Cumulative Mall Stock in India (mn sq ft)

60 55
52

50
40
40
34
28
30
21
20 14
11
8
10 5
1 1
0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

Cumulative Number 212

219 232
246

of Mall Openings
203
188
180
152
Over the Years 115
130

90
69
54
37
24
4 8
1 2 3

1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cumulative Number of Mall Openings Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 7

 Supply -Demand
Dynamics of Indian Retail
• 2011 witnessed record supply and quality* malls are either getting converted
absorptions of mall space in India to other use or downgraded to a Grade B
• Thereafter, there has been a slow
shopping centers.
growth of the sector due to overall GDP • This resulted in negative supply for the
slowdown and weaker consumer and first time in 2016
investor sentiment • Future years look bright with a healthy
• Recently, there has been supply pipeline and robust absorptions
rationalisationof mall space, particularly
in NCR and Mumbai Metro Region. Poor

16 25%

14

20%
12
Completions / Absorption (million sq ft)

13.8

10
10.7

15%

Vacancy (%)
8

6
7.4
6.9
6.5

10%
5.7

5.5

5.3

4
5.1
5.1

4.6
4.5

4.5
4.1
4.2

4.0

3.6

3.2
3.3

2
2.7

5%
1.6
1.3

0.8
0.3

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
-2 0%
Net Completions Net Absorption Vacancy
Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

*The malls have been graded as poor, average or superior based on the following criteria:

Vacancy Level of mall Choice of Rental/Strata

Rental Values Tenant Mix
Design management Location sale model
Levels

8 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 9
10 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
Asset quality-wise break up
Operational mall stock from 2008 to 2012
Superior
46%
Superior Average
Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18
More developers are maturing
• In the past, many developers entered
into the retail space and constructed
malls without precise understanding
of the dynamics related to the sector.
As a result, either the product was
poor which led to weak demand
for retailers or the location and
catchment area was not appropriate.
This constrained the scope for
success in these malls and became
a reason for the dichotomy that was
observed in the sector.
• Poor quality malls struggle to survive
whereas malls of superior quality
continue to attract demand from
prominent retailers in both domestic
and international category, and
successfully draw people in.
Future supply pipeline of 5 Years (2018-2022)
~ 90 Mall projects ~ 34 mn sq ft
Average Average
35% 28%
Poor Poor
19% 10%
Superior
62%
The years 2013-2017 witnessed extremely low new supply
Poor and hence are not adviseable for granular analysis.
• Developers who opted for
appropriate locations with good
visibility and strong catchment area,
tasted success.
• Developers who invested in mall
management and tenant mix which
are two essential factors, whereas the
others who failed to the get the right
formula performed poorly.
• Developers have now learnt from their
past mistakes and only experienced
players are continuing to build malls.
• As a result the percentage of future
supply which is expected to be of
superior quality is greater than in the
existing stock
India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 11
 Grade-wise
Mall Vacancy
The differing vacancies among different grades
reiterates the point that good quality space gains
traction while poor quality assets will struggle.
Gradual rationalisation of mall space in is helping
showcase actual vacancies in cities.

50%
46%
45% 44%
45%
39%
40%
35%
35%
31%
Vacancy in operational malls

29%
30% 27%

25%
22% 22%
19% 20%
20% 18%
17%
15% 14% 14% 14%
15% 14%
12%
11% 11%
10%
10% 9%
7% 8%
7% 6% 7% 7%
5% 4%

0%
NCR Delhi Mumbai Bangalore Chennai Pune Hyderabad Kolkata India

Superior Grade Average grade Poor Grade Overall Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

12 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game

 3 Factors Determining the
Success of a Mall
• Mall design makes a difference with
internal ease of access, appropriate
positioning of stores, and strategic
positioning of escalators and elevators
Product • Malls which follow the lease only model
tend to perform better as it becomes
easier for asset quality control and mall
management
• Catering to a varied tenant mix draws in
crowds to the mall with keeping visitors
interested
• Good mall management plays
an important role
• There is generally adequate parking in
most good malls
• Frequent events and promotional
activities improve the scope of walk-ins

CASE STUDY 1:
Viviana Mall, Thane
• In 2013, the entry of Viviana mall in Thane threatened the dominance of Korum mall which is almost half the size of
Viviana and only about a kilometer away.
• Korum responded well when its tenant mix improved by adding more F&B options. The mall brought-in Starbucks,
Burger King, and theme restaurants like Copper Pan, Woking Mama, and Panchvati Gaurav on the second floor.
• Proportion of F&B in the mall went up to 15-20% from 10-15%
• Thane market has now absorbed both the malls well. Both Korum and Viviana, are now doing good business.

CASE STUDY 2:

Select CITYWALK Mall, Delhi NCR

• Select City Walk mall commands one of the highest trading densities amongst all the malls in the country
• Over the years, the mall has essentially improved its tenant mix, as is noticed in the graphs below:

2011 2017
Select City Walk 2011 Select City Walk 2017
Occupiers Share Occupiers Share

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (JLL), 1Q18

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 13

14 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
 • Size of the residential population
must be looked at, targeting densely
populated areas before constructing a
mall.
Catchment • The income profile of the target
catchment is another important factor
to study before a mall comes up with a
launch strategy
• Accessibility is another key factor, as the
mall should be conveniently located
• All successful malls generally have
excellent frontage and visibility
• Developers will also have to identify
whether they would like the malls to
cater to people in commercial districts,
residential districts or a mixture of both

CASE STUDY:

Xperia, Palava
• Xperia mall came into the picture in mid-2016 with much grandeur from one of the leading Real estate developers. Despite
being located in Dombivali (east) - one of the far off suburbs of Mumbai, the mall continues to transcend success with a high
footfall, primarily guaranteed by the fact that the mall is a part of a township.
• The mall adopted several anchors to make its presence felt. Various prominent brands like Van Heusen, Peter England, PVR
Cinemas, Big Bazaar, Reliance Digital, Reliance Trends and Timezone were introduced. This generated high walk-ins - both
shoppers and window shoppers.
• Since many customers visit the mall primarily for food and entertainment, Xperia kept the proportion of F&B retail high. It has a
well maintained foodcourt with a bright decor and a good mix of F&B options.

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 15

 • Shoppers are increasingly chasing
experiences, not just merchandise. They
are also getting more tech savvy, time
constrained, aspirational and upwardly
mobile
• Retailers experimenting with newer
Customer formats are adopting technology to
engage shoppers
experience • Newer formats effectively use
technology for in-store experience,
faster check-out, better displays and
digital trial rooms
• Increasing adoption of minimalistic
store design, light-weight modular
fixtures, and focused lighting
16 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
• Space share of experiential retail -
restaurants, cafes, QSRs, theme-based
entertainment etc.has gone significantly
up over last 5 years in the top malls
• Experiential retail enhances repeat
visits, provides a solid moat against
e-commerce which can only offer
merchandise.
• Examples include Big Bazaar Gen Next,
Van Heusen Style Studio, Benetton
On-Canvas Family Store, Max Millennial
stores, Future Group Cover Story,
Mcdonalds McCafe
 g)n
tro
(S
(Strong)
Above average rentals.
Highest rentals
However, despite having
in the cities. These

Impact of a strong product, they

cannot command the
highest rentals due to
malls have the
advantage of good
quality as well as a

Product, a weaker catchment

compared to the best
strong catchment.

ce
ones.

n
Catchment and

rie
pe
Ex
Experience on Rentals are lower
as compared to
better quality assets
Marginally better
rentals than assets

Mall Rental at better locations. of similar quality but

weaker catchment.
Product

(Strong)

Catchment

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 17

 A Story of 3 Mumbai Malls Defying the Odds
CASE STUDY:

A prevailing perception is that malls cannot co-exist successfully. 3 malls in Mumbai – Infiniti, Oberoi and Inorbit - have realised the
potential of the catchment and have differentiated themselves, defy this perception to make an insightful point - A strong catchment
can sustain multiple malls.

Madhukar Digambar Desh

Road

Marg
Vaidya
Gen A K
Link

Goregaon Mulund Link Road Go ink Rd.

Infiniti Mall Oberoi Mall

regaon Mulund L

Aarey Flyover
2 Km

pande Marg
Road
Goregaon Link

ad
Aarey Ro
Marol-
Maros
i Road
Chinchowali Bandar Link Road

Mahatma Gandhi Road Sonawala Road

hway ig
Express H
Srirang Sabde Marg
Prabhodhan Marg

Western

2.9 Km Ha
3.5 Km
rib
ha
g

uR
ar

up
iM

aw re Flyover
ar

ate Mrinaltai Go
kh

M
Bu

arg
r
ai flyove
din
ud
Jia

Kamalakarpant L Walawalkar Mg

Mrinalt
na

d
ula

Swami Vivekanand Roa

Ma

Service Road
Lions Sol Marg
Ma
in
oaR
d

Inorbit Mall

• As observed in the map above, the 3 malls lie within a 2-3.5 km of each other.

• Despite being in close proximity to each other, all 3 have a high footfall for their unique positioning and
location advantage.

• The number of contributing reasons are similar and unique pertaining to each mall.

18 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game

 Accessibility/ Location
Infiniti mall is situated on
the Link road (Another
prominent road for the
suburbs of Mumbai). This
mall also has easy access
for people living in Malad,
Infiniti Kandivali and Goregaon.
Mall
Oberoi is situated on the
western highway, and
Oberoi hence provides easy access income group
even to shoppers from the
Mall eastern locations like Malad,
Goregaon and Kandivali
Inorbit mall is again situated
on Link road capturing
nearby crowd from Malad &
Goregaon as well as far off
areas like Kandivali East and
Lokhandwala Township
Inorbit
Mall
Catchment Profile Strategies Adopted Tenant Mix
Lower Middle • Known for leading CSR-based events that All 3 malls have a
Income to Upper attract people from both Middle and Upper unique tenant mix
Middle Income Middle Income groups. from all categories
group • The mall, in association with The Street including
Store (TSS), has put set up kiosks that high-end
enable mall patrons to deposit their unused brands, fashion,
clothes, accessories that in turn help in accessories etc.
distribution to the poor and needy. with a proper mix
• Infiniti mall is the only one in the area to of entertainment
have introduced an indoor roller coaster, and F&B which is
which brought in huge success in the area a critical category
of gaming and recreation. now-a-days for
the success of any
mall.
Middle Income Oberoi Mall has been instrumental in bringing
to Upper Middle in many International brands like Forever
21(no longer present), Forever New, Starbucks,
Aeropostale, United Colours of Benetton, Burger
King, and Crossword, especially to the western
suburbs
Lower Middle • This mall is amongst the early adopters
Income to Upper for omni channel supply (currently houses
Middle Income 10% online and 90% offline stores)
group • They have introduced India’s first Omni
channel Online Shopping program merging
the online shopping convenience with the
brick & mortar space where the offer is
made on website as well as an app based
feature.
• The mall has a good retail offering in terms
of price points and better products. It also
has more space allocation to F&B and
Entertainment.
India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 19
 Increase in Investor Interest in Retail RE
PE funds have been very active over the last 2 years in acquiring equity/debt in retail
properties across Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities

300

250
2018 has looked
200 promising so far in
terms of interest
150
among investors
100 in acquiring retail
properties
50

0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Jan - Mar Source: Industry source

Looking at the past few years

• There has been increased private
equity interest in key leasehold retail
assets across the country.
• A leasehold retail property usually has
a higher probability of success as the
developer is actively involved in the
key functions of mall management,
especially tenant management.
• Various new regulations like easing
foreign investment for single-brand
retailers, longer shopping hours and an
updated framework for establishing real
estate investment trusts (REITs) have
attracted the attention of various private
equity funds

20 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game

A close look on recent PE deals (2015-1Q 2018)
Year Deals

2015 • Blackstone acquires two retail assets of Alpha G:Corp in Amritsar and Ahmedabad
respectively for around INR 800 cr.

• Blackstone had bought a 1 mn sq ft retail mall (adjacent to the office tower in Seawoods),
from L&T Realty for over INR 1,400 cr.

2016 •
•
Blackstone bought stake in Pune- Westend mall, Aundh for INR 600 cr.
Singapore government-owned GIC bought 50 per cent stake in Viviana Mall in Thane, on
the outskirts of Mumbai, for over INR 1,000 cr.

• Virtuous Retail (Xander Group and Dutch pension fund APG retail platform), bought North
Country Mall - a retail property in Mohali, Punjab for INR 700 cr. ($109 million) from
SUN-Apollo –JJ Gumberg.

2017 • Blackstone arm bought Chandigarh’s Elante Mall (along with the office block) for an
estimated INR 2,200 cr.
• GIC bought 33% stake in DLF commercial portfolio arm for INR 8,900 cr., which included
DLF Emporio and Promenade malls in Delhi NCR.

• Phoenix, CPPIB bought L&T land for INR 650 cr. in north Bengaluru in 2018.
2018 • Blackstone bought 85% stake in Nitesh’s Pune mall for INR 300 cr.

Source: Industry sources

India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 21

 Way forward
• Superior grade malls across the
country will continue to enjoy near
100% trading occupancy, excellent
consumption and steady rental growth.
• We will continue to see stock
consolidation. Some of the weak
properties will divert to non-retail
uses like small offices, hospitals,
educational, healthcare and survive.
Out of the upcoming supply, the
malls under the superior category
ought to do well as they have the right
fundamentals. The rest might struggle.
• The overwhelming majority of failed
malls fail due to poor mall design,
layout, circulation, tenant mix, and
E- Commerce
Firms with
Physical
Stores
Pepperfry
Lenskart
Flipkart
Nykaa
Vyolla
Bombay Shirt Company
22 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game
tend to be poorly managed strata-sold
properties.
• Online vs Physical stores debate is
a thing of the past. Consensus has
emerged around omni channel.
E-commerce companies are rolling
out physical stores and traditional
brick-mortar retailers are making
large investments in web, mobile and
supply-chain integration. Below is a
quick analysis of some of the prevailing
brands that have adopted omni
channel sales channels.
• The entry of a larger mall in a sub-
market should not adversely impact
the entrenched malls beyond a
OMNI
channel
Retail
few months as long as the older
mall takes steps like refurbishment,
improvement in tenant mix, better
access, greater engagement with the
local community.
• Shoppers are increasingly chasing
recreational experiences rather than
shopping alone. Malls are responding
with greater space share allocation to
restaurants, cafes, delis, theme based
entertainment spaces, spas, cinema.
• Traditional retailers too are
responding to the change in customer
preferences with new formats that
make their stores more experiential in
contrast to the earlier focus on sale of
merchandise.
Traditional
Retailers now
E-Commerce
enabled
Croma – Tatacliq.com
ShoppersStop.com
H&M.com
Forever21.com
Aditya Birla – Abof.com,
Trendin.com
Bigbazaardirect.com
Godrej Nature’s basket
Reliance-Ajio.com,
realiantrends.in
• India could do with additional
presence of global retailers.
Strong sales performance of many
recent entrants to the market
and penetration of select retailer
categories beyond 7 metros presents a
huge untapped opportunity.
• Investments in retail RE over last
2 years dwarf the cumulative
investments made over last 5-7 years.
The future looks promising.
• Landlords in India are actively
adjusting tenant mixes and placing
greater emphasis on the experience of
shopping.
• Fast fashion, F&B and entertainment • Plans are already underway by many
operators again dominate leasing with global, designer private labels to enter
superior quality malls being the main the Indian apparel and accessories
target for space. market, particularly in the luxury
•  F&B operators remain the most active bridge-to-luxury segments.
retailers category in India’s major high
streets, followed by apparel.
• International brands have been
entering the country and expanding
in the past couple of years, and more
are expected to look for quality space
across the country.
• 100% FDI in single-brand retail
may bring in more global retailers,
especially in the fast fashion category.
India Retail: Stepping Up the Game 23
 Contacts
For business enquiries, contact Special Acknowledgement

Pankaj Renjhen Ashutosh Limaye

Managing Director, Retail Head, Research and REIS
+91 98992 18885 +91 98211 07054
pankaj.renjhen@ap.jll.com ashutosh.limaye@ap.jll.com

Authors

Subash Bhola Sumedh Gadgil Titikshya Sahoo

Local Director, Research Analyst, Research Analyst, Research
+91 97693 78766 +91 98927 47489 +91 75063 77403
subash.bhola@ap.jll.com sumedh.gadgil@ap.jll.com titikshya.sahoo@ap.jll.com

About JLL
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behalf of clients, managed 4.4 billion square feet, or 409 million square meters, and completed sales acquisitions and finance transactions of approximately
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24 India Retail: Stepping Up the Game