Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
(Planetary)
Limits
Dr Julia Steinberger
J.K.Steinberger@Leeds.ac.uk
Illustrations by Jacob S-P
1
We’ve been observing outer space …
now it’s the aliens’ turn to observe us!
2
A time machine for Jodrell Bank
3
What does a
“good life”
mean for
Earthlings?
Let’s ask an
academic …
4
Ask an academic!
What determines well-being?
Why yes!
2’400 years ago, in
Ancient Greece …
350 BC
6
Well-Being
meAns Being ABle
to live A life As
fullY As possiBle
And flourish
Within one’s
soCietY.
Well-Being meAns
AChieving the
Aristotle, 350BC
most positive And
leAst negAtive
feelings possiBle.
epiCurus, 300BC 7
the tWo CAmps
persist to this
dAY!
teAm teAm
epiCurus Aristotle
hAppiness flourishing
individuAl soCiAl
Physical
Mental Autonomy
Health
Health
Safe
Environ- Education
ment Friends &
Healthcare Family
If even one of
them fails, I’m
in trouble. 10
What do you need to
keep your Good Life
legs going?
Resources from
the environment:
energy.
11
Relationship between well-being
and energy use
EU
USA
Key Fact 1:
Emerging
economies Sufficiency
Developing countries
Energy use
Oil per person
Oil
12
ENERGY seems
quite important.
How much do you
use? Where does
it come from?
Key Fact 2:
Since 1980,
Global Energy Use (ExaJoules)
Global Energy Assessment
80% of global
energy comes
from fossil fuels.
Oil
15
Range in temperature:
20’000
The Holocene
BC
Human Civilisation:
A brief Duration in time
history of
climate and
human
civilisation
16
The Anthropocene
Presently …
heading
into the
unknown…
17
… and a lot
more
dangerous.
The Anthropocene
Presently …
heading
into the
unknown…
18
Uh-oh. That’s quite
scary. Can you see
any warming
happening right
now?
Going back to
the present …
2018
19
July 2018: All time heat records
set all over the world.
Washington Post 20
Climate change is one of several
“Planetary Boundaries”
“Transgressing one or
more of the planetary
boundaries could lead
to catastrophic change
at the continental to
global scale.”
Source: Steffen et al. 2015, Science
347 (6223), 1259855.
21
Does well-being
connect to
planetary limits?
Yes, let me
show you…
22
23
Country level results
UK Sri Lanka
O'Neill, D. et Al (2018).
Nature Sustainability.
http://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk 24
Where We
Need to Be Key Fact 3:
No country is both
environmentally
and socially
sustainable – not
even close.
O'Neill, D. et Al (2018).
Nature Sustainability.
25
How do we get
Earthlings to
achieve well-being
without damaging
the environment?
It’s not going
to be easy, but I
have a few
ideas…
26
The energy sufficient for
well-being goes down over time
Key Fact 4:
HUGE efficiency
Energy per person (GigaJoules)
in achieving
well-being.
Key Fact 5:
Economic growth,
not well-being, is
Steinberger et al (2018) in preparation
Income has
Of which, $7’900
increased by can attributed to
Meaning 9.6 years can’t $8,900 per person growth in energy
be linked to energy. internationally. use. 28
Economies trapped in high energy use?
The case of car dependency
1. Car
industry
Key Fact 6:
Living well
5. Car 2. Roads &
within limits culture parking
means facing
big & powerful Can
industries, and Earthlings
ways of life. 4. Neglect do it? Yes
3. Land use
public
transport
for cars you can!
Mattioli et al (2018) in
29
preparation
30
Ideas Evidence Action
• Doughnut Economics IPCC reports POLITICAL
K. Raworth Grist.org • Speak up! Insist.
• Human Earth Vox.com • Join 350.org, CAN, PlanB
Maslin & Lewis Kate Marvel
COMMUNITY & WORK
• Prosperity without Gavin Schmidt
• Participate
Growth T. Jackson Katharine Hayhoe
• Steer decisions & policies
• This Changes Everything Eric Holthaus
David Roberts (divestment, travel,
N. Klein purchasing, …)
• Heat, Greed & Human
Need I. Gough PERSONAL & FAMILY
• Eat plant-based food;
• Degrowth G. Kallis
• Stop driving & flying;
• Enough is Enough Dietz Future • Heat less, consume less;
& O’Neill • Insulation, induction hob;
• Renewable energy. 31
Extra Slides
32
Boundaries and thresholds
2018
Biophysical Indicators and their Boundaries
Biophysical Indicator Planetary Boundary Per Capita Boundary
CO2 Emissions 2 °C warming 1.61 t CO2 y-1
Social Indicators and their Thresholds Phosphorus 6.2 Tg P y-1 0.89 kg P y-1
Social Indicator Threshold Nitrogen 62 Tg N y-1 8.9 kg N y-1
Life Satisfaction 6.5 on 0–10 Cantril ladder scale Blue Water 4000 km3 y-1 574 m3 y-1
Healthy Life Expectancy 65 years eHANPP 18.2 Gt C y-1 2.62 t C y-1
Nutrition 2700 kcal per capita Ecological Footprint 1.72 gha y-1
Sanitation 95% of people have access to improved sanitation facilities Material Footprint 7.2 t y-1
Income 95% of people earn above $1.90 a day
Access to Energy 95% of people have electricity access
Education 95% enrolment in secondary school
Social Support 90% of people have friends or family they can depend on
Democracy 0.80 (approximate US/UK value)
Equality 70 on 0–100 scale (GINI index of 0.30)
Employment 94% employed (6% unemployment)
http://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk 33
34
UK
Costa Rica
China
USA
Russia
Nigeria
35
Heating and
Moving
cooling
people and
space and
things
food
Light
Running
Communication &
machines,
entertainment
making things 36
Energy fuels economic growth
37
Do we really want growth?
• Economic growth counts
goods and bads equally;
• Wealth accumulation • Energy can also be
becomes more unequal used for good and bad;
with growth; • Wealthiest people overuse
• Dependence on growth energy while poor people
makes economies unstable are deprived;
(risk, crises); • Dependence on large
• Not clear the good things energy use makes societies
we want (health, vulnerable (crises);
employment, education …) • Not clear the good things
require growth. we want (health,
employment, education …)
require energy.
38
39
NASA causes of climate change animation
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a030000/a030600/a030615/9_human_al
l_curves_1080p.mp4
40
NASA: Gavin Schmidt & Kate Marvel, Amy Moran
2016
I like these
I’m in goals!
them
too!
41