Analogical Reasoning

Analogy - A parallel drawn between two (or more) entities by indicating one or more
respects in which they are similar.

Analogical argument - A kind of inductive argument in which, from the fact that two
entities are alike in some respect(s), it is concluded that they are also alike in some
other respect(s).

6 Criteria of Appraising Analogical Arguments

1. Number of entities
2. Variety of the instances in the premises
3. Number of similar respects
4. Relevance
5. Disanalogies
6. Claim that the conclusion makes

Refutation by Logical Analogy - to show that a given argument (whether inductive or

deductive) is mistaken, one effective method is to present another argument, which is
plainly mistaken, and whose form is the same as that of the argument under attack.

Causal Reasoning
Causal reasoning - Inductive reasoning in which some effect is inferred from what is
assumed to be its cause, or some cause is inferred from what is assumed to be its
effect.

Necessary Condition for the occurrence of a specified event is a circumstance in

whose absence the event cannot occur.

Sufficient Condition for the occurrence of an event is a circumstance in whose

presence the event must occur.

Remote Cause in any chain of causes and effects, an event distant from the effect for
which explanation is sought. Contrasted with “proximate” cause.

Proximate cause in any chain of causes and effects, the event nearest to the event
whose explanation is sought. Contrasted with “remote” causes, which are more distant
in the causal chain.

Necessary and Sufficient Condition - The conjunction of necessary conditions for the
occurrence of a given event, this conjunction being all that is needed to ensure the
occurrence of the event. It is the sense in which the word cause is used when
inferences are drawn both from cause to effect and from effect to cause.
Causal Laws - Descriptive laws asserting a necessary connection between events of
two kinds, of which one is the cause and the other the effect.

Inductive Generalization - The process of arriving at universal propositions from

particular facts of experience, relying upon the principle of induction.

Induction by Simple Enumeration - A type of inductive generalization in which the

premises are instances where phenomena of two kinds repeatedly accompany one
another in certain circumstances, from which it is concluded that phenomena of those
two kinds always accompany one another in such circumstances.

Mill's Methods The five patterns of inductive inference, analyzed and formulated by
John Stuart Mill, with which hypotheses are confirmed or disconfirmed.

Method of Agreement A pattern of inductive inference in which it is concluded that, if

two or more instances of a given phenomenon have only one circumstance in common,
that one common circumstance is the cause (or effect) of the phenomenon.

Method of Difference A pattern of inductive inference in which, when cases in which a

given phenomenon occurs differ in only one circumstance from cases in which the
phenomenon does not occur, that circumstance is inferred to be causally connected to
the phenomenon.

Joint method of Agreement and Difference – A pattern of inductive inference in

which the method of agreement
and the method of difference are used in combination to give the conclusion a higher
degree of probability.

Method of Residues – A pattern of inductive inference in which, when some portions of

a given phenomenon are known to be the effects of certain identified antecedents, we
conclude that the remaining portion of the phenomenon is the effect of the remaining
antecedents.

Method of Concomitant Variation – A pattern of inductive inference in which it is

concluded that, when one phenomenon varies consistently with some other
phenomenon in some manner, there is some causal relation between the two
phenomena.

Scientific Explanation – A theoretical account of some fact or event, predicated upon

empirical evidence and subject to revision in the light of new information.

Unscientific Explanation – An explanation that is asserted dogmatically and regarded

as unquestionable.

Scientific Method
 1. Identifying the Problem
2. Devising Preliminary Hypotheses
3. Collecting Additional Facts
4. Formulating the Explanatory Hypotheses
5. Deducing Further Consequences
6. Testing the Consequences
7. Applying the Theory

Criteria used in judging the merit of competing hypotheses

1. Compatibility with previously well-established hypotheses

2. Predictive power
3. Simplicity

Classification – The organization and division of large collections of things into an

ordered system of groups and subgroups, often used in the construction of scientific
hypotheses.

Numerical Coefficient of Probability – A number that describes the likelihood, or

probability, of the occurrence of an event. Its possible values range from 0
(impossibility) to 1 (certainty).

A Priori theory of Probability – A theory in which the probability ascribed to a simple

event is a fraction between 0 and 1, of which the denominator is the number of
equipossible outcomes, and the numerator is the number of outcomes in which the
event in question occurs. Thus on the a priori theory, the probability of drawing a spade
at
random from a deck of playing cards is 13/52.

Relative Frequency Theory of Probability – The view of probability in which the

probability of a simple event is
determined as a fraction whose denominator is the total number of members of a class,
and whose numerator is the number of members of that class that are found to exhibit a
particular attribute that is equivalent to the event in question.

Calculus of Probability – A branch of mathematics that can be used to compute the

probabilities of complex events from the probabilities of their component events.

Product Theorem – In the calculus of probability, a theorem asserting that the

probability of the joint occurrence of multiple independent events is equal to the product
of their separate probabilities.

Independent Events – In probability theory, events so related that the occurrence or

nonoccurrence of one has no effect upon the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the
other.
Addition Theorem – In the calculus of probability, a theorem used to determine the
probability of a complex event consisting of one or more alternative occurrences of
simple events whose probabilities are known. The theorem applies only to mutually
exclusive alternatives.

Mutually Exclusive Events – Events of such a nature that, if one occurs, the other(s)
cannot occur at the same time. Thus, in a coin flip, the outcomes "heads" and "tails" are
mutually exclusive events.

Expectation Value – In probability theory, the value of a wager or an investment;

determined by multiplying each of
the mutually exclusive possible returns from that wager by the probability of the return,
and summing those products.