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INTRODUCTION
India is a very big country, with more than a billion population inhabiting
an area of over three million square kilometres ----- 324 persons per square
kilometre, compared with 40 for all developing countries and only 27 for Sub-
Saharan Africa. “The sheer size of India has conditioned the relationship
between aid resources and the Indian economy as a whole. In absolute terms,
India has always been one of the three largest recipients of net economic aid”
(Lipton and Toye, 1990: p.3). The coming in of foreign aid, in India, has
coincided with the starting of economic planning, which has been “most
fortunate from the point of view of evolving some kind of rationality and order
in formulating requests for foreign aid” (Rao and Narain, 1963: p.16). During
the successive five year plans, emphasis of public sector investment on basic
and heavy industries such as: iron and steel, machine building, fuel and
power, chemicals etc.; expansion of transport and communication
infrastructure; urban development ; and the like, along with limited savings
and other varied but complex development requirements compelled India to
seek larger quantum of foreign aid in the form of both loans as well as outright
grants.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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PSE Economic Analyst (2006), Vol.26, pp.59-86 Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University,
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things, on its own 'real worth' which in turn is determined by five factors:
outright grant to loan ratio; the maturity or repayment period of the loan
component; the duration of grace period, i.e., the initial period during which no
repayment of principal is required; the rate of interest to be charged; and the
extent to which it is tied. All these factors determine 'grant element' inherent in
the foreign loans which can be worked out by using a suitable discount rate,
i.e., a rate which reflect the cost of raising the same loan on almost similar
terms and conditions from a relevant alternative source. Basically, grant
element arises because of the discrepancy between the rate of interest at
which the loan component is serviced and rate of interest (discount rate) at
which it could have been obtained from an alternative source under the similar
terms and conditions.
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PSE Economic Analyst (2006), Vol.26, pp.59-86 Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University,
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Linear Trend: Simple tabular analysis along with straight line trend of the
type Y=+t+ have been fitted to analyze the bilateral as well as multilateral
authorized and utilized foreign aid in India for the period 1966-67 to 2003-04,
which has been divided into two sub-periods viz: (a) pre-eighty period (1966-
67 to 1979-80), and (b) post-eighty period (1980-81 to 2003-04) to delineate
the impact of liberalization.
i e qG e qT
s 1 1
q q(T G)
q = Rate of discount
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PSE Economic Analyst (2006), Vol.26, pp.59-86 Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University,
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(Ohlin, 1966: p.103; for more details see: pp.102-04 and 111-12). Similar
results are provided by a slightly modified formula presented by the WB
economists (Chang et al, 1999: p. 15) mentioned below:
1 1
i (1 q) G
(1 q) T
s 1 1
q q(T G)
Assumption (iii): The rate of interest to be charged on the loan remains fixed
at 'i' throughout the life span of the loan.**
Assumption (v): The loan involves no charges other than interest and
amortization, i.e., commitment fees and other charges are ignored in the
estimation.
** In case of variable interest rates, the rate applicable at the time of loan commitment is used for grant element
estimation.
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PSE Economic Analyst (2006), Vol.26, pp.59-86 Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University,
Amritsar
element will be zero, regardless of the moratorium and maturity period (this
would not be the case if the loan involves any service charges in addition to
the interest charges). Second, the lower the interest rate for a given discount
rate, larger will be the grant element and vice versa. Third, for a given
configuration of interest and discount rates, the absolute value of the grant
element rises with rise in the grace and maturity periods, and reaches the
i
maximum (equal to 1 ) when both grace and maturity periods approach
q
infinity, i.e., in the case of a consol.
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PSE Economic Analyst (2006), Vol.26, pp.59-86 Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University,
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log E n log E1
Average Annual Depreciation Rate of Rupee = 1 exp
(n 1)
In the present paper, an attempt has also been made to analyze the
impact of exchange rate variations on the estimation of grant element, i.e.,
grant element has been estimated both with and without incorporating
average depreciation of Rupee against the foreign currencies in which loans
have been sanctioned/ utilized. Depreciation of Rupee in relation to foreign
currencies plays a crucial role in determining grant element inherent in foreign
loans. Average rates of depreciation of Rupee in relation to foreign currencies
during the fore-mentioned time period (given in Appendix 2) indicate the
average increase in the interest payments on these foreign loans, during the
said-period, sanctioned in foreign terms and conditions owing to the
depreciation of local Rupee vis-a-vis foreign currencies. Hence, average rate
of depreciation is added to the rate of interest to estimate the implicit grant
element in local Rupee terms. The grant element may become negative if the
sum of interest rate and average rate of depreciation along with their product
term exceeds the discount rate.
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PSE Economic Analyst (2006), Vol.26, pp.59-86 Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University,
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The paper has been organized into three sections. Section-I explains
the comparative trend in authorized as well as utilized aggregate bilateral and
multilateral aid in India, while empirical results of the estimates of grant
element using domestic market sensitive discount rates, both with and without
exchange rate variations, have been presented in Section – II. The
implications and main findings of the study are summed up in the last section,
Section-III.
Table – 1
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Table – 2
Division of Utilized Aid into Bilateral and Multilateral Assistance
(Rs. Crore)
Period/Year Bilateral Aid Multilateral Aid Total Utilized
Aid
N.B. (i) Figures in parentheses represent percentage share in total utilized aid.
(ii) ** Significant at 0.01 level
* Significant at 0.05 level, and
NS
indicates non-significant
a
Sources: (i) Govt. of India , Economic Survey 2004-05, p. S-101 and 102 and other issues.
(ii) Linear slope (T-values) have been computed.
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1. Grant Element in the World Bank Loans: The term 'the WB' and
'The Bank' refer to the IBRD and IDA only. These have been the two
'windows' through which the WB makes loans to the developing countries.
Legally these are two separate organizations, though in practice, both share a
common staff, management structure, policies and rules.
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Table 3
IBRD Loans to India (Million US$)
Period Public Private Total
Sector Sector
First Five Year Plan (1951-56) 67.23 52.91 120.14
Second Five Year Plan (1956-61) 335.71 211.26 546.97
Third Five Year Plan (1961-66) 142.76 130.62 273.38
Yearly Plans (1966-69) ___ 25.64 25.64
Fourth Five Year Plan (1969-74) 38.95 158.08 197.03
Fifth Five Year Plan (1974-78) 515.84 408.82 924.66
Yearly Plans (1978-80) 162.77 ___ 162.77
Sixth Five Year Plan (1980-85) 3431.47 377.97 3809.44
Seventh Five Year Plan (1985-90) 5758.41 773.99 6532.40
Yearly Plan (1990-91) 675.84 243.44 919.28
Yearly Plan (1991-92) 733.97 644.99 1378.96
Eighth Five Year Plan (1992-97) 1417.47 877.71 2295.18
Ninth Five Year Plan (1997-02) 4037.01 775.73 4812.74
Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-04) 1904.00 ___ 1904.00
Grand Total 19221.43 4681.16 23902.59
(80.42%) (19.58%) (100%)
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During the period 1980-81 to 2003-04, IBRD has provided 163 semi-
concessional loans to India, which have been repayable over 20 years period
(maturity) inclusive of a five year grace period at interest rates slightly higher
than those 'the Bank' paid to borrow funds. The rate of interest on IBRD loans
ranged between 8.25 to 11.6 percent per annum during the period 1980-85;
7.59 to 10.8 percent during the period 1985-90; 7.71 to 7.75 percent during
1990-95; 6.03 to 7.40 percent during the period 1995-2000; and 1.71 to 4.00
percent per annum during 2000-04. Recently (March 2004), the rate of
interest on IBRD loans was 1.59 percent per annum. India borrowed under
single currency loans (in US$) on variable spread basis only (ibid., p.75).
These interest rates have been variable after every six months, since 1994.
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Table 4
Grant Element in IBRD Loans
Without Loan
With Depreciation
No. of Depreciation of Rs. Amount
Year of Rs. Against US$
Loans Against US$
Percent Rs. Crore Percent Rs. Crore Rs. Crore
1980-81 4 5.06 21.53 -75.52 -321.32 425.48
1981-82 4 -7.49 -48.35 -85.66 -553.08 645.69
1982-83 6 -4.10 -40.57 -88.99 -879.67 988.50
1983-84 5 5.15 9.26 -71.26 -128.11 179.78
1984-85 8 10.74 176.01 -67.08 -1099.35 1638.87
1985-86 9 15.67 231.26 -56.94 -840.33 1475.81
1986-87 7 16.77 283.25 -55.07 -930.16 1689.05
1987-88 11 29.14 601.34 -42.67 -880.55 2063.63
1988-89 9 30.88 558.57 -40.86 -739.10 1808.85
1989-90 16 31.07 617.58 -40.00 -795.08 1987.70
1990-91 14 32.15 471.63 -37.44 -549.24 1466.98
1991-92 9 44.30* 1019.35 -16.09* -370.23 2301.02
1992-93 4 43.48 725.75 -18.28 -305.12 1669.15
1993-94 5 34.79 709.05 12.34 251.50 2038.09
1994-95 8 34.37 531.87 11.82 182.91 1547.50
1995-96 4 43.74 337.49 22.54 173.92 771.59
1996-97 7 44.43 586.20 23.42 309.00 1319.39
1997-98 5 40.32 1202.63 17.29 515.71 2982.71
1998-99 4 39.87 1161.13 16.20 471.79 2912.30
1999-00 5 32.43 277.58 8.96 76.69 855.95
2000-01 7 47.70 3208.19 23.08 1552.30 6725.76
2001-02 6 53.04 4262.07 26.45 2125.41 8035.58
2002-03 3 60.70 3542.35 15.83 923.81 5835.83
2003-04 3 33.23 1065.56 0.75 24.05 3206.61
Overall Average 39.42 21510.73 -3.27 -1784.25 54571.82
For 163 Loans
N.B. (i) *Indicate one loan which has been excluded whose grant element is undefined.
(ii) Weighted average of grant element has been computed in years in which terms
and conditions were different.
(iii) Grant element of loans since 1993-94 has been based on general terms and
conditions.
Source (Basic Data): Govt of India, External Assistance, (2003-04 and other issues);
Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs; Aid, Accounts and Audit Division.
also qualify. IDA, also known as 'soft lending agency' of 'the Bank', lends
without charging interest (interest free loans) using funds provided entirely by
the contributions by the member countries, with a grace period of 10 years
and principal repayments stretching thereafter over 20-30 years depending
upon the situation. However, the borrower has to pay three-fourth of one-
percent as service charge to the IDA, which the WB uses to cover its
administrative charges. There is no grace period for the service charge
obligations like interest payments.
IDA assistance to India began in June, 1961 and since then, has been
an important component of her external assistance program. It has financed
269 development projects and the consolidated loan assistance amounted to
US$ 26047.35 million up to the end-March 2004 (Govt. of Indiab, 2004: pp.75-
77). This includes assistance in the form of non-project credits for industrial
imports and credits for various sectors like irrigation, agriculture, health and
family welfare, and rural development, etc.
IDA credits to India up to end-June 1987 were repayable in 50 years
(maturity) inclusive of a grace period of 10 years and those approved from
July 1, 1987 onwards were repayable in 35 years (maturity) including a
moratorium of 10 years. Though IDA credits carried commitment charges of
0.5 percent per annum on the un-disbursed balance, yet these have been
waived off by 'the Bank' from 1989-90 onwards (ibid., p.75). The estimated
grant element in the 201 IDA loans committed/ utilized during 1980-81 to
2003-04, both with and without average depreciation rate of Rupee in relation
to SDRs and US$, are outlined in Table 5. The table shows that grant element
inherent in IDA loans remained positive throughout the period under
consideration, if depreciation of Rupee vis-a-vis SDRs and US$ is ignored,
and ranged between the lowest level of 65.86 percent in 2003-04 and the
highest level of 91.03 percent in 1991-92. The overall average grant element
during the period 1980-2004 has been worked out as 84.35 percent.
However, if average rate of depreciation of Rupee is added to the interest rate
(service charges) on IDA loans, the grant element becomes negative during
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Table 5
Grant Element in IDA Loans
Source (Basic Data): Govt of India, External Assistance, (2003-04 and other issues);
Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs; Aid, Accounts and Audit Division.
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PSE Economic Analyst (2006), Vol.26, pp.59-86 Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University,
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the period 1980-81 to 1984-85 but was positive for the remaining years up to
2003-04. This grant element ranged between the lowest level of (-)24.82
percent in 1980-81 to the highest proportion of 64.42 percent in 1996-97.
Even the overall average grant element during the period 1980-2004 worked
out to 37.13 percent. This indicates that IDA loans to India proved quite
concessional during the above-mentioned period. Besides these loans, IDA
has also given assistance in the form of outright grants amounting to Swiss
Francs 6 million; Japanese Yen 144.477 million; Dutch Guilder 0.8 million;
US$ 53.428 million; and SDRs 18.5 million to India up to end-March 2004, out
of which Swiss Francs 3.76 million (62.6 percent); Japanese Yen 133.167
million (92.2 percent); Dutch Guilder 0.08 million (100 percent); US$ 32.510
million (60.8 percent); and SDRs 2.771 (15 percent) have been utilized during
the same period (ibid., pp. 230-31).
Although eligible to borrow under the criteria laid down by the ADB,
India voluntarily refrained from borrowing initially. However, in order to broad
base country's resources, India decided to borrow from ADB in 1986. The first
ever ADB loan to India was sanctioned on May 2, 1986 to the ICICI
amounting to US$ 98.788 million. Since then, ADB has approved 78 loans (for
the public sector projects) amounting to US$12.911 billion, of which four were
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Table 6
N.B. (i) * two loans whose grant element is undefined are not included.
(ii) Weighted average of grant element has been calculated where terms and
conditions of loans were different in a year.
(iii) Average of terms and conditions is used where these have been given in the form
of range.
Source (Basic Data): Govt of India, External Assistance, (2003-04 and other issues);
Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs; Aid, Accounts and Audit Division.
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element was negative. Thus IFAD loans, like IDA loans proved quite
concessional to India despite depreciation of Rupee in relation to SDRs and
US$ during the above-mentioned period.
Table 7
Grant Element in IFAD Loans
The Fund loans during the above mentioned period have been
repayable over a period ranging between 14 to 22 years (maturity) including a
grace period ranging between four to five years carrying interest rate charges
between 0.75 percent to 4 percent per annum. So far, the Fund has extended
14 loans to India amounting US$ 218.80 million till the end-March 2003, out of
which US$ 206.592 million have been utilized up to the end-March 2004. The
first ever loan to India was for BOP support in 1977 amounting to US$ 21.80
million and the subsequent 13 loans for various development projects. Last
loan of US$ 10 million was sanctioned for Shimla sewerage project on August
21, 1997 (Govt. of Indiab, 2004: pp. 53 and 161).
The worked out grant element in 11 OPEC Fund loans utilized by India
during the above-mentioned period, both without and with average depreciation
rate of Rupee in relation to US$, are presented in Table 8. The table shows that
these grant elements have been positive in all the years, if depreciation of
Rupee is ignored. The overall average grant element worked out to be 61.64
percent, i.e., the loans seems to be highly concessional. However, if average
depreciation of Rupee is included in the interest rate charged on the utilized
loans, the overall average grant element becomes negative (-0.28 percent). It
has also been negative for most of the years, and ranged between the lowest
level of (–)25.21 percent in 1983-84 and the maximum of 40.94 percent in 1997-
98. Thus, on the whole, the 11 loans extended by OPEC Fund also proved non-
concessional to India when the exchange rate depreciation of Rupee is
incorporated.
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Table 8
Grant Element in OPEC Fund Loans
Without Depreciation With Depreciation Loan
No. of of Rs. Against US$ of Rs. Against US$ Amount
Year
Loans
Percent Rs. Crore Percent Rs. Crore Rs. Crore
1980-81 2 59.51 23.68 -18.89 -7.52 39.80
1982-83 1 65.06 18.38 -14.47 -4.09 28.25
1983-84 1 39.85 9.33 -25.21 -5.90 23.42
1987-88 2 65.55 11.41 -8.13 -1.41 17.41
1988-89 1 67.07 9.76 -0.97 -0.14 14.56
1990-91 1 68.53 7.22 2.02 0.21 10.54
1991-92 2 70.98 17.54 12.63 3.12 24.71
1997-98 1 62.96 23.36 40.94 15.19 37.10
Overall Average 61.64 120.68 -0.28 -0.54 195.79
For 11 Loans
Source (Basic Data): Govt of India, External Assistance, (2003-04 and other issues);
Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs; Aid, Accounts and Audit Division.
Grant element implicit in single Trust Fund loan, both without and with
exchange rate depreciation of Rupee in relation to SDRs, is given in Table 9
which shows that this single loan proved concessional (grant element 48.79
percent) if depreciation of Rupee vis-a-vis SDRs is ignored, and proved non-
concessional (grant element –13.75 percent) otherwise.
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Table 9
Grant Element in IMF Trust Fund Loan
Source (Basic Data): Govt of India, External Assistance, (2003-04 and other issues);
Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs; Aid, Accounts and Audit Division.
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IFAD loans proved most concessional with grant element 41.27 percent
followed by IDA with 37.13 percent with incorporating exchange rate
depreciation of rupee during the fore said period, while the single loan
authorized by IMF Trust Fund proved costliest (grant element -13.75) followed
by IBRD (-3.27 percent ), ADB (-0.81 percent) and OPEC Fund (-0.28). Thus,
it can be implied that India should borrow only from those multilateral
agencies which provide assistance on soft terms and conditions like IFAD and
IDA, which yielded grant element despite depreciation of Rupee in relation to
foreign currencies. Loans on hard terms and conditions should be avoided to
lighten the debt burden of the country.
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REFERENCES
Lipton, Michael and John Toye (1990), Does Aid Work in India?: A Country
Study of the Impact of Official Development Assistance, London
and New York: Routledge.
Narain, Veena (1988), US Financial Aid and India’s Economic Growth, New
Delhi : Commonwealth Publishers.
Rao, V.K.R.V. and Dharm Narain (1963), Foreign Aid and India's Economic
Development, Bombay: Asia Publishing House.
Sharma, R.K. (1977), Foreign Aid to India: An Economic Study, New Delhi:
Marwah Publications.
White, John (1974), The Politics of Foreign Aid, London: The Bodley Head.
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Appendix 1
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Appendix 2
Average Exchange Rates (Rs. Per unit of Foreign Currency: 1980-81 to 2003-04)
Creditor Currency 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average
Unit -81 -82 -83 -84 -85 -86 -87 -88 -89 -90 -91 -92 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 -99 -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 Depreciation
of Rupee
(percent)
1980- 1993-
81 to 94 to
1992- 2003-
93 04
Austria Aus Sch. 0.60 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.65 0.90 1.06 1.15 1.31 1.61 2.09 2.78 2.65 2.84 3.31 3.25 2.97 3.33 3.03 3.00 3.11 3.49 3.92 13.63 3.99
Belgium Bel. Franc 0.26 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.23 0.31 0.36 0.39 0.43 0.55 0.72 0.95 0.89 0.97 1.13 1.11 1.01 1.14 1.03 1.02 1.06 1.19 1.34 11.40 4.18
Canada Can. $ 6.78 7.48 7.86 8.40 9.07 8.96 9.37 9.97 12.04 14.08 15.39 21.46 24.89 23.88 22.64 24.49 26.03 26.45 28.07 29.95 30.31 30.60 31.20 33.94 11.45 3.58
Denmark Dan. Kron 1.36 1.22 1.15 1.10 1.11 1.26 1.69 1.95 2.11 2.34 2.97 3.81 5.07 4.75 5.08 6.00 5.96 5.49 6.17 5.61 5.53 5.74 6.45 7.25 11.59 4.32
France F. Franc 1.82 1.58 1.44 1.31 1.31 1.50 1.94 2.22 2.38 2.67 3.37 4.34 5.77 5.49 5.82 6.73 6.76 6.22 6.99 6.36 6.30 6.52 NA NA 10.09 --
Germany Deutsche 4.22 3.89 3.99 3.97 4.01 4.59 6.34 7.44 8.13 9.07 11.37 14.75 19.55 18.67 20.03 23.32 22.91 20.92 24.21 21.35 21.11 NA NA NA 13.63 --
Mark
Japan Yen 0.097 0.040 0.037 0.044 0.049 0.057 0.081 0.094 0.114 0.117 0.127 0.186 0.245 0.290 0.315 0.347 0.316 0.303 0.358 0.410 0.414 0.366 0.397 0.406 8.03 3.42
Kuwait Ku. Dinar 32.47 34.73 35.67 36.97 41.59 42.05 44.59 47.05 51.63 56.70 59.94 78.13 100.62 105.63 104.91 108.55 114.98 117.57 136.15 138.99 145.15 154.47 156.82 154.38 9.88 3.87
Netherlands Guilder 3.87 3.52 3.62 3.53 3.56 4.07 5.62 6.61 7.19 8.04 10.10 13.09 17.37 16.63 17.84 20.83 20.46 18.58 20.81 18.94 18.74 19.39 NA NA 13.33 --
Saudi- Riyal 2.48 2.76 2.91 3.09 3.44 3.47 3.49 3.48 3.89 4.38 4.66 6.46 7.98 8.17 8.18 8.70 9.21 9.66 11.04 11.35 12.41 12.67 12.74 -- 10.23 --
Arabia
Switzerland Swiss 4.61 4.64 4.72 4.86 4.81 5.51 7.66 9.03 9.63 10.31 13.38 16.83 21.60 21.33 23.79 28.83 27.51 25.49 28.77 26.22 26.80 29.38 32.69 34.82 13.73 5.02
Franc
UK British £ 18.63 17.22 16.23 15.51 14.95 16.95 19.19 22.20 25.73 26.89 33.06 42.92 51.65 46.99 48.61 52.17 56.19 60.95 68.77 69.70 67.35 69.49 74.76 77.61 8.87 5.15
USA/IBRD US $ 7.96 9.03 9.72 10.41 11.96 12.31 12.86 13.04 14.56 16.63 17.86 24.77 30.60 31.25 31.29 33.33 35.52 37.10 42.33 43.56 45.59 48.73 48.39 45.94 11.87 3.93
ADB/OPEC
*EEC ECU/Euros NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 39.35 36.05 38.11 43.03 43.70 41.15 47.57 41.75 41.28 42.74 47.97 53.89 -- 4.10
IFAD/IDA SDRs 10.18 10.49 10.80 11.55 12.78 14.13 16.72 17.16 19.34 22.33 24.91 33.43 36.94 43.89 45.82 50.50 50.88 50.68 57.61 58.75 59.52 60.85 64.14 65.69 11.34 4.11
Source: Govt of India, External Assistance, (various issues), Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs; Aid, Accounts and Audit Division
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