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Check Sheet for M. Sc. Thesis Proposal and Topic Approval

1 Title Page
2 Table of contents
3 Background and Problem Statement
4 Aims & Objectives
5 Literature Review
6 Methodology of Research
7 Utilization of Research Results
8 Work Schedule Plan
9 Budget Description
10 References
11 Curriculum Vitae
12 Undertaking
13 Board of Post Graduate Studies Remarks

Certified that the Synopsis/Topic approval report is according to the items listed in Check
Sheet.

Research Scholar: Director Postgraduate Studies,

Department of Mechanical Engg

Name _________________ Name ___________________

Signature ______________ Signature ________________

Date __________________ Date ____________________

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 M.Sc. Thesis Proposal

ENERGY ANALYSIS IN CPEC ECONOMIC ZONE

A CASE STUDY OF HATTAR PAKISTAN
Submitted By

MUHAMMAD ADEEM ZAHID

15-MS-ENE-PT-12

Supervisor
Assistant Professor
ENGR. TANZEEL-UR-RASHID

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENGINEERING

FACULTY OF MECHANICAL & AERONAUTICAL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
TAXILA

OCT 2016

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 Table of Contents
sr.# Name Page #

1 Background and Problem Statement 4

2 Research Questions + Aim & Objectives 5

3 Literature Review 6

5 Methodology of Research 8

6 Utilization of Research Results 10

7 Work Schedule Plan 10

8 Budget Description 10

9 References 11

10 Curriculum Vitae 13

11 Undertaking 14

12 Supervisor’s Comments 14

13 Board of Post Graduate Studies Remarks 14

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1. Background

Currently, whole world is facing energy challenges in terms of depleting conventional

fuels, substantial cost, and increasing environmental problems. The Industries consume
55% of total energy supply. Similarly at national level, Pakistan is going through the
worst energy crisis of its history. In Pakistan, the building sector consumes about 40% of
total energy supply and it is increasing rapidly due to energy intensive life style. Non
residential buildings consume significant amount of commercial energy.Non residential
buildings include industries, hospitals and educational institutes, but our main focus on
Industries which consume more energy than the other building side. So there is a dire
need to focus on the energy consumption of Industries, that how they consume energy?
How to overcome the problem of inefficient technology to be replaced with the efficient
technology? Awareness of people in industries is necessary for energy saving. Energy
demand management is necessary for proper allocation of available resources. Industries
operation or working mostly in day time, so why we not integrate the renewable source
like solar energy? There is no energy audit in Industries and forecasting of these
Industries and no analysis of renewable energy resources. So there is a dire need to asses’
current energy requirement, energy modeling and energy demand forecasting of
industries. Due to the limited energy options, our main emphasis on the renewable energy
resources integrated in industries to fulfill the energy demand and overcome future energy
crisis.

2. Problem Statement

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a multi-billion dollar infrastructure

investment project, is heralded as a game changer for Pakistan’s economy and for
regional cooperation more generally. Energy generation will be a major focus of the
CPEC project, with approximately $33 billion expected to be invested in this sector
With the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor brought onto the fast track of construction
and major political hurdles eliminated, we are expecting to see it progress to the stage
where dozens of Special Economic Zones or Industrial Zones are to be established along
the corridor. On long term for executing CPEC initiatives, we need to build institutional
mechanism and different proposals are under consideration to this effect. This initiative of
CPEC will become operation when Pakistan will show possessing appetite for receiving
$46 billion mainly for energy and infrastructure projects
The current and continuing economic downturn facing by industries will continue to
challenge us financially for the next several years. Non residential buildings consume
significant amount of commercial energy. It is essential that industries continue to explore
every possible action to reduce operating costs.The in-efficient use of energy in our
industries is the main cause of energy crisis in industries.Production Operations and
Energy Management need to look toward new and different methods for conserving
energy and reducing energy related utility costs; therefore, executing a professional
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energy management program is essential. Requirement of energy in our industries
increasing with time day-by-day and there is no planning on energy uses. There is no
energy audit in industries and forecasting of these industries and no analysis of renewable
energy resources. This Strategic Energy Management Plan (SEMP) is required to provide
a roadmap to achieve our goals. The purpose of the SEMP is to reduce energy
consumption and improve energy efficiency for a safe, secure community.

3. Research Question
The research study will comprise of following questions:
 How to develop SEMP, for reduction of energy consumption and
improvement of energy efficiency in industries?
 How to establish organizational and financial structures that will enable the
plan?

4. Aim & Objectives

The proposed research aim is to make an energy model of industries and forecast their
energy demand using the techniques of energy demand forecasting. Additionally, an
evaluation of affordable renewable technologies scheme that is capable of providing a
cost effective energy production system for industries. This base model can be extended
for other industries of Pakistan in future.
The primary objective of energy management is to minimize costs through judicious and
effective use of energy. This is particularly important for any organization during
financially challenging times. In economic terms, any new activity can be justified only if
it is cost effective; that is, the net result must show a cost reduction greater than the cost
of the activity. Energy management has proven time and time again that it is cost
effective.

The objectives of the research include:

 Data collection of Energy supply and consumption and analysis.

 Energy Modeling using HOMER and TIMES.
 Energy Demand Forecasting of industries
 Integration of RETs and measures of energy efficiency in industries
 Evaluate required investments in capital and operating cost.
 Establish organizational and financial structures that will enable the Plan.

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5. Literature Review

In past few decades Industries have become rapidly growing energy consumption sector.
Industrial sector in Pakistan consumes 40 % of total energy supply [1]. This increasing
energy consumption is strongly associated with escalating carbon emissions [2]
According to IEA report, in 2011 globally CO 2 emissions were 31.3 GtCO2 and sector
contribution of electricity and heat generation was 42% of total CO 2 [3]. The same
scenario subsists in Pakistan. There has been a growing interest in reducing energy
consumption and associated GHG emissions in each sector of the economy. Energy
demand management is necessary for proper allocation of available resources [4]. Our
climate is being polluted by burning fossil fuels. Global warming is causing seasonal
shifts. Dangerous gases are affecting oxygen content. Different types of diseases are due
to polluted air and water. The fear of depletion of fossil fuels and emission of dangerous
gases has compelled to think about alternate energy sources. Otherwise there will be
energy crisis and comfort of life will end. [5]. Research and development efforts across
all industries are driven by the goal of improving the productivity of industrial processes.
Improvements can come in a variety of ways, including lower capital costs and operating
costs, increased yields, and reductions in resource and energy use. [6]. Energy
forecasting models are developed specific to a nation or utility depending on the
economic and market conditions prevailing. There are different models and tools
proposed for energy demand management in the literature [7]. Time series models are the
most simplest of models which uses time series trend analysis for extrapolating the future
energy requirement. Load forecasting of electric energy demand has been examined
by several researchers. In short term forecasting ranging from an hour to over a week,
temperature, humidity along with past consumption is considered for demand projection
[8-10]. Energy forecasts are very important in the framing of energy of environment
policies. Regression models have been used to forecast the coal, oil, gas, electricity
requirement. Regression models are also used for electric load forecasting –short term
electric load forecasting and long term electric load forecasting [11-13]. Econometric
models correlate the energy demand with other Macro-economic variables. Econometric
models are developed to forecast energy consumption as a function of GNP, energy price,
technology, and population. An economic model considers the price of electricity, oil, gas,
coal, total energy demand and technological progress. The statistical model has the
economic model embedded in its equation along with the error correction term. The
results from the two models are then processes for structural change and stability [14-
16].Two common approaches to decomposition are the energy consumption (EC) and the
energy intensity (EI) approaches. In the energy consumption approach, the basic specified
effects are associated with the change in aggregate production level, structural change in
production, and changes in sectoral energy intensities, while in the energy intensity
approach only the last two effects are considered. The decomposition is used to energy
prediction. A decomposition model is used for predicting aggregate energy demand.
Decomposition models are also applied source wise – for oil, electricity. The studies
carried out for oil, electricity are reviewed. Factor Decomposition method and System
Dynamics (SD) modeling is used to predict the pattern of future oil consumption per
capita [17-19]. ARIMA models have been extensively used in energy demand forecasting.
A decision support system for forecasting fossil fuel production is developed using
regression, ARIMA and SARIMA method [20, 21]. In the past, expert systems and neural
networks were being used extensively for electricity load forecasting. In recent times, it is
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also being used for long term energy demand projections considering macro economic
variables. Neural network is used to model the energy consumption of appliances,
lighting, and space-cooling in residential sector the paper analyses the world green energy
consumption through artificial neural networks (ANN). The world primary energy
consumption including fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas is also considered [22,
23]. The MARKAL model depicts both the energy supply and demand sides of the
energy system. It is an analytical tool that can be adapted to model different
energy systems at the national, state and regional level [24]. A research analyses the
sectored energy consumption pattern and emissions of CO2and local air pollutants
in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal using MARKAL model [25]. Another research is
carried out to determine long term energy demand and CO2emission for China is
forecast using TIMES G5 model. Source wise and sector wise energy demand on
basis of the key indicators such as population, GDP, person-km, GDP per capita,
heating per capita, cooking per capita, heating per GDP, cooling per GDP [26]. The
Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was developed by
the Stockholm Environment Institute at Boston (SEI-B). It is a bottom-up-type
accounting framework which is used for forecasting. The LEAP Model also has
been developed to model the energy needs at the national, state and regional level
[27]. Energy consumption of EEB cannot be zero even after adopting best efficient
measures and energy will still be required for day to day operation. So, third energy
saving measure is the integration of Renewable Energy in energy production system on-
site or off-site. The European Commission released the European Energy Policy Plan (20-
20-20) in 2007, to be achieved within 2020, consisting of (I) a 20% reduction of CO2
emissions; (II) a 20% improvement in energy processes; and (III) a 20% replacement of
primary energy with renewable energy [28]. Solar PV/Thermal, wind turbine, geothermal
heating/cooling, biomass gas/electricity generators are mostly used energy generation
systems [29].

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6. Methodology of Research

In first phase of this research industries energy consumption data will be collected.
Generally industries can be categorized in four sections; Primary Industries,
Manufacturing industry, Services industry, Quaternary Industries. Each industry section
has different trend of energy consumption on the basis of occupant’s schedule. Energy
end use data can also be categorized in electricity, gas and fuel oil. So end use data will be
collected for all industry. In second phase energy demand curves will be developed on the
basis of data collected and energy consumption drivers by using regression analysis.
Third phase of this research is energy demand forecasting of each energy end use
(Electricity, gas and fuel oil) for four industry sections. HOMER/TIMES are matured
energy modeling tools and also have optimization capability. So these two tools will be
used for energy demand forecasting. In next phase of the research future interventions
would be developed for industry. Future interventions will focus on energy efficiency and
conventional energy resources saving. Thus it includes energy efficiency measures and
integration of renewable energy resources (solar energy systems). First one comprises of
retrofitting of existing industry. Retrofitting includes replacement of conventional
Technology with energy efficient Technology and energy efficient heating/cooling
systems with traditional systems. Second component of this phase is integration of
renewable energy systems in the industry especially solar energy systems due to abundant
availability all over Pakistan. Three solar energy systems can be integrated in existing
industry, solar space cooling/heating and solar PV system for electricity generation. A base
model will be developed for Hattar Industrial state Pakistan using this research
methodology. Then a road map will be developed to expand this model for all Industries
in Pakistan.

6.1. Expected Results

After the compilation of data and forecast the energy demand of industry, End-use models
will be developed that will generate the following results:

 Energy demand forecasting of industry

 Development of an energy model for Industry which will lead to achieve energy
efficiency in existing technology
 Renewable energy integrated industry model

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 Research Methodology Diagram

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7. Utilization of Research Results
This research will help industries to have a better idea about future energy consumption, so
that they could manage their resources accordingly. This research will also propose a
roadmap for industries to overcome energy crisis. It will also illustrate how to make existing
Technology energy efficient and energy standards for future buildings.

8. Work Schedule Plan

Jan- Mar- May-

Activity Nov-Dec July aug
Feb Apr june
Collection of Literature 9.
Study of Literature
Analysis of Proposed
Scheme
Preparation of Schemes /
Model
Implementation of
Schemes/Model
Modeling

Result Formulation
Final Write-up & Thesis
Submission
Budget Description
NO

10.References

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 1. PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK 2013 An official annual publication of the
Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources. March
2013.
2. (Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets:
Case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Ram M. Shresthan, Salony Rajbhandari).
3. Eleftheriadis, I.M. and E.G. Anagnostopoulou, Identifying barriers in the
diffusion of renewable energy sources. Energy Policy, 2015. 80: p. 153-
164.
4. (Energy and emissions forecast of China over a long-time horizon Ullash K. Rout,
Alfred Vob, Anoop Singh, Ulrich Fahl, Markus Blesl, Brian P. Ó Gallachóir).
5. Painuly, J.P., Barriers to renewable energy penetration;a frame work for
analysis. Renew.Energy, 2001. 24: p. 73–89.
6. (The Rosen, M. and I. Dincer, Sectoral energy and exergy modeling of
Turkey. Journal of energy resources technology, 1997. 119(3): p. 200-204.
7. (Energy models for demand forecasting—A review L. Suganthi , Anand A.
Samuel).
8. (Hagan MT, Behr SM. The time series approach to short term load
forecasting. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 1987;PWRS-2:785–91).
9. (Fan JY, McDonald JD. A real-time implementation of short-term load
forecasting for distribution power systems. IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems 1994;9:988–94).
10. (Amjady N. Short-term hourly load forecasting using time series modeling
with peak load estimation capability. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
2001;16:798–805).
11. Farahbalhsh H, Ugursal VI, Fung AS. A residential enduse energy
consumption model for Canada. Energy Research 1998;22:1133–43.
12. Sharma DP, Chandramohanan Nair PS, Balasubramanian R. Residential
demand for electrical energy in the state of Kerala: an econometric analysis
with medium range projections. In: Proceedings of the IEEE power
engineering society winter meeting. 2000.
13. Al-Hamadi HM, Soliman SA. Long-term/mid-term electric load forecasting
based on short-term correlation and annual growth. Electrical Power and
Energy Systems 2005;74(3):353–61.
14. Samouilidis JE, Mitropoulos CS. Energy and economic growth in
industrialized countries. Energy Economics 1984:191–201.
15. Suganthi L, Jagadeesan TR. A modified model for prediction of India’s
future energy requirement. Energy and Environment 1992;3(4):371–86.
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 16. McAvinchey ID, Yannopoulos A. Stationarity, structural change and
specification in a demand system: the case of energy. Energy Economics
2003;25(1):65–92.
17. Ang BW. Decomposition methodology in industrial energy demand analysis.
Energy 1995;20(11):1081–95.
18. Ang BW. Multilevel decomposition of industrial energy consumption.
Energy Economics 1995;17(1):39–51.
19. Tao Z. Scenarios of China’s oil consumption per capita (OCPC) using a
hybrid Factor Decomposition-System Dynamics (SD) simulation. Energy
2010;35(1):168–80.
20. Ediger VS, Akar S. ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel
in Turkey. Energy Policy 2007;35:1701–8.
21. Erdogdu E. Natural gas demand in Turkey. Applied Energy 2010;87:211–9.
22. Aydinalp M, Ismet Ugursal V, Fung AS. Modeling of the appliance,
lighting, and space-cooling energy consumptions in the residential sector
using neural networks. Applied Energy 2002;71(2):87–110.
23. Ermis K, Midilli A, Dincer I, Rosen MA. Artificial neural network analysis
of world green energy use. Energy Policy 2007;35(3):1731–43.
24. Smekens K. Response from a MARKAL technology model to the EMF
scenario assumptions. Energy Economics 2004; 26:655–74. IEA. Energy
technology perspectives 2008: scenarios and strategies to 2050. Paris:
International Energy Agency; 2008.
25. Shrestha RM, Rajbhandari S. Energy and environmental implications of
carbon emission reduction targets: case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Energy
Policy 2010;38(9):4818–27
26. Rout UK, Vo A, Singh A, Fahl U, Blesl M, Gallachóir BPO. Energy and
emissions forecast of China over a long-time horizon. Energy 2011; 36:1–11
27. Lazarus M, Heaps C, Raskin P. Long range energy alternatives planning
system (LEAP). Reference manual. Boston, MA: Boston Stockholm
Environment Institute (SEI); 1995.
28. Capros, P., et al., Analysis of the EU policy package on climate change and
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29. Marszal, A.J., et al., Zero Energy Building–A review of definitions and
calculation methodologies. Energy and Buildings, 2011. 43(4): p. 971-979.

11.Curriculum Vitae
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Muhammad Adeem Zahid
Cell # 0332-6445322
NIC # 32203-1186124-3
adeem.zahid007@gmail.com
Objective:
I am interested to be a part of a growing organization that offer challenging tasks in a
healthy work environment.

Qualification:
 M.Sc. in Energy Engineering (In progress)
UET Taxila

 Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering 2011 to 2015

Wah Engineering College, Wah Cantt

 Intermediate,
Layyah college of science, Layyah 2008 to 2010

 Matriculation, 2006 to 2008

Tops pre cadet school, Layyah

.
Experiences:
Internship at PAKISTAN ORDNANCE FACTORIES WAH CANTT in 2014.
(6 weeks).

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12. Undertaking

I certify that research work titled “ ENERGY ANALYSIS IN CPEC ECONOMIC ZONE:sA
CASE STUDY OF HATTAR PAKISTAN” is my own work. The work has not, in whole or
in part, been presented elsewhere for assessment. Where material has been used from other
sources it has been properly acknowledged.

Muhammad Adeem zahid

15-MS-EnE-PT-12

13.Supervisor’s Comments

Engr. Tanzeel-ur-Rashid
Assistant Professor

14.Board of Post Graduate Studies Remarks

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