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Using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to simulate, within

the context of the Intentionally-Linked Entities (ILE)
database management system, missing information:
To explain self-organization and emergence in world commercial and political
networks during the First Global Age, 1400-18001

Paper for the session “Social Network Analysis and Multi-Relational Databases on
Comparative Studies in China and Europe”; 18th World Economic History
Congress, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge,
Massachusetts, USA, July 29-August 3, 2018 [Tues., 31 July, Session A, 9:00 am
– 12:30 pm, Room 5: Samberg Conference Center, MIT]

J. B. Owens
Research Professor and Professor Emeritus of History
Idaho State University
ISU-Meridian Health Sciences Center
Meridian, Idaho, USA
owenjack@isu.edu

Vitit Kantabutra
Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering
Idaho State University
Pocatello, Idaho, USA
kantviti@isu.edu

Historians of the commercial and political networks of the First Global Age,
1400-1800, never possess sufficient information to explain self-organization and
emergence in the complex, nonlinear system of this period. For certain historical
periods, for certain, often-large geographic areas, and for many common human
interactions, either no one created sources or those that were created have not
survived. For the rest, we often use sources that are fragmentary, ambiguous,
contradictory, or otherwise messy. For historical comparisons of regions, such as
those attempted during the “great divergence” debate over the past twenty
years or more, we can employ records, which government officials in the past
frequently kept. However, historians find that these sources often respond to
such different fiscal, military, and social concerns and patterns of behavior that
attempts to create comparable data sets, for example for the gross domestic
products of eighteenth-century China and England, have generated much more
atmospheric turbulence than clarity.
                                                            
1
 Kantabutra and Owens are grateful to the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), which funded some of the
research discussed in this paper through the collaborative, multidisciplinary project “Understanding Social
Networks within Complex, Nonlinear Systems: Geographically-Integrated History and Dynamics GIS
[SOCNET]” (Grants No. 0941371 [$1,290.704; lead project Principal Investigator Dr. J. B. Owens, Idaho State
University] and No. 0941501 [$471,193; Principal Investigator Dr. May Yuan, University of Oklahoma (now
University of Texas, Dallas)], for a total award of $1,761,897 [2009-2013; extended to 2014]. NSF funded the
project through a program called “Cyber-Enabled Discovery and Innovation” (CDI). CDI had three themes:
Data to Knowledge, Understanding Complex Systems, and Virtual Organizations. Any opinions, findings, and
conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the National Science Foundation. 

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We propose the use of computational artificial intelligence (AI) modeling, and

specifically agent-based modeling (ABM), to simulate needed information,
making use of what we know from the available sources. We literally mean the
use of the word “propose” because we will solicit research funding from the U.S.
National Science Foundation (NSF).

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