Urban Transport

In Indonesia

Battle against urban gridlocks

that we had never won

Deep Dive Urban Transport Workshop

Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018

Prof Suyono Dikun

University of Indonesia
The footprint of urban transport
Post independent New Order Transition Democracy Era Jokowi
1945-1970 1970-1998 1998-2004 2004-2014 Administration
2014-2019
 Transport inherited  Transport under  Still public  New laws  Urban transport is
from colonial era tight and heavy monopoly implemented the most developed
 No fiscal space no regulated public  Political instability  Transport industry facilities in the
money to take care monopoly by law and urban transport and market are policy mainstream
of  New Order stayed poor opened for private of building massive
 Traditional and government started  Urban transport was investment and fast
poor service public to build transport not in the  But urban transport infrastructure at all
transport with the first toll mainstream yet was practically regions.
 But there were road-Jagorawi  But Jakarta untouched  BRT developing fast
tramways in  Government was introduced the first  Beginning of  LRT and MRT
Jakarta and slow to respond to BRT system in 2004 revolution of public under construction
Surabaya. increasing urban which was transport with BRT  Other big cities
transport demand revolutionary. system in Jakarta follow.
 Transport Demand
Management
implemented.

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
2
 The likelihood of future urban transport

2018-2019 2020-2024 2025-2035 2036-2045

New RPJPN 2025- New RPJPN 2025-
End of RPJMN III RPJMN IV
2045 Decade of 2045 Decade of
Trajectory non-
Action I Action II
linear

 Some of the national priority

 Jabotabek Rail to carry 1-2  BRT Jakarta continues to perform  Some big cities have also built
projects would be completed
million passengers per day well with increasing capacity and BRT and or LRT systems.
 BRT Jakarta continues to perform
 BRT Jakarta continues to perform modern buses and expanding the  TOD has become a strategy for
well with increasing capacity and
well with increasing capacity and networks dampening the needs for driving
modern buses
modern buses  LRT Jabodebek and MRT Jakarta cars in the city
 LRT Jabodebek and MRT Jakarta
 LRT Jabodebek and MRT Jakarta have operated well and gradually  Telecommuting in working
are expected to reach final stage
are expected to start operation gaining urban trip makers as new stations or at home have
prior to operation
 Additional urban toll roads are shifted passengers increased in numbers and quality
 Additional public transport supply
constructed to accommodate  Six urban toll roads in Jakarta and capacity of broadband
to shift trip makers from
through trips amongst Bodetabek would add capacity but problems serving the works
cars/motorcycles to public
areas remain.  Several cities have been
transport
 Travel demand management  Most urban roads have reached redesigned as smart cities and
 Travel demand management
continues to play a significant their capacity limit due to land fully operational
scheme continues to be
role scarcity and expensive land  Transport technology,
implemented successfully
 Palembang LRT system paves acquisition autonomous cars, electric
 Other big cities are prepared to
the way for modern public  Cities have becoming smart and vehicles have become new
follow as stipulated in the master
transport at other cities. telecommuting for white collar modes of urban raveling.
plan/blue prints.
workers are flourishing...
Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
 Strategy of RPJMN 2015-2019
Very likely to be continued in 2020-2024

2.543 T

Sumber: Bappenas, 2017

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
4
 Urban Mobility

2.543 T

Sumber: Bappenas, 2017

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
5
 Transit Oriented Development
JANGKA PENDEK - 2019

2.543 T
MALL KELAPA
GADING

JR CONNEXION

JA CONNEXION

LIPPO CIKARANG

LIPPO
KARAWACI
GRAND
WISATA

SUMMARECON
SERPONG

KAWASAN PERUMAHAN CIBUBUR

BANGKITAN JR Connexion

CITRA
INDAH
CITY

Jabodetabek is projected to have

CITEREUP

TERMINAL
CIBINONG
CIBINONG around 32 TODs along the
transport corridors.
Sumber: BPTJ-RITJ, 2017

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
6
 164

The Population 160

145
159
153

2010 2015 2020

137
Population Projection 2035 140
2025 2030 2035
2010 2045 120 Indonesia Population Projection
2010-2035 (mil.) by Region
Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA,
238,5 juta 318,7 juta
100
Oct. 2013

Year 2010-2035
Jumlah Penduduk2 80
66
2,5 1,9 62,9
59,4
55,3
60 50,9
Total Fertility Rate2

69,8 tahun 72,8 tahun

40
22
21,1
Harapan Hidup2 16,8 15,4
15,9
15,1
14,1
19,3 17,5
18,1
16,8
13,9
20
18,7
20 13,2
5,2
4,8
3,6 3,744,4
11,9 juta
3,4
42,8 juta 238 248 258 268 278 288 298 308 2,6 3,1
2,9
Population (Mil.) 0
Jumlah lansia (65+)2

51,1% 50,2%
Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035 (mil.) Source:
Rasio Ketergantungan2 Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, Oct. 2013. @2045 population is
Jawa will still be the most
projected to reach 320 million.
populated island 30 years from
now.
2010 2045

49,8% 69,1% Transport must

Penduduk tinggal be prepared to
di perkotaan1
shoulder the
Jumlah penduduk usia produktif Indonesia
merupakan yang terbesar di Asia Tenggara 3 population burdens
Sumber Data: 1Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2035
2Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2045
3UN Population Prospect 2010-2085

02/03/2018
7
The Paradox of Jawa
Population Projection of Jawa 2010-2035 (Mil)
Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, October 2013
2035
Population will grow to 168 million people in Jawa in 2035 168 Mil
and will probably arrive at 180 million in 2045. Jawa will
remain the biggest contributor to national economy by
around 58-60% of GDP.

2030
164 Mil

2025
159 Mil

2020
153 Mil

2015 Despite the facts that Jawa will continue as the center of national economic
145 Mil
development and the most populous island in the country, study conducted
2010
137 Mil
by Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs in 2006 and 2007 has found
that indeed Jawa’s carrying capacity has declined consistently during the last
four decades. Three main variables were investigated by the study:
watershed deterioration, environmental print, and green GDP.

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun 8
 Urbanization
Urban transport is facing tremendous challenges
Average, % of Total Population

81
77,8
Urbanization 74,6
Rate Jawa 71,5
68,4
65,4

66,6
63,4
Urbanization
60
Rate
56,7
Indonesia 53,3
49,8

2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010

Source: BPS-Bappenas-UNFPA, 2013

Courtesy of:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopme
nt/publication/urbanization-reviews
What forces triggered the massive movement of people from rural to urban areas? The answers
are obvious. First, is the marginalization of rural economy where agriculture, the biggest sector
absorbing workforce so far, has consistently declined, forcing farmers and peasants to sell their
agricultural land and gradually turning them into landless sporadic workers. When they have
spent up their money for consumption purposes and finally found that rural economy can no
longer provide opportunity for them to survive, they invade urban areas as the last resort to earn
money with whatever means they have. Rural transport, believed to be a factor triggering rural
economy has been sidelined from the major transport undertakings.

Technocratic Paper
RPJMN 2015-2019 Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
9
Automobile & Motorcycles Blight

 Jabodetabek will
reach 30 million
inhabitants very
soon.
 Jakarta alone with
more than 10
million people is
the venue for more
than 4 million
vehicles and more
than 13 million
motorcycles.
 Trip makers spend
on the average 2-4
hour per day on the
roads
07 April 2018
Courtesy of
Prof. Suyono Dikun
Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun Page 10
10
 MRT vs Urban Toll

Should private cars be banned?

 The problem of urban congestion has become so great that many
communities are coming to the conclusion that there could never be
sufficient highway and parking capacity to permit the movement of all
people in private cars.
 The opinion was frequently expressed that cities were suffering
from "automobile blight"; that if the automobile were banned from
downtown areas and satisfactory mass transportation provided
instead, congestion would be relieved and greater freedom of
movement would assure economic survival for the city.
 The cities just cannot resign themselves to automobiles and let
mass transportation slide to ruin and extinction.
 They must preserve mass transportation or stagnate. Downtown is
doomed to die unless cities
 Critics insist that elaborate urban expressways are futile because of
the tremendous reservoir of traffic waiting to absorb any new street
capacity.
 Urban expressways and parking facilities not only will not solve the
problem of congestion but will actually make it worse.
 Those who try to accommodate the private automobiles "is doomed
to inevitable failure”; the better they do their job the greater will be
their failure".

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
11
 MRT vs Urban Toll

The only relief from congestion has been

possible because of the motorized vehicles

 The counter argument was then constructed by asserting the facts  Critics of automobiles defended by arguing that if mass
that while congestion originally provided the excuse for the subway, transportation is not the answer, what of the possibilities of modern
the subway has now become the further excuse for congestion. highways to relieve the city of the congestion that inadequate
It was further argued that the automobile, far from being a cause of transportation once made necessary?
urban congestion, has in fact made possible a necessary de-
concentration of population through the decentralization of urban
living and working.
It can be argued that the only relief from congestion has been
possible because of the motorized vehicles.

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
12
 Neither MRT nor Urban Toll

These devices are pure deception….

 Then come the balancing argument of demand side  As long as nothing is done fundamentally to rehabilitate
management that seemed convincing; “that neither urban toll the cities themselves, the quicker will people forsake them
roads nor mass rapid transportation nor any other and the greater the problems for those left behind to cope
mechanical contrivance can solve the problems of massive with”.
urban congestion.
As a solution of the traffic problem these devices are pure
deception. Putting the emphasis on supplying transportation
facilities rather than controlling the demand serves only to
aggravate congestion.

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
13
 Neither MRT nor Urban Toll

3. and finally that

2. that the
1. We have the assurance, automobile
neither is the primary
culprit, but rather a
therefore, that the problem of (urban toll) and host of other factors
congestion in urban areas mass that have resulted in
has been precipitated by the transportation the successful
automobile; that the (MRT)are both attempt to crowd too
automobile, on the contrary, guilty of many people and too
has been our escape from promoting much economic
congestion; congestion; activity into too little
space.

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
14
 Replanning and rebuilding the cities

Cities thus face the

difficult task of Should they
arriving at decisions emphasize
that will determine to expressways and
a major degree their
physical and financial 4 parking facilities to
future. accommodate
.
automobile use, or
modernize mass
5
transport facilities in
the hope of restoring
lost patronage and
6 reducing the number
of vehicles entering
the city?

Or will solutions depend

instead on the extensive re-
planning and rebuilding of
the cities?

Deep Dive Workshop of Urban Transport Bappenas, Palembang 24 July 2018 @ From the Desk of Prof. Suyono Dikun
15