Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
1. Quiebre Estructural
2. MA
3. ARMA
Quiebre Estructural
Andrews, D., Zivot, E. 1992. the unit-root hypothesis.
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10, 251-70.
Zivot-Andrews test for sales, 1991q4-1998q2
Min breakpoint at 1997q1
-6
Breakpoint t-statistics
-6.5
-7
-7.5
-8
1990q1 1992q3 1995q1 1997q3 2000q1
t
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lngpop | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnpg | .0903026 .0578356 1.56 0.129 -.0276539 .208259
lnpnc | -.9537504 .226923 -4.20 0.000 -1.416563 -.490938
lnpuc | .0191098 .1463052 0.13 0.897 -.2792816 .3175013
year | .0491613 .0042717 11.51 0.000 .0404491 .0578734
_cons | -91.47425 8.400045 -10.89 0.000 -108.6063 -74.34224
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
scatter g pg, mlabel(year) c(L) lc(red)
300
1995
1994
1989 1993
1988 1990
1992
1987
1986 1991
1978
250
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
150
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
100
1 2 3 4
pg
Test Cusum
0 0
CUSUM
1966 1995
year
0
1975
1974 1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
-10
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
-20
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
-30
CUSUM lower
upper
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lngpop | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnpg | -.0830649 .0446494 -1.86 0.075 -.1752167 .0090868
lnpnc | -.2501158 .1752066 -1.43 0.166 -.6117246 .1114929
lnpuc | -.3365635 .1059405 -3.18 0.004 -.555214 -.1179129
year | .0600739 .0030718 19.56 0.000 .0537339 .0664139
_cons | -112.9735 6.043383 -18.69 0.000 -125.4464 -100.5006
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lngpop | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnpg | .0732959 .1768227 0.41 0.719 -.6875109 .8341027
lnpnc | -.5156304 .523494 -0.98 0.428 -2.768043 1.736782
lnpuc | .550505 .1709171 3.22 0.084 -.184892 1.285902
year | -.0033782 .0137596 -0.25 0.829 -.0625811 .0558247
_cons | 11.96934 26.85416 0.45 0.699 -103.5748 127.5135
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. .
. .
Test de Chow
Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two
Linear Regressions
Gregory C. Chow
Econometrica
Vol. 28, No. 3 (Jul., 1960), pp. 591-605
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
inc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
edu | 1.841002 .383369 4.80 0.000 1.081018 2.600986
exp | 1.590727 .3569439 4.46 0.000 .8831278 2.298327
_cons | 1.783822 .3818906 4.67 0.000 1.026769 2.540876
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
inc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
edu | 2.475213 .3160483 7.83 0.000 1.851165 3.099261
exp | 1.354081 .3043211 4.45 0.000 .7531885 1.954974
_cons | 1.250719 .3132966 3.99 0.000 .6321043 1.869334
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Robust
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Male_mean |
edu | 1.841002 .3911029 4.71 0.000 1.074454 2.607549
exp | 1.590727 .3320187 4.79 0.000 .9399827 2.241472
_cons | 1.783822 .3829948 4.66 0.000 1.033166 2.534478
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Male_lnvar |
_cons | 2.769848 .1328349 20.85 0.000 2.509497 3.0302
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Female_mean |
edu | 2.475213 .3093986 8.00 0.000 1.868803 3.081623
exp | 1.354081 .2982058 4.54 0.000 .7696084 1.938554
_cons | 1.250719 .3122779 4.01 0.000 .638666 1.862773
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Female_lnvar |
_cons | 2.795977 .0976384 28.64 0.000 2.604609 2.987344
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
chi2( 3) = 2.99
Prob > chi2 = 0.3933
B. Probamos si todos los coeficientes son iguales, excepto el
intercepto
chi2( 2) = 1.79
Prob > chi2 = 0.4082
Medias Móviles
ARMA
Un proceso ARMA(p,q) incluye una parte autoregresiva
como una de medias móviles, expresándose el proceso de
la siguiente manera:
Tener en cuenta_
) + 2N
BIC= ) + N ln(T)
Ojo:
Predicción
Los modelos ARMA son bastante empleados para realizar
predicciones.