EV Car Wars

Who will win the battle between BEVs, PHEVs & FCEVs?

IQPC E-Motor Conference

February the 15th

Expected decline in battery prices drove vehicle manufacturers to develop
Battery Electric vehicles with larger electric range

Lithium Ion Battery Pack* Cost Ranges Trend & Forecast

1.400
1.200 Historical Forecast
1.000 900

800 550
600 430
600 300
400
Max
200 350
Min
200 120
0
2010 2012 2016 2018 2020

Lithium Ion Battery Pack* Cost Ranges by Industry Player

Ford 2016
LG Chem
BYD
NEC
Tesla
$200 $300 $400 $500 $600

Battery Pack Price/kWh

* BMS not included

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Audi and Mercedes plan to launch EVs with 60 kWh+ batteries and ultra fast
charging capability to compete with Tesla on range and charging time

OEM Model Charging Specifications

• Charging Capacity – 350kW

• Battery size – 80kWh
• Range – 200 miles
• Charging time ~10 min
• Launch year – 2019
Maybach 6

• Charging Capacity – Initially 150kW

and going up to 350kW
• Battery Size – 95kWh
• Range – 200+ miles
• Charging time ~15-20 min
e-Tron Quattro • Launch year – 2018/19

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By 2021, 30 BEVs with over 200 miles autonomy have been announced to
be launched

Note: Includes announced

and speculated launches
Chevrolet Bolt 2018 Nissan Leaf Jaguar crossover Volvo SPA
(240m) (200+m) (300m) (300m)

Aston Martin RapidE Hyundai / KIA SUV PSA EMP2 Ford Model E
(200+m) (200-300m) (280m) (200m)
VW Phaeton
Audi Q6
(300+m)
(300+m)

Audi R8 gen 2
(280m) Pajun EV VW eGolf Audi Q8
(250m) (300m) Boxster (300m) (370+m) Porsche Mission E (310 m)

Mercedes will have a dedicated architecture for electric

vehicles known as Electric Vehicle Architecture (EVA) EQ Larger than GLS - Coupe Saloon – S Class
with the aim of 300+ miles on this platform
B class with 250M range
Between C & E Class
Model S
(220- 302m) Post 2020, new set of super car
electrics is set to compete with
Roadster 2.0 Tesla such as NextEV, Faraday
Model X
Model 3 (target 400 m) Future, etc with 200+m range
(220- 289m) Model Y
(215+ m)
(250+ m)
Existing 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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With the future launch of those EVs with 200+ miles range, the industry is
wondering whether PHEVs is only a short term solution or whether it is
expected to contribute significantly to the future of the electric mobility

Vehicles & End-

Risks
Users Targeted
• Weight < 1.5 tons • Requires the deployment of a fast charging network
• Segment A & B • Electricity grid constrains at local level as well as on highway
BEVs • Urban corridors
• Commuting • Limits on cobalt and lithium availability if deployed in large scale
• 2nd vehicle • Limited range in highway driving conditions

• Limited incentives compared to BEV as not 100% electric

• Weight > 1.5 tons
• Electricity grid constrains at local level
• Segment D & Higher
PHEVs • More complex architecture as embarking 2 powertrains
• Suburban & Rural
• Some end-users don’t charge it
• Unique vehicles
• NEDC cycle too optimistic on fuel consumption & CO2 emissions

• Weight > 1.5 tons • Needs renewable electricity to produce clean hydrogen &
• Segment D & Higher increase well to well energy efficiency
FCEVs • Expensive fuelling infrastructure to be deployed
• Suburban & Rural
• Unique vehicles • Limits on platinum availability if deployed in large scale

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 Affordability
The battery size difference between BEVs and PHEVs is expected to increase which will provide
PHEVs with a cost advantage on larger vehicles

BEV & PHEV battery capacity & electric range roadmap

Capacity

PHEV 5-10 kWh 10-20kWh 20-30kWh

Battery

BEV 20-30kWh 30-60kWh 60-90kWh

Electric

PHEV 20-40 km 40-60 km 80-100 km

Range

BEV Up to 200 km 200-400 km +400 km

2010 2015 2020

• Battery size difference between BEVs and PHEVs is expected to grow from 10-20 kWh to 40-
60 kWh by 2020 (20-30kWh for PHEV vs. 60-90 kWh for BEV)
• Assuming a $150/kWh battery cost, PHEVs are cost competitive with BEVs if they can
accommodate the combustion engine, fuel tank and generator within 7.5k$ - 50kWh battery
capacity difference between BEV & PHEV multiplied by of $150/kWh battery cost
• A lithium prices doubling will provide a 1.5k$ cost advantage to PHEVs vs. BEVs (50kWh x
$30/kWh) and make battery cost target of $100/kWh hard to reach with a $60/kWh Lithium BoM
 PHEVs are expected to remain cheaper than BEVs on larger vehicles

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Metal Independence
Shifting the resource availability issue from oil to metals do not address it – it only moves it

Lithium Cobalt
Lithium bicarbonate price (US$/tonne)

supply vs. demand

Refined Cobalt
January 2015 to March 2016

• 1 kWh Li-ion LCA battery = 1.2 kg of Lithium
Hydroxide = 200 gr of Lithium = $30 lithium BoM*
• 80 kWh Li-ion LCA battery = 96 kg of Lithium
Hydroxide = 16 kg of Lithium = 2,4k$ lithium BoM*
• Tesla Gigafactory producing 500,000 batteries
would require 2015 global lithium production for
batteries (35% of global lithium production)
• Lithium prices were multiplied 3 fold in 6 months
 additional cost of 1.6k$ for 80 kWh battery
 BEVs with large batteries more impacted than
PHEVs by price increase due to supply constrain
• 1 kWh Li-ion battery = 100 gr of Cobalt
• 80 kWh Li-ion battery = 8 kg of Cobalt = 240$
• Cobalt is already in supply deficit in 2016
• Cobalt is a by-product of copper & nickel mining
hence limited possibility to increase supply
• Cobalt in rechargeable battery chemicals already
represents about 45% of total cobalt demand
• 60% of mined cobalt comes from RDC & 50% of
the world's refined cobalt from China
 Potential supply constrain & geopolitical risks
for cobalt sourcing

*Bill of Material
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 Highway Range
When driving on highways at 130 km/h, driving range is only 50 to 60% of the NEDC range
for a BEV

BEV battery capacity, NEDC & highway range roadmap

Battery Capacity 20-30kWh 30-60kWh 60-90kWh

NEDC Range Up to 200 km 200-400 km +400 km

Highway Range Up to 100 km 100-200 km +200 km

2010 2015 2020

Power required to balance mechanic

• Even if BEVs are expected to reach 500km & aerodynamic friction forces
22 kW
driving range, it is in city driving conditions 80%

• When driving on highways at 130 km/h, 15 kW

73%

Power (kW)
driving range is 50 to 60% of the NEDC
range 9 kW
65%
• At 130 km/h, the energy consumption more 35% 27% 20%

than double compared to 90 km/h with

aerodynamic forces tripling to account for
80% of friction forces Speed (km/h)
Power to balance mechanical losses
Power to balance aerodynamic losses
Source: Gregory Launay

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Charging Infrastructure Availability
Electric Vehicles will require significant investment to upgrade the local distribution grid and be
able to charge everyday as well as to deploy a fast charging network on highways
Local distribution grid
“If two EV customers on the same transformer
plugged in a 6.6 kW charger each during a peak
time, their load could exceed the emergency
rating of roughly 40% of distribution
transformers in the US” Silver Spring Networks
• Since 6,6 kW chargers draw an electricity load
equivalent to a house (7 kW for a typical
residence), utilities will need to invest in
updating distribution networks and potentially
add generation and transmission capacity.
• Smart grid allowing load shifting will be
critical to ensure smooth charging of multiple
electric vehicle in the same neighbourhood
• The impact on the local grid is expected to be
equivalent between a PHEV and a BEV as they
are likely to charge an equivalent “amount” of
energy – what they used to commute
• Charging power is expected to have the strongest
impact on the local grid
Fast charging on highways
• Fast charging station in fuel stations will have to
connect to the medium voltage grid which
could represent significant installation cost
• Most project under development do not plan to
install more than 2 fast chargers to be
compared with 10+ gasoline/diesel “chargers”
• With a fast charging 3 times as slow as regular
fuelling (30 min vs. 10 min) and 5 times as less
“fuelling” points, availability for “refuelling” large
BEVs will be 15 times more limited than for
regular car
• As most of the drivers tend to travel long distance
at the same moment (week-end, holidays), a
charging infrastructure 15 less available can’t
address this peak demand
• If we only had PHEVs on the road, charging
network availability would be 4 times as high
as with BEVs only since they are expected to
embark 4 times as less battery than BEVs
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Charging Infrastructure Availability
Even with a very dense network of fast chargers, BEVs sales might not follow. In Japan, fast
charging infrastructure already reached saturation levels but EV sales are declining

Number of CHAdeMO chargers installed by Country & in Japan

Source: Nissan

Electric Vehicle Sales in Japan

Source: EV Volumes

• 25,500 electric vehicles were sold in Japan in 2015 out of 5 million passenger car (0.5%)
• Contrary to what the industry believe, BEVs sales might not surge even with large scale
deployment of fast charging infrastructure

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Energy Efficiency
With 80% of electricity coming from thermal plants, FCEV well-to-wheel energy efficiency is
currently twice as low as ICE vehicles at less than 10%

• With 80% of electricity coming from thermal plants, FCEV well-to-wheel energy efficiency
is currently more than twice as low as ICE vehicles at less than 10%
• Clean hydrogen produced from fatal electricity from intermittent renewables is required to
make FCEV an energy efficient alternative
• Renewable energies are only expected to reach 8% of primary energy mix by 2035 hence
availability of hydrogen from their fatal electricity production will be in the % scale

Evolution of world primary energy consumption

- Million tons of oil equivalent & % , 1965 to 2035 -
Mtoe

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035

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Oil Independence
Reducing the 97% oil dependence for transportation is critical as we will face an oil availability
constrain by 2020 following the lack of investment in oil E&P since the oil price collapse in 2014

World all liquids production & forecast

- Million barrels per day, 1900 to 2020 -
Production Mb/d

Source: Jean Laherrere, ASPO France, June 2016

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 PHEVs do not need an expensive fast charging infrastructure deployment,
can reduce oil consumption by as much as 80% and uses four times as less
supply-constrained cobalt than BEVs
Charging
Metal Highway Energy Oil
Affordability Infrastructure
Independence Range efficiency* Independence
Availability

Most cost Platine in 18%

More than Infrastructur 100%
ICE

competitive 5 catalytic 4 5 5 Gasoline 3 1 23

500 km e existing oil
alternative converters 22% Diesel

Fast charger
High cost of Lithium and
BEV

Up to 300 network & 100%

60kWh 3 cobalt for 60 2 3 2 20% 3 5 18
km local grid electric
battery kWh battery
upgrade

Lithium and
PHEV

20kWh More than Local grid 80% electric

4 cobalt for 20 3 5 4 20% 3 4 23
battery 500 km upgrade 20% oil
kWh battery

High cost of Platinum in Network of

FCEV

More than 100%

fuel cell 2 the fuel cell 2 5 hydrogen 1 8% 1 5 16
500 km electric
stack stack station

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis * Well to wheel

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Plug-in hybrids represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a
global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030

Internal Combustion Engine Plug-In Hybrids Electric Vehicle

Metal Metal
Independence Independence

Oil Independence Highway Range Oil Independence Highway Range

Charging Charging
Affordability Infrastructure Affordability Infrastructure
Availability Availability

Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency

Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

Metal Metal
Independence Independence

Oil Independence Highway Range Oil Independence Highway Range

Charging Charging
Affordability Infrastructure Affordability Infrastructure
Availability Availability

Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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What if the car of the future was not a car?

Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis

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What if the car of the future was not a car?

PodRide Tesla S
Technical PodRide vs.
Electric Autonomous
specifications Tesla S
bicycle-car electric tank

30 times
Weight 70 kg 2 100 kg
lighter

1.8 m x 0.75 m 5mx2m 7 times

Dimensions
1.35 m2 10m2 smaller

10 times more
Top speed 25 km/h 225 km/h
slowly

1000 times less

Power 250 W 235 kW
powerful

100 times
Battery capacity 0.7 kWh 70 kWh
smaller

7 times
Electric range 60 km 450 km
lower

25 times
Price 3,000 € 80,000 €
cheaper

Source: http://www.jmk-innovation.se/?lang=en

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Thank you for your attention!

Nicolas Meilhan
Principal Consultant
Energy & Transportation Practices
(+33) 1 42 81 23 24
nicolas .meilhan@frost.com

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