Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Chris Myers
crm17@cornell.edu
Clark 517 / Rhodes 626 / Plant Sci 321
• Books
- M. Keeling & P. Rohmani, Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and
Animals [K&R]; programs online at www.modelinginfectiousdiseases.org
- O. Diekmann & J.A.P. Heesterbeek, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious
Diseases [D&H]
- R.M. Anderson & R.M. May, Infectious Diseases of Humans [A&M]
- D.J. Daley & J. Gani, Epidemic Modeling: An Introduction [D&G]
- S. Ellner & J. Guckenheimer, Dynamic Models in Biology (Ch. 6) [E&G]
• Local activity
- EEID - Ecology and Evolution of Infections and Disease at Cornell
‣ website at www.eeid.cornell.edu, mailing list: EEID-L@cornell.edu
- 8th annual EEID conference: http://www.eeidconference.org/
‣ to be held at Cornell in early June 2010
• Same as before,
except two individuals
in “contact” if they
occupy the same
lattice site or are on
neighboring sites
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• BLUE = recovered
(and immune)
• Same as before,
except two individuals
in “contact” if they
occupy the same
lattice site or are on
neighboring sites
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• BLUE = recovered
(and immune)
• Same as original
simulation, except 40%
of the population has
been vaccinated
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• BLUE = recovered
(and immune)
• CYAN = vaccinated
(and immune)
• Same as original
simulation, except 40%
of the population has
been vaccinated
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• BLUE = recovered
(and immune)
• CYAN = vaccinated
(and immune)
• Same as last
simulation, with a
higher cull rate
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• GREY = culled (and
dead)
• Same as last
simulation, with a
higher cull rate
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• GREY = culled (and
dead)
• Two segregated
subpopulations, with a
small percentage of
mixers who flow freely
back and forth
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• BLUE = recovered
(and immune)
• Two segregated
subpopulations, with a
small percentage of
mixers who flow freely
back and forth
• RED = susceptible (not
infectious)
• YELLOW = infectious
• BLUE = recovered
(and immune)
- control strategies
- epidemiology
response
- public health & logistics
- economic impacts
- disease ecology
- demography
between hosts - vectors, water, etc.
- zoonoses
- weather & climate
transmission
SIS: no immunity S I
C
SIR with carrier state S I
R
adapted from K&R
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
An aside on graphical notations
state transitions
S I R influence
1 − δq = (1 − c) (κY /N )δt
S I R
infection recovery
dS/dt = −βSI
γ= 1.0
dI/dt = βSI − γI
dR/dt = γI
infection recovery
dI/dt = I(β − γ)
dS/dt = −βSI
> 0 if β/γ > 1 (grows)
dI/dt = βSI − γI
< 0 if β/γ < 1 (dies out)
dR/dt = γI
dS/dτ = −R0 SI
• define basic reproductive ratio:
dI/dτ = R0 SI − I
R0 = β/γ dR/dτ = I
τ = γt
= average number of secondary cases
arising from an average primary case
in an entirely susceptible population
• epidemic threshold at R0 = 1
R0 = β/γ
= average number of secondary cases arising from an average primary
case in an entirely susceptible population
≈ transmission rate / recovery rate
• epidemic threshold at R0 = 1
- fraction of susceptibles must exceed γ/β
- R0-1 [relative removal (recovery) rate] must be small enough
to allow disease to spread
infection recovery
• solve this equation (numerically) for R(∞) = total proportion of population infected
initial slope
= R0
R0 = 2
β
R0 = death death death
γ+µ
dS/dt = µ − βSI − µS
dI/dt = βSI − γI − µI
dR/dt = γI − µR
infection recovery
I = 0 or dS/dt = µ − βSI − µS
S = (γ + µ)/β = 1/R0 dI/dt = βSI − γI − µI
dR/dt = γI − µR
• Disease-free equilibrium
(S ∗ , I ∗ , R∗ ) = (1, 0, 0)
• Endemic equilibrium (only possible for R0>1):
1 µ 1 µ
(S , I , R ) = ( , (R0 − 1), 1 −
∗ ∗ ∗
− (R0 − 1))
R0 β R0 β
R0 = 5