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Abstract—Application of genetic algorithm to the formation As shown on Fig. 1 (graph e1 – training error, e2 –
of the optimal structure of fuzzy neural networks used in the forecasting error) training error significantly decreases with the
short-term forecasting of power consumption is presented. decrease of clustering radius, but rule base and forecasting
error increase. Thus, rule base increased from 8 to 33 rules with
Keywords—genetic algorithm, fuzzy neural networks, decreasing radius twice.
electrical load forecast
At the same time with the decrease of clustering radius
The idea of genetic algorithms as a method of optimal (despite having increased accuracy of training) the FNN loses
solutions formation has originally appeared in the late 60s, input information compilation ability due to rules quantity
early 70s of the XX century. At the present times genetic increasing, i. e. forecasting error increases. Clustering radius
algorithms are applied in different research and practice areas value is defined empirically in each case.
such as optimization function, databases query optimization,
graphs problems, artificial neural network setup and training It can be hard to manually select data clustering radius,
tasks, tasks of composition. especially for systems with multiple inputs and outputs. And it
is necessary to automate the procedure to implement FNN re-
Let us consider genetic algorithm in context of formation training. Matlab built-in genetic algorithm (GA) is used to
fuzzy neural networks (FNN) optimal structure that is use in form the optimal FNN structure for this reason.
the short-term forecasting of power consumption.
Classical GA is consist of following steps: initialization, or
The FNN was generated using built-in function of MatLab initial chromosome population selection; evaluation of
genfis2. Dividing space of input and output data into sub chromosome adaptation in population; condition of the
domains, genfis2 function generates ANFIS-structure using algorithm stop checking; chromosome selection; genetic
subtractive algorithm [1]. In this function the parameter having algorithm applying; new population formation; «best»
the most influence on structure of FNN and quality of training chromosome selection [2].
and forecasting is clustering radius (or border of variable
influenced areas). It is necessary to determine genetic algorithm parameters,
namely:
Let us examine building and training ANFIS-system to
demonstrate the influence of this parameter on the quality of • initial population;
training with two inputs and one output. Forecasting results for • adaptation function;
different clustering radiuses are shown on Fig. 1.
• genetic operators (selection, crossover and mutation);
6
e1 • genetic algorithm stop criterion.
5 e2
The most important of the parameters from above is the
4 adaptation function, because it determines quality of work and
convergence of genetic algorithm. As an adaptation function
3 was selected criterion that determines the final prediction error
committee of FNN [3].
2 Generalized implementation block-diagramm of the
developed genetic algorithm is fully consistent with the
1 classical block-diagramm. The difference is a realization of
each step of genetic algorithm. Let’s consider these in details.
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1. Creating initial population. Population size selection
rad
substantially affects on performance and result of GA work. On
Fig. 1. Influence of clustering radius value on quality of training FNN and
Fig. 2 the time taken to search for the optimum is shown by the
forecasting dashed line, solid – the accuracy of the algorithm is shown by
solid line.
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retraining of network when forecasting parameters changes or
TABLE I. CLUSTERING RADIUS SELECTION MANUALLY AND WITH GA if forecasting error became unacceptable.
Forecasting Forecasting
Selection r
system error, % ACKNOWLEDGMENT
GA 0,56
FNN 1 This work was financially supported by a grant of the
Manual 0,60
GA 3,54 President of the Russian Federation № 14.Z56.14.3734-МК
FNN 2
Manual 4,70
GA 4,13
FNN 3 REFERENCES
Manual 5,28
GA 6,29 [1] Diakonov V. MATLAB. Signal and image proccessing. Special
FNN 4 reference / V. Diakonov, I. Abramenkova. SPb.: Piter, 2002. 608 p.
Manual 6,80
GA 1,68% [2] Rutkovskaia D. Neural networks, genetic algorithms and fuzzy systems
Overall forecast
Manual 2,12% [Text] / D. Rutkovskaia, M. Pilin’skii, L Rutkovskii; translate from
Polish I. D. Ruinskii. M.: Hot line Telekom, 2004. 452 p.
As shown in Table 1, with GA forecasting accuracy [3] Filatova E.S., Filatov D.M., Stotskaia A.D. Method for constructing
increased by 0.44 %. Moreover application of GA to automate forecasting system of power consumption based on fuzzy neuro
generation optimal structure FNN allows to realize fast approach and wavelet theory // International journal of applied and basic
researches. 2014. № 11. P. 26-29
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