Natural Gas

1
June, 2018
Natural Gas
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2
Natural Gas – Sector Assessment

Falling domestic gas production hit gas demand from price
sensitive users, particularly power
Trend in gas consumption in India Sector-wise share of total demand
(MMSCMD) Sector-wise % 160 MMSCMD
200 170 MMSCMD 152 MMSCMD
178 share
159 160 100%
147 152
48.17468 144 143 90% 20% 22% 20%
150 47 80% 4% 7%
70 70% 8% 6%
47 51 59 65 10% 12%
60% 12%
100 13% 15%
50%

130 40% 34% 21% 22%
50 111 97 30%
92 88 88 90
20%
10% 22% 28% 27%
0 0%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY2012 FY2017 FY2018 E
Domestic production LNG imports Fertilisers Power CGD Refinery Petrochemicals Others
Source: PPAC, MoPNG
Comparison of gas price from various sources

18 (USD/MMBTU)
15 15.4 13.7
12.2
10.9
12
9 11.3 7.0 7.5
6 7.4 7.4
6.6
3
3.8 4.3 3.7
0 2.8 2.7
FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018E
Domestic gas price Contracted LNG Price Spot LNG Price
3
Domestic gas prices to remain ~$3 mmbtu on global cues
Outlook on international gas hub prices Outlook on domestic gas price
($/MMBTU) ($/MMBTU)
10
5.0
4.3
8 3.8 3.8
4.0
6 2.7-3.1
2.8 2.6-2.9
3.0 2.7
4

2.0
2
1.0
0
2017 E
2018 F
2019 F
2020 F
2014
2015
2016
0.0
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019F FY2020F
Henry Hub NBP Alberta Russia domestic
Source: CRISIL Research estimates
• Domestic gas prices revised upward to $3.06/ Mmbtu in April 2018

 Prices fixed at $ 3.06/MMBtu for April, 2018 to September 2018 period; Next revision due in October 2018
 Increment on account of strong global prices owing to tight supply during the peak season across major international hubs
• Domestic gas prices expected to hover ~$3/Mmbtu in FY2019

 Gas price at NBP expected to remain on higher side considering no LNG glut situation in the region
 Henry Hub and Alberta expected to remain subdued due to over-supply
4
Strong LNG supply growth to put downward pressure on LNG
price
LNG liquefaction capacity additions outlook LNG Price outlook
(MTPA) 96.8 (USD/MMBTU)
100 16
13.7
80
12 10.9
57.6
60 11.3 7.8-8.5 7.6-8.2
7.8 7.0 7.5
8
8.9

40 32 7.4 7.0-7.5
9.9 16.5 7.4 7.0-7.4
6.6
1.2
4
20
30.5 26.7
0 0
2011-2015 Commissioned in 2016-17 2018-2021 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018E FY 2019F FY 2020F
Australia Africa APAC (excl.Australia) Europe S.America Middle east US Contracted LNG Price Spot LNG Price
• Commissioning of new LNG terminals in US and Australia to lead to a surge in LNG supply
 US and Australia expected to add combined capacity of around100 MMTPA in the next 4-5 years
 ~25-30 MTPA of capacity expected to get commissioned every year till FY21
• On the other hand, LNG demand from major importers expected to decline
 Demand from importers such as Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan expected to decline due to nuclear restarts, competition from coal
 While demand from China and India expected to rise, overall demand growth to lag supply additions, impacting prices
• Consequently, spot LNG prices expected to remain range bound over the next 2-3 years
 Increase in oil price in FY19 expected to increase the contracted LNG price; however oil price to remain low in medium term
5
Impact of government initiatives to revive gas production to be
visible only over the long-term
• Premium pricing permitted for new gas discoveries in difficult to produce fields
 Fields include High Pressure High Temperature, Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater areas with high production cost
 As per government estimates, higher gas price to increase viability of discoveries with reserves of 6.75 TCF, lead to a ~40%
upside to domestic gas production over the long term
 ONGC’s new KG basin fields one of the key beneficiaries of the premium pricing mechanism

• A new ‘Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP)’ for new oil & gas blocks
 Single license for exploration and production of conventional as well as unconventional hydrocarbons
 New fiscal regime to be based on revenue sharing, unlike cost recovery under the NELP mechanism
 Exemption from customs duty for machinery, plant, equipment and materials for petroleum operations
 Graded system of reduced royalty rates for offshore fields to incentivize offshore exploration
 Impact to be limited over the medium term given long development timelines for new blocks, limited player interest given
subdued pricing scenario
6
Domestic gas production to pick-up but remain significantly below
demand
Outlook on domestic gas production
(MMSCMD)
Allocation priority
150.0 -7.6% CAGR 3.4% CAGR
130
CNG & Dom. PNG
120.0 16
107
90
95 13 LPG
43 88 1
90.0 14 10
10 11

5 4
9 9 Fertiliser
7 8
60.0 8
Power
83
30.0 64 61 65 69
Refineries & Petchem
0.0
FY12 FY17 FY18 E FY19 F FY23F Others
ONGC OIL RIL KG D6 Others
• Premium pricing, other policy initiatives to aid rebound in domestic gas output; however, pace of growth to be subdued
• Impact of the new exploration policy (HELP) on domestic production expected to be visible only post FY 2021
• Production growth over the next 5 years to be led by ONGC’s western offshore fields, KG basin and rising CBM output
• Development of ONGC’s and RIL’s deep-water projects in KG basin critical for production growth in the long term
7
ONGC’s production to rise at 5% CAGR, led by commissioning of
major new fields in Eastern and Western offshore
Outlook on ONGC Gas production Key recently commissioned/upcoming ONGC fields
(MMSCMD)
90 -1.1% 5.4% Project name Peak production Commencement
CAGR CAGR
In phased manner from
31 Daman 8.0
0 FY 2017
60 6 11
Vashitha+S1 (EOA-DW) 4.7 FY 2019

30 64

55 54 52 South Bassein 5.0 FY 2018
KG-DWN-98/2 16 FY 2021
0
FY2012 FY2017 FY2018 E FY2023 F
Deendayal West 5 FY 2020
Existing New fields
Source: CRISIL Research estimates, Company reports
 Production from existing fields to decline at a CAGR of 3% over the next 5 years, given natural decline
 However, commissioning of a few major projects to more than offset decline from existing fields
 Production from Daman and South Bassein fields to partially commenced in FY 17 and FY 18 respectively
 Commissioning of its KG Basin block to increase production from FY21 onwards, peak ~production capacity is ~16 mmscmd
 Expected commissioning from Deendayal block to add to production from the Eastern Offshore Area
 Implementation of premium gas pricing formula expected to support development of the fields in tough terrain
8
Delay in development of new fields to hit production from RIL’s KG
Basin block
Outlook on KG D6 Gas production Major RIL projects
(MMSCMD) -27% -26% Production
50.0 Field name Status
CAGR CAGR (MMSCMD)
40.0
Satellite ( D-2,6,19,22) OFDP approved in Jan 2012 10.36
30.0
R Series ( D- 29,30,31,34) FDP approved in 2013 20

20.0 43.0
10.0 D-34 DOC approved in Feb 12 15

8.8 5.5
0.0 1.4
FY2012 FY2017 FY2018 E FY2023 F NEC-25 (D-32,40,9,10) FDP submitted in early 2013
RIL KG D6
Source: CRISIL Research estimates and Company reports
• Significant decline in KG D6 output production expected in the future

 Production from existing fields (D1, D3 and MA ) in KG-DWN-98/3 (KG D6) block to fall to ~1 MMSCMD over next 5 years
• Moreover, new fields not expected to commence production over the forecast period given limited
progress
 Despite approval of field development plans, limited development so far given multiple arbitration cases
 Given limited progress, we have not factored new production from these fields over the forecast period.
9
New CBM fields to drive production growth from non-ONGC/RIL
fields
CBM and others production outlook Key CBM fields
(MMSCMD)
20.0 Peak production
-8.6% 3.7% Project name Commencement
CAGR CAGR (MMSCMD)
16.0
12.0
GEECL - Raniganj 1.1 Existing
5.7

8.0 16.0
8.0 ESSAR - Raniganj 3.0 2016
8.8
4.0 7.1
1.5 2.8
0.0 0.2 Reliance - Sohagpur 3.0 2018
FY2012 FY2017 FY2018 E FY2023 F
CBM Others
Source: CRISIL Research estimates and Company reports
• Significant production ramp-up expected from the recently commissioned Essar’s Raniganj block
 Production, which ramped up to 1 MMSCMD in FY 2016, expected to increase to reach 3 MMSCMD by 2020
 GAIL has offered ~$7/mmbtu for offtaking 2.3 mmscmd of gas; auction bid opened in Feb, 2018
• Moreover, RIL’s Sohagpur CBM block started commercial productions in FY2018

 Peak production from both blocks expected at 3.5 MMSCMD with initial rates pegged at 1 MMSCMD
 Production not as expected; wells under-performed in FY2018
10
Gas demand to rise, driven primarily by Fertiliser and CGD sectors
Overall gas demand outlook Sector-wise share of total demand
(MMSCMD) Sector-wise %
250 share
-3.2% CAGR 4.1% CAGR 100%
200 22% 22% 18%
80% 5%
6% 6% 10%
150 10% 11%
60% 16%
13% 14%
100 194 40% 21%

179 21% 21%
152 160
50 20%
28% 27% 29%
0%
0
FY17 FY18 E FY23 F
FY12 FY17 FY18E FY23F
Fertilisers Power CGD Refinery Petrochemicals Others
Source: PPAC, MoPNG
• Conversion of naphtha based units, revival of existing units & capacity additions under New Urea Investment Policy to drive
demand from the fertilizer
• Subdued demand growth anticipated from power sector, given weak cost competiveness of LNG and withdrawal of LNG subsidy
scheme; however, expected to improve slightly from FY20 onwards due to new domestic supply
• Expansion in CNG and domestic PNG sectors to drive demand growth from the CGD sector
 Ban of polluting fuels in northern States along with addition of new areas under CGD infrastructure to get reflected in higher growth of the sector
• Demand from petrochemical to witness drop in FY20 onwards after a sharp increase in FY17-FY19 due to feedstock substitution
11
Capacity expansion & revival under New Urea Investment Policy to
drive gas consumption in fertilizer sector
Gas consumption in fertilizer sector Major upcoming gas based urea plants
(MMSCMD) Capacity
60.0 1.7% CAGR 4.6% CAGR 56.7 Type Plant State
MTPA
Conversion MCFL-Mangalore Karnataka 0.4
42.3 42.9
38.8 27.4 Conversion SPIC-Tuticorin Tamil Nadu 0.6
40.0
7.9 Conversion MFL-Manali Tamil Nadu 0.5

20.8 23.6
Greenfield/
CFCL - Gadepan Rajasthan 1.3
20.0 Expansion
30.9 29.3 Greenfield/
21.5 19.3 RCF - Thal Maharashtra 1.2
Expansion
0.0 Greenfield/
GSFC - Dahej Gujarat 1.2
FY12 FY17 FY18E FY23F Expansion
Domestic LNG
Total 5.2
Source: CRISIL Research estimates and Company Reports
• Conversion of naphtha based units, capacity additions under New Urea Investment Policy to drive 4% gas demand
growth
• Fuel cost pass-through, price pooling policy to ensure LNG affordability by urea plants
• Conversion of remaining naphtha based plants expected given expansion of gas infrastructure in Southern regions
• Moreover, commissioning of the Jagdishpur-Haldia pipeline to aid revival of plants in East from FY20 onwards
• Ramagundam plant in Telangana expected to revive from FY20-21 as new supply of gas from ONGC fields expected
12
Lower cost of power from alternative sources to limit LNG use in
power
Variable cost comparison for various fuels in FY2017 Cost type Unit Value
(₹./kwh)
5.0
4.1
LNG price incl. transportation tariff USD/ MMBTU 7.50-8.70
4.0
SHR Kcal/unit 1800
3.0
2.2

2.0 1.8 Fixed Cost Rs. /Unit 1.20-1.50
1.2
1.0 Variable cost Rs. /Unit ~3.50-4.50
0.0
Domestic Imported Domestic LNG Total Cost Rs. /Unit ~4.70-5.70
Coal Natural Gas
Source: CRISIL Research
• Impediments for gas based plants:

• Utility scale solar power tariff is going below Rs. 3.0/unit
• Cost of power from gas based power plant ranges ~ Rs.
4.7/unit- Rs. 5.7/unit, which is high in comparison of coal & • Have advantage of “Must Run plants”
renewable
• Power cost at exchange is between Rs 2.50-3.50/unit
13
Constrained domestic gas supply, weak affordability of LNG to
impact gas demand growth from power sector
Gas consumption in power sector
(MMSCMD)
80.0
-12.4% CAGR 4.3% CAGR
61.6
60.0
7.3

40.9
40.0
31.8 33.5 9.1
6.8 7.4
54.2
20.0
31.8
25.0 26.1
0.0
Domestic LNG
• Withdrawing of LNG subsidy scheme to greatly impact gas demand from power sector in the shorter term
 Consumption of LNG has been consistently lower than that offered at auction
 Power off take constraints from DISCOMs major issue for lower LNG consumption, particularly in Maharashtra & Gujarat
 Consequently the plants have operated significantly below the target PLF levels
• However, the gas consumption from the power sector can rebound contingent a change in the government policy
towards the gas usage in the power plants & improved domestic gas supply
14
Improving cost competitiveness of gas versus alternate fuels to
boost volumes in CGD sector
Cost competitiveness of CNG v/s gasoline Cost competitiveness of PNG v/s LPG
(₹ KM) 18.0
6.00
5.00 15.0
4.71
4.41
4.00 12.0
3.10 3.32
2.64 2.87
2.19 2.42 0.83 9.0 17.0
0.83 0.83
0.83 15.0 14.9
2.00 0.83

0.83 6.0 12.2 11.3 12.3 11.5
2.49 10.9 10.8 10.9 10.8
2.04 2.26 9.5
1.36 1.58 1.81
3.0
0.00
CNG @ RS.30 CNG @ RS.40 CNG @ RS.50 PETROL @ PETROL @ 0.0
RS. 75 RS. 85 FY 2017 FY 2018 (E) FY 2019 (F) FY 2020 (F)
Fuel cost Conversion cost Dom. PNG Sub. LPG Unsub. LPG
Cost competitiveness of gas v/s industrial fuels
18.0 ($/mmbtu)
15.0
12.0
9.0
15.3 15.2
6.0 11.9 11.8 12.3 12.0 12.6 11.9
9.7 10.4 10.5
8.8
3.0
0.0
FY 2017 FY 2018 (E) FY 2020 (E)
Industrial PNG FO LSHS Bulk LPG
Crude price of $55-65 per bbl
15
Expanding network coverage, rising cost competitiveness to
boost gas demand from CGD
Gas consumption in CGD sector Planned expansion in CGD network
(MMSCMD) Authorization
-1.4 7.7% Year of Authorization No. of GAs
40.0 CAGR CAGR Round
31.1 Govt. Nomination Pre-2007 35

30.0
22.5 13.1 Round 1 – 4 2009-2013 25
21.4
20.0

20.0 Existing - 60
9.8
10.4 8.2
Round 5 & 6 2015 54
10.0 18.0
11.1 11.7 12.7 1 for Round-7, authorization
Round 7 & 8 2016-2017
pending for Round-8
0.0
Upcoming rounds - 146
Domestic LNG
Source: CRISIL Research estimates Source: PNGRB
• Expanding geographical coverage, improving cost competitiveness of gas to drive growth in CGD demand
• Assured domestic gas supply to aid competitiveness, drive gas demand (~10% CAGR) for CNG & domestic
PNG
• Ban on polluting fuel in northern States and expected expansion to other States to push the demand upward
16
Demand from petrochemical and refineries to remain subdued
given substitution by alternate fuels
Gas consumption in Petrochemical sector Gas consumption in Refinery sector
(MMSCMD) 19.8
15.0 6.1% -0.1% 20.0 1.3% 5.2%
(MMSCMD) 18.1
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
14.7
10.4 15.0 13.8
10.0 9.5 9.5
7.1 18.5
10.0

16.8
8.6 10.2
7.8 7.7 13.3
5.0 4.7
5.0
2.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.5

0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.3
FY12 FY17 FY18E FY23F FY12 FY17 FY18E FY23F
Domestic LNG Domestic LNG
• Gas demand from petchem plants to be subdued despite capacity additions, given substitution by ethane in RIL’s plants
 GAIL’s Pata expansion, commissioning of OPAL & BCPL plants to drive gas based petchem gas capacity
 Despite this, demand growth to be subdued given RIL’s shift to imported ethane as feedstock in its petrochem plants
• Gas consumption in refinery to improve in medium term:
 Gas consumption in YTD witnessed growth of over 20% from FY17, given replacement of FO/Naphtha in internal consumption coupled
with FO ban in northern States
 However, demand will be supported by OMC’s increased LNG usage, given falling prices and improving connectivity
17
Sector-wise LNG potential: Fertilizer, Refineries & petrochem key
target LNG customers; Power, segments unattractive
Priority in domestic gas supply LNG Affordability Potential LNG demand

Dom.PNG
CNG &
High: 100% demand met through domestic High: Given significant savings compared
gas to alternate fuels such as Petrol, LPG

Fertiliser
Medium: Second, after CNG & Domestic High: Price pooling, fuel cost pass-through
PNG segments permit 100% LNG usage
Low: Weak discom financials, Low cost of

Power
Medium: Third, after CNG & Domestic PNG,

coal/renewables; however, subsidy
Fertiliser sectors
support has aided affordability
Refining &
Petchem
Low: No incremental supply expected. High: Primary competition from naphtha,

Existing supply diverted to core sectors which is expensive than LNG
Industries
CGD -
Small
Low: No incremental supply expected. Medium: Competition from furnace oil,

Existing supply diverted to core sectors which has comparatively priced to LNG
18
Upcoming LNG import and Pipeline infrastructure concentrated in
the South and East

19
Utilisation rates to come under pressure as regasification capacity
additions outpace LNG demand growth
Outlook on LNG share in gas consumption Outlook on utilisation of regasification terminals
(MMSCMD) (%) (MTPA) 71% (%)
250 45% 50% 60 72% 74% 80%
42% 44%
70%
50
200 40%
50% 60%
27% 40
150 48.17468 87 30% 50%
70 30 40%

65
100 20% 48-48 30%
20
130 20%
50 107 10% 27 27 23-25
88 90 10 20 19
14 10%
10
0 0% 0 0%
FY12 FY17 FY18E FY23F FY2011 FY2017 FY2018E FY2023F
Domestic production LNG Share of LNG Capacity (Year-end) LNG imports Avg. Utilisation
• LNG regasification capacity to rise to 42-48 MTPA with commissioning of new facilities and capacity expansion at existing plants
 Petronet’s Dahej terminal to expand capacity by 2.5 MTPA to 17.5 MTPA by Q1 of FY2019
 Additional capacity already under-construction at Mundra and Ennore, expected to come online prior to 2020
 New terminals expected at Jafrabad & Chhahra under planning stage, commissioning expected to spillover post 2020
• Given such strong pace of capacity additions, average utilization rates expected to remain ~ 50% over the medium term
 Terminals such as Petronet’s Dahej terminal, which has tied-up most of its capacity to witness healthy utilization rates
 However, new terminals without capacity tie-ups, anchor customers to operate at low utilization rates, impacting returns
20
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Comparison of gas price from various sources

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Domestic gas prices revised upward to $3.06/ Mmbtu in April 2018

• Domestic gas prices expected to hover ~$3/Mmbtu in FY2019

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vashitha+S1 (EOA-DW) 4.7 FY 2019

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

R Series ( D- 29,30,31,34) FDP approved in 2013 20

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

10.0 D-34 DOC approved in Feb 12 15

• Significant decline in KG D6 output production expected in the future

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Moreover, RIL’s Sohagpur CBM block started commercial productions in FY2018

 Production not as expected; wells under-performed in FY2018

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

Source: CRISIL Research

• Impediments for gas based plants:

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost competitiveness of gas v/s industrial fuels

31.1 Govt. Nomination Pre-2007 35

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2.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.5

Priority in domestic gas supply LNG Affordability Potential LNG demand

© 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low: Weak discom financials, Low cost of

Medium: Third, after CNG & Domestic PNG,

Low: No incremental supply expected. High: Primary competition from naphtha,

Low: No incremental supply expected. Medium: Competition from furnace oil,

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