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UltraPoll - Manitoba
Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
1st August 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all
a survey conducted between July 15th to 17th, three levels of government, President and CEO
2018 among a sample of 896 adults, 18 years Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey international public affairs.
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
interviews on both landlines and cellular Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a national telephone directory compiled by a Liberal majority government in the 2015
Mainstreet Research from various sources and federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
random digit dialing. The part of the survey predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
that dialed from the directory was conducted elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
as a stratified dial of the following regions; special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
Winnipeg and the rest of Manitoba. In the a member of the World Association for Public
case of random digit dials, respondents were Opinion Research and meets international and
asked the additional question of what region Canadian publication standards.
of the province they resided in.
CONTACT INFORMATION
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Ottawa:
Research and was not sponsored by a third Quito Maggi, President
party. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
“Opinion has not shifted much from when we last polled Manitoba in April,” said
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The PCs still hold a
big lead over the NDP and while the Liberals will be buoyed by the fact their
leader Dougald Lamont has just won a seat in the Legislature, they remain a
distant third.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 44.9% (-0.7% from our
previous April release), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 29.3%
support (-0.9%). The Liberals with Lamont at the helm currently enjoy 13.6%
(+0.6%), and the Greens with James Bedomme as leader have 8.7% (+0.9%).
The PCs lead among both women and men and all age groups, including a nearly
25% lead among respondents older than 65. The PCs also lead in Winnipeg and
in the interior of Manitoba, but their lead over the NDP in Winnipeg is only three
points.
-30-
14.5%
2.9%
40.2%
7.6%
All Voters
10.8%
oters
ded and Leaning Voters
24.0%
14.5% 3.4%
Progressive Conservatives 8.7%
NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided
2.9%
13.6% 40.2%
7.6%
44.9%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
10.8%
29.3%
24.0%
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of two regions in Manitoba: Winnipeg
and the rest of Manitoba. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the
additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents
were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.27% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.57%, Females: +/-
4.69%, 18-34 age group: +/- 8.69%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8.25%, 50-64 age group: +/-
6.56%, 65+ age group: +/- 5.42%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.75%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 4.92%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.