Capítulo 2



2.1 Espacio muestral

   í  á ó
óresultados fortuitos 
óíú
ó
óáí
í
óíí
óáí
ádatos categóricosí
ú
 óéó
observacióníúú
ñ
ó
ó
íí

 íexperimento
í
ó
í
óí
é

óí
á
íáá
  

á

  

áóí
éí
 
 
áincertidumbreó
ó
ó
ó
óó
ó
 
óí
óó
óíé

éá
 
 í
espacio muestralí

elementomiembro
punto muestral
ú


 


Ejemplo 2.1: ú

í

óú
 
á
á
óáá

óé
éó
ú
ádiagrama de árbol

Ejemplo 2.2: é


ó
á
á



  

 á

á

       
       í      


á
í

Ejemplo 2.3: óí

í

óá
á

íé
á
 =
 ú
enunciado  regla

óáó
óáó

óáó
 í
regla
 
  

 á

 é
áíóé
á

 óí
óá
 í        
   í       í  
í
í
í
   

2.2 Eventos
    
eventos áí
á
Éá

óúí
á



 ó


  

 
 evento

Ejemplo 2.4:  ñ

ó
ñ 
             
conjunto vacío
í 
ó
ó é



íú
ú
 á
ñíí


é


 
 complemento
á
í 

Ejemplo 2.5: 

 


Ejemplo 2.6: 



 
 á
óá



ú
ú


á
intersección

 
 interseccióní 

  

Ejemplo 2.7: é

 
é

Ejemplo 2.8:   


á
íñ
á
mutuamente excluyentesá
ó

 
 mutuamenteexcluyentesdisjuntos  
ú

Ejemplo 2.9: ñí ó

á
 

 
ó
áú
ó 

 
í



 
óá


 
 unión í 


Ejemplo 2.10:   

Ejemplo 2.11: ñí


ó 


Ejemplo 2.12: 

  

ó
ádiagramas de Venn
  

 

áí
á
  
  
  
   
   ó
    
í
é
 
  
    ó 


  
  
  
  ó
 

1.   
2.   
3.   
4.   
5.   
6. 
7.   
8      
9.      
  

 

Ejercicios

           
   é      
ú   á      
 
        
 
 ó
           

 
 
 é í
 
í 
 
ú
 á
  
 ú 

  
ú 
 

  ú
ú  

 

 


é

   
é        ú  
ú 
ó ú
 
é 
 

  áóá
  
ó
  

 
í 
í 
 

  

        
í 
        
ó

   
 óá
         
 
 í 
     í     
      í  
         
        
 
ó
  
 é   ó      
       ó   
    
    
       é  
  
óí

 
 ó

í

  
 
  
ú
   
     
    
   
      

  

   
óóí-
á   
    

í  
á   
áá á
  

   
   
    ó
ó
 á 


      ú   



 é
ó  ú 
 

  á á
        ñ     á   á  á
í á
ú   á   á
       
    á    
  óá

á  á        
áá
á    ó     áá
áá óá
éé á

 

2.3 Conteo de puntos muestrales

í


áó
ú

regla de multiplicación
  

Teorema 2.1: óé

ó


Ejemplo 2.13: á


 
 
é


 

 á

Ejemplo 2.14: ó

óú
á

 
 
 
ó
á
  

íá
éá
á


ó
ú
é
ó


éregla de multiplicación generalizada


Teorema 2.2: óé

ó
óí
    

Ejemplo 2.15:  íó


á

 
 





Ejemplo 2.16: áúíí

íó
 
 úóó
úíó
ó
ó
óó
ó



úíó
ó
óó
ó



úí
 íú
úí
  


             
á
á
í
permutaciones


 ó




óé
óóúó


    

í
ó
é

Teorema 2.3: ú

úá
ú
Éí

é

             


    +

í



Teorema 2.4: ú

  

Ejemplo 2.17: ñáóñ

í
áá
í
 
     ó
ú

Ejemplo 2.18: 

á
  
  áóé
  áá
  á
 
 ) ú

 
 íói. 
ii.
ú
ú

  
 úú
ú
ó
  ú
ú
ú
ú
éú
ú
éó
ó

 íper-
mutaciones circulares
é
ó

óóó
ó

  

Teorema 2.5:  ú          í 


í


ó


  ó
 


Teorema 2.6: ú

     é

Ejemplo 2.19:       ú     

ñññ
ñá
ó
 
 ú

 ú  

celdasó
óí 
ó






 úóó

úúú
ú
á
  

Teorema 2.7: ú

í

  

Ejemplo 2.20: á

ó
 
 úí

ú
combinaciones
óó
ú


ú

Teorema 2.8: ú

Ejemplo 2.21: ñá

óáá
á
 
 ú

ú

ó

 

Ejemplo 2.22: á


 
       ó      


í 


Ejercicios

      ó   

é  
íá
  
ó ó
ñó
 é 

    í  á
   é
óí         
ú í
 áó
á
         
éé
áá  ó

  
 í
ññúñúñ 
éé   
ú á

  á     
         
á 

á  óú
í 
ó
 ó á  
 
ñ á
 ñ    
        

á   á
  

á

  

 á   á      
óíú 
ííí 
ú
úí    ú      
    ú á            
íóí íú
áó
  á
ú       í   
í          
éá ú
        ó  
íú 
á
 áá
  í
ñá
  áí
 

  áúí
   í            á
íó 
áú
 á
á í
á
 áñ 
ñ
 ú
        á
á 
 

  
ó

á
 
 í
 á
   ñ   ñ   ú
   é   


ú

 á
 ñ
 

2.4 Probabilidad de un evento

á
í
áó
á

íí
áá
  

í
óóí
ó
íá
 é
á 
ú
ííá
ñ
ó
óú
ó
 íó
ú
íú
úpesosprobabilidades

ó

í





 



 
 

          
á ,    

       

Ejemplo 2.23: á


 
 



áá
 
  

  

Ejemplo 2.24: áú

ú

 
 
úú

ú

Ejemplo 2.25: ú

ú  
 
 
  
úú


 


óú
ú

Teorema 2.9: 




Ejemplo 2.26:    í        í
 á é 

     í    
íé
 
 í
áéú


  
 í
í
  

  í
é

Ejemplo 2.27: ó


 
 ú

ú

ó
úó



ó

 

á
ú
ófrecuencia rela-
tiva í

 é
ñ
íé


í
ó
éó
ó
óósubjetiva

 íó

íáfrecuencia
  

relativa limitante
  í          
        
ó

ó


2.5 Reglas aditivas

áú

óó
úó
á
regla aditiva

Teorema 2.10: 

      

    

 í  
á
 
  
 

 

Corolario 2.1: 

    

 
     

  

Corolario 2.2:      

 ó    
partición       


Corolario 2.3:     ó

 íá

Teorema 2.11:  

Ejemplo 2.28: í

éñí
éú
ñíñí

ñíáá
ñí
 
 

Ejemplo 2.29: á


 
 
ó
 
 


éíú
 
  

   í 

óó

ú
á      




Ejemplo 2.30: ó

á
ó

 
 
ó


 áí
éú
  é
 ó

Teorema 2.12:  

     

Ejemplo 2.31: áé

áíí
áéí
í
 
 óí 
              ó  




Ejemplo 2.32: 

í
ñ

 

í
í
ó

  á
  á
í
 
 
ñ
 
 

Ejercicios

           
 
ó-          á
í 
    
 é       
ñ 

  úñ
á 
        
ó
 ó
ó
       

á
 
 
ó
 
á ó
 
 

       
  
  

  ó

 
á 

é

  
á
 á 
ó
á
        
    á   
á
       á 
á





á



 é
 á-


éú
       
éúé áí

    ó á  
á é
 éá
 á
ó 
á á       
áé 

á
á
á


á
  
ó 
 í   á 
í
  
    í   ñ 
úí  

 
  ó 

á é
 
á áé

 

á
éóí


           
  é
á ó       
    á   
 á
 
 

á  é

 í-
á éó
 
á
 ó       é 
          áá
í é
      
     é   
 
á    á
 
á
  ú
 á

á áé
   á     
 í      
 á 
 áá
 
 
í
        
á ááé
 
 áá
  á
ñ
ó  ó
 
    é
    ó

    ó
    
    á        
         
 á
á         

 íó
á        í
 
á        
        
á        
 á
ó
 óá-         
 
é
áá       
óáá ó  
á       á á 
ó á
á       á á   í  ó é 
ó 
  

 
á 

 

á      

2.6 Probabilidad condicional

óú
probabilidad condicional    í
  ó

 
ú
ú
ú

ú

ó


úú
 ó
óí 
 í


ó
 é

            





 
  


 ó
óñ
  

 í          ó

Clasificación de los adultos en una ciudad pequeña

 áé
í

  
  


ú
ó

 






Ejemplo 2.33: 


 
óóóó

 
  óó
  

  óó


 óá
     

é

  
  
  


  

independientes
 ó
ó
ó ó
 ó

óóó
á  
ó
áá
óá  

         

ó

Ejemplo 2.34: 

é
í
ú
óóó

ó
óá
áé
 
 

         

  

íá
éá

         ó
ó  

Eventos independientes
ó
é
independencia 
  

ó


í

íá
í

 
 independientes ó

 depen-
dientes

 ó    

ó  
é  

2.7 Reglas multiplicativas

óó re-
gla multiplicativa 


Teorema 2.13: 

 í

  

   

é

éá

Ejemplo 2.35: 

á
éá
é
 
 é
é 
é



Ejemplo 2.36: 


á

 
 ó
ó
  


 

óú    
   
 

Teorema 2.14: ó




Ejemplo 2.37: ñ

é
  

 á

é

é

 
 é


Ejemplo 2.38: é



é




 é

 
 ó


  

  


      á      

  

Teorema 2.15:      

    

Ejemplo 2.39: 

  


 
 
  
  
  
 

í
 

Ejemplo 2.40: 

á

 
 

          


á  




    

     



     



Ejercicios

  

             

  ó
   ó    á   
    ú
   No Fumadores Fumadores
fumadores moderados empedernidos
    í         
ñúñ
           
   ñ   ú ñ    
 
 
á 
éúñ ó

 
óó 
Educación Hombre Mujer ó
       ú ñ     
    á
    í    á   
 áíá
 í
                  
ó 
  

í 
 
óí 
á 

   

 é
      
 á
 
 
á á
ó
 
á
      í  

   íá

  
 íáá
 
Hombre Mujer Total         
     íá
ííá
 ó   

    
í
     íá
     
    
é
á        
 á
á ñí
 é
ñí
      á  
        
á í
 ó

 ó á
é   ó      
          

        
á ñ
 
  ñ      
á 

óñ
á
  

ó
           á
 ñ
 á
 
 

 í 

ó 
á       
á 
í
  í       ú
 

    ó    
í    ó      
    
 
 é
 
éó
á á

        
á ó

á í       
 

áá
á

óá
  óá
 
íé
  é
áé á
         

á
é
 
       
 ñá 
          ñ
á    á
áñ 
á á

        
  ó
 á
 
  

2.8 Regla de Bayes

óó
ñí

ó


ó
   í    
á

  

 ó


á
 
   

óó

teorema de probabilidad totalregla de eliminación
  

 ááó
á

Teorema 2.16:     ó

      

  
ó



á

Ejemplo 2.41: á


á
  

 ó

á
é
 
 
  á
  áá
  áá
  áá

 ó

á


í

  ó
   
ó
áá
á
regla deBayes
  

 á

Teorema 2.17: Regla de Bayes    ó

      
  

  ó



ó

Ejemplo 2.42:  á

áéá
 
 

é
  

ó
á

Ejemplo 2.43: íñ

í




  
áá
ó
 
 ó

   






á

 éíé
í
óé

Ejercicios

 óí   

 
ñá 
     
á á
 
 á
á  éá
á 
á
 íí
    
 
 

 á          óí
 ñ

       
á  í       íá
íí
          
 ó

 

            
                
í   
á    

  
  ñí ó    
  ó é          í é 
ñú          
ó ó
ó
           
    á
    
é    á
 áé
     
          
á á
ó á

Ejercicios de repaso

         


ó

ó

ó
á  

      ó 
           á
ó
       


áó
áó
áó

   á     

éúá

ó
é
é

 ó

    
            
é

 
ó



ññ
ññ

  

  

 
           í

 é
í í
        á 
 
á
   
ó
í    
ó   
í     
  
        
 á        
é         

 
 
          á
é ñí
áñí
 
óóá  
  ó  ó  
 ó
ó 
ó
ó
 áú 

   ó       áá
ñé 
 é
ñá 

óñ
 ó
ó
     í
á        
 á        

           á
 á
 
á
  áñ
á
é 
ó
  
á        
      
 
áñ
       ó ó 
íéíá á
óí 
 

        í

ó     

        
 í
é ó
  ó       
á ó
óó
á    
         


á óá
 é
á
  
íí
   ñ   ó     
 
  é    
     ó
         á      í
   

    ó   
 
á
  á  
é

ó
ó
  ñí      
 ñí      ñí 
     á   
 áá
 ñáó
 
é          Sindica- No sindi-
 lizado calizado
ó
  é í Sigue en la misma compañía  
 Está en otra compañía
 (en la misma área)  
Está en una nueva área   
Está desempleado   
 
í 
      
 á        ñíáá
á 
íá 
íí 
á
áé é
 ñ
íá  
é 
   í     
 á 
éá íá
  é í
 á
ó 
  á     í 
á  á
áí        ñ  
á é