Reason vs Faith: Julian Simon vs Paul Ehrlich

by Joseph Kellard (April 26, 1998)

In 1980, Julian Simon, the recently deceased economist and author of The Ultimate
Resource, offered to environmentalists a wager based on his assertion that the price of
any raw material would indefinitely decline on a future date. The wager was taken up by
Paul Ehrlich, author of the best- selling 1968 book, "The Population Bomb," which
predicted that during the 1970s "the world will undergo famines -- hundreds of millions
of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon
now." These predicted deaths were off by hundreds of millions.

"In October 1980, Ehrilch and Simon drew up a futures contract obligating Simon to sell
Ehrlich the same quantities which could be purchased for $1,000 of five metals (copper,
chrome, nickel, tin, and tungsten) ten years later as 1980 prices," writes Ronald Bailey
in his book EcoScam. "If the combined prices rose above $1,000, Simon would pay the
difference. If they fell below $1,000, Ehrlich
would pay Simon. Ehrlich mailed Simon a
While Simon was proven correct, Ehrlich
check for $576.07 in October 1990." During
went on to win a MacArthur Foundation
the 1980s the combined prices of the metals
"genius" grant -- based on his career of
selected by Ehrlich declined by over 50
fantastic apocalyptic predictions that never
percent. Simon easily won because he knew came true.
that the supply for resources was not
becoming more scarce but more abundant,
since the economic history of predominantly free capitalist nations had demonstrated
how the prices of most major commodities have declined over time.

While Simon was proven correct, Ehrlich went on to win a MacArthur Foundation
"genius" grant -- based on his career of fantastic apocalyptic predictions that never
came true. In 1990, Ehrlich and his wife shamelessly published "The Population
Explosion," another book predicting that "human numbers are on a collision course with
massive famines." Simon's work has influenced people to challenge the corruptions of
such environmentalist doomsayers; nevertheless, the rehashed, dispelled arguments of
Ehrlich and his ilk prevail in many American minds. How can this happen?

Environmentalist doomsayers are a logical The explanation can be partly attributed to the
outgrowth of religious apocalyptics, and their
reversion in our culture to various forms of
believers are just another sect of mystics.supernaturalism. Increasingly people are
professing faith not only in God but in New Age
mystics, psychics, faith healers, astrologers. That is, our culture is increasingly
dispensing with objective reality and reason, for faith in alleged supernatural,
paranormal phenomena, i.e., in the absurd. And, at root, environmentalism is a pseudo-
science that must therefore engender faith. "Americans of all faiths increasingly are
looking at the environment through a spiritual lens," reports Caryle Murphy of the
Washington Post. "For them, 'care for creation' is much more than preserving wildlife
and pristine scenery. It is a religious mandate." (Washington Post 2/8/97) Ultimately,
then, environmentalist doomsayers are a logical outgrowth of religious apocalyptics, and
their believers are just another sect of mystics.