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𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟏
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝑆𝑜𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒- 𝐻𝑎𝑦𝑎 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 − 𝑄𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟐
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝐴 𝑙𝑜 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑜-𝐴 𝑙𝑜 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑜 − 𝐴 𝑙𝑜 𝑚𝑎𝑠-𝐴𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑦𝑜𝑟 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜-𝐴𝑙𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑜-
𝐴𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑦𝑜𝑟 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 − 𝑁𝑜 𝑚𝑎𝑠 − 𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑜 − 𝑁𝑜 𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑒.
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑎
𝑎. 𝑇𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝐴𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑑𝑎𝑠(𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑜 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑)
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑏
𝑏. 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐴𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟑
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝑀𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 − 𝑀𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑟 − 𝑀𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 𝑑𝑒
𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜−1 ) = 𝑎. 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐴𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎
𝑏. 𝑇𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝐴𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑑𝑎𝑠(𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑜 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑)
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟒
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝑀𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑒 − 𝑀𝑎𝑦𝑜𝑟 − 𝑀𝑎𝑠
𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐴𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟓
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝐴𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 − 𝑃𝑜𝑟 𝑙𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 − 𝑆𝑖𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑎 − 𝐸𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 − 𝐶𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 − 𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑎
2. 𝑁𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 − 𝑁𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 𝑑𝑒
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜−1 ) = 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐴𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟔
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝐶𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒 − 𝐷𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑃(𝑥𝑜 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥1 ) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥1 ) − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜−1 )
𝑓(𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 (𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎)
𝑓(𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑(𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑎)
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟕
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝑀𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 𝑑𝑒 − 𝑚𝑎𝑦𝑜𝑟 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝑞𝑢𝑒 −
𝑃(𝑥𝑜 < 𝑋 < 𝑥1 ) = 𝑃(𝑥𝑜+1 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥1−1 ) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥1 ) − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜−1 )
𝑓(𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 (𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎)
𝑓(𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝐹𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑(𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑎)
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝟖
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑣𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑠:
1. 𝑆𝑜𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒- 𝐻𝑎𝑦𝑎 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 − 𝑄𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛
𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒆𝒔
𝑝+𝑞 = 1
𝑛
∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 𝑛 , 𝑝) = 1
𝑥=0
𝑴𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂
𝑢 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝
𝑽𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒛𝒂
𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔
𝑆𝑒 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑑𝑒 𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙.
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅
𝑛
( ) (𝑝) 𝑥 (𝑞)𝑛−𝑥 , 0≤𝑥≤ 𝑛
𝑓(𝑥) = { 𝑥
0, 𝑥<0
1, 𝑥≥𝑛
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒆 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒃𝒖𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑨𝒄𝒖𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒗𝒂 𝑩𝒊𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍
𝑛
𝑛
1 − ∑ ( ) (𝑝) 𝑥 (𝑞)𝑛−𝑥 , 0≤𝑥≤ 𝑛
𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑥
𝑥=0
0, 𝑥<0
{ 1, 𝑥≥𝑛
𝐄𝐣𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐜𝐨
La probabilidad de un componente eléctrico presente defectos es de 0.04. Si se selecciona al azar
de manera independiente cuatro de estos componentes. Determinar lo siguiente:
a) La probabilidad de que los cuatros presenten defectos.
b) La probabilidad de que ninguno este defectuoso
c) La probabilidad de que al menos uno este defectuoso
d) La probabilidad de que exactamente dos presenten defectos
𝑫𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒔
1
𝑃 = 0.04 =
25
𝑛=4
1 24
𝑞 =1−𝑝=1− =
25 25
𝑳𝒊𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒂
𝑺𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏: 𝑆𝑒 𝑢𝑠𝑎 𝑒𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑜 𝑒𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑣𝑜 𝑝𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒
𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒈𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑚𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑠 𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟.
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥𝑜 ) = 𝑓(𝑥𝑜)
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = 𝑓(4)
1 4 1 4 24 4−4
𝑓(𝑥𝑜) = 𝑓(4) = 𝑏 (4; 4 , ) = ( ) ( ) ( )
25 4 25 25
𝑓(𝑥𝑜) = 𝑓(4) = 0.0000025
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 4) = 1
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 0.99999744
4 3
1 1
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , ) − ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )
25 25
𝑥=0 𝑥=0
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = 1 − 0.99999744
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = 0.00000256
𝑃𝐷: 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑛 𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 1 𝑦 8 𝑠𝑒 𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑔𝑎 𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑚𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑙𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎 𝑒𝑠 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑙
𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑣𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑒𝑠 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑒𝑛 𝑠𝑢 𝑚𝑎𝑦𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜.
𝑳𝒊𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒃
𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑐𝑖ó𝑛: 𝑆𝑒 𝑢𝑠𝑎 𝑒𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑜 𝑒𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑣𝑜 𝑝𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒖𝒏
𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑜 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑠.
1 4 1 0 24 4−0
𝑓(𝑥𝑜) = 𝑓(0) = 𝑏 (0; 4 , ) = ( )( ) ( ) = 0.84934656
25 4 25 25
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 0) = 0.84934656
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ −1) = 0
𝑃𝐷: 𝑃𝑜𝑟 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑎 𝑢𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜
𝑖𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑜.
0
1
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )−0
25
𝑥=0
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 0.84934656 − 0
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 0.84934656
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅
4
1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )
25
𝑥=1
𝟏. 𝑭𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒗𝒆𝒓
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒆 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒃𝒖𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑨𝒄𝒖𝒎𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒂
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜−1 )
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1 − 1)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 0)
0
1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )
25
𝑥=0
4 1 0 24 4−0
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − [( ) ( ) ( ) ]
0 25 25
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − 0.84934656
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 0.15065344
𝟐. 𝑭𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒗𝒆𝒓
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅
4
1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )
25
𝑥=1
𝟑. 𝑭𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒗𝒆𝒓
𝑻𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝒍𝒂 𝑺𝒖𝒎𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅𝒆𝒔 𝑩𝒊𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍.
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒆 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒃𝒖𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑨𝒄𝒖𝒎𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒂
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜−1 )
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1 − 1)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 0)
0
1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )
25
𝑥=0
0
1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )
25
𝑥=0
1
𝑝= = 0.04
25
𝑛=4
𝑟 = 𝑥𝑜 = 1
𝑃𝐷: 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑛𝑜 𝑠𝑒 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑑𝑒 𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑟 𝑙𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑦𝑎 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑
𝑃𝐷: 𝐸𝑠𝑡𝑜 𝑛𝑜 𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑎 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑐𝑎 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑎𝑠 𝑒𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑙 𝑑𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑢𝑒𝑟𝑑𝑜 𝑎 𝑙𝑜 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑖
𝐷𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜 𝑢𝑛 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜 𝑎 𝑠𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑟 𝑙𝑎 𝑓𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑟𝑎 1.1 𝑙𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑚𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎 𝑑𝑒 4 𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛 4 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠
𝑻𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑺𝒖𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅 𝒅𝒆 𝑩𝒊𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒂𝒍𝒆𝒔
P
n r 0,04
4 0 0,84934656
1 0,99090432
2 0,99975168
3 0,99999744
4 1
𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑟 𝑙𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎 1 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑢 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑜 𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑎 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑠𝑢 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑧𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑒 1 𝑎 4 𝑠𝑒 𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎
𝑑𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠
𝑻𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅 𝑩𝒊𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒂𝒍
𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑑𝑜 𝑙𝑒𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑜 𝑒𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑚𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎 𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑞𝑢𝑒
𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎 𝑒𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑎.
P
n r 0,04
4 0 0,84934656
1 0,99090432
2 0,99975168
3 0,99999744
4 1
𝐴𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑜 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑚𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎 𝑑𝑒 4 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎
𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎 𝑒𝑙 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑚𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑒𝑛 𝑙𝑎 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎.
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.84934656
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 0.15065344
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅
𝑃𝐷: 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎 𝑛𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑧𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑒 𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑜 , 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛𝑜 𝑠𝑒
𝑠𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑟 𝑙𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 2 𝑦𝑎 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎 𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑒 1 ℎ𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑎 4, 𝑎ℎ𝑜𝑟𝑎 𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑠
𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑙𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒 1 𝑎 4. 𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑎 𝑒𝑙 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑚𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑞𝑢𝑒
𝑙𝑎 𝑠𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑟.
4
1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = ∑ 𝑏 (𝑥; 4 , )
25
𝑥=1
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 0.15065344
𝑃𝐷: 𝐷𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑠 3 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑠𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑟 𝑒𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜 𝑠𝑖 𝑠𝑜𝑛
𝑝𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑠 𝑠𝑒 𝑙𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑟 , 𝑒𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜 𝑠𝑖 𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑚𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑠 𝑠𝑒 𝑙𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒
𝑟𝑎 𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑟 𝑦 𝑒𝑙 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑜 𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑧𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑒
𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑜.
𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒃𝒖𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒔𝒐𝒏
𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑔𝑢𝑛𝑜𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠:
1. 𝑆𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑛
2. 𝐸𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎
3. 𝑆𝑢 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑠𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑚𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙
𝜆𝑡 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆
𝑝(𝑥; 𝜆𝑡) =
𝑥!
𝑥 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑛 𝑢𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜
𝜆 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑜, 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎, 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑛
𝑡 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜𝑠 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑛 𝑢𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑜 𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑜 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑜
𝜆𝑡 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜𝑠
𝑴𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂
𝑢 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜆𝑡
𝑽𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒛𝒂
𝜎 2 = 𝜆𝑡
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔
𝑆𝑒 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑑𝑒 𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑜𝑠 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑛.
𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅
𝜆𝑡 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆
𝑓(𝑥) = { 𝑥! , 𝑥≥0
0, 𝑥<0
𝜆𝑡 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆
𝐹(𝑥) = {1 − 𝑥!
, 𝑥≥0
0, 𝑥<0
𝐄𝐣𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐜𝐨
Los usuarios de un sistema eléctrico se quejan de este, ya que el número de veces a la semana que
se quedan sin energía eléctrica o falla el sistema eléctrico es considerado muy alto. Al estudiarlo
un grupo de consultores han modelado el número de fallas semanales como una Variable
Aleatoria Poisson con parámetro λ=3.2.
a) Determinar la probabilidad de que el sistema eléctrico falle al menos cuatro veces en una
semana cualquiera.
𝑫𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒔
𝜆 = 3.2
𝑡=1
𝜆𝑡 = 3.2
𝑢 = 𝜆𝑡 = 3.2
𝜎 2 = 𝜆𝑡 = 3.2
𝑳𝒊𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒂
𝟏. 𝑭𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑹𝒆𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒗𝒆𝒓
𝟓. 𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐: 𝑼𝒔𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒐 𝑭𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒆 𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒃𝒖𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑨𝒄𝒖𝒎𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒂
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑜 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜−1 )
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 4 − 1)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3)
3
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4) = 1 − ∑ 𝑝(𝑥; 𝜇)
𝑥=0
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4) = 1 − 0.6025197244
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4) = 0.3974802756
𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒐 𝒍𝒂 𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂 𝒏𝒐 𝒔𝒆 𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒂 𝒆𝒏 𝒖𝒏 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒐𝒓 𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒊𝒅𝒐 𝒑𝒐𝒓 𝒍𝒂𝒔 𝒔𝒖𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒔𝒐𝒏 , 𝒔𝒆 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒄𝒆𝒅𝒆 𝒂 𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒍𝒂 𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒂 𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒂
𝒍𝒂 𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂 𝒅𝒆𝒍 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒎𝒂.
𝑻𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒅 𝒅𝒆 𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒔𝒐𝒏
µ
r 3,2
0 0,040762204
1 0,171201257
2 0,379903741
3 0,602519724
4 0,780612511
𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒃𝒖𝒄𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑵𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒍
𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑔𝑢𝑛𝑜𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠:
1. 𝑆𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎 𝑒𝑛 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙
2. 𝐸𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑎
3. 𝑆𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑎
1 1
− (𝑥−𝜇)2
𝑛(𝑥; 𝜇 , 𝜎) = 𝑒 2𝜎2
√2𝜋𝜎
𝑥 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑛 𝑢𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜
𝜇 = 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎
𝜎 = 𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟.
𝑴𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂
𝑢 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑢
𝑽𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒛𝒂
𝜎2 = 𝜎2
𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐 𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔
𝑆𝑒 𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎 3 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑛 𝑙𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙.
𝟐. 𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐: 𝑴𝒐𝒅𝒆𝒍𝒐 𝟏
𝑃(𝑍 < −𝑧𝑜 ): 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎 𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜1.
𝑆𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑙 𝑙𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑖𝑧𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑠 , 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑛
𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑒 − 3.9 𝑎 0.
𝟑. 𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐
𝑆𝑖 𝑙𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑚𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎 𝑒𝑙 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑎 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑠𝑜𝑚𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑎 , 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜
𝑒𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜 𝑛𝑜 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑢𝑛 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜 𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜 𝑠𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑎 ℎ𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠.
𝟐. 𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐: 𝑴𝒐𝒅𝒆𝒍𝒐 𝟏
𝑃(𝑍 > −𝑧𝑜 ): 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎 𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜1.
𝑆𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑙𝑜𝑠 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑙 𝑙𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑖𝑧𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑑𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑠 , 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑛
𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑠 𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑒 − 3.9 𝑎 0.
𝟑. 𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒐
𝑃(𝑍 > 𝑧𝑜 ) = 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎1 − 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎2
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 1 = 𝐿𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎 𝑙𝑎 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑠 𝑒𝑠𝑜 𝑛𝑜 𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑒𝑟𝑒
𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑟 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎 𝑒𝑠𝑎 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒 1.
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎2: 𝐿𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑃(𝑍 > 𝑧𝑜 ) .
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎1 − 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎2 = 𝐿𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑠 2 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑑𝑜 𝑙𝑎 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑛𝑒
𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑧𝑖𝑎𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒 2 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜.
𝑃(𝑍 < 𝑧𝑜 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 > 𝑧𝑜 )
𝑫𝒊𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒂 𝒅𝒆 𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔 𝑷(𝒁 < 𝒛𝒐 ) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝒁 > 𝒛𝒐 )
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎1 − 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 2
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎1 − 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 2