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4/5/2018

Lecture 13 th

Interruption Causes and Component Reliability Parameters

Course Teacher:

Dr. Muhammad Mohsin Aman

Course Code:

Course Title:

EE-524

Power System Reliability

Venue:

Department of Electrical Engineering , Bahiria University Karachi.

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13 th Lecture’s Outline

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13 th Lecture’s Outline

Interruption Causes
Component Modeling
Component Reliability Parameters

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Interruption Causes

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Interruption Causes

Customer interruptions are caused by a wide range of phenomena including

equipment failure,

animals,

trees,

severe weather,

and human error.

These causes are at the root of distribution reliability. In addition, identifying and addressing physical root causes is often the most cost effective way to address reliability problems.

Component Modeling

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Component Modeling

A distribution system consists of thousands of components such as transformers, circuit breakers, overhead lines, underground cable, fuse cutouts, and sectionalizing switches. These components are building blocks that can be assembled in a myriad of ways to create a wide variety of distribution system designs, each with its own unique characteristics.

Component Modeling

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From a reliability perspective, nearly all of the information needed to create a distribution system model is contained in distribution component informationa highly desirable feature. Given a palette of components, systems can be constructed from scratch by choosing components and connecting them together. Once a system model has been created, modifications can be easily made by adding components, removing components, and modifying component characteristics.

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Component Modeling

Needless to say, component models are critical to distribution system reliability. A component model should be as simple as possible, but needs to

capture all of the features critical to system reliability. This chapter presents the reliability parameters typically assigned to components, discusses how these parameters can be modeled, and provides some guidelines for assigning

default component reliability data.

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Reliability Terminologies

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Reliability Terminologies

Reliability is a measure of continuous service accomplishment (or time to

failure). Availability: the fraction of the time that service is available. The (steady- state) probability that power will be available. Clear: to remove a fault or other disturbance-causing condition from the

power supply source or from the electrical route between it and the customer.

Cut set: in reliability analysis, a set of components which when removed from service causes a cessation of power flow. Dependability: used here, it means reliability of performance over the short-term, or with respect to only a certain schedule: "Although available only during the day, the solar-power generator proved a dependable source of power from 9 to 5 every day”.

Reliability Terminologies

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Durability: the ability to maintain high levels of reliability or dependability while in service over long periods of time. Two units of equipment can be equally reliable, or dependable, when initially installed, but the more durable will be in much better shape after ten years, etc. Duration: the total elapsed time of an interruption or outage, as the case may be. Failure: a change in status of equipment or a system from performing its function as expected to no longer performing its function completely. Failure rate: the average number of failures of a component or unit of the system in a given time (usually a year).

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Reliability Terminologies

Frequency: how often interruptions or outages, as the case may be, occur. Interruption: a cessation of service to one or more customers, whether power was being used at that moment or not.

Instantaneous interruption: an interruption lasting only as long as it takes for completely automatic equipment to clear the disturbance or

outage. Often less than one second.

Momentary interruption: an interruption lasting only as long as it takes automatic but manually supervised equipment to be activated to restore service, usually only a few minutes, sometimes less than fifteen seconds.

Planned interruption: an interruption of power due to a planned outage, of which customers were informed reasonably far in advance.

Temporary interruption: an interruption manually restored, lasting as long as it takes.

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Reliability Terminologies

Outage: the failure of part of the power supply system - a line down,

transformer out of service, or whatever else is intended to be in operation but is not - whether due to unexpected or planned circumstances.

Expected Outage - an equipment outage that was anticipated in some sense. Application of this differs from utility to utility, but generally this means something more definite than “Well, we knew it would fail eventually”. Often, this is applied to equipment failures that were anticipated and for which preparations had been made: "Diagnostics indicated that cable failure was imminent but not which section would fail. We had switched in a backup cable to continue service when failure occurred, and went ahead and let the failure happen so as to identify the bad section of cable”.

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Reliability Terminologies

Forced Outage - an equipment outage that was not scheduled in advance,

even if initiated by the utility. The equipment may not be damaged but usually something went wrong: "The unit was observed to be smoking slightly so it was withdrawn from service. It turned out just to be a slight oil leak and the unit was repaired and returned to service the next day."

Scheduled Outage - an equipment outage that was scheduled in advance

and initiated by the utility's actions, as for example when work crews remove equipment from service for maintenance, etc. Unexpected Outage - an equipment outage that was not anticipated. Usually, an unexpected outage is due to equipment failure, an accident, or damage of some type.

Reliability Terminologies

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Trouble: anything that causes an unexpected outage or interruption including equipment failures, storms, earthquakes, automobile wrecks, vandalism, operator error, or "unknown causes." consumers see good reliability from their point of view when looking back into the system, regardless of equipment issues. Continuous availability: Perhaps the most important aspect of reliability is that power most be continuously available. Basically, the utility must maintain an always unbroken chain of power flow from a source of power to each consumer. Sufficient power: This chain of power flow must be able to deliver enough power that it does not constrain the consumer's ability to have as much as he needs whenever he needs it.

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Reliability Terminologies

Satisfactory quality: Voltage, frequency, and other aspects of the power made available must be suitable to meet the consumer's needs. This is what it really means to design and operate a "reliable" power delivery system. Figure 4.1 illustrates this, based on a diagram (Figure 2.1) from Brown (2002). Reliability - whatever guise it takes - is a part of "Power Quality" in

the larger sense. Power quality in turn is part of customer satisfaction, the real

measure of a utility's good customer focus. However, many of the other factors contributing to customer satisfaction, such as the quality of billing and response to customer inquiries, are generally beyond the venue of the planner.

17 Reliability Terminologies ✓a 18
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Reliability Terminologies
✓a
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Types of Failure

Transient failures (or soft errors):

Charge q = c*v

Sources are cosmic rays and alpha particles and electrical noise

Device is still operational but value has been corrupted Intermittent/temporary failures

Last longer due to Temporary: environmental variations (eg, temperature)

Last longer due to Intermittent: aging

Permanent failures

Means that the device will never function again

Must be isolated and replaced by spare

Process variations increase the probability of failures

if c and v decrease then it is easier to flip a bit

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Component Reliability Parameters

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Component Reliability Parameters

Each distribution system component can be described by a set of reliability parameters. Simple reliability models are based on component failure rates and component repair times, but sophisticated models make use of many other reliability parameters.

A detailed description of some of the most common component reliability

parameters is now provided.

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Component Reliability Parameters

Permanent Short Circuit Failure Rate (λ P ) :

λ P describes the number of times per year that a component can expect to experience a permanent short circuit. This type of failure causes fault current to flow, requires the protection system to operate, and requires a crew to be dispatched for the fault to be repaired.

Temporary Short Circuit Failure Rate (λ T ):

λ T describes the number of times per year that a component can expect to experience a temporary short circuit. This type of failure causes fault current to flow, but will clear itself if the circuit is de-energized (allowing the arc to de- ionize) and then reenergized.

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Component Reliability Parameters

Open Circuit Failure Rate (λ OC ):

λ OC describes the number of times per year that a component will interrupt the flow of current without causing fault current to flow. An example of a component causing an open circuit is when a circuit breaker false trips.

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Component Reliability Parameters

Mean Time To Repair (MTTR): MTTR represents the expected time it will take for a failure to be repaired (measured from the time that the failure occurs). A single MTTR is typically used for each component, but separate values can be used for different failure modes. It represents the average time required to repair a failed component or device.

MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) is a measure of how reliable a component, product or system is. It represents the mean time between failures for items that are repairable.

MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) is similar to MTBF but represents the mean time to failure for items that are not repairable.

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Component Reliability Parameters

Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) measures reliability Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) measures Service Interruption Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) = MTTF+MTTR

✓ Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) = MTTF+MTTR 25 Component Reliability Parameters ✓ Failures In Time

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Component Reliability Parameters

Failures In Time (FIT) is inverse of MTTF. Traditionally reported as failures per 10 9 hours of operation. Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) measures reliability. Failures In Time (FIT) = 1/MTTF, the rate of failures

Ex. MTTF = 1,000,000

FIT = 10 9 /10 6 = 1000

Availability is a measures service as alternate between the 2 states of accomplishment and interruption (number between 0 and 1, e.g. 0.9) Module availability = MTTF / ( MTTF + MTTR)

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Component Reliability Parameters

How to measure a system’s ability to tolerate faults? Reliability = Probability[no failure @ time t] = R(t) Availability = Probability[system operational]

E.g. AT&T ESS-1, one of the first computer-controlled telephone exchange (deployed in 1960s) was designed for less than two hours of downtime over its lifetime: 40 years. Availability = 99.9994% Failure rate:

Fraction of samples that fail per unit time

Is NOT constant, changes over time

R(t) = N(t)/N(0), where N(t) is the number of operational units at time t.

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Component Reliability Parameters

If modules have exponentially distributed lifetimes (age of module does not affect probability of failure), Overall failure rate is the sum of failure rates of all the modules Calculate FIT and MTTF for 10 disks (1M hour MTTF per disk), 1 disk controller (0.5M hour MTTF), and 1 power supply (0.2M hour MTTF):

Fai lur eRat e = 10 ´ (1 /1, 000, 000) + 1 / 500, 000 + 1 / 200, 000

= (10 + 2 + 5) /1, 000, 000

= 17 /1, 000, 000

= 17, 000 FIT

MT TF = 1, 000, 000, 000 /17, 000

» 59, 000 hour s

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Component Reliability Parameters

Mean Time To Maintain (MTTM): MTTM represents the average amount of time that it takes to perform scheduled maintenance on a piece of equipment.

Mean Time To Switch (MTTS): MTTS represents the expected time it

will take for a sectionalizing switch to operate after a fault occurs on the

system. For manual switches, this is the time that is takes for a crew to be dispatched and drive to the switch location. For an automated switch, the MTTS will be much shorter.

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Component Reliability Parameters

Probability of Operational Failure (POF): POF is the conditional probability that a device will not operate if it is supposed to operate. For example, if an automated switch fails to function properly 5 times out of every 100 attempted operations, it has a POF of 5%. This reliability parameter is typically associated with switching devices and protection devices.

Scheduled Maintenance Frequency (λ M ): M represents the frequency of scheduled maintenance for a piece of equipment. For example, a maintenance frequency of 2 per year means that the equipment is maintained every 6 months.

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Component Reliability Parameters

All of the above-mentioned reliability parameters are important, but component failure rates have historically received the most attention.

This is because failure rates have unique characteristics and are essential for

all types of reliability analyses. The next section looks at failure rates in more

detail and explains how electrical component failure rates tend to vary with

time.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

It is typical to model component reliability parameters by a single scalar value. For example, a power transformer might be modeled with a failure rate

of 0.03 per year. These scalar values, though useful, might not tell the entire story. Perhaps the most obvious example is the observation that the failure rates of certain components tend to vary with age.

It might seem reasonable to conclude that new equipment fails less than old

equipment.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

When dealing with complex components, this is usually not the case. In fact, newly installed electrical equipment has a relatively high failure rate due to the possibility that the equipment has manufacturing flaws, was damaged during shipping, was damaged during installation, or was installed incorrectly. This period of high failure rate is referred to as the infant mortality period or the equipment break-in period.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

If a piece of equipment survives its break-in period, it is likely that there are no manufacturing defects, that the equipment is properly installed, and that the equipment is being used within its design specifications. It now enters a period

referred to as its useful life, characterized by a nearly constant failure rate that can be accurately modeled by a single scalar number.

As the useful life of a piece of equipment comes to an end, the previously

constant failure rate will start to increase as the component starts to wear out. That is why this time is referred to as the wear-out period of the equipment. During the wear-out period, the failure rate of a component tends to increase exponentially until the component fails. Upon failure, the component should be replaced.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

A graph that is commonly used to represent how a component’s failure rate changes with time is the bathtub curve. The bathtub curve begins with a high failure rate (infant mortality), lowers to a constant failure rate (useful life), and then increases again (wear-out).

lowers to a constant failure rate (useful life), and then increases again (wear-out). 36 Dr. Muhammad

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓a
✓a
37 Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves Burn-in is a test performed to screen or 1
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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves
Burn-in is a test performed to screen or
1
eliminate marginal components with inherent
defects or defects resulting from manufacturing
process.
Early Life
Region
0
Time t
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Failure Rate

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

An important assumption for effective maintenance is that

components will eventually have an Increasing Failure Rate. Maintenance can return the component to the
components will eventually have an Increasing Failure Rate.
Maintenance can return the component to the Constant
Failure Region.
2
Constant Failure Rate
Region
Failure Rate
0 Time t 39 Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves Components will eventually enter the Wear-
0
Time t
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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves
Components will eventually enter the Wear-
Out Region where the Failure Rate
increases, even with an effective
Maintenance Program. You need to be able
to detect the onset of Terminal Mortality
3
Wear-Out
Region
0
Time t
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Failure Rate

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Derivation of R(t)

Probability[no failure @ time t] = R(t)

Assuming a constant failure rate λ, N is the number of units

dN



N t dt

( )

dR ( t )

dN t

( )

dN (0)

Integrating with R(0) = 1 boundary: R(t) = e -λt

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

Another name for the bathtub curve is the bathtub hazard function. The use of the term “hazard rate” is common in the field of reliability assessment and is equivalent to the failure rate of the component.

Hazard Rate (Failure Rate): The hazard rate of a component at time t is the probability of a component failing at time t if the component is still functioning at time t.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

A more detailed curve used to represent a component’s hazard function is the saw-tooth bathtub curve.

hazard function is the saw-tooth bathtub curve . ✓ Instead of using a constant failure rate

Instead of using a constant failure rate in the useful life period, this curve

uses an increasing failure rate. The increase is attributed to normal wear, and can be mitigated by periodic maintenance.

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Failure Rates And Bathtub Curves

This is analogous to changing the oil in an automobile. If done regularly, the reliability of the car will not degrade substantially. If changing the oil is neglected, reliability will quickly degrade and the probability of a failure occurring increases accordingly. If performing maintenance on the component reduces the failure rate to the same level each time, it is referred to as perfect maintenance.

A standard bathtub curve is an approximation of a saw-tooth bathtub curve. It models the useful life as the average useful life of the saw-tooth curve. This approximation is sufficient for most reliability models, but a full saw-tooth curve must be used if decisions about maintenance are to be made.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

A bathtub function and a saw-tooth bathtub function are shown in Figure. The standard bathtub curve is characteristic of the failure rates of many electrical components that are prone to shipping damage and installation errors.

that are prone to shipping damage and installation errors. 45 Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves ✓
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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

In the real world, maintenance is rarely perfect. After each maintenance effort, component reliability will usually be a bit worse than the last time maintenance was performed. If performing maintenance on the component reduces the failure rate to a slightly higher level each time, it is referred to as imperfect maintenance. A further complication is that failure rates after maintenance can often increase temporarily. This phenomenon, similar to infant mortality, is due to the possibility of maintenance crews causing damage, making errors during re- assembly, leaving tools inside equipment, and so forth. If the maintained equipment survives for a short period of time, the maintenance was probably performed properly and failure rates are decreased accordingly.

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Failure Rates And Bathtub Curves

A detailed maintenance interval hazard function is shown in Figure 4.2.

maintenance interval hazard function is shown in Figure 4.2. ✓ A hazard function showing the detailed

A hazard function showing the detailed behavior of equipment reliability during maintenance. When maintenance is performed at hour 100, the failure rate (λ) is relatively high. λ is reduced to zero during maintenance, and then spikes to a very high level due to the possibility of mistakes happening during maintenance. λ quickly decreases to a level lower than pre-maintenance, and then gradually rises until it is time for the next maintenance activity.

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