Decision Making in a

Command Team

COL ONG YU LIN

Commander, Officer Cadet School SAFTI
IMTA Singapore
Nov 05

Agenda

z To share experiences in Decision

Making in a Command Team
• Understanding how people think and make
decisions
• Understanding how a group of people can
collectively think and make decisions
• Leveraging on information to achieve higher
speed of command

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Method and Endstate
z Change the way we
• Think of information and its dissemination
• Make use of information
• Seek the ‘right’ information
• Accomplish tasks, organise and train a command
team
z Endstate
• To achieve a higher speed of command
• To make better plans
• To translate plans into actions faster
• To better deal with change and uncertainty

Background Information

z Commander, Officer Cadet School

(OCS) SAFTI Military Institute
z Brigade Commander
z Division Operations Officer (G3)
z Battalion Commander

2
 Mission Plan
The Plan
Battle – A contest of wills
Mission
and interactions of real
actions, perceived actions
and inactions

Start

Mission Planning
Enemy Actions –
Real and Perceived Mission

Own Actions – Executed

In anticipation, On time,
Delayed or not executed
Start

3
 The Plan

The Plan - A framework

Mission
for Command and
Control

The Planning Process -

A Learning Process to
create shared mental
models.
Start

Domains of Decision Making

Physical Domain

Where Strike, Protect and Where decisions are

Maneuver take place executed as actions

Information Domain
Where Information is Where Information is put
created, manipulated and into context to facilitate
shared identification of patterns

Cognitive Domain
Where mental models, Where, as a result of
perceptions, awareness, sensemaking, decisions
beliefs and values reside are made

Social Domain
Where relationships and
Where individual and units team dynamics affect the
interacts process and quality of
decision making

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Endstate of Decision Making
Physical Domain
• The right actions
• The right places at the right time

Information Domain

• The right information in the right format at the right time

Cognitive Domain

• The right understandings at the right time

Social Domain
• The right rules, roles and relationships at the right time
• The right dissemination of intent/vision at the right time

Framework for Discussion

z Cognitive Domain
• Processes – modified, adapted and enhanced to
incorporate a recognition primed decision making
model
z Information Domain
• Clear definition and understanding of information, its
uses, flow, representation and management to
facilitate situation awareness and sensemaking
z Social Domain
• Understanding the impact of team Composition, Roles
(& responsibilities), Rules and Relationships (team
dynamics) have on quality of decision making

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Decision Making – Occurs during

z Planning Process
• Make better plans given available time and
resources, risks and the known unknown and
unknown unknowns
• Effect faster decision-to-action cycles
z Control of Operations
• Better understanding of the situation to deal
with change and uncertainty better

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Decision Making –
A Balance of Analysis and Intuition

z Intuition
• The use of experience to
Intuition recognise key patterns
• Adoption of Klein’s
Recognition Primed
Decision Making
Analysis z Analysis
• Problem solving
• Analytical reasoning –
generating options for
comparison

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6
A Model of Decision Making in a Team Context
Member n Cognitive
Member 1 Domain
Team Leader Judgment
Mental Collective
Models Mental Pattern Recognition Sense Making
Models Mental
Reality Simulatio
Active
Check/ n
Information
Update Search
Collective
Situation Sense Command
Team Understanding
Awareness making Intent
Situation Providing Cues of Command
Awareness Intent

Team Orientation Team Communication

Social
Domain
Mutual Trust Team Self-Correction

Team Leadership Planning

Information
Information
Domain
(Data in Context) Directives

Data
(Representation)
Synchronisation
Physical
Domain
Objects/Events
Actions

© Ong and Lim, 2005, Decision Making in a Brigade Command Team: Integrating Theory and Practice, 13
POINTER Vol 30, Number 4, 2005

Key Aspects of the Model…

z The start state of the model assumes that the
team leader and members are experts in their
specific domains
z These experiences are captured as individual
mental models
z These mental models guide the information
search by focusing on relevant cues via
situation awareness
z These mental models also facilitate the
recognition of patterns in the array of cues and
information; and help to size up the situation
quickly

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Key Aspects of the Model…
z The interplay of the 3 processes –
sensemaking, command intent and mental
simulation enables:
• The determination of a COA, evaluate it against the
command intent by mentally simulating the
consequences when that COA is executed
• If the consequences cannot fulfill the command intent,
seek another COA
z Process repeats until the arrival at first COA
that works (satisficing)

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Key Aspects of the Model…

z Team cognition
• The extent the team leader and members have:
• Similar mental models (ie team mental models),
• Similar perception of the situation (team SA)
• Shared understanding of situation (collective sensemaking)
• Common understanding of the command intent
• The team will be able to make swift and quality decisions
• Develops when the team develops the 5 critical team
processes in the social domain
• Team leadership
• Team communications
• Team self-corrections
• Mutual trust
• Team orientation
• Need to develop the individual experts, then develop the
necessary team processes to transform teams of experts
into expert teams

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8
Building the Team

z Phase 1
• Vision, Role, Rules and Relationship (V3R)
z Phase 2
• Understand and develop the thinking process,
mental models, analytical skills of team
members and the information management
process

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Building the Team – Phase 1 (V3R)

z Efforts concentrated on:
• Developing a shared vision
• Building team structures and relationships
z A shared vision was developed
z Roles to be played by each member were agreed on
z Rules were set to guide the work and interaction of the
team
• ‘Question and understand the reason why’
• ‘Make it happen’
• ‘Don’t complain about the problems – solve them’
• ‘If there are no rules – invent them’
• ‘Who else needs to know and why’

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Building the Team – Phase 2
z Focus on building the cognitive domain of team functioning:
• Understanding one another thinking process, mental models and
analytical skills
• Started with an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each
member in terms of thinking and analytical skills
• Shared understanding of collective strengths and weaknesses
allowed team members to complement each other
• Understanding members’ background, past postings and
experiences enabled other team members a better understanding
of how their mental models were shaped and developed
• Mutual trust was critical
z All team members also agreed
Quality of
on a theory of success
Relationships

Quality of Quality of
Actions Communications

Quality of
Understanding

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Recognition Primed Decision Making (Klein)

z Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD)

model is the fusion of 2 processes:
• The way decision makers size up the situation
to recognise which course of action makes
sense, and
• The way they evaluate that course of action
by imagining it

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 RPD – Variation 1 – Simple Match

Experience the Situation

z “If … then” reaction
in Changing Context
z Cause followed by a
rule-based response
Perceived as Typical

4 By-Products of Recognition

Relevant
Expectancies
Cues

Plausible Typical
Goals Actions

Implement
Course of Action

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RPD – Variation 2 – Diagnose the Situation

More Data z “If (???) … then” reaction

Experience the Situation
in Changing Context
z Deliberation on the nature
of the situation
No
Diagnose Is Situation Typical?

Yes

Clarify
4 By-Products of Recognition

Relevant
Anomaly Expectancies
Cues

Plausible Typical
Goals Actions

Implement
Course of Action

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RPD – Variation 3 – Evaluate COAs
Experience the Situation
in Changing Context z “If … then (???)” reaction
z Deliberation on the
Perceived as Typical outcome of a reaction
4 By-Products of Recognition

Expectancies Relevant
Cues

Plausible Actions
Goals (1,…n)

Evaluate Action (n)

Yes, but No

Modify Will it work?

Yes

Implement
Course of Action

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Recognitional Planning Model (Klein)

Mission Analysis
CAOS
Develop Analyse and Mental Simulation
Formulate
Operationalise COAs Action & Reaction Compile Orders
COAs
Wargaming

Comdr as the Chief Planner to derive a Once the COA satisfices, it becomes
tentative concept of operations. Tapping on the plan. No need to compare options
Comdr’s experience and creativity.

• Does not prohibit the consideration of multiple COAs but considers a

single COA at any time
• Early selection allows continuous improvements and parallel planning by
other echelons

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Adaptation of the RPM
Mission Analysis
CAOS
Develop Analyse and Mental Simulation
Formulate
Operationalise COAs Action & Reaction Compile Orders
COAs
Wargaming

Issue detailed CPG outlining a Develops multiple COAs NOT for

vision of how the battle is shaped comparison but to understand the
and the possible concepts of alternatives and the relationships
operations to achieve this. between them
-Intent - Line of Options
-Concepts - SWOT Analysis of each COA
-Options

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COA Framework

INTENT

Concept A Concept B

Option A1 Option B1

Option A2 Option B2

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 CONCEPT OF OPERATION
(A Story Telling Approach)
A reinforced Bde deliberate defence of YONKERS to achieve the
following effects. Disrupting enemy advance to gain time and to attrite
enemy armour elements to reduce his armour forces and to destroy an Inf
Bde (enemy's main effort in attack phase) during their advance to
YONKERS. This will reduce enemy forces by one major manoeuvre unit,
forcing an immediate change of plan for their attack on YONKERS and at
the same time, blunting his armour punch. Obstacles north of YONKERS
will be emplaced along SESAME to slow down this eastern effort and to
subsequently attrite the follow-on Inf Bde by fire and manoeuvre in the
vicinity of the restrictive terrain at FLINCH/HUROR. Subsequently, the
concentration of effort will shift to the restrictive terrain on the western
sector at CANDY/BURUNDI to attrite the armour forces in contact and
subsequently during its reconstitution to reduce its effectiveness for
breakout. The obstacles south of YONKERS will be emplaced to channel
the breakout enemy armour into the restrictive terrain at
DALLAS/JOCKEY. This will shape the condition for targeting by our
artillery and air assets and counter penetration by Bde Res 2 & 3.

9a. LANDING OF 10a. CAPTURE 11a. BREAKOUT 12. LINK-

TF100 STANLEY, FROM UP AT
& TF200 (CONGO) ZAMBIA AND STANLEY, CONGO
WILFRED ZAMBIA OR
WILFRED
9b. TF100 (CONGO)
1. INSERTION OF 5. GSW TGT
TF200 SECURE 10b. CAPTURE 11b. BREAKOUT
DLRRPS 6. CROSS STANLEY/LACOME STANLEY AND FROM STANLEY
MERCURY(SA LACOME AND LACOME
2. INSERTION OF CDO BATTLE)
STRIKE 9c. TF100
7. TGT ANDTF200 ESTB
FORCES AT BLKS ALONG
3. INSERTION OF BRC CAMPHOR/DORIS
MDA
OR BRUTUS LINE
4. INSERTION OF 8. COMMENCE
DISRUPTION FORCE INSERTION OF 9d. TF200 TO 10d. CAPTURE 10d. BREAKOUT
DEPTH CANDY TO CUT WILFRED FROM WILFRED
FORCES OFF SA FORCES ONLY ONLY

9a 10a 11a
3
KERS
9c

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12
1 2
LAUNCH OPS LAUNCH 9b 10b 11b
TF100 & TF200 3
BREAKOUT OF
ARMR FORCES

9d 10d 11d
3
PRE-OPS ADVANCE ATTACK BREAKOUT

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 1.Secure CONGO crossing 7.Def prep 10. MDA battle
13.Redeploy
2.Secure POKKA 8.Conduct of SA 11. Reserve employment

3.Secure BIHAR 9.Withdrawal/

11a. Res 1 to SHIKOTAN
Battle hand over
4.Secure YONKERS and
10a. 2 SIR Res to STINGRAY 11b. Res 1 to WILFRED
Reconstitution
5.Secure ANTHONY 11c. Res 1 to LB/LZ
10b. 2 SIR Res to WILFRED
CANDY
12a. Res 2 & 3 to CPEN
6.Secure TOYOTA DALLAS/JOCKEY
10a 10b 11a 11b 11c 12b. Res 2 & 3 or Div Res
to CATTK at QUINCY or
Means OCA DALLAS?JOCKEY
allocated 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Or
1 2 3 OCA 2 4 5 6 12a 12b

Defence Prep & Reorganisation

Advance Conduct of MDA battle
Delay battle

OCA Realign to OCA 3 Transit to OCA

4 or 4 or OCA 4
OCA 3 Modified Modified?

1 2 3 4 5 6
Commence Confirmation Adjustment of Withdrawal of Def realignment Res activation
ops of defence line Defence Plan SA Forces • Main effort ID • Redcon status
• HHQ Orders • Redcon • Redcon Redcon status • Redcon status • Main effort ID
• En activity status status • Route
• Time • En activity • En activity
available

Line of Options - Simplified

Perceived Transition to
State other COAs

Time

Start Selected COA – The Plan End

Mission Mission

•Variety of alternative paths to mission accomplishment is an

indicator of flexibility
• Creation of alternatives is a cognitive activity – a creative process
stimulated by collaboration among multiple participants with
different perspective

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Line of Options – Key to Flexibility

z Facilitates control of operations as it provides:

• A framework for more rapid recognition of changes in
the battlespace
• Seamless transition to foreclose or marginalise some
options and maintenance of momentum without need
to develop detailed contingency plans
• Foresee multiple futures – building blocks for actions
• Reduce likelihood of surprise and dislocation

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Intel Requirements – EEI

(Active Info Search)
z Essential Elements of Intel (EEI) crafted to:
• Facilitate recognition of changes and emerging patterns Æ
perceived state
• Interpret possible En intent Æ foreclose or marginalise
options Æ reduces en flexibility and prevent surprise
z Supported by a list of descriptions of indicators/cues
to:
• Determine possible options Æ counter emerging threats or
exploit opportunities Æ disrupt en intent and decision cycles
z Non-events trigger further thinking and questions
• So what can the enemy be possibly doing?
• Redirection of other Intel agencies to confirm other likely
alternatives

• Facilitates control of operations

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Decision Making in Control of Operations –
Key Components
z Situation Awareness (SA)
• Not what’s on display but what’s in the head
• Not static but a rich, dynamic comprehension of situation
and what drives it
• Goes beyond data to notice trends, build expectancies, spot
anomalies and see windows of opportunities for exploitation
• Good SA envisions more than one potential future and
recognises uncertainty as a key element of the situation
z Sensemaking
• More than just sharing information and identifying patterns
• Goes beyond what is happening and what may happen to
what can be done about it
• Involves generating options, predicting adversary’s actions
and reactions and understanding the effect of particular
courses of actions

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Improving Team Communication and Team

Situation Awareness
z Understand what ‘Information’ is and what it can do
z What , What Kind, When, Who Needs, How to share ?
• Webpages (Key Information One-Click Away), Schematics
• Information flow
z Post Before Processing
• Populate the network with information in a timely way
• Where possible, to post new information placed in context
and merge information with existing knowledge to produce
richer products
z Pull and Push
• Pull/Push the right information in the right format to the right
persons at the right time and right place
• Information has no hierarchy

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Situational Update - 4 Key Questions
z Is the situation clear or uncertain ?
• What are the key indicators/patterns emerging? What are the
implications?
z Is the operations proceeding according to plan ?
• If not, what are the anomalies? What are the implications?
z Is the Commander Intent for this phase and entire
operations achievable?
• If not, what are the alternatives or adjustment needed? What
are the implications?
z Is the plan still relevant ?
• If not , what are the alternatives or adjustment needed? What
are the implications?

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Conclusions

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Key Attributes of an effective
Command Team
z Innovative
• Ability to do new things and the ability to old things in new ways
z Adaptive
• Ability to change work processes and the ability to change the organization
z Flexible
• Ability to employ multiple ways to succeed and the capacity to move seamlessly
between them
z Responsiveness
• Ability to react to a change in the environment in a timely manner
z Resilience
• Ability to recover from or adjust to misfortune, damage or psychological
dislocation
z Robustness
• Ability to maintain effectiveness across a range of tasks, situations and
conditions

Definitions from Key Dimensions of Agility – Power to the Edge, Alberts, D

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Building the team …

z Know and understand own identity in
terms of team roles
z Know and manage own strengths and
weaknesses
z Learn how to develop your team roles
z Project oneself in the best possible way
z How to work more effectively in teams

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 Thanks

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Data, Information and Knowledge

Data Information Knowledge

DEFINITION Raw Facts Data organized to Information structured

show patterns for action
CONTENT Events Trends Expertise

FORM Transactions Patterns Learning

INFO TASK Representation Manipulation Codification

HUMAN Observation Judgment Experience

ELEMENT
ORG INTENT Automation Decision Making Action

VALUE TEST Building Blocks Uncertainty New Understanding

Reduction

Source: Sensemaking Symposium 23-25 Oct 01, CCRP

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 41

Enhancing Info Flow and SA

Planning and Command

OPS

OPS
INT

INT

Presentation and Control

Area Hub

Fires & Tgt Fires &

Manoeuvre
BEO/ADO

BEO/ADO
FSCC
BALO

BALO
FSCC
CSS

CSS

Existing BTOC Reorganized BTOC

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