Progress 2 Report

1. Introduction
2. Background / Literature Review
 NWRS method
 Each type of demand
 Rationale of water demand option system (TOR)
3. Methodology
 Link to Water Accounting
 NWRS review
 Population projection (Mr.E)
 Update projected demand using population projection
 Summary of data needed
4. Result and Discussion
 Population Forecast
 Projected demand
5. Conclusion and Further Works
 Issues during development
 Next steps
Population Projection Methodology

The TOR for this study requires water balance study for the Melaka River Basin
up to the year 2050. An important component of the study is population
projection that will provide data input for domestic, commercial, institutional
and industrial water demand projection.

Population projection in this study will in general follow the methodology

adopted in the previous Review of National Water Resources Study (2000-2050)
with updated data such as the following from the Department of Statistics,
Malaysia:
 Population and Housing Census (Census 2010);
 Mid-year Population Estimate by State and Sex (1970-2017);
 Vital Statistics Malaysia (2010-2017);
 Abridged Life Tables Malaysia (2010-2017);
 Migration and Population Distribution (2010);
 Migration Survey Reports Malaysia (2011-2016); and
 Employed Persons by Industry, Malaysia/States (1982-2016).

Other references for the study are:

 Review of National Water Resources Study (2000-2050) completed in

2011;
 Migration Profiles of Malaysia (UNICEF); and
 Review of Labour Migration Policy in Malaysia (International Labour
Organization, 2016).

The review study carried out population projection for three scenarios - low,
medium and high variants - based on the Cohort-component method, a
commonly used method for estimating or projecting population. In deriving
population projections, the base population is projected forward by
calculating the effect of deaths and migration within each age-sex group
according to specified mortality and migration assumptions. New birth cohorts
are generated by applying specified fertility assumptions to the female
population of childbearing age.
The projection is performed with the aid of Rural-Urban Population (RUP)
projection program developed by the US Census Bureau. The program can be
used to project the population of a country or any area within it. If sufficient
data is available, it can also be used to project urban and rural population.
RUP is a fully developed demographic projection program for preparing
cohort-component projections for population defined either in five- or single-
year age-groups one year at a time. The cohort component method projects
each age and sex cohort over time based on the components of growth.
Annual births create new cohorts, while existing cohorts are decreased by
mortality and either increased or decreased by migration.
The RUP program has features that allow a considerable amount of flexibility
for specifying fertility, mortality, and migration. As a result, RUP can be used to
produce estimates for years where data on these components are available
followed by projections into the future. The following are the RUP output options
that allow a detailed examination of the projection results:
1. The projection is performed by single years of age. This feature allows one
to obtain results for special age-groups that do not fall into conventional
5-year age-groups. It also allows you to track population cohorts that may
be smaller or larger than the surrounding cohorts due to past demographic
events.

2. The projection is performed year by year. This feature allows one to input
information on demographic events for a particular year (e.g., excess
mortality due to natural disaster) without spreading the effect over a 5-
year period. It also provides planners with estimates for each year without
having to interpolate between data for surrounding years.

3. Input data for the population and components can be provided in either
single ages or 5-year age-groups. The age groupings of each item are
independent, so you can input 5-year data for some items and single-year
data for others. The program converts all data to single years of age before
performing the projection.

4. The open-ended age-group in the input data can vary between 50 years
and above and 100 years and above. In spite of doubts regarding the
accuracy of data for the oldest age population, projections should be
made using the highest possible open-ended age-group in order to more
accurately represent the population dynamics. If one desires, one can still
aggregate the results with a younger open-ended age-group.

5. The program accepts mortality and fertility rates as input (as do most
programs), and it also allows the input of numbers of births, deaths, and/or
migrants. This feature allows one to update a base population with recent
actual data on vital events. For instance, if the country has census data for
1982 and registered deaths and births as well as migrants from 1982 to 1989,
one can include these actual data in the projection without having to
estimate rates. In this case, the program would project the 1982 population
by age and sex using life tables consistent with the numbers of deaths (by
age and/or sex if available) and mortality patterns for surrounding years,
age-specific fertility rates consistent with the numbers of births (by age of
mother if available), and the known number of migrants for the years 1982
to 1989. For subsequent years, the program would use the projected trend
of these components as specified in the input.
 6. One can provide input data for any year, including years prior to or
following the projection period. The choices for each component
(mortality, fertility, international migration, and internal migration) are
completely independent. For example, a projection starting in 1970 can
have fertility inputs for 1970, 1977, and 1995, and mortality inputs for 1965,
1975, and 2000. Data inputs for years outside the projection period are
used to interpolate estimates for years during the projection and/or as
patterns of the age structure of the particular component.

7. The program provides output of a wide variety of demographic measures

for any specified year of the projection. These outputs include:
a. Population by sex and age (single years, 5-year age-groups,
special groups) and summary measures of age (e.g., percentages,
sex ratios, median ages, dependency ratios);
b. Summary vital rates (e.g., crude rates, life expectancy, infant
mortality rates, and total fertility rates);
c. Life tables;
d. Net numbers of migrants or migration rates by age and sex;
e. Number of deaths, by age and sex; and
f. Number of births, by age of mother, and age-specific fertility rates.

8. One can perform projection for one or two areas. If two areas are
projected, the program can perform projection for a third area as the sum
of the two areas (e.g., Total = Urban + Rural or Rural = Total - Urban).

Assumptions for Population Projection in the NWRS Review

As the Malaysian population growth rate is low (ranging from 1.5% to 2.3% since
2004), international migration heavily influences the future population size for
the country as a whole. Hence, the review study made the following
assumptions for the three variants:

 Base population for projection: Population and Housing Census 2000;

 The low variant assumed a maximum of 1.5 million foreign workers
throughout the projection period; the cap of 1.5 million foreign workers
was announced by the Government in 2010 (Bernama, 14 April 2010);
 The medium variant assumed that foreign workers will constitute 13-14%
of the national population;
 The high variant assumed that foreign workers will make up 16% of the
total population by 2020 and increasing to more than 25% by 2050;
  The total fertility rate (TFR) decreases from 2.4 per woman in the year
2010 to 2.0 in 2040 and remaining constant at 2.0 till the end of the
projection period.
 The projected urbanization level for Melaka state till 2050 is given in Table
xx:

Table xx - Projected Urbanization Level in Melaka, 2000-2050

District/Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Alor Gajah 45 53 65 75 85 90

Jasin 18 25 35 45 55 65

Melaka Tengah 89 90 93 95 100 100

Ref: Review of National Water Resources Study (2000-2050)

Assumptions for Population Projection in the Current Study

 Base population for projection: Population and Housing Census 2010;

 The low variant assumed foreign workers will not exceed 5% of the State
labour force by 2050;
 The medium variant assumed that foreign workers will constitute about
10% of the State labour force by 2050;
 The high variant assumed that foreign workers will make up about 15%
of the State labour force by 2050. (Note: the 11th Malaysia Plan (2016-
2020) envisaged a limit on the employment of low-skilled migrant workers
at 15% of the total labour force in Malaysia by 2020.)
 TFR: Based on the most recent data collected, the projected TFR for
Melaka State compared to the national TFR (as projected in the review
study) is shown in Table xx.
 The urbanization level for Melaka State as projected in the review study
is adopted in the current study.

Table xx – Comparison of Projected Total Fertility Rate between Malaysia and

Melaka State (2000 – 2050)
Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Malaysia 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0

Melaka 3.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Projection of Labour Force in Relation to Industrial Water Demand

The labour force that will be used as input data for industrial water demand
projection requires a separate projection. In the review study, the projection
was based on labour force data in the 2% sample tape of the 2000 Population
and Housing Census. As similar data is not available in the Census 2010, the
projection under the current study is based on work force employed in the
manufacturing sector (1982-2016) from the Department of Statistics Malaysia a
shown in Table xx.

Table xx – Employment in Manufacturing Sector in Melaka (1982-2016)

Year No. of Persons Employed
1982 31587
1983 32876
1984 31262
1985 31912
1986 32253
1987 33360
1988 37250
1989 44030
1990 44863
1992 59985
1993 55918
1995 63509
1996 65291
1997 69277
1998 65947
1999 72652
2000 78206
2001 81104
2002 60592
2003 78820
2004 68600
2005 67600
2006 81300
2007 77400
2008 67800
2009 58600
2010 76900
2011 77200
2012 75900
2013 87900
2014 95800
2015 94400
2016 93800