Actual vs.

Forecast
1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

Actual Value
0.8
Value

Seasonalized Forecast

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
1 4 7 1 0 1 3 1 6 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 4 6 4 9 5 2 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 7 9 8 2 8 5
d d d
ri o ri o ri o i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od i od
Pe Pe Pe Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per

Period
Problem Title
Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition
7 seasons Enter
Enter the
the actual
actual values
values in
in the
the cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the time
time period
period numbers!
numbers!

Input Data Seasonal Index Computation Forecast Error analysis

Unseasonal
Actual Time Seasonal Seasonal Unseasonal ized
Period value (Y) period (X) Centered average ratio index ized value Forecast
Period 1 0.9722222 1 0.867 1.121 1.154
Period 2 1.0069444 2 0.919 1.096 1.152
Period 3 1.1922612 3 0.978 1.219 1.151
Period 4 1.3098739 4 1.206 1.086 1.025 1.278 1.150
Period 5 1.4986486 5 1.206 1.243 1.064 1.409 1.149
Period 6 1.3182819 6 1.188 1.110 1.105 1.193 1.148
Period 7 1.1441648 7 1.188 0.963 1.042 1.098 1.147
Period 8 0.9115044 8 1.127 0.808 0.867 1.051 1.145
Period 9 0.9400253 9 1.127 0.834 0.919 1.023 1.144
Period 10 1.0653983 10 1.059 1.006 0.978 1.089 1.143
Period 11 1.0142518 11 1.059 0.958 1.025 0.990 1.142
Period 12 1.116875 12 1.086 1.029 1.064 1.050 1.141
Period 13 1.2200557 13 1.086 1.124 1.105 1.104 1.140
Period 14 1.1882845 14 1.134 1.048 1.042 1.141 1.138
Period 15 1.0563574 15 1.134 0.932 0.867 1.218 1.137
Period 16 1.1308691 16 1.225 0.923 0.919 1.231 1.136
Period 17 1.2095491 17 1.225 0.987 0.978 1.236 1.135
Period 18 1.2927889 18 1.254 1.031 1.025 1.262 1.134
Period 19 1.477707 19 1.254 1.178 1.064 1.389 1.133
Period 20 1.4943439 20 1.207 1.238 1.105 1.352 1.131
Period 21 1.1171103 21 1.207 0.925 1.042 1.072 1.130
Period 22 0.9522546 22 1.117 0.852 0.867 1.098 1.129
Period 23 0.9067753 23 1.117 0.811 0.919 0.987 1.128
Period 24 0.9177468 24 0.957 0.959 0.978 0.938 1.127
Period 25 0.9563342 25 0.957 0.999 1.025 0.933 1.125
Period 26 0.9352701 26 0.920 1.017 1.064 0.879 1.124
Period 27 0.9148093 27 0.920 0.994 1.105 0.828 1.123
Period 28 0.8932749 28 0.928 0.963 1.042 0.857 1.122
Period 29 0.9152626 29 0.928 0.986 0.867 1.055 1.121
Period 30 0.9847597 30 0.950 1.036 0.919 1.072 1.120
Period 31 0.8964781 31 0.950 0.943 0.978 0.916 1.118
Period 32 0.984127 32 1.042 0.945 1.025 0.961 1.117
Period 33 1.0628604 33 1.042 1.020 1.064 0.999 1.116
Period 34 1.1761566 34 1.068 1.101 1.105 1.064 1.115
Period 35 1.2727273 35 1.068 1.192 1.042 1.222 1.114
Period 36 0.9572271 36 1.188 0.806 0.867 1.104 1.113
Period 37 1.1273585 37 1.188 0.949 0.919 1.227 1.111
Period 38 1.2795031 38 1.300 0.984 0.978 1.308 1.110
Period 39 1.4367437 39 1.300 1.105 1.025 1.402 1.109
Period 40 1.4736842 40 1.327 1.110 1.064 1.385 1.108
Period 41 1.5512996 41 1.327 1.169 1.105 1.404 1.107
Period 42 1.3394707 42 1.321 1.014 1.042 1.286 1.106
Period 43 1.0830904 43 1.321 0.820 0.867 1.249 1.104
Period 44 1.1447368 44 1.230 0.931 0.919 1.246 1.103
Period 45 1.2167832 45 1.230 0.989 0.978 1.244 1.102
Period 46 1.2048276 46 1.156 1.043 1.025 1.176 1.101
Period 47 1.0701553 47 1.156 0.926 1.064 1.006 1.100
Period 48 1.2052314 48 1.137 1.060 1.105 1.091 1.099
Period 49 1.1638456 49 1.137 1.023 1.042 1.117 1.097
Period 50 0.9600222 50 1.085 0.885 0.867 1.107 1.096
Period 51 1.1414234 51 1.085 1.052 0.919 1.242 1.095
Period 52 1.0479751 52 1.056 0.992 0.978 1.071 1.094
Period 53 1.003915 53 1.056 0.950 1.025 0.980 1.093
Period 54 0.9880174 54 1.066 0.927 1.064 0.929 1.092
Period 55 1.0897909 55 1.066 1.023 1.105 0.986 1.090
Period 56 1.2745098 56 1.044 1.221 1.042 1.223 1.089
Period 57 0.9140143 57 1.044 0.876 0.867 1.054 1.088
Period 58 0.925 58 1.081 0.856 0.919 1.007 1.087
Period 59 1.1113256 59 1.081 1.028 0.978 1.136 1.086
Period 60 1.1351698 60 1.037 1.094 1.025 1.108 1.085
Period 61 1.1183621 61 1.037 1.078 1.064 1.051 1.083
Period 62 1.0966123 62 1.033 1.061 1.105 0.992 1.082
Period 63 0.9619438 63 1.033 0.931 1.042 0.923 1.081
Period 64 0.846117 64 1.029 0.822 0.867 0.976 1.080
Period 65 0.9625551 65 1.029 0.935 0.919 1.048 1.079
Period 66 1.0761391 66 1.075 1.001 0.978 1.100 1.078
Period 67 1.1444216 67 1.075 1.065 1.025 1.117 1.076
Period 68 1.3096397 68 1.105 1.185 1.064 1.231 1.075
Period 69 1.2216891 69 1.105 1.105 1.105 1.106 1.074
Period 70 1.10957 70 1.084 1.023 1.042 1.065 1.073
Period 71 0.9134467 71 1.084 0.842 0.867 1.053 1.072
Period 72 0.9221984 72 1.049 0.879 0.919 1.004 1.070
Period 73 0.9701162 73 1.049 0.925 0.978 0.992 1.069
Period 74 1.0737656 74 1.041 1.031 1.025 1.048 1.068
Period 75 1.1330502 75 1.041 1.088 1.064 1.065 1.067
Period 76 1.2053422 76 1.047 1.152 1.105 1.091 1.066
Period 77 1.0697954 77 1.047 1.022 1.042 1.027 1.065
Period 78 0.9421193 78 1.034 0.911 0.867 1.086 1.063
Period 79 0.9317227 79 1.034 0.901 0.919 1.014 1.062
Period 80 0.9577143 80 1.011 0.947 0.978 0.979 1.061
Period 81 0.9988745 81 1.011 0.988 1.025 0.975 1.060
Period 82 1.0062929 82 1.044 0.964 1.064 0.946 1.059
Period 83 1.1727468 83 1.044 1.123 1.105 1.061 1.058
Period 84 1.255934 84 1.069 1.175 1.042 1.206 1.056
Period 85 0.9871959 85 0.867 1.138 1.055
Period 86 0.9840637 86 0.919 1.071 1.054
Period 87 1.0754986 87 0.978 1.099 1.053

Intercept 1.155
Slope -0.001

Seasonal Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7
1.086 1.243 1.110 0.963
0.808 0.834 1.006 0.958 1.029 1.124 1.048
0.932 0.923 0.987 1.031 1.178 1.238 0.925
0.852 0.811 0.959 0.999 1.017 0.994 0.963
0.986 1.036 0.943 0.945 1.020 1.101 1.192
 0.806 0.949 0.984 1.105 1.110 1.169 1.014
0.820 0.931 0.989 1.043 0.926 1.060 1.023
0.885 1.052 0.992 0.950 0.927 1.023 1.221
0.876 0.856 1.028 1.094 1.078 1.061 0.931
0.822 0.935 1.001 1.065 1.185 1.105 1.023
0.842 0.879 0.925 1.031 1.088 1.152 1.022
0.911 0.901 0.947 0.988 0.964 1.123 1.175

Average 0.867 0.919 0.978 1.025 1.064 1.105 1.042

Forecasts for future periods

Unseasonal
ized Seasonal
Period forecast index Seasonalized forecast
88.000 1.052 1.025 1.078
89.000 1.051 1.064 1.118
90.000 1.049 1.105 1.160
91.000 1.048 1.042 1.092
92.000 1.047 0.867 0.908
93.000 1.046 0.919 0.961
94.000 1.045 0.978 1.022
 ers!
bers!

Forecast Error analysis

Seasonalize Absolute Squared Absolute %

d Forecast Error error error error
1.001 -0.028 0.028 0.001 2.91%
1.059 -0.052 0.052 0.003 5.16%
1.126 0.066 0.066 0.004 5.53%
1.178 0.132 0.132 0.017 10.04%
1.222 0.277 0.277 0.076 18.45%
1.268 0.050 0.050 0.003 3.80%
1.194 -0.050 0.050 0.003 4.39%
0.993 -0.082 0.082 0.007 8.99%
1.051 -0.111 0.111 0.012 11.85%
1.118 -0.053 0.053 0.003 4.97%
1.170 -0.156 0.156 0.024 15.35%
1.213 -0.096 0.096 0.009 8.64%
1.259 -0.039 0.039 0.002 3.20%
1.186 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.20%
0.986 0.070 0.070 0.005 6.63%
1.044 0.087 0.087 0.008 7.69%
1.110 0.099 0.099 0.010 8.20%
1.162 0.131 0.131 0.017 10.15%
1.205 0.273 0.273 0.075 18.48%
1.250 0.244 0.244 0.060 16.35%
1.177 -0.060 0.060 0.004 5.39%
0.979 -0.027 0.027 0.001 2.83%
1.036 -0.130 0.130 0.017 14.29%
1.102 -0.185 0.185 0.034 20.11%
1.153 -0.197 0.197 0.039 20.58%
1.196 -0.261 0.261 0.068 27.87%
1.241 -0.326 0.326 0.106 35.66%
1.169 -0.276 0.276 0.076 30.84%
0.972 -0.057 0.057 0.003 6.21%
1.029 -0.044 0.044 0.002 4.47%
1.094 -0.198 0.198 0.039 22.07%
1.145 -0.161 0.161 0.026 16.32%
1.187 -0.124 0.124 0.015 11.70%
1.232 -0.056 0.056 0.003 4.74%
1.160 0.112 0.112 0.013 8.84%
0.965 -0.008 0.008 0.000 0.81%
1.021 0.106 0.106 0.011 9.41%
1.086 0.193 0.193 0.037 15.10%
1.136 0.300 0.300 0.090 20.91%
1.179 0.295 0.295 0.087 20.03%
1.223 0.328 0.328 0.108 21.17%
1.152 0.188 0.188 0.035 14.02%
0.958 0.125 0.125 0.016 11.56%
1.014 0.131 0.131 0.017 11.44%
1.078 0.139 0.139 0.019 11.38%
 1.128 0.077 0.077 0.006 6.38%
1.170 -0.100 0.100 0.010 9.31%
1.214 -0.009 0.009 0.000 0.71%
1.143 0.021 0.021 0.000 1.77%
0.951 0.009 0.009 0.000 0.96%
1.006 0.135 0.135 0.018 11.84%
1.070 -0.022 0.022 0.000 2.13%
1.120 -0.116 0.116 0.013 11.52%
1.161 -0.173 0.173 0.030 17.52%
1.205 -0.115 0.115 0.013 10.55%
1.135 0.140 0.140 0.020 10.97%
0.944 -0.030 0.030 0.001 3.25%
0.999 -0.074 0.074 0.005 7.97%
1.062 0.049 0.049 0.002 4.42%
1.111 0.024 0.024 0.001 2.11%
1.152 -0.034 0.034 0.001 3.04%
1.196 -0.099 0.099 0.010 9.04%
1.126 -0.164 0.164 0.027 17.07%
0.937 -0.090 0.090 0.008 10.69%
0.991 -0.029 0.029 0.001 2.97%
1.054 0.022 0.022 0.000 2.04%
1.103 0.042 0.042 0.002 3.64%
1.144 0.166 0.166 0.028 12.67%
1.187 0.035 0.035 0.001 2.86%
1.118 -0.008 0.008 0.000 0.72%
0.929 -0.016 0.016 0.000 1.76%
0.984 -0.061 0.061 0.004 6.66%
1.046 -0.076 0.076 0.006 7.84%
1.094 -0.021 0.021 0.000 1.92%
1.135 -0.002 0.002 0.000 0.17%
1.178 0.028 0.028 0.001 2.30%
1.109 -0.039 0.039 0.002 3.67%
0.922 0.020 0.020 0.000 2.09%
0.976 -0.044 0.044 0.002 4.76%
1.038 -0.080 0.080 0.006 8.40%
1.086 -0.087 0.087 0.008 8.72%
1.126 -0.120 0.120 0.014 11.92%
1.169 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.35%
1.101 0.155 0.155 0.024 12.37%
0.915 0.072 0.072 0.005 7.28%
0.969 0.015 0.015 0.000 1.57%
1.030 0.045 0.045 0.002 4.21%
Average 0.101 0.017 9.09%
MAD MSE MAPE
0.9722222
1.0069444
1.1922612
1.3098739
1.4986486
1.3182819
1.1441648
0.9115044
0.9400253
1.0653983
1.0142518
1.116875
1.2200557
1.1882845
1.0563574
1.1308691
1.2095491
1.2927889
1.477707
1.4943439
1.1171103
0.9522546
0.9067753
0.9177468
0.9563342
0.9352701
0.9148093
0.8932749
0.9152626
0.9847597
0.8964781
0.984127
1.0628604
1.1761566
1.2727273
0.9572271
1.1273585
1.2795031
1.4367437
1.4736842
1.5512996
1.3394707
1.0830904
1.1447368
1.2167832
1.2048276
1.0701553
1.2052314
1.1638456
0.9600222
1.1414234
1.0479751
1.003915
0.9880174
1.0897909
1.2745098
0.9140143
0.925
1.1113256
1.1351698
1.1183621
1.0966123
0.9619438
0.846117
0.9625551
1.0761391
1.1444216
1.3096397
1.2216891
1.10957
0.9134467
0.9221984
0.9701162
1.0737656
1.1330502
1.2053422
1.0697954
0.9421193
0.9317227
0.9577143
0.9988745
1.0062929
1.1727468
1.255934
0.9871959
0.9840637
1.0754986
 Moving Average
1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5 Actual value

Value

Forecast

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85

Time
Problem Title
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Absolute %
Period Actual value Forecast Error Absolute error Squared error error
Period 1 0.000
Period 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 4 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 11 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 12 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 13 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 14 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 15 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 22 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 23 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 24 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 25 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 29 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 30 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 31 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 32 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 33 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 34 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 35 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 36 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 37 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 38 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 39 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 40 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 41 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 42 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 43 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 44 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 45 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 46 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 47 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 48 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 49 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 50 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 51 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 52 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 53 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 54 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 55 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 56 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 57 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 58 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 59 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 60 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 61 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 62 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 63 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 64 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 65 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 66 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 67 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 68 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 69 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 70 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 71 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 72 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 73 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 74 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 75 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 76 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 77 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 78 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 79 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 80 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 81 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 82 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 83 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 84 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 85 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 86 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Period 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Average 0.000 0.000 #DIV/0!
Alpha MAD MSE MAPE

Next period 0.000