Send questions and comments to jimthomas@yahoo.

com

DISCLAIMER: This spreadsheet represents my personal interpretation of (mostly) NAIC

methodology. Some concepts are modified from their NAIC counterparts. Some are not NAIC
concepts at all. Use your own judgment before applying anything shown here in the real
world.

Spreadsheet
Notes Revised:
04/18/10

General
1) This spreadsheet works with Excel 2000 or later.
2) If you can’t see the worksheet tabs along the bottom of the Excel windows, check:
in Excel 2003 and earlier, that "Sheet tabs" is checked at Tools | Options | View;
in Excel 2007, http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HA102787411033.aspx
3) Some results in this spreadsheet depend on information downloaded from ManifestInvesting.com.
This spreadsheet only uses information that's available from that web site without a subscription.
4) This spreadsheet must be closed before Toolkit can be used with the same database.
If you try to use Toolkit without closing the spreadsheet Toolkit will give several error messages.
Cancel all the messages and then close the spreadsheet before trying again.
Once the spreadsheet has been closed, Toolkit will work normally.
5) Toolkit must be closed before you can "refresh" the data from the same database used by Toolkit.
6) Many cells have explanatory comments attached. This is indicated by a small red triangle in the
upper right corner of the cell. Placing the mouse pointer over such a cell will display the comment.
7) Printing some sheets does not print all the visible information. Some less important columns are
excluded from the "print area" so the remaining columns can be printed in a larger font.

Usage
1) The amount of cash held in your portfolio must be entered manually. This goes on the TK Portfolio
sheet (see below). SSG and portfolio holdings information is imported from Toolkit.
2) Use the "Locate Toolkit Database" to tell the spreadsheet where the Toolkit database file (TK.mdb)
is on your computer. The location currently being used is shown just above that button.
When Toolkit is running, the location of the current database is shown at the top of the Toolkit
window on the "title bar". That is the location you need to direct the spreadsheet to.
3) Use the "Refresh Toolkit Data" button after you've changed data in Toolkit to load the changed
data into the spreadsheet.

Info sheet
1) This is for stock information that isn't available from Toolkit. It is intended to hold information for
all stocks held in any Toolkit portfolio (not just the stocks in a single portfolio).
2) Enter information manually ONLY in the blue shaded cells (or in the VL Date column).
ManifestInvesting.com information is updated using the appropriate button on the Diversification sheet.
2) As you add rows to this table, don't forget to copy the formulas in the columns past "VL Date" into
the new rows.
3) The Sales and EPS projections at the time of purchase and the purchase date are used to
produce "time or purchase" growth projection lines on the PERT-A sheet's "Visual Analysis" chart.
4) "Current VL Date" is computed from "VL Issue". It's the date of the most recent VL Report.
"VL Date" will be highlighted if it's older than "Current VL Date".
5) The "VL Issue" comes from the "VL" sheet automatically. The VL sheet should be updated
occasionally (by following the instructions at the top of that sheet).

Readme 09/27/2010
TK Portfolio sheet
1) The amount of cash held in each portfolio can be entered here. The appropriate value for the
selected portfolio will be used automatically on the Diversification sheet.
2) These values are not erased if you direct the spreadsheet to a different Toolkit database, even
though the values entered may no longer be appropriate. Don't forget to change them, if needed.

Diversification sheet
1) Quality Rank and miPAR come from ManifestInvesting.com
2) miPAR is Mark Robertson's Projected Annual Return.
3) tkPAR is Toolkit's Projected Average Return.
4) "Min. Sales Growth" is computed from company size in terms of sales. 15% is the minimum for
"small" companies and 7% is the minimum for "large" companies. The minimum for medium
companies is computed on a logarithmic scale between these limits.
Thanks to the NAIC Florida Space Coast Chapter for this idea. www.naicspace.org

PERT Defense sheet

1) In the % Growth Rate columns for PTP and EPS a percentage change is not calculated if one
value is a loss and the other value is a profit, or either value is zero (because a percentage change
would be misleading). In such a situation, "loss", "profit" or "nmf" is shown instead.

PERT-A sheet
1) Use the "spinner" control (two arrows) to select which stock to evaluate.
2) The PERT-A (lower) chart can be hidden to show the numeric data, using the appropriate button.

PERT Offense sheet

1) Future Relative Value is calculated differently than RV and Projected RV in Toolkit. The differences
are based on a discussion with Ralph Seger at CompuFest 2003.
2) Risk Ratio (ala Take $tock) is used instead of US/DS ratio. It's a different representation of the
same concept. A 3-to-1 US/DS ratio is equivalent to a 25% Risk Ratio. A 1-to-1 US/DS ratio is
equivalent to a 50% Risk Ratio.
3) Buy Below is the highest price meeting both the risk requirement (Risk Ratio < 25%, or US/DS > 3)
and the return requirement (Total Return > 14.9% over 5 years). Different requirements can be
specified in the Buy Requirements area above the main table.
4) Note in the "Next 12 mo. EPS" column that each value is a hyperlink to analyst EPS estimates.
Values in bold were manually entered into Toolkit.

Readme 09/27/2010
When adding new rows, copy / paste from an existing row to preserve the formatting and formulas.
One way to do this is to select all of the last row (Shift+Space anywhere in the last row) and several rows below it (Shift+DownArrow) and then press Ctrl+D.

┌─── Manual entries only in these columns ──┐ ┌─ Do not make manual entries in these columns ─►
Forecast at Time of
From Value Line
Purchase
Purchase Sales Current VL VL
Ticker EPS Growth VL Date
Date Growth Date Issue
AFL ###
BRLI ###
CAH ###
CL ###
CMG ###
COH ###
EBIX ###
EXPD ###
FDS ###
IIVI ###
JKHY ###
JNJ ###
LWAY ###
MDT ###
MSFT ###
PEP ###
QSII ###
STRA ###
SYK ###
TNDM ###
VAR ###
WAG ###

AAPL ###
COH ###
EXPD ###
FAST ###
JKHY ###
JNJ ###
KSS ###
ORCL ###
PG ###
WAG ###
WFC ###
ZMH ###

Info 09/27/2010
 Portfolio
Toolkit Portfolio Names
Cash
mi Challenge Club $3,375
mi Tin Cup $119
Roster of Quality (locked)
Watch

TK Portfolio
 DIVERSIFICATION BY SIZE (Sales) Toolkit Portfolio Name
Current Five Year Future
Limit Size # Held $ Value % Value $ Value % Value
Cash $3,375 2.7% $3,375 1.2% 2 -0.03
$0 Small 7 $36,544 29.1% $82,347 29.3% 0.37
$600 Medium 6 $31,101 24.8% $66,401 23.6%
$6,000 Large 9 $54,516 43.4% $129,233 45.9%
Total 22 $125,535 100.0% $281,356 100.0% F:\Investing\NAIC\TK4Link\TKPortfolio_mi_Example.mdb

DIVERSIFICATION BY SECTOR (GICS)

Current Five Year Future
Sector # Held $ Value % Value $ Value % Value
Cash $3,375 2.7% $3,375 1.2%
Unclassified 22 $122,160 97.3% $277,981 98.8%
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology See MI Dashboard
Materials
Telecommunication Services
Utilities
Total 22 $125,535 100.0% $281,356 100.0% Company Forecasts from ...
ManifestInvesting.com
Projected Portfolio 5 Yr Compound Price Appreciation Rate: 17.9% Toolkit SSG
#N/A
Current Five Year Future #N/A

Forecast Min. ttm Sales Quality Current Last Qtr End

Shares Name Ticker $ Value % Value $ Value % Value Quality Rank
tkPAR Size
Growth Growth (millions) Rating Price Date

200.0 AFLAC INC AFL $10,820 8.9% $18,300 6.6% #N/A 8.4% 8.0% 7.0% $18,237.0 Large S&P: A $54.10 12/31/09
30.0 STRAYER EDUCATION INC STRA $7,269 6.0% $17,982 6.5% #N/A 15.8% 20.0% 15.0% $512.0 Small S&P: A $242.30 12/31/09
100.0 FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMSFDSINC $7,262 5.9% $13,750 4.9% #N/A 8.7% 10.0% 14.9% $622.4 Medium S&P: A $72.62 02/28/10
275.0 HENRY (JACK) & ASSOCIATES
JKHY $6,735 5.5% $16,252 5.8% #N/A 15.9% 15.0% 14.2% $765.5 Medium S&P: A+ $24.49 12/31/09
150.0 MEDTRONIC INC MDT $6,719 5.5% $17,385 6.3% #N/A 18.3% 8.0% 7.0% $15,450.0 Large S&P: A- $44.79 01/31/10
100.0 PEPSICO INC PEP $6,656 5.4% $13,140 4.7% #N/A 14.4% 8.0% 7.0% $43,232.0 Large S&P: A+ $66.56 12/31/09
115.0 Stryker Corp SYK $6,514 5.3% $20,458 7.4% #N/A 21.5% 15.0% 7.0% $6,723.1 Large S&P: A+ $56.64 12/31/09
100.0 QUALITY SYSTEMS INC QSII $6,103 5.0% $10,920 3.9% #N/A 11.1% 22.0% 15.0% $279.1 Small S&P: B $61.03 12/31/09
360.0 EBIX INC EBIX $6,034 4.9% $15,300 5.5% #N/A 11.4% 22.0% 15.0% $97.7 Small S&P: B $16.76 12/31/09
200.0 Microsoft MSFT $5,918 4.8% $14,480 5.2% #N/A 17.6% 12.0% 7.0% $58,689.0 Large S&P: B+ $29.59 12/31/09
175.0 II-VI INC IIVI $5,612 4.6% $8,715 3.1% #N/A 2.8% 18.0% 15.0% $264.5 Small S&P: B $32.07 12/31/09
100.0 VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS VAR
INC $5,330 4.4% $11,800 4.2% #N/A 11.7% 9.0% 10.4% $2,246.3 Medium S&P: B+ $53.30 12/31/09
150.0 Walgreen Co WAG $5,179 4.2% $17,595 6.3% #N/A 25.6% 13.4% 7.0% $64,752.0 Large S&P: A+ $34.53 11/30/09
75.0 Johnson and Johnson JNJ $4,883 4.0% $11,400 4.1% #N/A 18.1% 10.0% 7.0% $61,897.0 Large S&P: A+ $65.11 12/31/09
125.0 COACH INC COH $4,731 3.9% $12,813 4.6% #N/A 13.6% 11.0% 9.0% $3,344.1 Medium S&P: B+ $37.85 12/31/09
100.0 BIO REFERENCE LABS BRLI $4,385 3.6% $10,540 3.8% #N/A 10.6% 19.0% 15.0% $386.2 Small S&P: B+ $43.85 01/31/10
50.0 COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO CL $4,242 3.5% $7,425 2.7% #N/A 11.3% 6.0% 7.0% $15,327.0 Large S&P: A+ $84.84 12/31/09
100.0 Expeditors Int'l WA EXPD $3,861 3.2% $6,690 2.4% #N/A 8.4% 15.0% 8.3% $4,092.3 Medium S&P: A+ $38.61 12/31/09
200.0 NEUTRAL TANDEM INC TNDM $3,586 2.9% $14,600 5.3% #N/A 26.4% 22.0% 15.0% $168.9 Small S&P: $17.93 12/31/09
100.0 CARDINAL HEALTH INC CAH $3,585 2.9% $9,050 3.3% #N/A 16.1% 6.0% 7.0% $101,657.9 Large S&P: A- $35.85 12/31/09
300.0 LIFEWAY FOODS INC LWAY $3,555 2.9% $4,290 1.5% #N/A 0.3% 21.0% 15.0% $54.2 Small S&P: B+ $11.85 09/30/09
28.0 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
CMG $3,182 2.6% $5,096 1.8% #N/A 4.0% 13.0% 11.8% $1,518.4 Medium S&P: $113.63 12/31/09
$122,160 100.0% $277,981 100.0% #N/A 13.4% 13.5% 10.0%

Diversification 09/27/2010
 Size (Sales) Diversification Sector Diversification
Cash 2.7% Cash 2.7%

Small 29.1%

Large 43.4%

Medium 24.8%
Unclassified 97.3%

Current Stock Value Diversification Five Year Future Stock Value Diversification
LWAY 3% CMG 3% AFL 9% CMG 2% AFL 7%
CAH 3% LWAY 2%
CAH 3%
TNDM 3% TNDM 5% STRA 6%
STRA 6%
EXPD 3% EXPD 2%
CL 3% FDS 5%
CL 3%
FDS 6%
BRLI 4%
BRLI 4%
JKHY 6%

COH 4% JKHY 6% COH 5%

JNJ 4% JNJ 4% MDT 6%

MDT 5%

WAG 4%
WAG 6% PEP 5%
PEP 5%
VAR 4%
VAR 4% SYK 7%
IIVI 5% SYK 5%
IIVI 3%
MSFT 5%
EBIX 5%
QSII 5% MSFT 5% EBIX 6% QSII 4%

Charts 09/27/2010
Toolkit Portfolio Name Portfolio Management Workshop

HIGHLIGHT IF <
E s t. G r o w t h R a t e

% CHANGE Est. Growth Rate Quarterly SALES Qtryl PTP PTP as % of Sales Trailing 12 Mo EPS Quarterly EPS

Qtrly Current Year Ago Current Year Ago Current Year Ago Current Year Ago Current Year Ago
Shares Name Ticker Qtrly PTP ttm EPS Qtrly EPS Sales EPS
Sales Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter

175.0 II-VI INC IIVI -7.4% -18.6% -51.4% -14.3% 18.0% 18.0% $68.8 $74.3 $9.1 $11.2 13.2% 15.0% $0.87 $1.79 $0.24 $0.28
100.0 Expeditors Int'l WA EXPD -4.6% -11.8% -19.0% -11.1% 15.0% 15.0% $1,246.9 $1,307.4 $112.6 $127.6 9.0% 9.8% $1.11 $1.37 $0.32 $0.36
125.0 COACH INC COH 10.9% 9.2% -3.4% 11.9% 11.0% 15.0% $1,065.0 $960.3 $380.9 $348.9 35.8% 36.3% $2.00 $2.07 $0.75 $0.67
200.0 Microsoft MSFT 14.4% 58.6% -1.6% 59.6% 12.0% 12.0% $19,022.0 $16,629.0 $8,942.0 $5,638.0 47.0% 33.9% $1.85 $1.88 $0.75 $0.47
100.0 QUALITY SYSTEMS INC QSII 14.5% 2.2% -0.6% 0.0% 22.0% 20.0% $75.0 $65.5 $20.9 $20.5 27.9% 31.3% $1.63 $1.64 $0.46 $0.46
75.0 Johnson and Johnson JNJ 9.0% 28.5% 3.2% 29.1% 10.0% 12.0% $16,551.0 $15,182.0 $3,404.0 $2,650.0 20.6% 17.5% $4.54 $4.40 $1.02 $0.79
115.0 Stryker Corp SYK 6.8% 11.0% 4.2% 10.8% 15.0% 15.0% $1,834.2 $1,718.2 $460.6 $415.0 25.1% 24.2% $2.95 $2.83 $0.82 $0.74
150.0 MEDTRONIC INC MDT 10.2% 10.0% 4.6% 10.3% 8.0% 10.0% $3,850.0 $3,494.0 $1,063.0 $966.0 27.6% 27.6% $2.94 $2.81 $0.75 $0.68
275.0 HENRY (JACK) & ASSOCIATES
JKHY 10.9% 18.9% 8.5% 3.0% 15.0% 15.0% $210.9 $190.2 $49.0 $41.2 23.2% 21.7% $1.28 $1.18 $0.34 $0.33
150.0 Walgreen Co WAG 9.5% 22.5% 8.6% 23.8% 13.4% 13.0% $16,364.0 $14,947.0 $818.0 $668.0 5.0% 4.5% $2.27 $2.09 $0.52 $0.42
100.0 FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMSFDS INC 0.5% 4.6% 9.4% 5.6% 10.0% 10.0% $157.3 $156.5 $54.6 $52.2 34.7% 33.4% $3.02 $2.76 $0.75 $0.71
100.0 PEPSICO INC PEP 4.5% 29.3% 10.1% 27.8% 8.0% 10.0% $13,297.0 $12,729.0 $2,020.0 $1,562.0 15.2% 12.3% $3.81 $3.46 $0.92 $0.72
100.0 VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS VAR
INC 6.3% 18.7% 12.8% 12.5% 9.0% 9.0% $540.9 $508.7 $118.8 $100.1 22.0% 19.7% $2.73 $2.42 $0.63 $0.56
100.0 CARDINAL HEALTH INC CAH 3.3% 16.6% 13.3% 14.0% 6.0% 6.0% $24,919.7 $24,117.8 $335.6 $287.9 1.3% 1.2% $3.40 $3.00 $0.57 $0.50
50.0 COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO CL 11.4% 23.3% 13.4% 23.0% 6.0% 9.0% $4,081.0 $3,664.0 $989.0 $802.0 24.2% 21.9% $4.39 $3.87 $1.23 $1.00
200.0 AFLAC INC AFL 7.9% 14.0% 19.5% 14.3% 8.0% 11.0% $4,597.0 $4,260.0 $342.0 $300.0 7.4% 7.0% $3.12 $2.61 $0.48 $0.42
30.0 STRAYER EDUCATION INC STRA 28.8% 30.9% 33.8% 35.7% 20.0% 20.0% $147.2 $114.3 $52.7 $40.2 35.8% 35.2% $7.60 $5.68 $2.32 $1.71
360.0 EBIX INC EBIX 55.4% 49.0% 35.4% 39.5% 22.0% 18.0% $31.3 $20.1 $12.2 $8.2 38.9% 40.6% $1.03 $0.76 $0.31 $0.22
100.0 BIO REFERENCE LABS BRLI 31.1% 57.3% 35.9% 45.0% 19.0% 19.0% $99.3 $75.7 $7.2 $4.6 7.3% 6.0% $1.59 $1.17 $0.29 $0.20
200.0 NEUTRAL TANDEM INC TNDM 28.0% 34.9% 65.8% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% $44.7 $34.9 $16.3 $12.1 36.5% 34.6% $1.21 $0.73 $0.31 $0.25
28.0 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
CMG 13.0% 78.3% 66.0% 86.8% 13.0% 13.0% $387.5 $343.1 $50.6 $28.4 13.1% 8.3% $3.95 $2.38 $0.99 $0.53
300.0 LIFEWAY FOODS INC LWAY 37.3% 167.8% 75.0% 60.0% 21.0% 14.0% $15.4 $11.2 $3.0 $1.1 19.5% 10.0% $0.28 $0.16 $0.08 $0.05

Goal: Identify stocks starting to experience longer term problems and sell before they cause
too much damage to your portfolio. There is a certain amount of urgency to act.

Questions:
1) Is Sales growth rate below your est. Sales growth rate?
2) Is PTP growth rate below your est. EPS growth rate?
3) Is EPS growth rate (especially for ttm EPS) below your est. EPS growth rate?

If you answer "yes" to any of those (look for highlighted cells):

1) Look at PERT-A ttm trends to evaluate whether the issues may be only transitory.
2) Read the Portfolio Management Workshop (link above) for help evaluating the situation.
3) If you decide the issues are not transitory, it may be time to sell first and find a
replacement later.
4) If you find many companies are highlighted (a "sea of pink"), you should consider
whether there are economic issues of wide scope causing a downturn in many
companies and industries. Here again, an evaluation as to whether or not the
issues are short-term is required.

PERT Defense 09/27/2010

 IIVI II-VI INC
Industry: Electrical
Components & Equi
Date of Data: 03/19/10
Last Update: 03/20/10 SSG Chart
Current Original
Proj. Sales Growth 18.0% 266.4
320.0 295.7
18.0% 235.3
Proj. EPS Growth 196.4
152.7 160.0
Align Price and EPS at PE = 10 124.8 129.8 TRUE 126.4
115.1 117.5
Align latest Price bar and EPS: ✘ Scaling: 1.01 2.49 12.2 94.60.5
74.7 79.2
High 60.9
Annual Sales PTP EPS Low Price Tax Rate
Price 40.0
Net Profit 36.3 Sales PTP EPS Hi Price Lo Price PTP
24.7 38.2 27.3
2009 292.2 47.1 1.270 48.3 14.1 18.8% 295.7 117.5 15.5 24.0 7.0 47.14 3
20.0
2008 316.2 64.2 1.640 41.2 24.0 22.1% 50.0 320.0 160.0 20.0 20.5 15.2 11.9 64.1715.5 7
2007 263.2 50.7 1.250 36.4 16.8 24.1% 37.9 266.4 126.4 15.2
10.1 18.1
10.2 8.4 50.68 11
2006 232.5 37.9 0.840 22.2 14.9 33.8% 25.1 235.3 94.6 7.2 10.2 11.0 7.4 37.92 15
2005 194.0 31.8 0.830 22.3 13.1 26.9% 24.8 196.4 4.9 79.2 10.1 11.1 6.5 31.78 19
4.1
2004 150.8 24.4 0.590 15.4 9.5 28.9% 3.4 17.4 3.5
152.7 60.9 7.2 7.6 4.7 24.42 23
2003 128.2 16.0 0.405 12.1 5.6 27.4% 11.7 129.8 40.0 4.9 6.0 2.8 16.05 27
2002 113.7 11.0 0.285 9.8 5.3 25.6% 8.2 115.1 27.3 3.5 4.8 2.6 10.96 31
2001 123.3 14.6 0.335 15.0 5.3 34.8% 9.5 124.8 36.3 4.1 7.4 2.6 Err:502 35
2000 73.8 9.9 0.280 18.5 2.3 25.6% 2000 7.42001 2002
74.7 200324.7 2004 2005
3.4 2006
9.2 2007 1.12008Err:502200939

29 TTM Percent Change PTP % of

PTP % of
Trailing 12 Months Q u a r t e r l y
Qtrly Sales PTP EPS Margin Sales Sales PTP EPS Sales PTP EPS
% chg % chg % chg % chg
'10Q2 -21.0% -44.1% -51.4% -29.3% 13.5% 264.5 35.6 0.870 68.8 9.1 0.240
'10Q1 -18.9% -44.7% -51.6% -31.8% 14.0% 270.0 37.7 0.910 65.5 8.4 0.210
'09Q4 -7.6% -26.5% -22.6% -20.5% 16.1% 292.2 47.1 1.270 66.1 9.2 0.190
'09Q3 8.1% -6.0% 4.6% -13.0% 17.8% 318.0 56.5 1.580 64.1 8.9 0.230
'09Q2 20.4% 13.1% 27.9% -6.1% 19.0% 334.8 63.8 1.790 74.3 11.2 0.280
'09Q1 25.6% 25.4% 39.3% -0.1% 20.5% 332.9 68.1 1.880 87.8 17.8 0.570
'08Q4 24.2% 26.6% 29.1% 2.0% 20.3% 316.2 64.2 1.640 91.8 18.6 0.500
'08Q3 17.8% 26.2% 23.8% 7.2% 20.4% 294.2 60.1 1.510 81.0 16.2 0.440
'08Q2 13.8% 22.0% 22.8% 7.2% 20.3% 278.1 56.4 1.400 72.3 15.5 0.370
'08Q1 10.9% 37.1% 36.4% 23.6% 20.5% 265.0 54.3 1.350 71.1 13.9 0.330
'07Q4 9.5% 33.6% 35.1% 22.0% 19.9% 254.7 50.7 1.270 69.8 14.5 0.370
'07Q3 11.2% 34.9% 47.0% 21.3% 19.0% 249.8 47.6 1.220 64.8 12.5 0.330
'07Q2 11.8% 44.3% 48.1% 29.1% 18.9% 244.3 46.2 1.140 59.2 13.4 0.320
'07Q1 14.9% 21.6% 26.9% 5.8% 16.6% 238.9 39.6 0.990 60.8 10.2 0.250
'06Q4 19.8% 19.3% 22.1% -0.4% 16.3% 232.5 37.9 0.940 64.9 11.4 0.320
'06Q3 24.8% 15.8% 8.5% -7.2% 15.7% 224.6 35.3 0.830 59.4 11.2 0.250
'06Q2 31.8% 7.8% 4.8% -18.2% 14.7% 218.5 32.0 0.770 53.8 6.8 0.170
'06Q1 32.2% 18.6% 16.4% -10.3% 15.7% 207.9 32.6 0.780 54.4 8.5 0.200
'05Q4 28.6% 30.2% 31.6% 1.2% 16.4% 194.0 31.8 0.770 57.0 8.7 0.210
'05Q3 27.9% 36.3% 51.5% 6.5% 16.9% 180.0 30.5 0.765 53.3 8.0 0.190

PERT-A 09/27/2010
Toolkit Portfolio Name Portfolio Management Workshop

HIGHLIGHT IF ... BUY REQUIREMENTS

below 14.9% 5% 80 14.9% min. 5yr Total Return
or above 50% 150 25% max. Risk Ratio

Z Y R Q AB WX V S T S P E D AA
Future
5yr Total Risk Current Proj. EPS Proj. Hi Proj. Proj. Lo Leading 12 Next 12 Current Proj. Low
Shares Name Ticker Relative Buy Below Hi Price PEG ttm EPS
Return Ratio Price Growth Rate PE Avg. PE PE mo. PE mo. EPS Div. Yield Price
Value
200.0 NEUTRAL TANDEM INC TNDM 32.1% 2% 65.0 $30.9 $17.93 $72.2 0.62 20.0% 24.0 19.0 14.0 12.3 1.45200004577637
$1.21 0.00% $17.10
115.0 Stryker Corp SYK 25.3% 13% 70.8 $71.8 $56.64 $168.0 1.18 15.0% 30.0 25.0 20.0 17.7 3.20000004768372
$2.95 1.06% $39.74
150.0 Walgreen Co WAG 25.3% 13% 62.7 $43.5 $34.53 $100.0 1.21 13.0% 28.0 25.1 22.3 15.8 2.19000005722046
$2.27 1.59% $24.70
125.0 COACH INC COH 22.8% 23% 93.5 $39.5 $37.85 $102.5 1.10 15.0% 25.5 17.6 9.7 16.5 2.3 $2.00 0.79% $18.50
150.0 MEDTRONIC INC MDT 22.8% 23% 65.6 $47.0 $44.79 $115.9 1.38 10.0% 24.5 21.1 17.7 13.8 3.2340000629425
$2.94 1.83% $24.06
100.0 CARDINAL HEALTH INC CAH 22.3% 17% 61.6 $41.3 $35.85 $90.5 1.66 6.0% 19.9 16.1 12.4 9.9 3.60400010108948
$3.40 1.95% $24.87
30.0 STRAYER EDUCATION INC STRA 21.1% 28% 105.4 $229.4 $242.30 $599.4 1.33 20.0% 31.7 25.2 18.7 26.6 9.11999988555908
$7.60 1.24% $106.00
360.0 EBIX INC EBIX 20.4% 30% 112.7 $14.9 $16.76 $42.5 0.76 18.0% 18.0 12.2 6.4 13.7 1.21893999099731
$1.03 0.00% $5.71
100.0 BIO REFERENCE LABS BRLI 19.2% 21% 121.0 $46.8 $43.85 $105.4 1.22 19.0% 27.8 19.1 10.5 23.2 1.89210003972054
$1.59 0.00% $27.30
75.0 Johnson and Johnson JNJ 19.1% 11% 83.6 $76.7 $65.11 $137.0 1.18 12.0% 19.0 17.0 15.0 14.2 4.57999992370605
$4.54 3.01% $56.65
200.0 Microsoft MSFT 18.9% 19% 82.4 $32.4 $29.59 $65.3 1.32 12.0% 22.2 19.2 16.2 15.8 1.87000000476837
$1.85 1.76% $21.46
275.0 HENRY (JACK) & ASSOCIATES
JKHY 17.4% 23% 101.5 $25.2 $24.49 $51.1 1.29 15.0% 23.0 19.0 15.0 19.3 1.26999998092651
$1.28 1.55% $16.56
100.0 PEPSICO INC PEP 17.3% 26% 82.3 $65.7 $66.56 $131.4 1.59 10.0% 21.4 19.3 17.2 15.9 4.1909999370575
$3.81 2.70% $43.78
100.0 VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS VAR
INC 17.2% 14% 81.0 $59.0 $53.30 $118.0 1.99 9.0% 28.1 22.1 16.1 17.9 2.9757000207901
$2.73 0.00% $42.70
100.0 Expeditors Int'l WA EXPD 15.0% 27% 108.8 $37.8 $38.61 $74.4 1.81 15.0% 30.0 25.0 20.0 27.2 1.41999995708466
$1.11 0.98% $25.60
100.0 FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMSFDS INC 14.7% 39% 99.6 $57.7 $72.62 $137.5 2.19 10.0% 28.3 21.9 15.6 21.9 3.32199997901917
$3.02 1.10% $31.15
100.0 QUALITY SYSTEMS INC QSII 14.3% 48% 155.2 $39.4 $61.03 $109.2 1.56 20.0% 26.9 20.1 13.3 31.2 1.95599999427795
$1.63 1.97% $16.10
50.0 COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO CL 13.9% 32% 90.7 $77.9 $84.84 $148.5 1.97 9.0% 22.0 19.6 17.1 17.7 4.7850998544693
$4.39 2.07% $54.36
200.0 AFLAC INC AFL 13.2% 54% 110.8 $31.0 $54.10 $91.5 1.42 11.0% 17.4 14.1 10.8 15.6 3.46319987297058
$3.12 2.07% $10.83
28.0 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
CMG 9.9% 53% 134.0 $73.1 $113.63 $182.0 1.96 13.0% 25.0 19.0 13.0 25.5 4.4635000538826
$3.95 0.00% $36.86
175.0 II-VI INC IIVI 9.2% 56% 168.9 $19.7 $32.07 $49.8 1.74 18.0% 25.0 18.5 12.0 31.2 1.02660000562668
$0.87 0.00% $9.70
300.0 LIFEWAY FOODS INC LWAY 3.8% 72% 166.8 $7.2 $11.85 $14.3 2.65 14.0% 26.5 22.3 18.0 37.1 0.319200001358986
$0.28 0.00% $5.43
Overall Portfolio: 18.5% 27% 100.7

The following four rows should be ignored. They're experimental.

519 NEUTRAL TANDEM INC TNDM 32.4% 1% 55.6 $31.1 $17.93 $73.00 0.62 20.0% 22.2 12.3 $1.45 $1.21 0.00% $17.10
519 User 1yr EPS Est. TNDM 29.1% 2% 73.0 $28.9 $17.93 $64.35 0.69 20.0% 24.0 19.0 14.0 13.9 $1.29 0.00% $17.10
519 ACE 5yr EPS Est. 29.1% 2% $28.9 $17.93 $64.34 20.0% 0.00% $17.10
519 Toolkit SSG 32.4% 1% 55.6 $73.00

Goal: Identify stocks that present too much risk or too little return potential as candidates for replacement.
The urgency to act quickly is lower than with the defensive strategy.

Process:
1) Evaluate Quality issues first (PERT Defense and SSG sections 1 and 2) before considering Value
issues (PERT Offense). Don't use "value" as an excuse to hold a poor quality stock.

PERT Offense 09/27/2010

 2) Use an "optimistic" SSG with PERT Offense.

Individual Stock Questions:

1) Is Risk Ratio ratio too high?
2) Is Total Return insufficient to double your investment over 5 years?
3) Is Relative Value too high or too low?

If you answer "yes" to any of those (look for highlighted cells):

1) Look for a replacement stock of equal or better quality, appropriate risk, and better potential for return.
2) Don't use capital gain taxes as an excuse to continue holding a stock that should be replaced.
3) If you can't find a replacement with low enough risk (Risk Ratio <= 25%, aka US/DS ratio >= 3), consider
good quality short-term bonds for up to 20% of the portfolio value while you continue to look for attractive stocks????
4) If you're holding a stock without significant return potential, that investment is probably better off
in a money market fund while you look for a replacement stock.

Even if you answer "no" to all the individual stock questions:

1) Is overall portfolio risk too high (Risk Ratio > 33%) or Total Return potential too low (highlighted)?
If so, try to improve the overall value of your holdings (replace higher risk / lower return stocks).
2) Consider portfolio diversification (see Diversification tab). If an otherwise good holding makes your
portfolio seriously overweighted in one area, consider replacing part of it with something in another area.

PERT Offense 09/27/2010

 DPCache
Industry SectorName

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