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Positive ECM is not a good sign for your model.

It implies that the process it not converging in


the long run. Thus, there are some instabilities. Usually this means that there are some
specification problems with the model itself, or maybe there are some data issues. It could also
be an indication of structural changes, as you have suggested, but you should specify those in
your model, if you suspect that there are some in the analyzed period. Also, there are time series
tests for structural breaks, so you could first test for those and maybe include them in the model
if they are significant.

GANGER:

Test findings show that LNGDP rate caused on LNBC because it is probability
asterisk value is less than 0.10. When the value is less than 0.10 then it caused.
LNGDP caused on LNBD at 0.028 which is less than 5% level of significance. LNBC
caused on LNBD at 0.027 of p value respectively.

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