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Research Article
Modelling the Impact of Media in Controlling the Diseases with
a Piecewise Transmission Rate
Copyright © 2016 Maoxing Liu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
An epidemic model with media is proposed to describe the spread of infectious diseases in a given region. A piecewise continuous
transmission rate is introduced to describe that the media has its effect when the number of the infected exceeds a certain critical
level. Furthermore, it is assumed that the impact of the media on the contact transmission is described by an exponential function.
Stability analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction
number is less than unity. On the other hand, when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, a unique endemic
equilibrium exists, which is also globally asymptotically stable. Our analysis implies that media coverage plays an important role in
controlling the spread of the disease.
1. Introduction function 𝑒−𝑀(𝑡) to reveal the force of media and showed the
potential short-term beneficial effect of awareness programs.
When an infectious disease outbreaks, the spread and the More recently nonsmooth media functions [21–25] have
control of the disease will be reported by the media including been studied. Xiao et al. [21] introduced a segmented function
television programs, newspapers, and online social networks.
to describe the media impact 𝑒−𝑚𝐼𝑐 , here 𝑚 is also the strength
Many examples are the massive reports and daily updates in
of the media effect, and 𝐼𝑐 is a threshold that people take
the public media on the number of the infections and deaths,
the controlling measures or not. A Filippov epidemic model
which had important impacts on the diseases control [1, 2]. It
was proposed to describe the real characteristics of media
is shown that media coverage plays an important role in the
impact in the spread of infectious diseases by incorporating
spread and control of the infectious disease, such as the SARS
in 2003 [3], the H1N1 in 2009 influenza epidemic [4, 5], and a piecewise continuous transmission rate 𝛽𝑒(−𝛼𝜖𝐼) 𝑆𝐼 in [24],
the Ebola in 2014 in Africa [6]. and mathematical analysis with regard to the local and
Recently, such impact on disease spreading and con- global stability of equilibria and local sliding bifurcations are
trolling has been investigated by mathematical modeling performed.
approach [5, 7–20]. In these research works some focused In fact, during infectious disease outbreaks, individuals
their attention on the incidence rate, and the recent survey may reduce their activities after receiving information about
identified three typical terms in [5]. Liu et al. [7] described the the risk of infection. For example, people will reduce the
impact of media coverage using the transmission coefficient time that they go out, students will not attend school, and
𝛽𝑒−𝛼1 𝐸−𝛼2 𝐼−𝛼3 𝐻, and this impact leads to the change of avoid- so on, and such information on the ongoing epidemics may
ance and contact patterns at both individual and community impact the dynamics itself. In fact, at the initial stages of
levels. Cui et al. [8–11] developed a compartment model the prevalence of disease, most people and public mass
using incidence rate 𝜇𝑒−𝑚𝐼 𝑆𝐼 with 𝑚 > 0 to investigate the media are unaware of the disease; thus, the individuals will
impact of media coverage on the transmission, and stability not do any protective measures. Only when the number of
analysis of the models has shown that Hopf bifurcation can infectious individuals reaches and exceeds a certain level,
occur. Tchuenche et al. [14] used an exponentially decreasing the individuals will take precautionary measures against
2 Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
the diseases. Based on the above facts, in this paper we also with
focus on the incidence rate. Here we introduce 𝜎(𝐼) =
𝐼 − 𝐼𝑐 to show this fact, where 𝐼𝑐 is the threshold value.
It is assumed that the impact of media is described by an {0, 𝜎 (𝐼) ≤ 0,
𝜖={ (3)
exponential decreasing factor and the population obeys the 1, 𝜎 (𝐼) > 0,
logistic growth. {
The rest of this paper is organized as follows: in the next
section, a mathematical model is proposed in order to reveal where the function 𝜎(𝐼) = 𝐼 − 𝐼𝑐 means that when infective
the effect of media; then the existence of equilibria is given individuals reach and exceed the certain level 𝐼𝑐 , the media
in Section 3. In Section 4 the local and global stability of the has its effects.
disease-free and the unique endemic equilibria are analyzed. For the solutions of system (2) with (3), the region of at-
Furthermore, in Section 5 some numerical simulations and traction is given by the set:
discussions are given in the last section.
Ω = {(𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑅, 𝑀) ∈ 𝑅+4 | 0 < 𝑆 (𝑡) + 𝐼 (𝑡) + 𝑅 (𝑡)
2. Mathematical Model with Media (4)
𝜎𝐾
In this model the population is divided into three types: the ≤ 𝐾, 0 ≤ 𝑀 ≤ },
]
susceptible, the infective and the recovered. Let 𝑆(𝑡), 𝐼(𝑡),
and 𝑅(𝑡) denote the number of susceptible, infective, and
recovered individuals at time 𝑡, respectively. It is assumed that and it attracts all solutions initiating in the interior of the
the growth of the susceptible population obeys the logistic positive orthant. The (𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑅, 𝑀) phase space is split into two
growth, the intrinsic growth rate of the population is 𝑏, and parts: 𝐺1 = {(𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑅, 𝑀) ∈ 𝑅+4 | 𝜎(𝐼) ≤ 0} and 𝐺2 =
the carrying capacity for the population is 𝐾. The interactions {(𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑅, 𝑀) ∈ 𝑅+4 | 𝜎(𝐼) > 0}. In region 𝐺1 , there is no effect
between susceptible and infective individuals are assumed of the media and the transmission rate 𝛽 = 𝛽0 , while in region
to be bilinear, and 𝛽 is the contact rate of susceptible with 𝐺2 , the transmission rate declines to 𝛽0 𝑒−𝑚𝑀.
infective individuals, 𝛾 is the recovery rate of the infective For convenience, let the vector 𝑍 = (𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑀)𝑇 , and denote
individuals, and 𝑑 is the natural death rate of the population.
Consider that the cumulative density of media about the 𝑆
disease is 𝑀(𝑡). The growth rate of cumulative density of 𝐹𝐺1 (𝑍) = (𝑏𝑆 (1 − ) − 𝛽0 𝑆𝐼, 𝛽0 𝑆𝐼 − (𝛾 + 𝑑) 𝐼, 𝜎𝐼
media, 𝜎, is assumed to be proportional to the number of 𝐾
infective individuals in the population, and ] is the depletion 𝑇
rate of cumulative density of media. Thus, we have the − ]𝑀) ,
following model: (5)
𝑆
𝐹𝐺2 (𝑍) = (𝑏𝑆 (1 − ) − 𝛽0 𝑒−𝑚𝑀𝑆𝐼, 𝛽0 𝑒−𝑚𝑀𝑆𝐼
𝑆 𝐾
𝑆 (𝑡) = 𝑏𝑆 (1 − ) − 𝛽𝑆𝐼,
𝐾 𝑇
− (𝛾 + 𝑑) 𝐼, 𝜎𝐼 − ]𝑀) .
𝐼 (𝑡) = 𝛽𝑆𝐼 − (𝛾 + 𝑑) 𝐼,
(1)
𝑅 (𝑡) = 𝛾𝐼 − 𝑑𝑅, Then system (2) with (3) can be rewritten as the following
switching system:
𝑀 (𝑡) = 𝜎𝐼 − ]𝑀.
𝑆
𝑆 (𝑡) = 𝑏𝑆 (1 − ) − 𝛽0 𝑒−𝜖𝑚𝑀𝑆𝐼, 3. Existence of Equilibria
𝐾
𝐼 (𝑡) = 𝛽0 𝑒−𝜖𝑚𝑀𝑆𝐼 − (𝛾 + 𝑑) 𝐼, 3.1. Equilibria of 𝑆1 . Let 𝐹𝐺1 (𝑍) be zero; one can verify that
(2) the origin 𝐸01 = (0, 0, 0) is a hyperbolic saddle point with
𝑅 (𝑡) = 𝛾𝐼 − 𝑑𝑅, eigenvalues 𝑏, −(𝛾 + 𝑑), −]. The subsystem 𝑆1 has one disease-
free equilibrium 𝐸02 = (𝐾, 0, 0), and the stability of 𝐸02 can be
𝑀 (𝑡) = 𝜎𝐼 − ]𝑀, obtained in the following section.
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 3
It follows from [26] that the reproduction number 𝑅0 = Theorem 1. When 𝑅0 > 1 and 0 < 𝑚 < 𝑚0 subsystem 𝑆2 has
𝛽0 𝐾/(𝛾 + 𝑑) and we can verify that when 𝑅0 > 1, 𝑆1 has a a unique endemic equilibrium 𝐸∗ = (𝑆∗ , 𝐼∗ , 𝑀∗ ).
unique endemic equilibrium 𝐸0∗ = (𝑆0∗ , 𝐼0∗ , 𝑀0∗ ), where
𝛾+𝑑 4. Stability of Equilibria
𝑆0∗ = ,
𝛽0 In this section we present the locally and globally asymptot-
𝑏 1 ical stability of the equilibria of subsystem 𝑆1 and subsystem
𝐼0∗ = (1 − ) , (7) 𝑆2 .
𝛽0 𝑅0
𝜎 ∗ Theorem 2. The disease-free equilibrium 𝐸02 is locally asymp-
𝑀0∗ = 𝐼 . totically stable if 𝑅0 < 1 and unstable when 𝑅0 > 1.
] 0
3.2. Equilibria of 𝑆2 . The disease-free equilibria of the sub- Proof. The characteristic equation corresponding to the sub-
system 𝑆2 are same with the subsystem 𝑆1 ; thus, we study the system 𝑆1 at 𝐸02 is the form
existence of the endemic equilibrium of 𝑆2 .
Let 𝐹𝐺2 (𝑍) be zero; one can see that the endemic equilib- (𝜆 + 𝑏) [𝜆 − 𝛽0 𝐾 + (𝛾 + 𝑑)] (𝜆 + ]) = 0, (13)
rium must satisfy
where 𝜆 is the eigenvalue. We get
𝑆
𝑏𝑆 (1 − ) − 𝛽0 𝑒−𝑚𝑀𝑆𝐼 = 0,
𝐾 𝜆 1 = −𝑏,
−𝑚𝑀 (8)
𝛽0 𝑒 𝑆 = 𝛾 + 𝑑, 𝜆 2 = 𝛽0 𝐾 − (𝛾 + 𝑑) = (𝛾 + 𝑑) (𝑅0 − 1) , (14)
𝜎𝐼 − ]𝑀 = 0. 𝜆 3 = −].
If there exists a positive equilibrium, it is a positive solution
of Thus, 𝐸02 is locally asymptotically stable if 𝑅0 < 1 and unstable
when 𝑅0 > 1. The proof of the disease-free equilibrium of the
𝛽0 −(𝑚𝜎/])𝐼 subsystem 𝑆2 is similar to 𝑆1 ; then this proof is omitted.
𝑆 = 𝐾 (1 − 𝐼𝑒 ) fl 𝑔 (𝐼) ,
𝑏
(9) Theorem 3. The disease-free equilibrium 𝐸02 is globally asymp-
𝐾 (𝑚𝜎/])𝐼
𝑆= 𝑒 fl ℎ (𝐼) . totically stable if 𝑅0 < 1.
𝑅0
Proof. To establish the global stability of the disease-free
One can verify that 𝑔(0) = 𝐾, ℎ(0) = 𝐾/𝑅0 , and if 𝑅0 > 1,
equilibrium of subsystem 𝑆2 , we consider the positive definite
𝑔(0) > ℎ(0). Hence, the two curves 𝑆 = 𝑔(𝐼) and 𝑆 = ℎ(𝐼)
function 𝑉(𝑡) = 𝐼(𝑡) by using Lyapunov’s method. Now
have at least one positive intersection. In order to determine
differentiating 𝑉 with respect to 𝑡, we get
the number of positive intersections we consider the tangency
of two curves. If the two curves intersect, it must have 𝑔(𝐼) =
𝑑𝑉
ℎ(𝐼), 𝑔 (𝐼) = ℎ (𝐼); that is, = [𝛽𝑒−𝑚𝑀𝑆 − (𝛾 + 𝑑)] 𝐼 < [𝛽𝑆 − (𝛾 + 𝑑)] 𝐼
𝑑𝑡 (15)
𝛽 1 (𝑚𝜎/])𝐼
1 − 0 𝐼𝑒−(𝑚𝜎/])𝐼 = 𝑒 , = (𝑅0 − 1) (𝛾 + 𝑑) 𝐼.
𝑏 𝑅0
(10)
𝛽0 −(𝑚𝜎/])𝐼 𝑚𝜎 𝑚𝜎 (𝑚𝜎/])𝐼 If 𝑅0 < 1, then 𝑑𝑉/𝑑𝑡 ≤ 0. Thus, LaSalle’s invariance principle
𝑒 ( 𝐼 − 1) = 𝑒 . implies that 𝐸02 is globally asymptotically stable in Ω. We can
𝑏 ] 𝑅0 ]
use the same positive definite function when we prove the
From (10) 𝐼 must satisfy the quadratic equation: global stability of the disease-free equilibrium of subsystem
𝑆1 .
] 2 𝑏𝑅0 ]
(2𝐼 − ) = (𝐼 − ). (11)
𝑚𝜎 𝛽0 𝑚𝜎 In fact, when 𝑅0 < 1 curves starting from 𝐺2 will
converge to (𝐾, 0, 0) that belongs to 𝐺1 , and curves starting
Let 𝛿 = 𝑏𝑅0 /𝛽0 , 𝛼 = ]/𝑚𝜎; then we have
from 𝐺1 also converge to (𝐾, 0, 0); therefore, 𝐸02 = (𝐾, 0, 0)
4𝛼 + 𝛿 ± √𝛿 (𝛿 − 8𝛼) is globally asymptotically stable. In the following we consider
𝐼= . (12) the stability of the endemic equilibrium 𝐸0∗ of subsystem 𝑆1
8
and 𝐸∗ of subsystem 𝑆2 . According to Hurwitz criterion, it is
Let 𝑚0 = 8𝛽0 ]/𝑏𝜎𝑅0 ; if 0 < 𝑚 < 𝑚0 , (11) has no roots and easy to get the following proposition.
the system has a unique endemic equilibrium. If 𝑚 = 𝑚0 ,
(11) has one unique root and the system has one endemic Proposition 4. The unique endemic equilibrium 𝐸0∗ of sub-
equilibria of multiplicity at least two. If 𝑚 > 𝑚0 , (11) has two system 𝑆1 is locally asymptotically stable if 𝑅0 > 1. The
roots and the system has three endemic equilibria. Thus, we unique endemic equilibrium 𝐸∗ of subsystem 𝑆2 is locally
have the following theorem. asymptotically stable if 𝑅0 > 1.
4 Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
×104 ×104
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
I I
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
4 3 3 15
3 2 2 2 10
1 1 ×105 1 5
×105 0 ×105 0 0 ×104
S t S t
(a) Global stability of 𝐸0∗ when 1 < 𝑅0 < 𝑅𝑐 (b) Global stability of 𝐸∗ when 𝑅0 > 𝑅𝑐
When the endemic equilibrium 𝐸0∗ belongs to 𝐺1 , we get 5. Numerical Simulations and Results
1 < 𝑅0 < 𝑏/(𝑏 − 𝛽0 𝐼𝑐 ) from the expression of 𝐼0∗ , so if 𝑅0 >
𝑏/(𝑏 − 𝛽0 𝐼𝑐 ), 𝐸0∗ belongs to 𝐺2 , which lead to the existence of To check the analysis in Section 4 about 𝐸0∗ and 𝐸∗ , we do
𝐸∗ that belongs to 𝐺2 . Let 𝑅𝑐 = 𝑏/(𝑏 − 𝛽0 𝐼𝑐 ); then we have the some numerical simulations in this section.
following result. When 1 < 𝑅0 < 𝑅𝑐 , we set the following values of parame-
ters: 𝑏 = 0.00095, 𝐾 = 500000, 𝛽0 = 0.0000001, 𝑚 = 0.05, 𝛾 =
Theorem 5. When 1 < 𝑅0 < 𝑅𝑐 the endemic equilibrium 𝐸0∗ 0.003, 𝑑 = 0.0002, and 𝐼𝑐 = 9000, and we get 𝑅0 = 8.8, 𝑅𝑐 =
is globally asymptotically stable; when 𝑅0 > 𝑅𝑐 the endemic 12.3, and 1 < 𝑅0 < 𝑅𝑐 . Next we consider another case 𝑅0 > 𝑅𝑐
equilibrium 𝐸∗ is globally asymptotically stable. by taking 𝑏 = 0.001, 𝛽0 = 0.00000009, and 𝐼𝑐 = 10000, and get
𝑅0 = 13.2, 𝑅𝑐 = 10. We, respectively, choose two sets of initial
Proof. Let a Dulac function values that belong to 𝐺1 (𝐼0 < 𝐼𝑐 ) and two sets of initial values
that belong to 𝐺2 (𝐼0 > 𝐼𝑐 ). Thus, we get 𝐼0∗ = 8771 < 9000,
1 𝐼∗ = 10680 > 10000; see Figure 1. As shown in Figure 1(a) the
𝐷 (𝑆, 𝐼, 𝑀) = , (16) trajectories all approach towards 𝐸0∗ no matter whether 𝐼0 ∈
𝑆𝐼
𝐺1 or 𝐺2 . Hence, 𝐸0∗ is globally asymptotically stable when 1 <
𝑅0 < 𝑅𝑐 . Whereas when 𝑅0 > 𝑅𝑐 the trajectories approach
and we make 𝑓1 = 𝑏(1 − 𝑆/𝐾)𝑆 − 𝛽0 𝑒−𝑚𝑀𝑆𝐼, 𝑓2 = 𝛽0 𝑒−𝑚𝑀𝑆𝐼 − towards 𝐸∗ what Figure 1(b) responses. In conclusion, 𝐸0∗ and
(𝛾 + 𝑑)𝐼, and 𝑓3 = 𝜎𝐼 − ]𝑀 for the subsystem 𝑆2 . Then 𝐸∗ are globally asymptotically stable if 𝑅0 > 1.
In the following we consider the impact of media coverage
𝜕 (𝐷𝑓1 ) 𝜕 (𝐷𝑓2 ) 𝜕 (𝐷𝑓3 ) 𝑏 ] on the spread of diseases by drawing the curves between
+ + =− − < 0. (17) 𝐼(𝑡), 𝑆(𝑡), and 𝑚, respectively, as shown in Figure 2. It is
𝜕𝑆 𝜕𝐼 𝜕𝑀 𝐾𝐼 𝑆𝐼 shown that the number of 𝐼(𝑡) reduces with the increase
of 𝑚, which is opposite to 𝑆(𝑡). This is common sense that
Hence, we can exclude the existence of limit cycles in region media coverage influences people’s behavior and reminds
𝐺2 . The same method can be applied in discussion for region them to prevent themselves from the diseases through staying
𝐺1 . at home, reducing travel or quarantine, and so on. So it is clear
When 1 < 𝑅0 < 𝑅𝑐 , it is easy to get the endemic that media coverage plays a key role in the preventing and
equilibrium 𝐸0∗ that belongs to 𝐺1 and all curves starting controlling the diseases.
from 𝐺1 will verge to 𝐸0∗ . We know that all curves starting
from 𝐺2 will converge to 𝐸∗ , but 𝐸∗ also belongs to 𝐺1 if 6. Discussion
1 < 𝑅0 < 𝑅𝑐 , and there is a unique endemic equilibrium
and no limit cycles in region 𝐺1 ; hence, curves starting from In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model has been
𝐺2 will enter 𝐺1 and converge to 𝐸0∗ . Thus, when 1 < 𝑅0 < proposed and analyzed to describe the impact of media
𝑅𝑐 the endemic equilibrium 𝐸0∗ is globally asymptotically coverage on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.
stable. Similarly when 𝑅0 > 𝑅𝑐 the endemic equilibrium 𝐸0∗ Considering the fact that public mass media usually do not
belongs to 𝐺2 ; hence, curves starting from 𝐺1 will enter 𝐺2 work when the number of the infected individuals is generally
and converge to the unique endemic equilibrium 𝐸∗ in region small at the initial stages of prevalence of the disease, and
𝐺2 . So when 𝑅0 > 𝑅𝑐 the endemic equilibrium 𝐸∗ is globally by incorporating a piecewise continuous transmission rate
asymptotically stable. to represent that media coverage has its effects only when
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 5
×104 ×105
4
16
3.5
14
3
12
2.5
10
I S 2
8
6 1.5
4 1
2 0.5
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
t ×105 t ×105
the number of the infected individuals exceeds a certain level. [3] A. B. Gumel, S. Ruan, T. Day et al., “Modelling strategies for
The disease-free equilibrium has been shown to be globally controlling SARS outbreaks,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B:
asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number Biological Sciences, vol. 271, no. 1554, pp. 2223–2232, 2004.
𝑅0 < 1. When 𝑅0 > 1 and 0 < 𝑚 < 𝑚0 sufficiently small, [4] C. Fraser, C. A. Donnelly, S. Cauchemez et al., “Pandemic
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14, pp. 376–386, 2014.
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the spread of diseases, which suggest that if we want to reduce [6] M. S. Majumder, S. Kluberg, M. Santillana, S. Mekaru, and J.
S. Brownstein, “Ebola outbreak: media events track changes in
the number of the infected individuals, we should increase
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media coverage.
[7] R. S. Liu, J. H. Wu, and H. P. Zhu, “Media/psychological
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Conflict of Interests Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, vol. 8,
no. 3, pp. 153–164, 2007.
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests [8] J. A. Cui, Y. H. Sun, and H. P. Zhu, “The impact of media
regarding the publication of this paper. on the control of infectious diseases,” Journal of Dynamics and
Differential Equations, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 31–53, 2008.
[9] Y. Liu, J. A. Cui, and H. Zhu, “The impact of media coverage
Acknowledgments on the dynamics of infectious disease,” International Journal of
Biomathematics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 65–74, 2008.
The project is supported by the National Sciences Foundation [10] J.-A. Cui, X. Tao, and H. P. Zhu, “An SIS infection model
of China (11571324) and the Scientific Activities of Selected incorporating media coverage,” The Rocky Mountain Journal of
Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province. Mathematics, vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 1323–1334, 2008.
[11] Y. Li and J. Cui, “The effect of constant and pulse vaccination on
SIS epidemic models incorporating media coverage,” Commu-
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