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WOH Soiicea gency fiatenas Canaca PROTECTED A i CEO a ERE” EE. Audience: CBSA National Operations Issued: JAN 2018 Enforcement and Intelligence Priority: Irregular Migration Expiry: JAN 2019 Tenn ene CrTy Indicators for Irregular Migration of Temporary Protected @ Status Holders from the United States ORME MEN wm ommended for Shift Briefin; Highlights ‘© The termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designations could affect over 400,000 persons, of which nationals of Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador represent over 90%. (U) ‘© Most TPS holders are highly likely to explore options, both authorized and unauthorized, that would allow them to stay in the United States (U.S.). ‘© However, even if 1% of the combined Haitian, Honduran and Salvadoran TPS population decided to seek refuugee protection in Canada (almost 5,000 persons) it would lead to a sizable influx. (PA) ‘© The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) can expect to see migration to Canada by affected ‘TPS holders to occur gradually, within about 12 to 24 months of their TPS termination announcement. (PA) + Fora list of indicators on potential migration to Canada by TPS holders, refer to Annex A. (PA) Background 1. TPS allows foreign nationals in the U.S. to stay for as long as their home country is deemed unsafe due to extraordinary but temporary factors. TPS is not an avenue towards permanent residence of citizenship, merely a temporary stay from deportation. Ten countries presently hold TPS designation: Sudan, South Sudan, Nicaragua, Haiti, Honduras, Syria, Somalia, El Salvador, ‘Yemen and Nepal. Nationals of Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador represent the majority of TPS. holders (over 90%). If TPS designations are not renewed, the number of claims for the impacted countries is likely to spike once the status expires. Refer to Annex B and C (U.S. TPS Implications for Irregular Migration to Canada) for details on TPS designations. (PA) INTELLIGENCE BRIEF 2. To qualify for TPS, applicants must have entered the U.S. by a specified date and have been in continuous residence since their respective arrival dates. Applicants cannot have a criminal record and must submit to background checks. If convicted of two or more misdemeanors or a felony in the U.S., an applicant is ineligible. If the applicant is considered inadmissible to the US, they are ineligible. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has stated that the information provided by applicants for TPS registration may be used to start exclusion or deportation proceedings if TPS is denied, withdrawn or expires. Most TPS holders are unlikely to become involved in any criminal activity as this could endanger their TPS standing and all the allowances that it provides them with, such as work authorizations and a driver’s livense. (PA) Canada vot We veda or dsseaied wihou po consent of We “Tae decom bs popety of te Gannds Fors Saves Agen (CRSA) and rig Thorman ast be shed taro an sfeguanded in asordance wii clscaton level aon nthe Germ est Piya The COSA Socuty Poi If acres oqured une th Acre nin Asc the Prey Act no decton shuld be aban witht pir conan wi the ‘ripe he normaton maybe sult to veins, Regu fr adits we shouldbe fran ote lnlgence Operations and Analy Divison re Bol Srigec, Aiateral eae » SE ESR YS Haitian, Honduran and Salvadoran TPS holders in the U.S. 3. According to a report by the Center for Migration Studies (CMS), over 50% of Honduran and Salvadoran and 16% of Haitian TPS holders have been in the U.S. for 20 or more years, with at least 20% of Honduran and Salvadorans and 30% of Haitians being 15 years old or younger when they arrived in the U.S. According to the CMS, most are married, between 5-10% to a legal U.S. resident, and have children. A large number have children under 21 years in the U.S., and itis likely that the majority have children who are U.S. citizens. A study by the University of Kansas Center for Migration Research on the experiences of Honduran and Salvadoran TPS holders found that, participants had a high level of social integration within their community. Many TPS holders have not kept ties with or returned to their country of origin since they left. (U) Country Conditions in Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador 4, All three countries have various environmental, social, economic and political factors that might impede their ability to effectively handle the return of TPS holders. Honduras and El Salvador are troubled by high homicide rates, gang violence and related crime. In Haiti, crime is underreported and homicides a major concern. The existing limited economic opportunities, poverty, high unemployment, poor infrastructure and high reliance on remittances have been concerns raised by those who may be forced to return. Alll three are alleged to have corruption within their respective judicial and political systems, Finally, environmental events such as natural disasters (i.e. hurricanes and earthquakes) and drought have proven difficult for each to recover from and cope with. (U) Review of Current Haitian, Honduran and Salvadoran Claims in Canada 5. Based on information for refugee claims filed in Canada from January | to December 5, 2017, claims from all three countries have significantly increased. The majority of claims for Honduran and Salvadoran nationals have been filed at the land border, with Hondurans filing mainly in the Quebec Region and Salvadorans mainly in the Southem Ontario Region. Most Haitian claimants entered Canada between the ports (BTP) in the Quebec region and were processed at inland offices. Based on preliminary analysis. most Haitian claimants have not been TPS holders, most are unauthorized persons in the U.S. According to the 2016 National Household Survey, there is a sizeable Haitian diaspora in Montreal and a large Central American diaspora in Ontario, mainly in the Greater Toronto Area. In the 1980s, Canada took in a sizable number of Salvadoran refugees due to the then ongoing civil war. There is a chance that family reunification is playing a role in the current migration movement. Were this not the case, it is almost certain that the CBSA would have seen more inland claims or more Hondurans and Salvadorans entering BTP. (PA) Immigration Policies in the U.S. as an X-Factor for Migration to Canada 6. Since carly 2017, new immigration and enforcement policies and initiatives have been adopted in the U.S. signaling a harder stance in how migration to the country is managed. Initiatives and policies hhave been adopted that aim to increase immigration enforcement actions, implement an expedited deportation process and limit who may apply for a U.S. visa or seek asylum. In terms of TPS designations, the DHS has stated they wanted to put the “temporary” back in “Temporary Protected Status” and has announced that they would be further scrutinizing the criminal histories of TPS Canada This document Whe propery of he Conds Bondar Srv Aysnay (CRSA) a shold ae be naiaslind oy Ancomnated winou por cena he orga The intrmaton must be Sore, sass ane anlepunrd in acoranee wih clsan level ss ulin in he Cones Sct Toy ad {he CBSA Sees Poe aces ue the ess nin at Be Py Acted sald be hen without ro coaaon wi he ‘sinatra th inormation may be suet o exemptions equa or adtonal we shoud fond tthe neligens Operations snd Ansys von Ganaca Border Agnes des sorvices Mol Screen, Agimecareres, * “SST SES EEE TB holders, announcements in line with the hardening rhetoric on illegal immigrants in the U.S. Also, in line with tightening immigration controls, a variety of other programs that relate to migration, such as the Central American Minors program and the Deferred Action for ‘Childhood Arrivals program have been terminated. As immigration enforcement efforts intensify and anti-migrant mentality spreads, TPS holders fearing deportation back to their countries of citizenship could turn to Canada. (PA) Potential Scenarios Regarding TPS Designations 7. There are four potential scenarios regarding TPS designations that could impact when irregular migration to Canada is most likely to occur. The first is non-renewal, where TPS is terminated with no extension or delay provided, migration to Canada would likely be seen gradually as soon as the termination is announced. The second scenario is a limited renewal, where an extension is given for a period of six to twelve months. Migration to Canada would likely happen following the renewal period. Third, an alternate program for those affected is announced. In this case, migration to Canada would probably be reduced but still be likely due to uncertainties as to whether or not individuals would qualify. Finally, if TPS is fully renewed migration to Canada is unlikely to occur. For a full timeline on possible scenarios, see Annex D. (PA) Indicators of Migration to Canada 8. U.S. government announcements and statements from community leaders: In terms of a general ‘timeline, designation decision announcements made by the U.S. government are usually 60 days prior to the TPS expiration. In the event that the U.S, announces that a country's TPS will not be renewed in full, migration to Canada would be likely. Additionally, any TPS announcements made by the U.S. would be followed by statements from community leaders, such as religious and municipal authorities. These persons, in an effort to try to advise those affected, may present migration to or seeking refugee protection in Canada as a viable option to those impacted, which could increase irregular migration to Canada. (For specific information of all indicators, refer to Annex A). (PA) 9. Information on social media: Given the prevalence and influence of social media, this avenue of communication is crucial to monitor in order to identify emerging trends. Persons concerned about their status in the U.S. will use social media to communicate with others and will share information on ‘what their possible options are and the steps involved with those options. Following the TPS announcement in May 2017, Canada saw a surge in Haitian nationals, mainly non-TPS holders, entering Canada BTP to file a refugee claim. It was eventually determined that social media, such as Facebook and WhatsApp, were key to driving this movement as false and misleading information posted on various social media sites gave the impression that once in Canada, permanent status would be all but assured. (PA) 10. Increased government (both domestic and foreign) and classified reporting: More reporting on enforcement actions or encounters of irregular migrants in the U.S. and Canada as well as reporting at the classified level of increased activity by people smugglers or those who might facilitate entry BTP could indicate a market or need for these services. People smugglers are known to assist persons within various communities to reach the U.S.; a diversification to helping persons within these communities to reach Canada from the U.S. is plausible. In correlation, increased government reporting, both from Canadian and from foreign partners, would be an additional indictor. Examples 8 rrorecronssenicewrecny Canada THis document she property of de Canadh Borer Svies Agency (CRSA) and ald pot laaaied a UiSGane AO POE PONS OT at. The frmation must be sted transite and safeguarded in acorn wih castcatn level as cained mthe Goverment nei el et the CASA Secuniy Pls If acess requested unde the Aces onan fio the Pry Al nodes shuld be hes eoernnee eee eo atta he oration muy be suet o exemptions Regus for addon se shouldbe oswaned ose ligase Opeabons tad Reckee ee BON Srey MRSS Ein * aE, TSE include reports of increased U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests and removals, Border Patrol encounters or high profile arrests of persons from affected communities which could act as catalysts for persons to leave the U.S. (PA) 11. Increases in refugee claims and in anchor relatives: While refugee claims across almost all nationalities increased in 2017, available analysis to date shows that there have been few TPS holders filing for protection in Canada. However. should there be a non-renewal of TPS, a number of TPS holders will likely turn to Canada. If granted limited renewal, some TPS holders may decide to send a family member ahead to establish themselves in Canada before sending for the rest of the family, thereby becoming anchor relatives. This could appear as an emerging trend amongst refugee claimants: persons who are married but not accompanied by their spouse or family, or of claimants admitting that they intend to send for their family once set up in Canada, Family reunification may already be playing a role in the current movement of Salvadoran claimants and it should not be discounted that this trend may spread to other TPS countries. (PA) 12. Increased inquiries at embassies in the U.S, and in Temporary Resident visa (TRV) applications. With the uncertainties surrounding their TPS situation, affected persons will likely take steps to prepare for its loss. They will want to know what options are available to them resulting in an increase in inquiries at embassies in the U.S. In conjunction, there will likely be a corresponding increase in the number of TRV applications. TPS does not grant status in the U.S. that would allow holders to travel to Canada visa-free. They will therefore need visas. An increase in TRV applications by nationals of TPS countries, particularly at visa offices in the U.S., would indicate that TPS holders are likely considering Canada as a migration avenue. Once they have visas, they could travel to Canada, possibly to visit family, and decide to file their claims at inland offices. (PA) 13. Fear metric in the U.S.: How safe people in the affected communities feel will add weight to their decision to stay or leave and therefore monitoring of related trends will provide information on potential arrivals. Review of refugee claimants’ basis of claims will add insight into what the atmosphere was like for them before they left the U.S., such as whether they experienced instances of racism, discrimination or intolerance that made them feel unsafe and unwelcome or if'a fear of deportation ultimately added weight to their decision to leave, It should be noted that persons in the affected communities who become targets of racism or acts of violence may not feel safe to report said crimes and therefore an increase in these types of acts in the U.S. may remain unreported. ‘Through previous analysis of other third country nationals who had been living in the U.S. there has been mention of a noticeable anti-migrant atmosphere emerging, which made them feel unsafe. This emerging atmosphere in conjunction with increased immigration enforcement (ie. reports of “carding” at checkpoints within the U.S.) may increase fears of detection and deportation, and push people to leave. (PA) 14, Level of preparedness for travel: Finally, more encounters of persons showing a level of preparedness beyond what could be reasonably expected for bona-fide travellers entering Canada could indicate potential migration. A number of Haitian, Honduran and Salvadoran TPS holders have been in the USS. for up to 20 years. They have homes, businesses and other assets that they would want to liquidate so they have funds readily available. Canada = DN Sorcery fBetfena nade [eee Implications for the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Canada 15. While there was a surge in Haitian nationals entering Canada BTP soon after the May 2017 TPS. announcement, similar surges are unlikely to happen with Honduran, Salvadoran and other TPS holders. Honduran and Salvadoran TPS holders have been in the U.S. much longer and are more established than most other nationals with TPS. In the event that they believe that they have no other option, they are highly likely to take steps similar to other unauthorized persons, rather than migrate to Canada. However, even if Canada was to see at least 1% of the combined Haitian, Honduran and Salvadoran TPS population this would still approach 5,000 persons. (PA) 16. Honduras’ TPS was granted a limited renewal until July 5, 2018. The U.S. will likely extend the TPS once more to allow persons time to make alternate arrangements. On January 8, 2018, it was announced that the Salvadoran TPS would be terminated on September 9, 2019. It was announced that Haiti’s TPS designation would be terminated on July 22, 2019. Any potential migration from the U.S. by these TPS holders is highly likely to be delayed and will not immediately take place. It is highly likely that they will take advantage of any granted extension or delay to explore avenues that would allow them to stay in the U.S. (PA) 17. As nationals of all TPS countries require a visa to enter Canada, a level of screening pre-border does exist. TPS holders may not want to file a refugee claim immediately upon arriving at the Canadian border. As TPS holders would be ineligible for TPS if they are found to have criminality, they are unlikely to be persons who would raise serious inadmissibility concerns. If anything, there is an even chance that some may overstay theit visa, The potential for persons being in Canada without legal status should not be overlooked. Also, some TPS holders arriving in Canada via air may attempt to mask their intention to migrate without a visa or may not present as an irregular migrant, therefore making interdictions difficult. (PA) 18. The Government of Canada has taken proactive steps and has issued communications to counteract potential misinformation that may arise on social media and in the media at large as well as providing information regarding migration pathways to Canada. Continued information sharing and collaboration with Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada as well as the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and U.S. authorities will also be vital in obtaining information to provide early ‘warning and attempt to disrupt any large irregular movements into Canada. (PA) 19, Reporting related to the indicators should be sent to the Irregular Migration Fusion Centre at: CBSA.lregular Migration Fusion Centre-Centre_de_fusion_de_migration_irreguliere ASFC@cbsa- Prepared by: J.#., Current Intelligence and Analysis Section, Canada This drum the prope of Uw Cada Bonar Savin Agency (COSA) and wait hot be welawlied or Aasemuted Wihow peor cons oF ninth infonmaton est be sto ana an sdegntied in accordance wii casneton eva clined athe Covet Ses Pei a {he CASA Seeary Poles I ace fe equsted under fe Acts oman At othe Povey Act ne decison shoul be ake wibout prior consutaton with hs Sgt ste trator ye! eps Rw ri lf rol ip Opn nA Dn Bel SoiseeRgons, fataieds Cana Highly Unlikely @ @ | A US. A # The U.S. government (i. the DHS) usually makes an government | announcement about a country’s TPS designation at least 60 days announcements | prior to its expiration. «TPS designations can be renewed for a period of 6-18 months. ‘* Should the DHS need more information to make a determination, an automatic six month extension will applied. | * The DHS may grant a delay (12 months) following the termination | of a TPS designation to allow for transition | ‘* Limited renewal is likely to push some persons to leave the U.S. due to the uncertainty of their situation. ‘* Most migration is likely to occur once the TPS expires. Messaging from | ** Persons such as government officials from the TPS country of community origin make media statements to those affected as well as to leaders | lawmakers in the U. | * Persons such as religious and municipal leaders or non- | governmental organizations hold town halls and information | sessions to inform persons of what their options are. ‘+ Educational institutions such as colleges or universities may also offer opportunities for information and discussion around | migration to Canada. Canada Sans tis propery of Ue Canna Border Sorts Agnsy (CRSA) wd should pat fe colin ov Unsaid wiout prow conan of We guar. The ormaton aust tore, wanted, ad sneguaded ours wth scot evel ap tind nthe Cverment Seer Das) 2d {heCHA Seunty Pee ace send under to tan Ato te Primo dso be aan witht porcelain wih fhe ‘iia, ath oan may e suet o exempts Rue additonal we shoud bs fryasded to the neligense Operations tod Ansys Dveson Wey Seco Senees Agency Indicator [Information on | | social media | | i} Government reporting (both domestic and foreign) = tre CASA Scary Pein If acto oqusted under the Acre ino of the Pro At no dec sho bean Wi ‘naan a he lormaton may be sult exepons Requsts fr adiona se shouldbe forward othe Inlgeee Operations snd Analy Divison cco dos sevces (Sree Canada ‘* There are many varying applications that may be used to share | information, Here are just a few | Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, WhatsApp, WeChat, Viber, | Snapchat, YouTube, Google and Blogger. + Trending information on irregular migration to Canada. © A high level of views on certain messages or videos could signal a potential surge. | | | © Community forums or groups where discussions around TPS will | take place, | | » The type of discussions taking place around the information —i.e. | | steps to take if non-renewal occurs. | | © The type of information being re-posted | | | | + Information marked publi vs privat—to asses impact | © Global Affairs Canada, Privy Council Office, IRC, Royal | _ Canadian Mounted Police or other Canadian agency reporting, | + USS. reporting: ICE, DHS, Border Patrol, State Department, ete | “s Northbound movements seen by the U.S. Customs and Border | Protection and Border Patrol. | o Shared Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reports ‘on arrests and detentions. + Other foreign partner reporting, particularly from TPS nationality countries. # Reporting indicates an increased interest in movements out of the US. «Increased classified reporting, ‘« Increase in reporting on organized crime groups/ actors involved in people smuggling communicating about movements into Canada. “Rees CSA) and owls ot be raalied oy GsenuTaed wow por cone oe Deut por conan with the Ganade Border Agonca dos servicos ‘Servos Agency aniwrs ou Conan Increase in refugee claims A * Increase in persons filing for protection who admit to have held | TPS in the U.S, | ‘* Noticeable increase in refugee claims filed in Canada by persons of | TPS countries. « Increase in persons filing for protection with the U.S. as a last country of residence. Increase in inquiries at embassies on immigration related topics ® Increase in inquiries at embassies; A « Increased interest in the rules and regulations surrounding migration to Canada, © Who are making the inquiries? © US. citizens, possibly on behalf of a non-U.S. resident spouse or parent? © Or third country nationals in the U.S. who are TPS holders? Tnerease in Temporary Resident Visa applications ak ‘Noticeable increase in applications filed; * Increase in applications filed from within the U.S. by nationals of TPS counties. Increase in anchor relatives { | Fear metric in | the US. More persons filing at the land border who qualify for a Safe Third Country Agreement exemption, specifically for having a family member in Canada, as a last country of residence, including from non-TPS countries, saying in their basis of claim? Canada UHeCSA Scurty Felice ace teeter de Acs Inraton At Tie dn Oe ry oe Coc Dri vie Aap CRA) wal Al oa Find ora wan pe ence we Acne dsison shoul be taken without pro costae wih hs Garaca Borer Agone des services Bel Srelom, (maser, Indicato Petesriniy egative portrayal of persons from migrant communities in the USS. by officials in media statements, © Messaging focused on highlighting alleged criminality and violence perpetrated in the U.S. by persons of certain ethnic minorities. Level of | * If travelling by air, persons may present as though they were an preparedness for immigrant without a visa travel Reporting related to the indicators should be sent to the Irregular Migration Fusion Centre at: SE ee Canada Ths doco & the property of ho Canada Border Serves Agen (CISA) and And at by TESD @ Se The CBA ScurtyPoices aca equal unde th A re {the ermstion nay be sb! to enemies Regus fo a woot pa colon wh aen Garage Border Sentces Agency ‘Agence des sereas ‘rSniaiers au Canada mated Renae Beneficiaries Ree El Salvador February 13,2001 [March 9, 2018 “263,282 __ [September 9, 2019 Hat Fanuary 12, 2011 [January 58,706 [July 22, 2019 Honduras December 30, 1998 [July 5, 2018 86,163, . Nepal [June 24, 2015 Tune 24, 2018 12,967 Nicaragua December 30, 1998 | January 5, 2018 349 [January 5.2019 Somalia May 1, 2012 September 17, 2018 497 South Sudan [January 25, 2016 May 2, 2019 49 Sudan January 9, 2013, ~ 7,039 [November 3, 2018 Syria August 1, 2016 March 31, 2018 [6.77 | Yemen [lanuary 4.2 September 3, 2018 8191 *The date detailed when the U.S, terminated, with a delay to allow for transition and not extended. government announces that the country’s TPS designation will be SE Canada Saves Ape rons Regus foe ai cision shoul be ake: fe frwarded to the neligence Operations si ous, ‘mie ascoraaa PROTECTED AI CEO "What is if TPS alows foreign rationals aeaoyn he U.S. 10 eran for Longs tne hone cou fe geared uneate due to extraordinary but emporsy actor (og ames coater snonmental acter, paar) During esata holds cannot be deported or deed forimmaraton casera {25°eee rare roy ties proces ot Holder: 59000, 201 RB Approve Rate (Gan Sep 3 sta einai Hakan TS hors hae ben gen at ea ctu oregatce guatonsntsn te We th may nan ‘poMaie ae hay sbengts nena US. older 265,000 force: 757 (lap tam [puaesauiatet tec arnacer geno ren dean oan‘ Sant fans ho (Rega sn nt U's We erty ae eto ‘Grnnn Us twos ea ewan ana ‘taurus tay ry oe onto neuro racescn Cartes sews ty cea AS Aioyan ltowng hw 60 ay wns 9 renew TS ea Lae ote dente ain at 205 crc oe Ses Genres ance os Are nen Now Vor nd oss at Po, op POEs Petia Wideprig ane tence aad wi ay on many tem ere. Lage aspera nae spi: Set. 2018 src tvae skate at ore a genratan ok whe ee con Pod “Ten counties presently hold TPS designalion’ Sudan, South Sudan, Nicaragua, Hai, Hondures, Syria, Somalia, EI Salvador, See tp designation fr fur of hese counnes (Susan, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Hat) hasbeen terminated with 3 Ce pecans Rat ot 12 or 15 menine and one designabon Sto expe over the next sic month. Tie wil be a sknicant xfactor {or regular migration to Canada aver the nox wo y lmpactes counti s e aoe eee ircactd mont wth astousteg increases ln ame Inely begining nthe month leading upto each expiration dat. rH TPS designations are at renewed, the umber of claims for the Wi ante, Pots of ent (POE) inte Qusbee (QUE), Souther Ontaro (SOR), and Pact (PAC) regions wil Tho lnsgetneanes in cane dn Cana over te net vo years ao aly obo seen fom Halon, Honda sured and Synan nationale Clare om nationals of Sudan wl iely begin fo nerease moderately once Shor 5 arden Hovobe 2018, wn bly pathways va “ne iprease cas by okaang Yemeni nationale wi ily be tow given the small numbers of TPS holders, Niaragua and Nepal sorralan'as ld card. Vine tne CBs receives relatively few clams from hese counties, the high suber "a TPs naar may resut in aubetanalnceabes should adtena push factors arse igh evi ot eguar migration botwmen POEs, eepecialy wit ey continue as people Seok to 0 pola Jopriaton thee couny of cenanip. 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