The Regional Landscape: Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan

in 2018

The year 2017 was a vibrant one, Pakistan witnessed dynamic external and internal
developments. The last days of the former year manifested a series of critical events—
defining the contours of Pakistan’s external opportunities and challenges for the year 2018.
Pakistan-US:
The Trump administration- towards the end of 2017 officially released its first National
Security Strategy. It sets four key priorities:

1. Protecting the homeland by securing borders, reforming immigration processes, installing

layered missile defense systems and stopping terrorist threats at their source.
2. Promoting Prosperity by shaping fair and reciprocal economic relations, protecting intellectual
property and embracing America’s energy dominance.
3. Preserving ‘peace through strength’ by modernizing its military.
4. Advancing American influence globally.
The strategy leaves no doubts about the US threat perceptions emanating from Russia,
China, Iran, North Korea and other ‘terrorist groups’.

In the US perception, China seeks to displace the US in the Asia Pacific region. China’s
‘infrastructure investments and trade strategies reinforce its geopolitical aspirations’.

Whereas, Russia seeks to expand its sphere of influence in its bordering regions, ‘Russia’s
control of key energy sources and other infrastructures throughout parts of Europe and
Central Asia’ helps them project their influence.

Some counter strategies to these challenges include encouraging the economic integration
of Central and South Asia to promote prosperity and economic linkages that will bolster
connectivity and trade. Encourage India to increase its economic assistance in the region
and enhance India US defense cooperation.

On a positive note the NSS acknowledges that “the intentions of both nations are not
necessarily fixed and the US stands ready to cooperate across areas of mutual interest with
both countries”.

The strategy only cursorily touches upon Pakistan, adding nothing extraordinary in terms of
expectations. Pakistan’s role is primarily discussed from the Afghan prism and counter-
terrorism efforts.

However, the crux of the US threat perceptions emanating from the region, may present
interesting options for Pakistan. The strategy also mentions that US will encourage Pakistan
to continue demonstrating its responsible stewardship of its nuclear assets and would
enhance trade and investment as Pakistan demonstrates that it will assist the United States
in its counterterrorism goals.

US assumes that Chinese connectivity projects might shape an unfavorable regional order
for its interests. China’s economic clout in the region is increasing and Pakistan is also an
integral part of the BRI initiative, thus it would be unlikely for most regional countries to
entirely align themselves with any one major power.

Pakistan and US must work towards creating non-linear security and economic ties and
Pakistan may broaden the utility of its geostrategic advantages.

A prominent segment in the US blames Pakistan for their unfavorable outcomes in

Afghanistan, and the demands over the safe havens continue. From Pakistan’s viewpoint,
this narrative makes little sense owing to the fact that vast Afghan territories are under the
Taliban control. Pakistani officials also suggest stringent border management to disrupt
future possibilities of any cross border movements and have requested intelligence sharing
to support these allegations.

Recent indications suggest a possible deterioration in Pak-US ties. Reports also state the
possibility of ‘US unilateral actions’ and ‘withholding reimbursements’. Both these notions
would naturally erode bilateral ties, President Trump’s 2018 initiation tweet on Pakistan
doesn’t relieve such speculations. As the US gears up to tackle its broader challenges in the
region, it is also believed that India’s, yet undefined. role might be enhanced in the Afghan
arena; this also raises concerns for Pakistan due to India’s malevolent anti-Pakistan
designs.

However, another sphere in the US seems to understand that Pakistan plays an integral
role for US security concerns in the region. Since the announcement of Trump’s Afghan and
South Asian policy, several high level meetings between the US and Pakistan have
materialized and many speculations have been put to rest.

It is noted that the US may have relaxed some of its ‘Indian origin” demands, the delinking
of LeT from the Haqqani network in the NDAA 2018 may be viewed in this light.

Nonetheless, progress remains slow paced and concluding statements usually entail
‘search for common grounds’.

Pakistan -Afghanistan:
Pakistan wishes to see a stable non-hostile Afghanistan. The Pak-Afghan ties remained
wobbly throughout 2017, a slight improvement was almost always followed by a series of
blame game events. Despite, the cross border infiltrations and often unpromising rhetoric of
the Afghan Government; Pakistan on its part initiated several high level openings with the
Afghan Government. The Pakistani security establishment continues to propose enhanced
bilateral security mechanisms; the recent being “Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for
Solidarity”.Aspirations to enhance connectivity and trade with Afghanistan also remain
desirable. Recently, China hosted an important China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral
initiative aimed at countering terrorism along with trade and connectivity cooperation. There
are talks of China extending the CPEC olive branch to Afghanistan.NUG policy is largely
driven by the US and there is also Indian influence. Pakistan must focus on thwarting any
hostilities stemming from this front and it needs to see how it could broaden the scope of its
relations with Afghanistan beyond the issues of border management – especially as China
enhances its economic and development weight in Afghanistan.

Pakistan-India:
Along the Eastern flank, stands an aggressive India. The Pak-India ties remained at a
stagnant low throughout 2017.

Presently, India and US find natural allies in one another to some extent, and India also
maintains good economic ties with its frenemy China. India is looking at three directions
simultaneously; far east, up north and to the west.

Indian actions suggest that it would be unwilling to forsake security for economics and vice
versa in its approaches. India may not disrupt its economic ties with China, India may not
engage in agendas that may entirely put it at odds with Russia, India may not assume a
military role in Afghanistan. Several prominent Indian voices remain concerned about
India’s regional isolation that may emerge if it severs ties with key regional players.

India may possibly choose to enhance focus on US led Far East alliances that harmonize
security and economic interests of the key players and secure India from entangling itself in
any significant crossfires.

India may however, assist US to some extent in coercing Pakistan to serve their China
centric concerns, and seek to enhance its leverage against China. Pakistan must reverse
any such approaches. Pakistan has often exhibited its willingness to engage in meaningful
bilateral talks with India, these overtures have not been reciprocated so far.

Pakistan even granted a visit permission to the arrested Indian spy’s family – on
humanitarian grounds. This gesture garnered little appreciation from India and instead the
following day Indian forces initiated provocations along the LoC and began airing false
claims of ‘surgical operations’.

Towards the last days of the year, an important development that took place was a reported
meeting between Pakistan’s NSA Lt-Gen (retd) Nasser Khan Janjua and Indian NSA Ajit
Doval,— the context and future outcome of this meeting is yet to be seen.

India would watch the regional developments closely, Pakistan must too. India is unlikely to
place itself at complete odds with key regional players in the long run, thus Pakistan must
avoid getting caught in any trap and must continue to watch Indian policies towards Russia,
China, Iran, the Arab World and explore where it can find common economic and energy
connectivity grounds.
Pakistan and the broader region:
Pakistan recently hosted important 6 nation talks that included speakers from Pakistan,
Afghanistan, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey, to explore security and economic ties.
Pakistan’s ties with China, Russia and Turkey remained on a positive trajectory in 2017.
This is a must for the nation’s energy security and economic prosperity.

The Middle East arena is undergoing interesting configurations. Three broad spheres
appear to have emerged; a ‘dominant Arab bloc’, and two ‘non-Arab spheres’ shaping fast
under Turkish and Iranian initiatives. Some Arab countries such as Qatar presently find
themselves in closer alignment with the non-Arab regional powers.

Pakistan maintains close ties with key players across the Middle East Region. As the region
remains tumultuous Pakistan would have to balance these ties with vigilance and utilize
these shifts for its own national interests.

The Iran-Saudi relationship deteriorated in 2017, it is predicated that the trend-stoked by the
US may continue in the near future. The year-end manifested a precarious political situation
in Iran, because of ongoing nation-wide ‘anti-government protests’.

Owing to sanctions, Iran’s economic health remains restrained and it continues to face
pressures of external forces that ‘prefer a regime change’. Iran’s peace and stability is
important for Pakistan and the overall regional connectivity plans. Despite some low points
due to some border issues, both nations remained engaged to find common grounds for
security cooperation, given the close geographical links this trend must continue. The
COAS’ recent visit to Iran had a positive impact.

Pakistan maintains some concerns regarding Indian activities targeted against Pakistan
from Iran; both Iran and Pakistan must proceed with cooperation and caution and harness
their geostrategic advantages.

Pakistan also has its name deeply linked to the Saudi led IMCTC initiative and it maintains
close security ties with the Kingdom. Balancing Iran-and Saudi ties requires creative
approaches.

Terrorism and Insurgency:

The political instabilities across the Middle East and Afghanistan continue to give space for
the forces of terror to thrive. The biggest concern of 2017 was the talk of IS trying to
entrench its foothold in Afghanistan. The actual strength, capabilities and ‘origins’ of IS-K in
Afghanistan is a vastly debated matter.At the start of 2017, US tried to ‘downplay’ the IS-K
crisis but the regional players remain deeply concerned. The initial US assessments
suggested that the regional players – Russia in particular – are overplaying the threat to
undermine US efforts and ‘justify’ their new approach towards Taliban.

As the year progressed, key US officials slightly shifted from the former narrative and began
terming IS-K as a rebranded TTP, that is working in collusion with groups such as IMU. It is
believed that these regional terror groups are hoping to attract support of the main IS core
to Afghanistan.

Pakistan has dismantled and cleared its territory of such groups, it continues to vigilantly
defeat any residual threats. However, the problem continues to brew in Afghanistan, apart
from Taliban, other groups such as TTP also maintain a foothold in Afghanistan. The IS-K
and Taliban are reportedly fighting one another; it is also believed the allegations of regional
support to Taliban is closely linked to this phenomenon.

The year-end witnessed a series of tragic terror attacks in Afghanistan – claimed by IS. The
attack on a church in Quetta was also claimed by IS.

Two possible outcomes of the current situation are likely: IS-K engaging Taliban in an
attrition strategy, resulting in the outcome of IS-K establishing a stronger foothold in
Afghanistan. Second, is an equally alarming scenario that may emerge if any shred of
cooperation takes place between IS-K and other forces. Afghanistan is a war torn country,
apart from ‘genuine ideological inclinations’, these groups often serve as a source of
sustenance for many. The various groups may compete in utilizing various tools to enhance
recruitments. These conflicts find themselves further exacerbated owing to Afghanistan’s
assortment of ethno-political conflicts.

Regional security and economics are deeply interlinked. Afghanistan’s political instability
paves the way for forces of terror to thrive and positions key regional players in a precarious
situation— all this also provides a space for states to run their proxy conflicts.

Apart from the menace of terror, countries such as China and Pakistan also remain
concerned about the patronage being provided to separatist terror groups whereas Russia
is concerned about the overall security of Central Asia. Yet, there is a regional
understanding over the importance of US presence in the convoluted Afghan arena. The US
too, is unlikely to leave in the foreseeable future. Thus, key players must now move towards
some meaningful grounds of cooperation.

Former Ambassador Ashraf Jehangir Qazi in his recent article rightly notes that “The
potential of Pakistan is enormous. But it has been consistently wasted and is becoming
irrelevant. Similarly, Pakistan’s location is strategically important. But if this is not made an
asset it becomes a liability”
Pakistan stands at an important juncture, the broader East is rapidly changing, its
challenges can be transformed into opportunities and vice versa.

Pakistan must watch various trends and developments and devise proactive and creative
foreign policies especially in managing its ties with US-China, Iran-Saudi Arabia, India and
Afghanistan. Pakistan must also focus on improving internal governance– let the rule of law
prevail and refrain from squandering national attention on fruitless political contentions. The
US-Pakistan relationship has entered a critical stage after President Trump’s surprising and
undiplomatic tweet—diplomacy needs to shift into high gear to salvage a relationship that is
important for both countries.